Middleweights Roman Dolidze and Nassourdine Imavov look to get back in the win column when they face off in the main event of UFC Fight Night at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday night (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with prelims at 4 p.m. on ESPN+).
Dolidze (12-2) lost to Marvin Vettori by unanimous decision in his last fight (UFC 286 in March 2023). Imavov (12-4, 1 NC) faced Chris Curtis in his most recent fight (UFC 289 in June 2023). That fight was ruled a no contest due to an incidental clash of heads.
Neither fighter is ranked in ESPN's divisional rankings.
Brett Okamoto spoke to MMA coach and ESPN analyst Din Thomas to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis on the main event and offer up other intriguing bets they like on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Middleweight: Roman Dolidze vs. Nassourdine Imavov
Din Thomas, MMA coach and ESPN analyst
How Dolidze wins: Use his power. Even if he doesn't end up hurting or knocking out Imavov, it forces Imavov to react, which slows him down. Use that power and get the fight to the ground. They're fighting in the smaller cage at the Apex, so corral Imavov against the fence and get him down. Dolidze is good enough on the ground to catch Imavov in a submission. Dolidze doesn't have great takedowns in the open mat, so he'll have to use power instead -- push Imavov to the fence and do enough work there to trip him to the ground.
How Imavov wins: He will have to be on his bicycle and control the spacing in the cage to avoid getting tied up and taken down. I think he's capable of that; he moves very well. And he has a side kick that he can use to keep Dolidze at distance. Don't allow this fight to turn into a brawl or a contest on the ground. Imavov isn't a weak puncher, but I don't think he has the power to hurt Dolidze. However, he does have the accuracy and volume striking to frustrate him, keep him on the outside and touch him up.
X factor: Imavov's wrestling. Who knows, maybe he'll sprinkle in a couple of takedowns himself. Imavov is a good grappler. He's not at the level of Dolidze, but his wrestling will have to be good enough to hold up defensively along the cage. Maybe he'll use it offensively at times to keep Dolidze off-balance.
Prediction: Imavov skates away with a decision. It's not going to be a fun fight, it probably won't look pretty, but he's going to get the job done. I like Dolidze a lot as a fighter, but this is a stylistic nightmare for him, taking on a guy who moves so well.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Imavov to win (-170). Neither man attempts many takedowns. But if someone ends up in ground control, it's more likely to be Imavov, whose superior control time boosts his chances on the mat.
If most of the rounds are spent standing, Imavov will be the more active striker. He has excellent precision, though historically, he lets opponents sometimes lead exchanges. Yet Dolidze uses an even slower pace and isn't nearly as accurate as Imavov. Round over round, Dolidze absorbs more damage than he gives out, leading to Imavov edging otherwise close rounds.
Parker: Imavov to win; Over 2.5 rounds. Imavov is a talented striker with great footwork and solid takedown defense. Imavov should use the same game plan that Marvin Vettori did against Dolidze. Stay away from the big punches and avoid going to the ground, where Dolidze is well known for his leg locks.
If Imavov can avoid the overhand right from Dolidze, he can win this fight decisively on the feet with his movement and volume striking. Imavov isn't the best finisher and he doesn't rush, even if he has his opponent in trouble. So if you are not in love with betting on either side, the over 2.5 rounds also has some solid value.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Lightweight: Renato Moicano vs. Drew Dober
Parker: Moicano to win (-180). This matchup should be a fun one, it could even end up being the fight of the night. When Dober fights, we all know what to expect: a kill-or-be-killed mentality. And that is why the fans appreciate his fighting style. However, this is the first opponent Dober will have faced in a long time with a high-level submission game.
For those who see value in Dober, I get it. He has knockout power and Moicano has been KO'd three times in his UFC tenure. To his credit, those were against Jose Aldo, Rafael Fiziev and Chan Sung Jung. So it's not like he was defeated by a bunch of cans. Since his last knockout loss, Moicano has become a much smarter fighter and has reverted to using the ground game that made him successful. Look for Moicano to utilize the smaller cage at the Apex and close the distance quickly. Once he does that and gets the fight to the floor, he will take over and more than likely get the sub over Dover.
Welterweight: Randy Brown vs. Muslim Salikhov
Kuhn: Brown to win (-260). This is a massive size mismatch, with Brown a rangy fighter also having the benefit of taking on a fighter that is pushing 40 years old. On the feet, Brown leverages his huge reach by using a rapid rate of strikes, more than twice that of Salikhov.
Brown has been dealt more knockdowns, which is a risk against a harder-hitting opponent like Salikhov. But again the range difference could save Brown, combined with his above-average strike defense. That should lead to frustrating rounds for Salikhov.
Women's flyweight: Viviane Araujo vs. Natalia Silva
Parker: Silva to win (-350). Araujo will have to fight a perfect fight to beat Silva. However, Silva is the type of fighter that tends to throw off her opponent's game plan and force them into her style of fight. Silva has great submissions, but where she has improved drastically is in her striking. Look for her to avoid the power and early onslaught from Araujo, and use her well-rounded skill set to get the win.
Strawweight: Molly McCann vs. Diana Belbita
Kuhn: McCann to win (-270). Barnburner alert: The two highest-paced strikers on the card -- averaging over 40 strike attempts combined per minute on the feet -- are facing off. Though Belbita will be much larger, she eats more strikes than anyone on the card. And McCann is the type of brawler to take advantage of an opponent's poor defense in a firefight.
Perhaps surprisingly, McCann is more likely to initiate takedowns, and if she invests there, she could add control time to help in securing rounds. And if things slow down in the clinch, McCann also has better control there. Though Belbita may appear a weight class larger, McCann's hustle appears tailor-made for this type of fight.
Welterweight: Gilbert Urbina vs. Charles Radtke
Parker: Urbina to win (-210). I love this matchup for Urbina, and anyone who could get a line lower than -200, consider yourselves lucky. Urbina will be the much bigger fighter, and no matter where the fight goes, he will have a strong advantage. If you couldn't get Urbina under -200, toss him in a parlay or take him to win inside the distance.