The Philadelphia 76ers will select Ben Simmons with the No. 1 overall pick, according to reports.
But are they making the right decision?
Should they be taking Brandon Ingram instead? And are the Kevin Durant comparisons accurate?
"If I were drafting, I would take Brandon Ingram No. 1," Dick Vitale said in a recent radio interview. "I think he's got Kevin Durant all over him. In three years I think Ingram will turn out to be the better pro. I think Simmons is very good but Ingram will be the better pro."
Although the comparisons to Durant are lofty, Vitale is not alone in his vision for Ingram. ESPN Analytics recently released draft projections for every college prospect over his first five NBA seasons. Ingram is expected to be the top player in the 2016 class, and he is the most likely to play at the level of an All-Star during that time.
What do the statistical model, Vitale and others see in Ingram?
Young and improving
At 18 years and nine months, Ingram enters the draft as the youngest college prospect in Chad Ford's Top 100. In comparison, Simmons, who is also leaving after his freshman season, will be 20 years old in July.
Age is a major factor when projecting prospects. If Buddy Hield had been evaluated as a freshman, he probably would not have been drafted, as he would have been seen as an erratic guard who could not shoot (23.8 percent from 3-point range) or defend. Hield blossomed into an elite shooter, and scouts expect similar (though not such drastic) improvement from young players as they enter the NBA.
Ingram already has begun his rapid improvement in one season at Duke. At the start of the season, Ingram looked weak and lost; he was 15-of-40 from the field with more turnovers (8) than assists (7) in Duke's first four games, resulting in his removal from the starting lineup in the 2K Classic title game.
Fast-forward four months: Ingram was named ACC Freshman of the Year and posted three efficient 20-point games in the NCAA tournament. His offensive rating steadily improved throughout the season and he proved to be a reliable defender as the season went on.
In comparison, Simmons put up superb numbers at LSU, numbers that were often more efficient than Ingram's, but he started fast and did not show significant improvement as the season went on or the competition got tougher.
Versatility
In today's space-and-pace era of the NBA, teams value players who can guard multiple positions and stretch the court. Although Simmons and Ingram are both dynamic defenders with the versatility to play multiple positions, Ingram comes with the added ability to shoot from deep range.
It just so happens that shooting is one of Philadelphia's greatest needs heading into the draft. The Sixers had the fourth-worst effective field goal percentage in the NBA, and after accounting for the difficulty of their shots, no team was less efficient on jump shots.
As a freshman, Ingram shot 40 percent on jump shots and made 80 3-pointers in 195 attempts (41 percent). Simmons' struggles with his jump shot have been well-documented; he shot 31 percent on jumpers, with one made 3-pointer in three attempts at LSU.
At 6-foot-9 with a 7-foot-3 wingspan, Ingram can guard multiple positions and handle the ball, which are both skills that Simmons possesses. But Ingram does not need the ball in his hands to be effective, which makes him a better option to fit more seamlessly into today's game.
High floor
Ingram may not ever reach the level of Durant, but it's unlikely that any prospect in this class will ascend those heights. Instead, Ingram enters the league with relatively few question marks beyond his frail frame.
ESPN Analytics player projections provide a risk profile for every college player in this draft, identifying the percentage chance that each will play at the level of an All-Star, starter, bench player or bust. Ingram and Simmons have similar upside, but Simmons' floor is lower with a significantly higher chance of being a bust.
Jay Bilas has a similar viewpoint. He writes that Ingram's potential "is not quite as high as Simmons', but there is less risk because of his jumper."
At the top of the draft, the 76ers may be looking for the player with the most potential, but after years of disappointment they may simply want a player who won't wash out of the league. While Simmons posted superb statistical numbers in college, his shooting remains a concern, and a potential transition to point guard appears extremely risky.
No model is 100 percent accurate, and Simmons may prove to be a better player in 10 years. But according to our analysis, Ingram is a safer option who would fill a great need for the 76ers.