The UFC finally returns to Brazil, which is the promotion host for its first PPV of the year, UFC 283 at Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro (ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET, with prelims on ESPNEWS/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET). In the main event, Jamahal Hill will make his first title challenge against former division champion Glover Teixeira.
Teixeira (33-8), ranked No. 2 in ESPN's divisional rankings, will have a chance to make history again against Hill (11-1), ranked No. 8. With a win in front of his hometown crowd, Teixeira would surpass his own record as the oldest champion in the promotion's history at 43 years old. Hill earned a fourth-round TKO over Thiago Santos in his last fight to earn the right to fight for the title.
In the co-main event, fans may finally get a conclusion to the seemingly never-ending saga between men's flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo (21-2-1) and interim champion Brandon Moreno (26-2), as the two meet inside the Octagon for a UFC record-setting fourth time. Moreno enters the fight following a third-round stoppage win over Kai Kara-France in July. Figueiredo's last fight was a unanimous decision victory over Moreno at UFC 270 in January 2021.
Former UFC fighter and current ESPN MMA analyst Megan Anderson breaks down both title fights, and Marc Raimondi spoke to Fight Ready MMA striking coach Eddie Cha to get his perspective on the main and co-main events. ESPN's betting experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn also add their insights and analysis on fights they like on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Light heavyweight title fight: Glover Teixeira vs. Jamahal Hill
Megan Anderson, ESPN MMA analyst
This is a classic grappler vs. striker matchup, and it will come down to who can get the fight to their area of expertise and keep it there. For Teixeira, it's about how quickly he can get the fight to the mat. But can he do it safely? He has to avoid getting clipped on the way in. In Hill's last fight against Santos, although he isn't a wrestler, Santos came out and looked to wrestle Hill, but he didn't have the cardio to keep that output up during a five-round fight. Teixeira does, as that is his bread and butter. He can rely on that and fall back on it anytime during a fight. If Teixeira can survive the big shots from Hill early on and force him to wrestle, there's a good chance that Hill will slow as the fight continues.
For Hill to win, he must work off the jab and avoid technical mistakes. One way for him to build confidence is to stop the early takedown attempts, then make Teixeira pay for them by landing a combination or a big shot. That could deter Teixeira from trying to wrestle. In the fight against Jiri Prochazka, whenever Prochazka would switch to southpaw, Teixeira would throw an overhand right to keep Prochazka's hands high, while simultaneously reaching for the lead leg to go for a head outside single-leg takedown. Considering Hill is a natural southpaw, I expect Teixeira to also attempt this on him. Hill has a lot of power, but Teixeira is tough. Hill must be patient and pick his shots well if he plans to finish the former champ.
Eddie Cha, Fight Ready MMA striking coach
How Teixeira wins: Takedowns are going to be huge for him. His jiu-jitsu is far superior and his grappling is excellent. Teixeira is a good striker, too. He puts pressure on his opponents, which should make a difference, especially with the crowd favoring him. Defensively, Teixeira needs to be careful with Hill's power. I'm not surprised Hill is the favorite -- he's younger and a big power puncher. Teixeira is 43 years old. When you're in your 40s, everything counts. Every camp and every fight can take a toll on you. I've seen guys in their late 30s kind of lose it overnight.
How Hill wins: He has to land big shots and put Teixeira away. That's the only natural path for him. It looks like his mindset is right. He reminds me almost of Leon Edwards, who upset Kamaru Usman by knockout last year. He's super hungry and taking things seriously. But this is his first time in a big spot like this -- has he done the work?
X factor: Teixeira's experience and the crowd behind him in Brazil. Teixeira has all the little variables that will help him. Fighting in the most hostile territory will only add more pressure on Hill. People don't realize when you start doing main events on pay-per-view for belts, the media is like times five. You don't know until you get to fight week and fight day.
Prediction Hill only has 13 fights and doesn't have much cage time in those fights. Teixeira is durable, and if he weathers the storm, I think you'll see him take over and Hill will get discouraged. I'm leaning toward Teixeira in this one. He has more ways to win. Hill's only loss was to Paul Craig, a jiu-jitsu guy, and that's a strong point for Teixeira. I know Hill hits hard, but Teixeira is sparring with Alex Pereira, the middleweight champion, every day. And Prochazka couldn't knock him out. I think Teixeira wins, as I could see something on the ground or a decision.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Lean Hill to win (-135). Fight does not go the distance (-650) for parlays. If this fight stays standing, Hill's precise power striking seems a glaring threat to Teixeira's aging chin. But that's still a notable "if." Teixeira has to close the distance, using his clinch game to get the fight to the ground. Then his top control, ground and pound and submissions should dominate rounds and could eventually set up a finish. It is hard to know how well Hill will be able to maintain separation to unleash his hands, but what's more certain is that one of these guys will put the other in a bad spot. The numbers favor Hill, but only slightly. These guys have a long streak of tricky main events, and this fight might be better to pass on outside of prop plays and totals.
Men's flyweight title fight: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno
Megan Anderson, ESPN MMA analyst
In the UFC's first tetralogy, it will be interesting to see how Moreno adjusts. After the fallout surrounding his former coach, James Krause, Moreno was forced to switch teams in the middle of a fight camp. But this isn't his first time in a big fight, nor is he facing a "new" opponent. But his situation surrounding this fight can be hard to ignore as a fighter.
Having trained with former two-division UFC champion Henry Cejudo in preparation for his last fight with Moreno, Figueiredo looked as good as ever. There were changes in his approach leading up to the third fight and his physique, and he put on an incredible performance. Figueiredo has the raw talent. He's got power, grappling and now wrestling. He's become a complete martial artist, and having this drawn-out series with Moreno has allowed him to keep raising his game as they continue to draw the best out of each other.
Eddie Cha, Fight Ready MMA striking coach
How Figueiredo wins: He needs to find creative ways to shut down Moreno's jab. He's used the low calf kick to take away Moreno's front leg, but Moreno adjusted and countered well off of it in the past two fights. Figueiredo should use what we call first-and-thirds. He'll have to parry or block the jabs or avoid them with his footwork, then counter with a strike on his way in. One option is to use the calf kick to get a better angle off the lead hand, or he could come over the top with a cross after dodging the jab. The best thing is still the calf kick, which he does very well. Figueiredo also needs to set up his power shots better. Moreno is hard to hit, but Figueiredo had success when he went to Moreno's body first.
How Moreno wins: He should try to get heavy in grappling exchanges early and make Figueiredo carry his weight. Moreno has the better cardio. In a five-round fight, wearing down your opponent in the early rounds, especially against a guy like Figueiredo, who has had a hard time making weight in the past, is a smart thing to do. That will give you an advantage in the later rounds. A big thing, too, is to get the crowd out of it. Slow things down. It sets the tone for the rest of the fight. Be ugly and gritty the first couple of rounds with grappling and then start working behind the jab later.
X factor: The Brazilian crowd. These fights have been so closely contested that if a round was somewhat even, the crowd could sway the judges in a particular way with "oohs" and "aahs." Moreno needs to win rounds decisively to end them with good optics. Don't allow the judges to get snake-charmed by the crowd. The crowd will erupt at one big shot from Figueiredo, even after Moreno lands two or three. Can Moreno keep it quiet and slow things down? On the other hand, Figueiredo needs to play to that crowd. The biggest thing for me is how Moreno seals up these rounds and not allowing the judges to be a factor.
Prediction: Figueiredo by decision, 3-2. I lean on the fact that the fight is in Brazil. I'm not saying a hometown robbery or anything, but we've seen some shoddy judging of late, and maybe this will be some home cooking. MMA judging has been favoring powerful shots rather than volume, which is why I prefer Figueiredo. Another question is about Moreno's coaching situation. Who is running the corner? What kind of camp has he had? These details and questions matter in a championship fight.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Lean Figueiredo to win (+100). A fourth fight, and somehow the market still can't quite figure these guys out. We know that Moreno can take a couple of rounds with his higher-paced attacks, but we also know that Figueiredo has figured out how to counter those combinations and make Moreno pay. I expect more of the same here. Moreno winning exchanges on volume, but a few damaging counters from Figueiredo that could sway close rounds, or even threaten a finish. Though Moreno is the only one to get a finish in their past three previous meetings, Figueiredo offers much more finishing threats on paper. The lean here is on Figueiredo, but we know from their history there are too many ways for this fight to go to predict the outcome. I'll probably add an "over 1.5 rounds" to parlays with other results and totals elsewhere on the card and avoid getting invested in the winner here.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Welterweight: Lauren Murphy vs. Jessica Andrade
Kuhn: Fight does not go the distance (-120). Andrade, the former women's strawweight champion, has been considering a move to flyweight for a while since losing her belt. But looking back at her last five years, she's only lost to championship-caliber fighters regardless of division, with a path of destruction through everyone else. But Murphy, still in the top five of the division and currently ranked ahead of Andrade, doesn't quite fit the profile of fighters that can handle her long enough to win.
Andrade has performance advantages across the board in striking and grappling metrics, and should be the more technical and powerful fighter during exchanges. The wild card is the size difference of Murphy. Andrade has proven she can handle bigger opponents, and in a three-round fight, assuming she comes out with a fast start in front of a motivating crowd, I don't see Murphy being able to keep up.
Light heavyweight: Paul Craig vs. Johnny Walker
Kuhn: Fight does not go the distance (-650). Craig's submissions are nasty when he can get opponents on the ground. Walker will surely try to avoid that scenario, and, if successful, will have a clear power-striking advantage over Craig. Whichever fighter keeps the fight in their preferred position has a great chance to win with a finish. Combine this in a parlay with the Murphy-Andrade fight not going the distance.
Parker: Walker to win (-190). Walker has a clear path to victory -- keep the fight standing. If Walker can do that successfully, this can be a quick and easy win for him as he is the better striker.
Lightweight: Ismael Bonfim vs. Terrance McKinney
Parker: McKinney to win (-130). I like McKinney here. He will be the better and stronger striker, and he has the wrestling game to fall back on. I don't see where he loses here, so long as he doesn't gas out chasing a finish.
Welterweight: Warlley Alves vs. Nicolas Dalby
Kuhn: Alves to win (-125). Alves will want to test his hands against an aggressive but less dangerous striker in Dalby. Alves has advantages in power and precision, while Dalby offers a higher pace, albeit with poor defense and a history of getting dropped.
Though Dalby is more likely to try for grappling, his takedown success is below average, while the takedown defense of Alves is strong. Alves has better control time and more submission attempts. Regardless, Alves has advantages, which is probably why the market flipped his odds to the favorite. Dalby has grinded and won against some decent names, but he is more dangerous with multiple paths to victory.