Rafael Fiziev looks to get back in the win column when he takes on fellow lightweight contender Mateusz Gamrot in the main event at UFC Fight Night at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with prelims at 4 p.m. on ESPN+).
Fiziev, ranked No. 7 in ESPN's divisional rankings, lost to Justin Gaethje by majority decision at UFC 286 in March. Prior to the loss, Fiziev was on a six-fight winning streak. Gamrot, ranked just behind Fiziev, enters the fight following a split decision win over Jalin Turner at UFC 285.
Also on Saturday, Bellator middleweight champion Johnny Eblen puts his title on the line against Fabian Edwards in the main event at Bellator 299 at 3Arena in Dublin.
Eblen, ESPN's No. 8-ranked middleweight, is undefeated (13-0) with his most recent win coming via unanimous decision over Anatoly Tokov at Bellator 290 in February. Edwards, the younger brother of UFC welterweight champion Leon Edwards, is unranked by ESPN. Edwards enters the matchup riding a three-fight win streak that includes wins over former UFC light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida and former Bellator middleweight champion Gegard Mousasi.
Brett Okamoto spoke to Factory X MMA coach Marc Montoya to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets they like on the two fight cards.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Lightweight: Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot
Marc Montoya, Factory X MMA coach
How Fiziev wins: He's an incredible talent. The thing that I love about Fiziev is that he throws with power, but he's rarely off-balance. That is a skill that most people don't have. It's such a threat to his opponents because the way to counter that is to draw him off-balance and hit him in that state. Gamrot is obviously going to try to take him down and he has to defend those. Fiziev's clinch experience is really what makes his takedown defense legit. The question is can he defend Gamrot's takedowns enough to open up his game? In most fights, if a fighter can defend three takedowns, they become free. If Fiziev is able to do that, his game will open up. He has to stay patient, but he's so rangy and he can be a real problem with his power and ability to stay on balance.
How Gamrot wins: Disguise his takedowns. A guy like him, will come out really aggressive and instantly take his opponent down. And I don't think it's a bad idea to try that, just to keep Fiziev honest, but I think he will have to disguise his shots after that. Fiziev is aggressive and throws power, meaning his feet are set. So I would suggest baiting him, get him to come to us so we don't always have to go to him. It's hard sometimes as an offensive wrestler to constantly strike into the danger zone and wrestle through it. It can be exhausting. So, use that disguise of, 'OK, I'm going to strike here,' get Fiziev to set his feet, and then use the counter wrestling. That's not an easy thing to do, because Gamrot is such an offensive wrestler. He will need to have drilled that during camp.
X-factor: For Fiziev, it's the ability to keep his balance and throw power. For Gamrot, it's that question of whether he drilled that counter-wrestling.
Prediction: Fiziev. He's been in there with some amazing talent. Not that Gamrot hasn't, but I don't know if he's fought someone who throws with such efficiency and power.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Gamrot to win (+125). The combination of opposing factors makes this one tricky. It obviously boils down to a striker versus grappler, with Fiziev clearly wanting to turn this into a slugfest, to take advantage of Gamrot's chin. Meanwhile, Gamrot wants to fight on the mat, where he's done his best work against tough talent, grinding out opponents..
Who will concede their preferred position first? Fiziev's takedown defense sits at an impressive 90%, meaning he'll likely stuff plenty of early attempts. But can he stay standing when Gamrot is stringing together multiple attempts in sequence? And assuming Fiziev remains upright for any extended sequences, can he land damaging strikes before his speed fades? Gamrot has superior striking defense and excellent accuracy of his own, which could buy him time to close distance.
Gamrot is a competent enough striker that he could lull Fiziev into range for takedowns. This seems like a split decision in the making. But the math loves wrestlers, and the plus money is worth a chance on Gamrot.
Parker: Over 3.5 rounds (-175). If Fiziev can keep the fight standing, he will have a clear advantage. However, both men are extremely durable and can go to the later rounds if necessary. I don't see either man getting finished in the first three rounds and, if a finish does happen, I think it would be in Round 5. I'm taking over 3.5 rounds here. I see Gamrot closing the distance and forcing this into a wrestling match, which will drain the clock.
Best bets on the rest of the UFC card
Men's featherweight: Bryce Mitchell vs. Dan Ige
Kuhn: Mitchell to win (-210). Ige has proven he can stand and trade with the best, even when he's typically outranged. That won't be a problem against Mitchell, who has a shorter reach. The question is whether Ige can unleash his hands while also trying to defend constant takedown attempts.
At 58%, Ige's takedown defense is much more vulnerable than most on this card, and once Mitchell gets opponents to the mat, he is a grappler who maintains a controlling position for long stretches of time. He's also a slick transition artist, commonly adjusting position to find new submission angles or ensuring the referee doesn't get bored enough for a standup. Throw in that Mitchell has more submission attempts than anyone on the card, and we've got a massive mismatch on the mat.
Strawweight: Marina Rodriguez vs. Michelle Waterson-Gomez
Parker: Rodriguez to win (-300). Rodriguez fought Waterson-Gomez in 2021, winning by unanimous decision. I see this fight going the exact same way. Waterson-Gomez has lost five of her last six fights, and when she loses, she takes a ton of damage. At some point, that is going to add up. As long as Rodriguez can keep this fight standing -- which should be no issue -- she should cruise in this fight.
Middleweight: Jacob Malkoun vs. Cody Brundage
Kuhn: Malkoun to win; use in parlay (-500). My theme of the week is obviously wrestling, and Malkoun is the only fighter with anywhere near the mat control time of Bryce Mitchell. Like Mitchell, Malkoun wastes no time before going after takedowns, attempting them once every 27 seconds while on the feet.
Brundage has the power advantage while he's standing, so the question will be how long he can manage to keep the fight there. Malkoun is definitely vulnerable on the feet, with head strike defense that is well below average. I expect Malkoun to be motivated to get the fight to the ground, where he'll have a significant control advantage. Unless you're hunting for a KO prop for Brundage, Malkoun is probably ending up in a lot of parlays.
Parker: Malkoun to win inside the distance. Brundage is getting a nightmare stylistic matchup in Malkoun. Outside of a puncher's chance, I don't see a path to victory for Brundage. Expect Malkoun to put on a pace that Brundage will struggle to keep up with. Brundage might survive Round 1, but I don't see it lasting much longer than that. It's not that Malkoun is a finishing machine -- he has zero finishes in his UFC career -- however, two of Brundage's four losses have come by finish. I believe Malkoun gets his first finish here.
Heavyweight: Mohammad Usman vs. Jake Collier
Parker: Usman to win (-150). Usman should be able to win just based on his athletic abilities alone. But if he gets lazy or too cocky, Collier is crafty enough to give him a scare. Collier has lost his last three fights after having some success in the heavyweight division. This is a tough matchup for him, as Usman carries power in his strikes and will be the better wrestler. Unless Collier catches Usman, I think Usman gets it done with relative ease in this one.
Ian Parker's best bets for Bellator 299
Middleweight title fight: Johnny Eblen vs. Fabian Edwards
Eblen to win (-535). Edwards will look to pull off a huge upset to get the win over Eblen. But, I just don't see it happening. As good as Edwards was in his last fight, Mousasi appeared to be at his worst. And Eblen might be the best middleweight in the sport right now, regardless of organization.
I expect Eblen to utilize his wrestling and grappling, where he will have a major advantage. Edwards has proven to be resilient and durable throughout his career, so it wouldn't surprise me if he was able to make it the distance. I would take Elben to win and have him as the anchor in a parlay.
Men's featherweight: Aaron Pico vs. Pedro Carvalho
Pico to win by knockout or decision; Over 1.5 rounds. Pico is taking on a seasoned veteran and dangerous striker in Carvalho. This will be a tremendous test for Pico. Currently, he is the biggest favorite on the card, sitting at -1000, which feels a little over the top. Pico should win, but as that big of a favorite against someone who has fought everyone, if Carvalho can keep the fight standing, he can make this a close one. I think we will see Pico go to his bread and butter, his wrestling. He must do this to avoid getting tagged like he has in previous fights.
Take over 1.5 rounds in this fight, as Carvalho is durable. I believe he will be able to hang around and make this close in Round 1. In the second round, expect Pico to get the fight to the floor and start breaking his opponent down.