Is Julius Randle overrated?

ESPN Insider's Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton return to provide the kind of discussions that are happening in front offices around the NBA -- where scouts and statistical experts are breaking down NBA draft prospects using their "eyes, ears and numbers."

Chad Ford's Top 100 | Big Board 5.0

1. What is a red flag for Kentucky's Julius Randle?

Kevin Pelton: For Julius Randle, one stat stands out above all others: steals. In 525 minutes this season, the Kentucky freshman has recorded just five steals. Five! And four of those have come in the past two weeks. It's difficult to understand how a player as talented as Randle could possibly not have more steals; it seems like he'd come up with a handful simply by accident.

This might not seem like a big deal. After all, how important are steals for a power forward? Historically, however, steal rate has outsized importance in predicting how well prospects will translate to the NBA. Consider this: When steal rate is adjusted by position average, the top 25 prospects in my NCAA database have on average outproduced their position in the draft by 1.1 WARP. This group includes draft-day steals like DeJuan Blair, Kenneth Faried, Danny Granger, Paul Millsap and Jameer Nelson.

By contrast, the 25 worst players in position-adjusted steal rate have on average produced 0.5 WARP fewer than expected based on their draft position. The lottery picks among this group (Joe Alexander, Ed Davis, Ike Diogu, Brandon Knight, Alex Len, Shabazz Muhammad and Hasheem Thabeet) have generally been disappointments. So, Chad, what are scouts telling you about Randle's conspicuous lack of steals?

Chad Ford: Well, they're probably running for the hills after seeing those comps. Joe Alexander and Hasheem Thabeet? Yikes.

2. Does that mean Randle is overrated?

Ford: Before the season began, many scouts saw Randle as the second-best prospect in the draft, a prototypical power forward who could score from anywhere on the floor and was a beast on the boards.

For the most part, he's had a great freshman season. He's been a double-double machine for Kentucky and carried a huge load on his shoulders. His motor runs hot on virtually every play (at least on the offensive end).

However, his stock has slid this season -- though not primarily because of his steal rate. The stat guys in the league have all been buzzing about that, but the more traditional scouts have been concerned with Randle's struggles against long, athletic bigs. In high school, Randle used his strength and motor to overpower people. He still does that some nights at the college level, but his 50 percent shooting mark at the rim isn't great for a player with his reputation. Plus, he has struggled when matched up against other long, athletic big men. Given that's what he'll face every night in the NBA, that's a concern.

Scouts also have been disappointed that we really haven't seen Randle's perimeter game shine this season. Nearly 50 percent of his shots this season have been jumpers, but he's hitting just 36 percent of his 2-point jumpers and just 11 percent from 3-point range. So given the buzz about Randle's ability to stretch the floor coming into the season, that's a bit of a disappointment, too.

Pelton: Right. A stroll through my database of NCAA translations also indicates that WARP projections give steal rate adequate weight without any adjustments. That's important because it means a low steal rate can be overcome by elite performance elsewhere. Such was the case with Ryan Anderson, the most extreme outlier in terms of steals. Prior to Len last season, Anderson's college steal rate was the single lowest relative to position of any player who reached the NBA in the past decade. Yet Anderson's WARP projection still rated third best in his draft, and he's exceeded it during his pro career, becoming an analytics darling.

Part of the issue is that the rest of Randle's offensive numbers have been merely good, not dominant. Translated to its NBA equivalent, his 49.9 percent 2-point mark is only average, and his turnover rate is a major weakness. Randle has been elite on the glass, but more was expected of a possible No. 1 pick.

Ford: It's good that you are pointing out that when you are looking at these WARP projections, it's one tool of many that a front office uses in evaluating a draft pick. No one single factor goes into drafting or not drafting a player.

Something like a low steal rate becomes a sort of a red flag that causes good front offices to dig deeper to understand why it's so low and to give players a second and third look.

And we also have to be careful about outliers. Just because Anderson bucks the trend here is not evidence alone that we should ignore that. If the vast majority of highly ranked power forward prospects with low steal rates have struggled in the NBA, you don't ignore that because there was one or two guys who didn't.

When the numbers and eyes and ears all align, it's easy to project a player. But when they are at odds with one another, it's a signal to be careful.

With that said, it's been assumed all season the Randle was the best power forward prospect in the draft. But if the stat guys aren't impressed, and the scouts are a little disappointed, is there another guy who might be a better choice?

3. Which power forward might be a better NBA prospect than Randle?

Pelton: I find myself leaning toward Indiana's Noah Vonleh as the better freshman power forward. On a per-minute basis, their numbers are fairly similar. Randle is the better scorer, but there are a couple of reasons to favor Vonleh. First, because he reclassified, Vonleh is almost nine months younger than Randle and won't turn 19 until next August. Second, his steal rate is more than three times better than Randle's and solidly above average for a big man.

Vonleh might not have the "star" potential of Randle, but I tend to believe he's the stronger bet to be a solid contributor in the NBA.

Ford: It's not just the numbers that are starting to lean toward Vonleh. In the past week, I've had several NBA scouts tell me that they are now leaning toward him over Randle. That's a major change. Vonleh has been regarded as a top-10 pick, but this is the first time I'm hearing teams project him as a potential top-five pick -- and getting drafted ahead of Randle.

Why? He's bigger and longer, which are two factors that scouts obsess about. He also has, in the past few weeks, stretched his game out into the perimeter. In his past four games, Vonleh is 7-for-9 from behind the arc. His stroke looks really pure and he's beginning to look comfortable on the perimeter.

He also has a higher rebounding rate than Randle on the defensive boards. Plus, he shoots nearly 20 percent better from the field at the rim (70.1 percent to Randle's 50.2), he's more accurate on his 2-point jumpers (40.9 percent to 36.6) and much more accurate in his 3-point shooting (55.6 percent to Randle's 11).

So Vonleh is younger, taller, longer, shoots better from the field and possesses a better rebounding rate than Randle. The question we really should be asking ourselves is: "Why exactly is Randle ahead of Vonleh on the Big Board?"