Expert picks, best bets: Where's the value at UFC Fight Night and Bellator?

Featherweight up-and-comer Lerone Murphy puts his undefeated professional record on the line when he faces veteran contender Edson Barboza in the main event at UFC Fight Night on Saturday at the UFC Apex (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with prelims at 4 p.m. on ESPN+).

Murphy (13-0-1) is coming off back-to-back decision wins last year against Gabriel Santos (split decision) and Josh Culibao (unanimous decision). Barboza (24-11) also enters the fight coming off a pair of wins in 2023, including a five-round unanimous decision win over Sodiq Yusuff at UFC Fight Night last October. Neither fighter is ranked in ESPN's featherweight rankings.

Also, this weekend, Bellator MMA returns for Bellator Champions Series Paris on Friday (noon ET on Max). In the main event at Accor Arena, Patchy Mix (19-1) puts his bantamweight title on the line for the first time when he takes on Magomed Magomedov.

Mix, No. 6 in ESPN's bantamweight rankings, is riding a six-fight win streak that includes four submission victories. Most recently, he beat Sergio Pettis by second-round submission to claim the title at Bellator 301 last November. Magomedov (20-3) is coming off a first-round submission win over Danny Sabatello at Bellator MMA vs. Rizin 2 in July 2023. Before that, Magomedov lost to Mix by second-round submission at Bellator 289.

Andreas Hale spoke to MMA coach and ESPN analyst Din Thomas to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets he likes on the card. Parker also offers his best bets for the Bellator fight card.

Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.

Featherweight: Edson Barboza vs. Lerone Murphy

Din Thomas, MMA coach and ESPN analyst

How Barboza wins: Barboza is so good and experienced in these situations that he can make this an easy fight. His striking has always been his calling card, but more importantly, he knows what to do and when to do it. He's faced some of the best fighters and has been in tough spots. I'm not sure Murphy can do anything that Barboza hasn't seen before.

How Murphy wins: Murphy, 32, is a younger fighter than his 38-year-old opponent and will rely on his athleticism to win. He can surprise Barboza and catch him with a shot that he doesn't see coming to hurt him.

X factor: There are two X factors. First, Barboza's wrestling. He's willing to use that part of his game and can shut down Murphy's athleticism with it. The other factor is age. We have had plenty of young cub vs. old lion fights, but you never know when that lion truly shows his age until the night of the fight. We'll see if Barboza becomes the old man on this night.

Prediction: Barboza wins this pretty easily, probably by knockout. I'm high on Barboza because he's a better and more experienced version of Murphy using his experience in this type of matchup.

Betting analysis

Parker: Barboza to win (+120); Over 3.5 rounds (-155). After a big win over Yusuff, Barboza seeks to take out another highly regarded prospect in Murphy. Barboza is one of the best strikers in the division and his kicks can quickly change any fight. The question is: Can his chin hold up against Murphy, who has won 54% of his fights by knockout? I believe it can.

While Murphy is 6-0 in the Octagon, only two of his UFC wins were by KO/TKO. Barboza represents a huge step up in competition for Murphy, but the correct one if he is going to rise in the division. As long as Barboza doesn't get knocked out, his five-round fight experience, paired with his skilled striking, should be enough to get the win. Placing a bet on "over 3.5 rounds" isn't a bad idea.

Parker's best bets on the rest of the UFC Fight Night card

Welterweight: Themba Gorimbo vs. Ramiz Brahimaj

Over 1.5 rounds (-155). Only one of Gorimbo's three UFC fights didn't reach the "over 1.5 rounds" mark (his last fight against Pete Rodriguez). He certainly carries power, but his ground game is less than desirable, as half of his losses have come by submission. Enter Brahimaj, who has earned each of his 10 professional wins via submission and has been finished only once. Brahimaj is a live underdog here, and will have a major advantage if he can get the fight to the ground. The "over 1.5 rounds" makes sense here. Gorimbo will look to strike from a distance while fending off takedowns and spending a lot of time in the clinch.

Strawweight: Luana Pinheiro vs. Angela Hill

Hill to win (-150). I am shocked we are getting Hill at these odds. She should be closer to a -200 favorite in this matchup. There have been a few matchups where she got caught, but Hill has tremendously improved over the years. Hill is a great striker with above-average grappling and a high fight IQ. And she has a never-ending gas tank. This doesn't bode well for Pinheiro, who has previously shown she fades as the fight goes on and bails when she can. Hill should win in every aspect of this fight, and I wouldn't be surprised if she got a third-round finish.

Lightweight: Victor Martinez vs. Tom Nolan

Nolan to win by KO/TKO. Nolan was on the wrong end of a first-round TKO in his UFC debut, but he's getting a favorable matchup in his second fight. Martinez is coming off a TKO loss at the hands of Jordan Leavitt, which is a rarity for Leavitt. Martinez has zero submission wins and has shown little to no grappling in any of his fights. Nolan will likely have a dance partner willing to stand and bang, which favors Nolan. At 4-to-1 odds, let's take Nolan to get this done by KO/TKO.

Parker's best bets for Bellator Champions Series Paris

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Bantamweight: Patchy Mix vs. Magomed Magomedov

Mix to win inside the distance. Mix continues to evolve, becoming more dangerous in each and every fight. He's one of the best bantamweight fighters in the world, regardless of organization. Magomedov is coming off a win, but he didn't show anything that would suggest he will beat Mix this time around. Mix is a 3-to-1 favorite, so add him to a parlay or take him to win inside the distance. He will have five rounds to get the finish, but I don't think he will need more than three.

Lightweight: Cedric Doumbé vs. Jaleel Willis

Doumbe to win by KO/TKO. Doumbe is coming off the first loss of his professional career, but the Frenchman can get a bounce-back win in front of a home crowd in Paris. Willis has lost three of his last four fights and was finished in all three losses (two submissions, one knockout). His only path to victory here is to wrestle and keep Doumbe on his back, which I don't see happening. Look for Doumbe to get the knockout win and set up a bigger fight, potentially for a PFL pay-per-view event later in the year.