To help readers get to know top NBA draft prospects, Insider offers a 360-degree look at many of them in a concise and thorough scouting report featuring three expert perspectives: Kevin Pelton (analytics), Fran Fraschilla (scouting) and Chad Ford (NBA front offices). Here's a look at Stanley Johnson.
WARP Projection: 1.9 (21st among players in top 100)
Comparables: Luol Deng (97.9), Thaddeus Young (96.8), Marvin Williams (96.5), Carmelo Anthony (95.7)
Strengths: Steal percentage
Weaknesses: None
The analytics perspective
Among the group of freshmen forwards expected to head to the NBA, which also includes Kansas' Kelly Oubre and Duke's Justise Winslow, Johnson boasts the best WARP projection. Although shooting was touted as a weakness, Johnson hit a respectable 37.1 percent from beyond the arc and backed it up with 74.2 percent free throw shooting. Instead, despite his size and strength, Johnson's offensive issue was finishing. As Fran will explore, he made just 52.7 percent of his shots around the rim, according to Hoop-Math.com.
Johnson didn't make a huge dent in the box score elsewhere. He was a fairly average rebounder for a small forward and blocked shots at a below-average rate for the position. The exception is Johnson's solid steal rate, projected second-best among players 6-foot-7 or taller in Chad's top 100. Historically, steal rate has been a good indicator of NBA success.
-- Kevin Pelton
The scouting perspective
Stanley Johnson is a bully on the basketball court. ESPN.com's No. 7-ranked high school player in the Class of 2014 has been since his freshman year at Mater Dei High School.
The 6-foot-7, 245-pound freshman at Arizona, who has been compared to Metta World Peace, Kawhi Leonard and, yes, even LeBron James because of his size and strength, was the Wildcats' leading scorer and second-leading rebounder. The big question is: Can he continue his physical ways at the NBA level?
Like every other likely lottery pick, Johnson has a lot of strengths and some areas of his game that need improvement. But one of his huge advantages is he will play his entire rookie year as a 19-year-old, as he doesn't turn 20 until May 29, 2016. The level of success for teenagers recently selected in the lottery is high.
Johnson, at the NBA level, will be an average athlete for the small forward position. He does not have great lateral quickness, which affects him as a perimeter defender, and being an average two-footed jumper has led to his being a 40 percent shooter at the rim in half-court situations, according to Hoop-Math.com.
What stands out to me about Johnson is his high energy level. He has always been an aggressive, attacking player.
In transition, Johnson is dangerous. For his size, he is a very good ball handler in the open court.
In the half-court, Johnson's aggressiveness sometimes gets him in trouble. Early in the season, he was running over defenders in the lane because he tended to play out of control in traffic. Not surprisingly for a freshman, he had more turnovers than assists.
A major part of Johnson's success is that his aggressiveness manifests itself in many trips to the foul line. He is drawing 6.1 fouls per 40 minutes, according to kenpom.com. That has turned into 178 free throw attempts so far this season.
Where Johnson has shown improvement is his outside shooting. He made 37 percent of his 3-point attempts (though that dipped to 29 percent in Pac-12 play), and he made 44 percent of his 2-point jump shots, according to Hoop-Math.com.
Some have questioned his shooting stroke, but I see nothing in it that can't be corrected. First of all, his form is compact and has few moving parts, which makes it easily repeatable. When he finishes with a high follow-through, the arc of his shot improves his accuracy.
Eventually, at the NBA level, he will learn that spot-up shooting will become a strength. I would love to see him trust his one-dribble or two-dribble pull-up jump shot because finishing at the rim early in his NBA career will be challenging.
One area where Johnson can take advantage of his strength in the NBA would be in developing a post-up game, a la the Blazers' 6-foot-5 Wesley Matthews. Because Arizona has a plethora of players who clog the lane on offense, Johnson has been used in post-up situations in less than four percent of his offensive possessions, according to Synergy.
Perimeter defense will present another challenge for Johnson.
First of all, there were many possessions in Arizona's half-court defense early this past year on which Johnson had a lack of concentration with regard to team defense. Although that was an issue, it is a very common occurrence with young players, and it is something he can work to improve if he wants to play in the NBA.
The more important concern to me is lateral foot speed, which will affect his ability to defend dynamic NBA small forward athletes.
Luckily for Johnson, in his one season at Arizona under Miller, he received a defensive tutorial. Once he gets to the NBA and recognizes how critical it will be for him, he will embrace the chance to improve defensively.
I have been around Johnson at various All-Star camps, talked with him and talked with people who have coached him and know him. He has a couple major intangibles.
First of all, he is a proven winner. He is the only player to win four straight upper-division state titles in California, with a record of 135-5. He has also won three FIBA Gold medals for USA Basketball.
Secondly, he is a gym rat and worker. He has soaked up a season's worth of great coaching under Miller and his staff at Arizona. That type of coaching will continue in the NBA, so Johnson will have many opportunities to smooth out his weaknesses. Besides, he won't be the only NBA rookie with work to do.
-- Fran Fraschilla
The front-office perspective
Johnson came into his freshman season at Arizona with a rep of being the best wing prospect in the country. He won four straight state championships in high school, had the body of Metta World Peace as an 18-year-old and was already known for his toughness and maturity on the court.
For the most part, Johnson has lived up to the hype. He was Arizona's leading scorer as a freshman and has shown a fearlessness with the basketball that's rare for a player his age. Add in that he was actually a much better shooter than advertised, and Johnson looks like a lottery lock. But is he the best wing in the draft?
There are some holes. Scouts worry he isn't an elite athlete, that he struggles to finish at the rim and, despite a reputation as an elite defender, he takes plays off. They think he'll be in the league a long time, but some scouts wonder if he'll be more of a solid player than superstar. Look for Johnson to go as high as six and as low as 12.
"I want to love him," one GM said. "My scouts all loved him in high school. I've watched him live four times and every time come away with the same thought: 'He's pretty good.' But pretty good isn't going to make you a great NBA player. He's a good athlete, a good shooter, a good defender, a good motor. He has a great body but doesn't always use any of those skills to his advantage. If he were the athlete that [Justise] Winslow was, I'd love him. But he isn't, and I just feel he'll be pretty good. If those are your expectations, great. If they're higher, I think you're going to be disappointed."
-- Chad Ford