Every day leading up to the draft, on every team in the league, NBA scouts, executives, head coaches and ownership meet in their draft war rooms hashing out who the best players in the draft are. Often the differences among them are minuscule. But on draft night, they have one pick and have to choose between Player A and Player B.
We've asked Jay Bilas and Chad Ford, our two resident NBA draft experts, to look at their personal lists, find areas where there are discrepancies and make the case for the player they have rated higher.
We tackled point guards on Thursday. Today, we take a look at the wings.
1. Justise Winslow vs. Mario Hezonja
Bilas on Winslow: I saw Winslow a couple of times before he got to college, but it wasn't enough to get a real read on him. Then, in the preseason, Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski told me that Winslow was Dwyane Wade. That floored me, because Coach K is not an exaggerator with regard to players. Winslow is strong, super athletic and an attacking wing who can hit from 3-point distance in catch-and-shoot situations.
Winslow is an outstanding defender and can block shots in spectacular fashion at the end of a break. He is excellent in transition and is a great finisher. He needs to work on his handle and his pull-up game, and he could refine his jump shot, but he is the best wing in this draft. Hezonja is bigger and a better shooter, and he really doesn't have a downside. He'll be very good. But so will Winslow.
Ford: If he's like Wade, he should be the top wing off the board. I've been torn all year between the two. I love Winslow; I tend to love players who play with his type of toughness and motor. Players like him do so many things that can't be quantified in the box score. He reminded me more of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist than Wade, however. And that's a compliment. I thought MKG was the second-best player in the draft in 2012. I just wonder whether he has Wade's elite scoring instincts or is quite on par with Wade's explosive athletic ability. In short, I wonder whether he'll be known more for his defense than his offense. If he is, Hezonja will be more valuable. If he's like Wade? He should go ahead of Hezonja.
Ford on Hezonja: It's a little tough to gauge Hezonja. He had received significant playing time until this season, when it was very spotty. I know I'm projecting here. But there is so much to love about him. Positional size. Elite shooting ability. Excellent athleticism. And he plays with an aggressiveness that's rarely found in Europe. It borders on cocky. But I like that.
Shooters must have confidence, and Hezonja is brimming with it. And playing on one of the two or three best teams in Europe in the best league in the world outside the NBA the past few years has propelled his development. Outside the top five of Karl-Anthony Towns, Kristaps Porzingis, Emmanuel Mudiay, D'Angelo Russell and Jahlil Okafor, I think Hezonja has the most star potential of anyone in the draft. He might not get there, but I just don't know how you bet against it.
Bilas: When you watch Hezonja on tape, there are no holes in his game. His athleticism and shooting ability are impressive, and you can tell that he knows how to play. I don't see Hezonja or Winslow failing in the NBA. You can make a fair case that Hezonja is the best wing, but I favor Winslow.
2. Stanley Johnson vs. Kelly Oubre
Bilas on Johnson: This is a tough one, because I really like Oubre as a prospect and as a person. But Johnson is bigger, stronger and more prepared to play right away. He is built like a linebacker and is very good in transition, on the glass and driving the ball. Johnson is not what I would call a natural player. Rather, he is a natural athlete. The one area where Johnson can excel is on defense. He is an NBA-ready wing who plays hard, and has the tools in every area except in shooting the ball. Johnson has a fairly low release point, but he has been working on his shot. He actually shot a decent percentage at Arizona.
Ford: I agree with everything you say here, with the possible exception of Johnson being a natural athlete. I guess that can mean a lot of things, but one thing that really stood out to me all season is that while Johnson is huge and athletic, he really lacks explosion. He's not fast-twitch, and I think that affected his finishing at the basket. He was used to bullying everyone in high school, and that won't happen in the NBA. And although I think he's a great competitor, he had a bad habit of slacking defensively when things weren't going his way offensively. That may change with maturity, but there was a reason he was on the bench on occasion in Arizona. Johnson is a very safe pick. He'll be in the league for a while. But I question whether he has the upside to be a very good starter.
Ford on Oubre: I think the theme here is going to be sure things versus upside. Oubre is all about upside. You watch video of when he was with Kansas, and it would be hard to put together a 10-minute highlight reel. There were moments, but they weren't very consistent. Nevertheless, I'm intrigued by the 7-foot-2 wing span, the smooth athleticism, the fluid lefty jumper and the improvement Oubre showed defensively and especially this past summer.
I think he hasn't had the coaching or development of Johnson and it showed this year. He wasn't ready for college basketball and he's clearly not ready for the NBA. But if he keeps working as hard as he has been the past few months, he will get there. The raw talent is too high. Johnson will be better the next two or three years, but after that I think Oubre has a higher ceiling.
Bilas: I agree that Oubre can be better down the road and has the higher ceiling. But I like the things that I know Johnson can do and the player he is. Plus, I don't discount that Johnson can improve, and his ceiling is pretty high. You can flip a coin on this one.
3. Devin Booker vs. R.J. Hunter
Bilas on Booker: Booker is one of the best, if not the best, shooters in this draft. He has size, length and a quick, solid release that is repeatable. Booker's shots were primarily catch-and-shoot, but in high school and in the Bahamas, he proved that he also could put the ball on the deck. Booker is far more athletic than he gets credit for. I like the way he moves off screens, and that he can also attack and drive a closeout. I think he is an underrated defender, and he can be far more than just a shooter. Hunter has crazy range and is a conscience-free shooter, but I see Booker as being more versatile.
Ford: Interesting. Obviously I agree that he can really shoot. And you might be right about everything else as well. Given the role he was asked to play at Kentucky, I do think we didn't see everything he can do. But that goes both ways. There are very few shooters who had as many open looks as Booker did this year thanks to the talent that was on the floor with him. If Hunter had played at UK and Booker at Georgia State, would Booker still be the higher-ranked player? I personally don't think so, which is why I have Hunter slightly ahead. But if a team takes Booker first, I can't argue with it. He's going to hit shots. But versatility? I still lean Hunter's direction on that.
Ford on Hunter: Forget about Hunter's poor shooting numbers this past season. He can shoot it with deep range. He took almost all of his shots fading away with defenders draped all over him and still shot 31 percent from 3. It's the other parts of his game that intrigue me. He's long and became a disruptive defender this past season, averaging two steals per game. He also showed a knack for passing the basketball and he improved his assist average to 3.6 per game. I worry about his strength and his ability to get his own shot thanks to just average athletic ability, but his basketball IQ is very high and he has unusual length for his position. After he played with defenses draped all over him for three seasons, the basket will look much bigger in the NBA.
Bilas: Hunter has a bit of a Reggie Miller look to him, very thin but he can really shoot it from deep. He can run off screens and he can get his shot off quickly, but he is not a great athlete, which can be an issue on both ends of the floor. I agree that Hunter's shooting numbers last season are not a major concern. He can shoot it. Hunter is a specialist, as is Booker, but Booker can do more things well.