When UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev puts his title on the line against featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 284 in Perth, Australia, on Saturday night (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV), Makhachev will be the clear favorite.
Despite taking on ESPN's No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in his first title defense, there seems to be an overwhelming belief among fans and oddsmakers that Makhachev (23-1) will win this fight. And with a win, he can claim the P4P top spot.
With Volkanovski (25-1) entering the matchup as an underdog, it sparks a couple of questions: How good is the lightweight champion? What is Volkanovski's path to victory if Makhachev is as good as advertised?
Former UFC women's featherweight and current ESPN MMA analyst Megan Anderson breaks down Makhachev's game and the areas where Volkanovski could find an opportunity to capitalize.
How good is Islam Makhachev?
Makhachev has risen to nearly every occasion presented to him. Since making his UFC debut in 2015, the Dagestan native has lost only one fight -- his second appearance with the promotion -- and has finished all but five of his 13 opponents (including finishing each of his last five). Like his former coach and longtime friend, Khabib Nurmagomedov, Makhachev has built a reputation for getting opponents to the mat and dominating them there.
While the comparison is certainly understandable, in the title fight against Charles Oliveira at UFC 280, Makhachev showed that his style differs from Nurmagomedov's.
MMA fans already knew about Makhachev's talent as a grappler and wrestler, but his ability to fight on the feet has seemingly been underappreciated. People automatically assume he will enter the Octagon and immediately start shooting for takedowns, but that's not the case. Makhachev has proven to be very comfortable striking and his boxing is clean. Even though the takedown is inevitably coming, he does an excellent job of blending his attempts. Rather than continually shooting for takedowns, Makhachev excels at cutting off the cage and backing his opponents up against the fence, and then he shoots for takedowns. He, like Khabib, doesn't go for many single- or double-leg takedowns. Most of his shots come from a body lock.
His style on the feet isn't fancy, but it is effective. He is patient. He doesn't force anything that would put him in a bad position as he finds openings for his combinations, which he mixes up well. His biggest shots seem to be his left straight and right body kicks, but he also has a nasty left-body kick to the liver.
Even as good as the lightweight champ has proven to be, he's not perfect. There is a path to victory for Volkanovski. The featherweight champ will have to rely on his striking and his speed and movement if he plans to pull off the upset.
Striking
In his last fight, Volkanovski was as fast and as sharp as we've ever seen him in the Octagon. He also showed that he could maintain that pace through five rounds. That's going to be critical against Makhachev.
Certain elements in every wrestler's fighting style create openings when the fight is on the feet. As stated above, while Makhachev is a good striker, he's still a wrestler at his core. Since he likes to work off the cage, the jab will be crucial for Volkanovski to allow him to move and create different angles on his strikes.
Even though Volkanovski only has a slight reach advantage in this matchup (71 inches to 70.5 inches), his jab will allow him to find his range and use it as a get-back tool. By that I mean, when somebody comes at you with heavy forward pressure and then you hit them with a stiff jab -- one that snaps their head back like a Pez dispenser, that will stop them in their tracks.
Mahachev, though he has good balance, is lead-leg heavy, not unlike other wrestlers. While they may not pay off immediately, leg kicks from Volkanovski, the inside or outside calf kick would slow down Makhachev throughout the fight. In the fight against Max Holloway, that tactic seemed to slow down Holloway's forward movement.
With Makhachev being a southpaw, this fight will be in the open stance (an orthodox fighter against a southpaw). Things will open up that aren't there when two fighters have the same stance. For Makhachev, this will create an opening for those left-body kicks to the liver and left kicks to the head. For Volkanovski, it will open up a straight right to the liver and right kicks to the head.
On those left-body kicks, if Volkanovski can defend them properly (bring his right shoulder to his head as he changes levels), the kick should glance off his shoulder and leave him with an opening for a right straight to Makhachev's liver.
Speed and movement
Makhachev controls the cage with his presence. His ability to walk his opponents down and back them against the Octagon allows him to limit his opponent's movement to set up the body lock.
While Volkanovski has faced talented grapplers like Brian Ortega at featherweight, they are not at the level of Makhachev. Although it is worth mentioning, I believe Ortega's squeeze when attempting submissions is comparable to that of Makhachev's.
Volkanovski is incredibly fast, and he'll have to use that speed to stay on the move and keep the fight standing. His hand speed will be important as he needs to get in and be quick with his strikes and then immediately get back to his range. If he's a stationary target, Makhachev will get a hold of him.
I expect Volkanovski to continually switch stances to ensure he's also constantly switching directions. With the open stance, he will have a clear exit to the left to get away from the power hand of Makhachev. Moving left will force Makhachev to change angles to try and cut the Octagon off. Doing so will cause him to square his shoulders to his opponent, allowing Volkanovski to switch to a southpaw stance and dart back in toward the right with the left straight.
His ability to create different angles like that could force Makhachev to be chasing him rather than just walking him down. Even though Makhachev would be the one going forward, he wouldn't be able to keep Volkanovski where he wants him.
If Volkanovski can properly combine his striking with his speed and movement, we might just see him pull off one of the few upset wins of his career and claim double-champ status.