NBA Insiders Amin Elhassan and Bradford Doolittle break down the draft profile, needs and potential picks of the 14 teams eligible for the NBA draft lottery this year. With some help from Chad Ford's Big Board, we take a look at the New York Knicks.
Personnel needs: Everything but a volume-scoring small forward
Major need: No, really. Other than Carmelo Anthony, the cupboard is bare. There are a couple of useful players, like Langston Galloway and Tim Hardaway Jr., but they are just mortar for a structure that has but one brick. The major need is two foundation pieces to team with Anthony.
Quiet need: When your needs are so vast and of the big-picture variety, it's arguable that there are no quiet needs. But if Anthony is the offensive anchor, the Knicks need a counterpart for him on the defensive end. It's not really a "quiet" need.
Not a need: Volume-scoring small forward. Have we emphasized enough that the Knicks, as they stand entering the offseason, consist of Anthony and little else?
Depth chart
Jobs in jeopardy: Sigh. They all are. Except for Anthony's.
Don't mess with it: The Knicks really do have the makings of an energetic, young and inexpensive bench. Galloway, Hardaway, Quincy Acy, Cleanthony Early, Alexey Shved, Shane Larkin, Ricky Ledo and Travis Wear all are under team control and might be worth keeping around. They also are all easily swept aside if Phil Jackson needs the cap space, or uncovers better options.
What free agency could solve
Now we get to the meat of it. The overarching problem and/or solution for the Knicks revolves around Anthony's presence. Last summer, he was wooed by some of the leading contenders in the NBA, but ultimately was persuaded to remain in New York to continue to his career-long pursuit of an NBA title. Anthony turns 31 on May 29 and, after an injury-plagued season, likely is beginning a career downslide. That decline need not be steep -- if healthy, Anthony very well could be an All-Star-caliber player for another three or four years. The problem is that the Knicks aren't going to leap into contention as constructed without a couple of major splashes in the free-agent market. Drafting young players and developing them into championship players takes time Anthony does not have.
If the Knicks truly were a rebuilding team, they would be positioned fairly well. They have the second pick in June, a clean cap sheet beyond Anthony and Jose Calderon, and the aforementioned group of young players, who might well develop into worthy rotation performers. But if Jackson is going to quench Anthony's thirst for title contention, a methodical rebuild won't do. Given these facts, the Knicks should not only be looking to possibly cash in young assets for a second veteran foundation player, but they will first go big-game hunting on the free-agent market. And there is money to spend: around $25 to $30 million if all cap holds and trade exceptions are cleared.
That means New York can max out on a free agent and still have money left over to go after a second- or third-tier guy, or to retain all or most of the young bench. Who should they pursue? The best of the best, regardless of position. Marc Gasol, LaMarcus Aldridge, Kevin Love. Perhaps DeMarcus Cousins, if he's dangled on the trade market. Restricted guys like Jimmy Butler or Kawhi Leonard would be worth a look. Whether anyone is willing to take New York's money is another question. If Jackson strikes out on stars, then his best bet is to go with continuity, draftees and a lot of roster-filling, one-year deals in order to preserve room for a run at Kevin Durant next year.
How they draft
Where they draft well: All things considered, Jackson did pretty well with his first draft after acquiring a pair of second-round picks. Cleanthony Early had an injury-plagued rookie season but nevertheless has rotation potential. Thanasis Antetokounmpo spent the season in the D-League but has the makings of a defensive stopper. That's all we really know about Jackson's drafting proclivities at this point. Before him, the Knicks generally have gotten spotty value from the draft when they've had picks, which hasn't been too often.
Where they don't draft well: The Knicks haven't picked in the lottery since taking Jordan Hill at No. 8 in 2009. If they end up in the top three or so on lottery night, it'll be their highest pick since landing Patrick Ewing in 1986. That worked out pretty well. But there's not a lot of precedent since the ABA-NBA merger for New York picking this high. They did take Michael Ray Richardson at No. 4 in 1978.
Three best fits
Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Kentucky (Chad Ford Big Board ranking: No. 1): Towns is a no-brainer if New York ends up with the top pick. He's not only the consensus top choice among scouting types, but his statistical translations also mark him as the top prospect in the draft. New York has to pick the best player available, and Towns is the best player heading into the draft. Done and done. Even better, as a solid shooter, Towns fits the triangle. And he's a better fit for New York than Jahlil Okafor because of his two-way abilities, an important consideration for a Knicks team that needs defensive anchors.
Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke (No. 2): Most of what we just wrote about Towns holds true for Okafor, whose post game would be a fit for New York's system. It's questions about his defense that differentiate him from Towns. But if the Knicks pick second, Okafor is an nice consolation prize.
D'Angelo Russell, PG, (No. 4): If New York ends up out of the top two, Russell is the guy I like. His ability to both shoot and create offense would slot well next to Anthony. Emmanuel Mudiay would be the other primary consideration, and he's slotted a spot or so higher on most experts' draft boards because of a higher level of athleticism. Mudiay isn't an accomplished jump shooter at this point, which makes him a bit less desirable than Russell for a triangle scheme. However, this brings us back to Jackson's mindset entering the offseason. If he views his first-rounder as an avenue for acquiring a more veteran talent to pair with Anthony at some point in the near future, then perhaps he takes Mudiay regardless of systemic fit -- that is, if he agrees with the draftniks that think Mudiay's athleticism gives him a higher ceiling (and thus better trade value) than Russell, then maybe he goes with potential over polish.
It's a good draft if ...
What they must accomplish: If New York keeps the pick, they won't mess it up as long as Jackson doesn't get too creative. The top guys on the board generally all have the innate abilities to adapt to a triangle offense, though an adjustment would be expected in that regard for any young player. If Jackson somehow is able to parlay this pick and his projected cap space into a bona fide running mate for Anthony, then the draft process would be a rousing success.
Additional goals: The Knicks don't have a second-rounder, and if they can pick one up for cash or spare parts, that would be a good thing. Regardless of Jackson's time frame for transforming the Knicks into contenders, he needs all the assets he can get.