NBA Insiders Amin Elhassan and Bradford Doolittle break down the draft profile, needs and potential picks of the 14 teams eligible for the NBA draft lottery this year. With some help from Chad Ford's Big Board, we take a look at the Philadelphia 76ers.
Personnel needs:
The analytical problem with the Sixers is that the incredible talent churn that has grinded on and on under Sam Hinkie makes it exceedingly difficult to identify just what is being constructed. The talent part we get -- don't get stuck on second-tier talent or worse, and keep flipping and flipping until a real foundation is created. That's the theory anyway. After last season's trade of Michael Carter-Williams, right now it's hard to know if Hinkie believes any of his on-hand talents are true keepers. He probably does. Nerlens Noel has the makings of a defensive superstar and improved offensively as the 2014-15 season progressed.
We don't know about Joel Embiid yet, but he's less than a year removed from being a top-of-the-lottery talent in a strong draft. While there is promise elsewhere in guys such as Robert Covington and Isaiah Canaan, realistically we know Hinkie will move guys like that if it improves his asset portfolio. So if the foundation appears to be Noel and Embiid, then you are tempted to say the Sixers need everything but a young, athletic big man. But with the consensus top two players in this draft both fitting that bill, it would not be at all surprising if the Sixers added a third guy to that ensemble.
Major need: Right now, Canaan looks better suited to a bench-spark/instant-offense role than starting, so the Sixers need a primary player to focus their collection of perimeter talent. How this role is eventually filled will be crucial to whatever form the Sixers ultimately take, because this is the guy who is going to have the ball in his hands. The Sixers have ranked last in offensive efficiency and turnover rate for two years running and desperately need a high-level decision-maker.
Quiet need: For a team so focused on 3-point shooting, the Sixers are woefully inefficient inside the arc, finishing last in 2-point shooting at 44.9 percent. They also didn't get to the line much, so they need some efficiency in the paint. Embiid should help in this area, as will continued improvement from Noel, but they need help.
Not a need: With Noel and Jerami Grant leading the way, the Sixers posted the second-highest block rate in the NBA. Now Embiid enters the picture, and he might be a better rim protector than both of them. The Sixers need a lot of things, but shot-blocking isn't one of them.
Depth chart
Jobs in jeopardy: Most of them, really. But in particular, the Sixers are probably ready to move on from restricted free agent Henry Sims, who has gotten a lot of run over these past two wretched seasons. Thankfully for Sixer fans, the collection of young bigs Hinkie built has extinguished further need of Sims' services.
Don't mess with it: There's Noel and Embiid on the interior, Canaan in the backcourt rotation, and Covington as a long, deep-shooting wing. Grant showed a lot of defensive promise as a combo-ish forward, and for better or worse, Furkan Aldemir owns one of the few guaranteed contracts on the Sixers.
What free agency could solve
Nothing. This team is not ready to splurge on a major free agent. However, if Luc Mbah a Moute and Jason Richardson depart via unrestricted free agency, the Sixers will need a veteran voice or two to help coach Brett Brown keep things pointed in the right direction. These guys can be over the hill, and even a little overpaid given the Sixers' sparkly clean cap sheet. We're talking guys such as former Sixers Willie Green or Elton Brand. Or you can keep Richardson around, since he's stuck it out this long.
How they draft
Where they draft well: This will be Hinkie's third draft as the architect of the Sixers. Given his habit of collecting second-round draft picks like some people collect shot glasses, he's already taken 10 players on draft night. Of those, only two will likely appear in a Sixers uniform in 2015-16 -- Embiid and Grant. The group of departed includes Elfrid Payton, who was flipped on draft night last year for the rights to premium Eurostash Dario Saric. After watching Payton's progress in Orlando, you have to think he would look pretty good as the aforementioned decision-maker the Sixers need. But Carter-Williams might have, as well, and he was traded because of shooting problems, a malady Payton shares. Anyway, where does Hinkie draft well? Who knows? His young talent has been too green, too injured and too fungible to draw any conclusions.
Where they don't draft well: Historically, the Sixers have had bad luck when picking near the top of the draft, but not first overall. Among top-three selections in franchise history are names such as Evan Turner, Shawn Bradley, Keith Van Horn (who was immediately traded for non-elite veterans), Charles Smith and Marvin Barnes, who went on to become great documentary fodder in the ABA. They've picked first twice and hit homers both times, landing Doug Collins in 1973 and Allen Iverson in 1996.
Three best fits
Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Kentucky (Chad Ford Big Board ranking: No. 1): The Sixers could end up with three first-round picks, so we're going to target an ideal for each of those potential selections. Landing Towns would be a win on the talent front, as he's right there with Embiid and Noel in terms of two-way upside. Eventually, though, if they all work out, someone is going to get traded. It might almost be a blessing in disguise if the Sixers are saved from obligation to take the best player available by sticking at No. 3 in the draft order. Then they could just draft Emmanuel Mudiay, who could solve their need for a true alpha-scoring perimeter player, or D'Angelo Russell, who is the better shooter.
Justise Winslow, SF, Duke (No. 6): If the Lakers stay in the top five, the Sixers don't get their pick. If Philly gets lucky, the pick will likely be No. 6, and Winslow is the sixth-ranked prospect on the board. Chad Ford's scouting report on Winslow actually contains the words "total lack of a mid-range game" which in a strange way makes him an ideal Sixer. If he can shoot the 3-ball and defend up to expectation, Winslow can be a long-term fit on the wing in Philly. Croatian wing Mario Hezonja would be another possibility.
Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin (No. 14): The Sixers could also pick at or near No. 11 if the Heat fall out of the top 10 and have to ship their pick to Philadelphia. Dekker's combination of length, athleticism, shooting and experience is a great fit for the Sixers. Dekker's winning pedigree from his time at Wisconsin certainly wouldn't hurt on a team whose youngest players have done a lot of losing recently.
It's a good draft if ...
What they must accomplish: After two years of taking a player who then missed his entire rookie season, Sixer fans would enjoy it if Hinkie took an elite prospect who they actually got to see play right away.
Additional goals: The Sixers have five more second-round picks this year. Five! Hinkie will again be in search of European players to stash and players with a high ceiling who might have been undervalued for various reasons, such as positional fit or physical problems. One second-round possibility the stats like is Florida's Michael Frazier II.