Islam Makhachev puts his lightweight title on the line against men's featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski in the main event of UFC 284 (Sat. 10 p.m. on ESPN+ PPV). Not only is the 155-pound belt up for grabs, but the undisputed title of pound-for-pound king is on the line as well.
Makhachev (23-1), ranked No. 2 in ESPN's P4P rankings, beat Charles Oliveira to claim the lightweight title last October. Makhachev has finished his opponent in each of his past five fights. Volkanovski (25-1), ESPN's P4P No. 1, has held the featherweight title since 2019. He earned a unanimous decision win over Max Holloway in his last fight.
In the co-main event, Yair Rodriguez and Josh Emmett will fight for the interim men's featherweight title -- an opportunity created by Volkanovski choosing to fight Makhachev. Rodriguez (14-3, 1 NC), ranked No. 4 in ESPN's divisional rankings, beat Brian Ortega via first-round TKO in his last fight. Emmett (18-2), ranked No. 7, picked up a split-decision win over Calvin Kattar last June.
Marc Raimondi spoke to Fight Ready MMA coach Santino DeFranco to get his perspective on the main event and New England Cartel coach Tyson Chartier to get his perspective on the co-main event. ESPN's betting experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn also add their insights and analysis on fights they like on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Lightweight title fight: Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski
Santino DeFranco, Fight Ready MMA coach
How Makhachev wins: His striking is infinitely better than people give him credit for. He's a southpaw with good head movement and good fundamentals. He has a really good jab and a clean cross. He's not a world-beater on the feet, but he does stuff well. So, it's not strictly a striker vs. grappler matchup like some would think.
Makhachev presses, but he doesn't necessarily throw as he's moving forward. Instead, he waits for his opponent to throw, and then he tracks for the counter. Against Volkanovski, he needs to be throwing punches as he's moving forward or he's going to be the one getting countered by a far superior counter striker. Makhachev has got to cut off the cage, grab Volkanovski and get the fight to the mat. If he stays just in a clinch, Volkanovski is so wiggly that he's going to get out. Makhachev will have to push the grappling cardio to the mat and try to hold Volkanovski there.
How Volkanovski wins: Volkanovski's lateral movement and feints might be the best I have ever seen in the sport. They're reminiscent of prime Frankie Edgar, but they're even more calculated. The other thing Volkanovski does well is avoiding throwing single punches. He throws two to four punches in the pocket and will regularly land on that second, third or fourth punch. He touches on the outside, moves, then repeats. And when there's an exchange, it's combinations in the pocket. He's got to mix in those extra punches to find Makhachev, especially as Makhachev is trying to grab him.
X factor: Wrestling and cardio. Can Makhachev get Volkanovski down and hold on to him? Volk is a ball of energy. Can Makhachev keep up with Volkanovski's pace for 25 minutes?
Prediction: I think Volkanovski is going to pick Makhachev apart. It's crazy that Volkanovski is a big underdog. He's way better than people think, even if he's ranked No. 1 pound-for-pound. We watched him prep for our fighter "The Korean Zombie" Chan Sung Jung before they fought last year. We picked the tape apart in every way possible and realized just how good he is. Zombie just couldn't get a read on him, and then we all saw what he did to Holloway, which was just silly. Yeah, the guy is like three feet tall, but it's not like he's a pure 135er or 145er. He used to weigh 200 pounds, so he gets huge in between fights. I don't think the weight is going to be that big of a deal. We've never really seen him hurt. I think Volkanovski is going to have a serious showing in there.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Makhachev to win (-410), over 2.5 rounds (-175). If it stays standing, Volkanovski's striking matches evenly with Makhachev's. And he has been tested against better technical strikers. But on the ground, Makhachev has a clear advantage. The move up to lightweight, for Volkanovski, only exacerbates the risk of Makhachev taking safe rounds through heavy ground control.
Volkanovski has a sound wrestling base, and that should be enough to stretch the fight safely into later rounds. While the numbers like Makhachev overall, you might get a better return just taking over 2.5 rounds and banking on Volkanovski to make for a stubborn out.
Men's featherweight title fight: Yair Rodriguez vs. Josh Emmett
Tyson Chartier, New England Cartel coach
How Rodriguez wins: He's got to strike first and back Emmett up a little bit. He can't just stand there and wait, because that's when Emmett will come forward and start throwing bombs. Rodriguez needs to use his legs, back Emmett up, and go first. Rodriguez has an array of weapons, more than Emmett -- he's got the kicks, the knees, the spinning stuff. He's long. And he has creativity in his striking. You know it's not going to be basic jabs, crosses and hooks. He might throw a cartwheel kick or he might throw a flying knee. He might throw something spinning. He's not as predictable as others.
How Emmett wins: Like Rodriguez, he's got to bite down on his mouthpiece and go first. He's got to dictate the pace, put Rodriguez on his heels and close the distance. Then, Rodriguez won't feel as comfortable kicking, because there won't be enough room. And Emmett has to get some takedowns, especially if he catches some kicks. You saw Holloway do that against Rodriguez. If he was lazy with those kicks, Holloway would take him down or come forward with punches to put him on his heels and make him kind of stumble. I think that pressure takes away that distance and makes it so Rodriguez won't want to kick as much.
X factor: Emmett's wrestling. Even Holloway wrestled a little bit against Rodriguez, and that helped him win. Emmett has shown that he can be stubborn and just brawl even in fights he's not sure he's winning. He was a college wrestler, and going off footage from his fight against my fighter, Kattar, he just didn't commit to it. If the plan was to wrestle against Kattar, I have to assume the plan is 100 percent to wrestle against Rodriguez, which would be smart.
Prediction: I think Emmett has the tools to put Rodriguez on his heels and maybe put him on his butt to squeak by with the decision. Emmett has the power advantage as a boxer, but Rodriguez's dynamic kicks and flying knees are just as powerful and so creative. There's no one else who sets it up like he does. Someone getting knocked out here is like a coin toss, but I'm taking Emmett to pull out a close decision.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Slight lean Rodriguez to win (-175). Emmett has scored 11 knockdowns in his UFC career, as many as all three other combatants on this card's two title fights. He swings hard, with jabs accounting for only 25% of his strikes. But Rodriguez is the younger and less damaged of the two. If he can withstand a few big shots, he's poised to score more often in what should be a close decision. It's likely this will see championship rounds.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Heavyweight: Justin Tafa vs. Parker Porter
Parker: Tafa to win (-125). Porter, prior to his loss to Jailton Almeida, had three decision wins over opponents who don't carry the same power that Tafa does. Look for Tafa to use his nasty leg kicks to slow Porter down and eventually land a barrage of strikes to get the win.
Light heavyweight: Jimmy Crute vs. Alonzo Menifield
Kuhn: Crute to win (-180), fight does not go the distance (-450). Crute and Menifield both pack power, but you have to give the edge to Crute. The matchup is more even on the feet, but the value is in expecting Crute to take the fight down.
Aside from Makhachev, Crute has spent more of his fight time controlling opponents on the mat than anyone on the card. He has a full arsenal of submissions and a lot to prove at home coming off two tough losses. He's also a bit sloppy. So the inside-the-distance play hedges against a Menifield haymaker.
Women's strawweight: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Elise Reed
Parker: Lookboonmee to win (-280). Lookboonmee has evolved as a mixed martial artist. Being an excellent striker, she has taken the time to work on her grappling and takedown defense, and it showed in her last fight. Against Reed, she will have a significant advantage in the striking department as long as she can keep the fight standing. If she gets taken down, look for Lookboonmee to stand back up immediately to keep Reed from stealing rounds. I think Lookboonmee's takedown defense is good enough to keep this fight on the feet and get the win.
Kuhn: Over 2.5 rounds (-350), or Fight Goes the Distance (-280) While Reed is a sizable underdog to Lookboonmee, their numbers are surprisingly similar. Lookboonmee is a worthy favorite due to her history in Muay Thai, and even professional boxing, but on paper, her performance stats don't live up to the reputation of an elite striker. Look for Reed to put up a decent fight and force a decision.