UFC title matchup projections: What does our model think of Makhachev-Volkanovski and Edwards-Usman 3?

Nearly one month into the new year, the UFC has already crowned one new champion. Last weekend, at UFC 283 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Jamahal Hill claimed the light heavyweight title with a unanimous decision over former champion Glover Teixeira, but how will be the result of other upcoming UFC title fights?

Using predictive models agnostic of betting lines, we examined how each champion's matchup appears from a favorability view. Essentially, is this a good matchup for the champ?

The inputs consider each fighter's performance metrics inside the Octagon and select factors about the fighter outside the cage. The higher the score, the more favorable the incumbent champ matches.

These scores don't indicate how to bet the fight, but just the relative favorability running from the riskiest to the best matchup.

Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker look at the next five title fights that are scheduled over the next couple of months, and three fights that we hope materialize in the near future -- including the fourth matchup between "The Last Stylebender" Israel Adesanya and reigning middleweight champion Alex Pereira. Kuhn provides the model projections for each fight, while Parker details the betting perspective.

And still?

Lightweight title fight: Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski, Feb. 11 at UFC 284

Projection: Makhachev over Volkanovski, strong lean

What the numbers mean: The performance metrics favor Makhachev, agnostic of the challenger's move up. His wrestling should be the difference here. He won't give Volkanovski a striker's chance if he takes the fight to the mat early and often. -- Kuhn

Where the bettors lean: The odds for this matchup make sense. The size difference between these two will matter as Volkanovski's physical strength will not be the same factor as it has been against other featherweights. While Volkanovski deserves the chance to cement his legacy, this may be the worst possible matchup for him at lightweight. I fully expect Makhachev to eliminate his ability to strike by closing the distance and turning this into a wrestling match, where he will have a definitive advantage. -- Parker

Women's flyweight title fight: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Alexa Grasso, March 4 at UFC 285

Projection: Shevchenko over Grasso, slight lean

What the numbers mean: We haven't seen anyone come close to Shevchenko's betting lines at flyweight, but recently we did at least see Taila Santos take her to a close decision. She's mortal, and Grasso's stats are similar enough that there might be some value if Shevchenko sees another sky-high price. -- Kuhn

Where the bettors lean: Shevchenko's recent fight with Santos is the only reason her odds are at -600 against Grasso. Santos is a big, strong athlete with great striking and a sound ground game. Like Santos, Grasso is a technical striker, but her ground game is not comparable. Shevchenko will be the better striker, and if she chooses to take Grasso to the ground, expect her to dominate. -- Parker

And new?

Interim men's featherweight title fight: Yair Rodriguez vs. Josh Emmett, Feb. 11 at UFC 284

Projection: Rodriguez over Emmett, medium lean

What the numbers mean: The numbers favor the technical striking of Rodriguez over the slower pace and power punching of Emmett. Their ground games should cancel out, and we've seen both welcome a five-round duel. So, the fans should get what they want in this one. -- Kuhn

Where the bettor lean: The elusive and unpredictable striking of Rodriguez against the power of Emmett makes for an interesting matchup to bet on, as Emmett's wrestling could swing the fight. With such a clear grappling advantage, he would be crazy not to use it. However, it makes sense that Rodriguez opened as a slight favorite. But his win over Brian Ortega came via injury, and before that, he lost to Max Holloway in a one-sided decision. Based on past performances of both fighters, granted they are aggressive, I would lean towards looking at the odds on the over of rounds and the fight going the distance, rather than trying to pick a winner. -- Parker

Heavyweight title fight: Ciryl Gane vs. Jon Jones, March 4 at UFC 285

Projection: Jones over Gane, slight lean

What the numbers mean: Two gifted big-men strikers, both excellent at avoiding damage and able to pile on strikes round over round. However, Gane's limited ground game should be something for Jones (whose grappling is arguably a bigger threat than his striking) to capitalize on. -- Kuhn

Where the bettors lean: For years, we have been waiting on Jones to move up in weight and take on a new challenge. The question is: Will his style of fighting still work with the added weight? When we last saw him in the Octagon, he was a calculated striker, who made few mistakes and could break down opponents throughout the fight. But can he do that against a much bigger and athletic opponent like Gane? It is an absolute gift that we are getting nearly even odds in this fight. Gane's deficiencies (his wrestling and ground game) are where Jones is an absolute beast. After seeing Gane get taken down repeatedly by Ngannou, my money will be on Jones. -- Parker

Welterweight title fight: Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman, March 18 at UFC 286

Projection: Usman over Edwards, near tossup

What the numbers mean: Another rematch, and here the numbers back up the fact that Usman is better at winning rounds than Edwards. However, expect the line to stay close as Edwards gains confidence from his last performance. -- Kuhn

Where the bettors lean: I feel like the odds for this trilogy bout make sense, based on the overall narrative of the last fight, not just the ending. It is hard to imagine Usman, who makes few mistakes, will make that same mistake again. -- Parker

If this title fight gets booked ...

Men's bantamweight title fight: Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo

This is a speculative matchup, this fight has not been announced by the UFC.

Projection: Sterling over Cejudo, medium lean

What the numbers mean: The numbers have liked Sterling three times in a row at a high value. Considering Sterling's ground game would, at best, be even with Cejudo's, it must be Sterling's high-paced pressure via long-range combinations that could score better on the feet than Cejudo's more reserved up-close boxing. -- Kuhn

Where the bettors lean: A fight that we hope materializes between the reigning bantamweight champ and the former two-division champ should come down to Sterling's ability to impose his grappling on Cejudo. Sterling may just be the best in the game at taking an opponent's back. But to do that, he'll have to take down one of the best wrestlers in the history of the sport. From a betting perspective, assuming Cejudo is back to form after a nearly three-year retirement, I would be leaning toward getting him at underdog odds. If he can keep the fight standing, I believe he is the better technical striker and can overcome the range of Sterling. -- Parker

Middleweight title fight: Alex Pereira vs. Israel Adesanya

This is a speculative matchup; this fight has not been announced by the UFC.

Projection: Adesanya over Pereira, slight lean

What the numbers mean: The striking dynamics remain, and Adesanya's tricky game has won rounds against more powerful strikers in the past, despite coming up short against Pereira last November. Adesanya, with a few adjustments, deserves to be the favorite, but not by much. -- Kuhn

Where the bettors lean: When this rematch happens, I think there are adjustments Adesanya will make to get back the title. I believe Pereira underestimated the power of Adesanya in the last fight, but that doesn't change the style difference or the volume of strikes between the two. I would lean toward taking Adesanya to win the rematch. If he can stay composed and is up rounds in the fight, he will win a clear decision in the rematch. -- Parker

Strawweight title fight: Zhang Weili vs. Rose Namajunas

This is a speculative matchup; this fight has not been announced by the UFC.

Projection: Namajunas over Zhang, near tossup

What the numbers mean: Namajunas has taken two in a row against Zhang, but Zhang could still be getting better. They've proved they make for close rounds, so I don't see the betting lines shifting too far either way. But on paper, Namajunas is still a more technical dual threat against Zhang's brute force. -- Kuhn

Where the bettors lean: Since her loss to Namajunas, Zhang has looked dominant, while Namajunas lost to Carla Esparza in her last bout. I think Zhang will be able to overcome the distance striking of Namajunas and rely on her wrestling and top pressure to get a win. By the time these two meet again, Zhang could be a much bigger favorite. -- Parker