Former UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman will fight to reclaim the 170-pound title at UFC 286 on Saturday (5 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV) as he takes on champ Leon Edwards in a trilogy bout in London.
After pulling off the third-latest comeback finish in the division's history to dethrone Usman (20-2) in the final minute of Round 5 in August, Edwards (20-3) looks to earn an upset again, but this time in his home country of England. The fighters first met in 2015, with Usman winning a decision in his UFC debut.
Former UFC women's featherweight and current ESPN MMA analyst Megan Anderson breaks down how Edwards needs to approach the fight to get his first title defense against one of the greatest welterweights in MMA history.
How did we get here?
The second fight was a one-sided affair. While Edwards had success early on, the fight was mostly the Usman show.
Usman used his grinding wrestling style to force Edwards to wear his weight through the middle rounds. He came out aggressively with combos that forced Edwards to defend with a high guard against the cage, creating openings for Usman's takedowns. Usman continually tested Edwards' up-down cardio. Often, Edwards worked to get back to his feet, just to get taken down again.
But that's how Usman fights, grinding opponents against the cage and wearing them down. And he's one of the best to do it. Usman has the second-most control time in UFC welterweight history, behind Georges St-Pierre, and ranks fifth among all fighters.
After losing the first round, Usman had a point to prove. It's rare to see Usman lose a round, but it's how he lost it that likely bothered him most. Usman, who has the second-highest takedown defense percentage in UFC history, was taken down and controlled on the mat by Edwards, a striker by trade who has landed just 22 of 65 takedown attempts in the UFC.
The high elevation in Salt Lake City appeared to weigh more heavily on Edwards than Usman, who lives and trains in Denver. Training in high altitude allowed Usman to maintain constant pressure and dictate the fight's pace. It wasn't until Usman took his foot off the gas that Edwards capitalized.
Late in Round 5, Usman stopped coming forward, which gave Edwards room to land the head kick that ended the fight.
Usman has the reach advantage, but he's not better striker
Usman has a two-inch reach advantage against Edwards, which could play in his favor. But Edwards is the superior striker, as he's more polished and experienced.
While Usman has improved his striking game since working with Trevor Wittman -- which I highlighted before the second bout between these two -- he is still susceptible to feints and hand traps. It means an opponent is able to grab and control Usman's wrist to create angles and openings for strikes. Hand trapping Usman allows Edwards to keep Usman within striking distance, which is helpful considering his reach disadvantage. It's also annoying as hell.
Usman also drops his hand after throwing a jab before bringing his it back. Usman's jabs are clean and technically sound, but instead of snapping his hand back to protect his head immediately, he drops it to his side for a split second before bringing it back to the proper position. If Edwards can use feints to force Usman to throw his jab, that split second when Usman's hand drops is an opening for Edwards.
In the last fight, Edwards often countered Usman's strikes with just one punch. Instead, he should look to throw at least two- or three-punch combos, then immediately circle and return to the center of the Octagon. Whether his back is against the cage or facing heavy pressure from Usman, Edwards needs to consistently circle after combos.
High-volume combos will also allow Edwards to slow Usman's pressure and reestablish control. Usman tends to disrespect his opponent's power, and the best way to counter that is with extensive combos.
And, when Usman aggressively closes distance, his head often doesn't come off a center line, meaning he's a stationary target. In those moments, Edwards needs to meet him in the middle and throw strikes with bad intentions.
Edwards has three choices when Usman applies pressure. He can utilize those moments to circle, meet him in the middle with powerful combos or switch it up and go for a takedown.
Wait, Edwards has the advantage where?
I spoke to Edwards' camp last week, and it said the champ believes Round 1 of the last fight was a sample of how this rubber match will play out. Edwards believes the version of him that we saw after fatigue set in from the elevation is the worst version. He also believes he is the better all-around fighter with an advantage in Brazilian jiu-jitsu grappling.
Often, when dominant wrestlers like Usman are tossed on their backs, they struggle because those are unusual positions for them. That's what occurred when Edwards landed a takedown in Round 1.
Usman does his best work when he's chest-to-chest with his opponent. He likes to work off double under hooks or body locks against the cage. In those positions, he wants to use outside leg reaps to force opponents off balance to create a scramble or a takedown. To reap opponents from a body lock, Usman takes his outside leg and hooks it behind his opponent's, then pulls them to the mat.
In those positions, Edwards needs to be patient, which he did well early in the last fight until he started to tire. When Usman gets the clinch, Edwards needs to focus on separating the hands and digging his own under hook to circle and create space or look for a takedown.
Prediction
Edwards has a clear path to victory and I believe he will claim it. He has a clear advantage as a striker and jiu-jitsu grappler. I expect Usman to push the pace, but if Edwards can fend off his wrestling moves or use them to his advantage by working in his own takedowns, Edwards will score a second upset.