The UFC flyweight title has sat vacant since December. That changes Saturday as Joseph Benavidez and Deiveson Figueiredo face off to determine who will become only the third flyweight champion in UFC history.
Benavidez fought for the inaugural UFC flyweight title back in 2012. He came up short in that fight against Demetrious Johnson and fell once again in a rematch the next year. Since the second loss to Johnson, he has gone 9-1 to earn another shot. Figueiredo burst onto the scene in 2017 and has gone 6-1 in the Octagon.
Fans might be more familiar with Benavidez, but Figueiredo brings a unique blend of skills that add some interesting wrinkles to this fight. The following examines the biggest statistical differences between the two fighters and highlights multiple paths to victory for each competitor.
The stats that favor Figueiredo
Figueiredo has fought seven times in the Octagon compared with Benavidez's 25-fight run in the UFC and WEC. However, Figueiredo has made quite the impression in those seven fights, and that is why he has a legitimate shot at knocking off the veteran and walking out with the title.
Despite competing at 125 pounds, Figueiredo has showcased impressive power. He has scored five knockdowns in only seven fights and averaged 0.99 knockdowns per 15 minutes. While that is an above-average knockdown rate, it is perhaps more impressive that he has scored those knockdowns with a relatively small number of significant strikes. In his UFC career, he has landed only 128 standing significant strikes (104 at distance and 24 in the clinch), which means that he is landing a knockdown for every 25.6 landed significant strikes from the standing position. Benavidez has been dropped only twice in his UFC/WEC career, but Figueiredo has unusual power for this weight and could catch him on the feet.
Figueiredo also averages 2.4 submission attempts per 15 minutes of fight time, which is the highest submission rate among ranked flyweights. In his last fight, Figueiredo picked up his first submission victory in the UFC as he forced former "The Ultimate Fighter" winner Tim Elliott to tap with a first-round guillotine choke.
He has also been successful when it comes to forcing his opponents to the ground. Figueiredo averages 1.78 takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.22 guard passes per takedown. Benavidez has strong takedown defense from a percentage perspective as he has stopped 66% of the takedown attempts against him. However, he has struggled to stay off the mat against persistent wrestlers, having allowed his opponents to land 1.75 takedowns per 15 minutes. Figueiredo might not have success immediately with his wrestling, but if he stays on Benavidez throughout the fight, the takedowns will likely come.
Only 5% of Benavidez's absorbed significant strikes have come on the ground, but Figueiredo might be able to get to him with his ground striking. Thirty-seven percent of the Brazilian's landed significant strikes have come on the ground, and he averages 0.91 significant ground strikes per minute.
Figueiredo could easily make an impact with his power striking on the feet or work for submissions on the floor after scoring takedowns and landing ground strikes.
The stats that favor Benavidez
Benavidez's advantages in this fight are not limited to experience. The biggest difference between these two comes in terms of striking output. Benavidez averages 10.22 attempted significant strikes per minute compared with only 4.63 per minute for Figueiredo. The good news for Figueiredo is that he lands 52% of his significant strike attempts, so he still averages 2.44 significant strikes landed per minute. Benavidez is not nearly as accurate; he lands only 33% of his significant strike attempts, but, thanks to his liberal output, he lands 3.45 per minute.
While being busy in terms of striking is often a solid game plan in MMA, it is not normally wise to miss that many attempts. Swinging and missing creates counterstriking opportunities for opponents, and a fighter with power, like Figueiredo, could easily take advantage. However, Benavidez has been able to maintain solid defense despite the output. He avoids 63% of his opponents' significant strike attempts and absorbs only 2.53 significant strikes per minute. Even if Benavidez's inaccurate approach to striking creates some counter opportunities for Figueiredo, his striking defense should be up to the challenge.
Seventy-nine percent of Benavidez's landed significant strikes have come at distance, and that might be the position that ends up determining the winner of this fight. At distance, Benavidez lands 2.75 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 1.88 for a differential of +0.87. On the other hand, Figueiredo has been outlanded at range. He lands only 1.37 per minute at distance, absorbs 1.41 and has a -0.04 differential. If Figueiredo is unable to score a knockdown or drag the fight to the floor, he might struggle to keep pace in a distance striking battle. Throughout his career, Benavidez has often been able to win prolonged distance striking contests, including a 2016 split-decision victory over two-division champion Henry Cejudo.
Benavidez's advantage at distance might be exacerbated in this fight thanks to his edge in terms of leg striking. In the UFC/WEC, 20% of his landed significant strikes have impacted the legs of his opponents, and he has outlanded his opponents 210 to 93 in the category. Figueiredo has landed only five significant leg strikes in seven UFC fights and has absorbed 36.
The bottom line
Figueiredo's mix of power striking on the feet and strong ground fighting skill make him an interesting challenge for Benavidez. Even if he is unable to consistently score takedowns in this fight, he could easily land fight-changing strikes even in limited opportunities.
Despite those seeming advantages for Figueiredo, Benavidez's edge in terms of distance striking will likely be too much for Figueiredo to handle in this contest. Over the course of a 25-minute fight, Benavidez might find himself in trouble. However, he should be able to win rounds by working from ranges where Figueiredo might struggle to land.
Prediction: Benavidez by decision