Former UFC men's flyweight title challenger Brandon Royval looks to get back into title contention when he squares off with undefeated Tatsuro Taira in the main event of UFC Fight Night at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with prelims at 4 p.m. on ESPN+).
Royval, No. 2 in ESPN's divisional rankings, is coming off a split decision win over former champion Brandon Moreno in February. Royval has won four of his last five bouts. Taira, ESPN's No. 6 ranked flyweight, has six wins in the Octagon, finishing four of six UFC opponents.
Brett Okamoto spoke to UFC welterweight Michael Chiesa to get his perspective on the main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets he likes on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Men's flyweight: Brandon Royval vs. Tatsuro Taira
Michael Chiesa, UFC welterweight
How Royval wins: He has to draw out Taira's takedowns from a distance. That will be hard because the fight is in the smaller cage at the Apex, which is much different than the 30-foot cage. Training out of Factory X in Denver, Royval will have good feints, and he'll use his lead hand and rear leg to corral some of Taira's movement and keep Taira in front of him. If Royval can do that, Taira is willing to shoot from a distance. His shot is fast and covers a lot of distance, but if Royval can draw it out from him at range, he can make some reads and intercept Taira with that left knee. Even if Royval doesn't hurt him with that knee, if he can make Taira feel the threat when he's changing levels, then Royval can force the standup fight that favors him.
How Taira wins: Mix it up. He's got such great composure. Even though he's undefeated, Taira has dealt with some adversity. His fundamentals are sound, he's got great hand position and he uses straight punches well. He's also disciplined with his footwork.
Taira will want this fight on the ground, and nothing opens up a takedown better than feinting a takedown and coming upstairs with your standup. He's got to disrupt Royval's takedown defense, so go low and touch his legs, and then go high with the hands. Keep him guessing.
X factor: Royval's experience. Taira has an unblemished record, but look at the guys he's fought. Royval has gone five rounds with Brandon Moreno. And he went five rounds with the champ, Alexandre Pantoja.
Prediction: Taira is a special talent. When you look at what he has skill for skill, he appears ready to give the champion a hard time right now. I have him winning a fight that goes the distance.
Betting analysis
Odds accurate as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.
Parker: Taira to win inside the distance. A win over Royval should put Taira in line for a title shot against Pantoja. Taira, known for his jiu-jitsu, has continued to improve his striking and become a well-rounded threat to his opponents. Royval is arguably his toughest opponent to date. However, Taira matches up well with him. Royval is a wild striker with a good ground game. But he can be so confident in his ground game that he puts himself in compromising positions and ends up paying for it. I think that's exactly what will happen against Taira. He will do something that ends up with Taira on his back, where Taira will get it done.
Parker's best bets on the rest of the card
Lightweight: Grant Dawson vs. Rafa Garcia
Dawson to win by decision. Garcia has never been finished in his 19-fight MMA career, and I don't believe that changes now. This fight will likely feature Dawson out-wrestling and out-grappling his opponent for three rounds on his way to a dominant decision, and that's how I will play it. If you want to risk the higher odds on Dawson in a parlay, I don't mind it. But the play here is Dawson to get it done by decision.
Featherweight: Jonathan Pearce vs. Pat Sabatini
Pearce to win (-155). After going 1-2 in his last three fights, with both losses coming by knockout, Sabatini hopes to get back on track with a win. For Sabatini to win, he has to control the grappling and be in top position for the entire fight. However, I don't see it happening. Pearce is the better wrestler of the two, he's very durable and has cardio for days. With Sabatini having two knockout losses over the last two years, I wouldn't be shocked if Pearce rocks him early and then utilizes his wrestling to control or finish Sabatini.
Welterweight: Chidi Njokuani vs. Jared Gooden
Njokuani to win (-170). This should be a standup fight, which favors Njokuani. Njokuani is the better technical kickboxer, and he has more power than Gooden. Gooden is a durable fighter, but he has proven that he's willing to engage in a standup battle. As long as Njokuani doesn't gas out, or get taken down and held on the mat, he should win.