NBA Insiders Amin Elhassan and Bradford Doolittle break down the draft profile, needs and potential picks of the 14 teams eligible for the NBA draft lottery this year. With some help from Chad Ford's Big Board, we take a look at the Detroit Pistons.
Personnel needs:
Big-picture needs exist on both ends of the floor. Detroit hasn't finished better than 14th on offense or 17th on defense since the 2007-08 season. Yeah, it has really been that long. The past season, the Pistons improved markedly on the offensive end after waiving Josh Smith but suffered a proportional backslide on defense. Detroit believes it has its long-term solution in the middle in Andre Drummond and some kind of solution at point guard in the combination of restricted free agent Reggie Jackson and coming-off-major-injury Brandon Jennings. The shooting guard tandem of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Jodie Meeks is both workable and upgradable. Depending on what happens with the unrestricted free agency of Greg Monroe, the Pistons have dire need for permanent solutions for at least one and possibly two starting forwards.
Major need: So much depends on what happens with Monroe's saga, the outcome of which we won't know before draft night. While the frontcourt marriage of Drummond and Monroe has been rocky in its three years, it has also gotten better with time. Nevertheless, the Pistons have been outscored with the duo on the court in all three of Drummond's seasons. Really, though, if Monroe wants to stay, the Pistons would be squandering a valuable asset if they let him walk. In reality, how likely are they to acquire a veteran big man of Monroe's caliber?
If Detroit believes Monroe can be retained, the focus shifts to finding a quality two-way wing. The Pistons have a 10 percent chance of leaping into the top three of the draft on lottery night. If they get in the top two, they have to take one of the elite bigs, which would make the decision on Monroe a bit easier. If the Pistons stay at No. 8, there are several forwards, big and small, who might fit. However it shakes out, you have to think the Pistons will be targeting a forward.
Quiet need: Monroe was really the de facto backup for Drummond the past season, as the young center played about 400 more minutes without Drummond than he did with him. However, the Pistons could use a true backup center as a hedge against Drummond's foul issues and free throw ineptitude.
Not a need: Assuming Jackson is retained and Jennings gets back on the court, the presence of promising third-stringer Spencer Dinwiddie means there won't be any minutes for another point guard on the Pistons' roster next season.
Depth chart
Jobs in jeopardy: Caron Butler and Tayshaun Prince both averaged more than 20 minutes per game, mostly at small forward, despite being firmly in the red in both RPM and WARP. Surely, Detroit can find better solutions, despite the "proven veteran" status of that duo.
Don't mess with it: Drummond's development has been uneven, but he might be the best rebounder in the league, and he does something breathtakingly athletic on an almost nightly basis. Monroe has long been viewed as a cornerstone player, but he is now out of team control. Stan Van Gundy appears to be a fan of Jackson, though it's still not clear he is a playoff-caliber starter, and he might not even be as good as a healthy Jennings.
What free agency could solve
If the Pistons were to walk away from both Monroe and Jackson, they could open up as much cap space ($35 million maximum) as any team this offseason, despite the stretch money that will be allotted to Smith ($5.4 million annually) over the next few years. If Van Gundy and general manager Jeff Bower want to make sweeping changes over the next few months, the opportunity is there. Detroit is not in the top tier of free-agent destinations right now and would have to tiptoe around overpaying the wrong player. It might be better to build through the draft and try to maintain some flexibility after we've seen another year of this core group under Van Gundy.
How they draft
Where they draft well: Although Van Gundy is the big boss, it's front-office veteran Bower who does the day-to-day work. Bower's draft work in New Orleans was poor. His best pick was at No. 21 in 2009, when he took Darren Collison to back Chris Paul up at point guard.
Where they don't draft well: In their first draft in Detroit, Bower and Van Gundy did not have a first-rounder, but they came up with Dinwiddie, who slid on draft boards because of injury issues. In New Orleans, Bower struggled all over the place. He missed on two first-rounders (Nos. 12 and 15) in 2006, with Hilton Armstrong and Cedric Simmons. He missed with No. 13 pick Julian Wright in 2007. In 2008, he took useful big man Darrell Arthur but sold him to Portland for cash. Finally, he then took Cole Aldrich at No. 11 in 2010.
Three best fits
Myles Turner, PF, Texas (Chad Ford Big Board ranking: No. 10): We're assuming here that the Pistons don't leap to the top of the draft. Turner is a perfect fit for Van Gundy's system, with the potential to become a much more athletic but moderately worse-shooting version of Ryan Anderson, who Van Gundy coached in Orlando. Turner is a great pick, whether or not Monroe leaves, though if Detroit is looking to make an immediate leap into the playoffs, he might be a bit raw. But as a second rim-protector who can space the floor on the offensive end and also soak up minutes in the middle when Drummond sits, Turner has an ideal resume for these Pistons.
Frank Kaminsky, C, Wisconsin (No. 13): Like Turner, Kaminsky is a big man who can shoot. But he can also score in the post and is more experienced and ready to contribute. He doesn't have Turner's defensive upside, but he did play on some very stingy Badger teams under Bo Ryan. He could be a sweet addition to Van Gundy's big man rotation.
Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin (No. 14): Stylistically, Dekker could better fill the key role Kyle Singler vacated in Detroit when he was dealt to Oklahoma City in the Jackson trade. There aren't a lot of shooting, quick forwards in the range Detroit is likely to select, so you do have to wonder if Dekker would be a great value pick. It depends, of course, on how Van Gundy and Bower have scouted him. If Justise Winslow or Mario Hezonja are available at Detroit's slot, it would be tough to pass up either small forward prospect.
It's a good draft if ...
What they must accomplish: Detroit adds a legit shooter who can be a plus defender. Too often the past season, Van Gundy had to choose between one or the other with his lineups.
Additional goals: The Pistons have the No. 38 pick, which is a nice slot in any draft and is where Detroit found Dinwiddie last year. He is the prototype for what you target: a first-round talent who is being undervalued for some reason or another. Even without knowing who might slide out of the first round, there are some nice shooters who should be on the board, such as Florida's Michael Frazier II or Oregon's Joseph Young. Van Gundy can always use shooters.