Two titles will be on the line this weekend at UFC 281. Middleweight champion Israel Adesanya will defend his belt in the main event against former kickboxing rival and rising UFC star Alex Pereira, and Carla Esparza will defend the women's strawweight title against former champ Zhang Weili in the co-main event at Madison Square Garden in New York (ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET, with prelims on ESPNEWS/ESPN+ at 8 p.m.).
Adesanya (23-1), ESPN's No. 2 on ESPN's men's pound-for-pound rankings, will go for his seventh consecutive middleweight title defense. Pereira (6-1), No. 7 in ESPN's divisional rankings, is on a three-fight win streak including a first-round knockout over Sean Strickland in July. Pereira has previously defeated Adesanya twice in kickboxing and remains the only man who has knocked Adesanya out.
Esparza (19-6), No. 6 in ESPN's women's pound-for-pound rankings, is a two-time UFC women's strawweight champion and is currently riding a six-fight winning streak. Most recently she claimed a split decision win over Rose Namajunas in May to reclaim the title. Weili (22-3), who sits ahead of Esparza in the pound-for-pound rankings at No. 4, enters the fight following a second-round knockout of Joanna Jedrzejczyk in June.
Former UFC fighter and current ESPN MMA analyst Megan Anderson breaks down both title fights. And Brett Okamoto spoke to Fortis MMA coach Sayif Saud to get his perspective on the matchups in the main event and co-main event and ESPN's betting experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn add their insights and analysis on fights they like on the card as well.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Middleweight: Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira
Megan Anderson, ESPN MMA analyst
This is a matchup of two fighters who are very similar stylistically. It's going to come down to the volume and movement of Adesanya versus the power and patience of Pereira. Adesanya is slightly faster than Pereira and he's very elusive -- it's hard for opponents to land their big shots cleanly against him. No one in the middleweight division has been able to figure him out or match his striking IQ, but Pereira could be the one to do it as he already has two wins over Adesanya in kickboxing.
Pereira's technique is very good despite having so much power, which is very rare in this sport. He doesn't telegraph his strikes. Pereira doesn't throw high-volume combinations, but once he starts making his reads and finding his range, that's when he starts to open up his striking. He's like a shark lurking in the water and once he smells blood, that's when he turns it on. There will be a moment, or an opening, for him to land a big strike like his signature left hook. When it happens, he has to make it count.
The question to me is: How does his cardio hold up? We've never seen Pereira go five rounds in the Octagon. However, he has gone three full rounds. The level of competition and strikers that Adesanya has gone the distance with in championship fights has to be accounted for here.
Sayif Saud, Fortis MMA coach
How Adesanya wins: If you watch their two previous fights in kickboxing, they were very competitive. A lot of people thought Adesanya won the first fight and then was winning the second fight until he got knocked out. There is no doubt he can throw with Pereira, because he's done it already. The issue is that Pereira has a power advantage. Adesanya is going to have to manage distance throughout while also trying to hurt Pereira at some point, to get some respect. He's going to have to clearly win rounds with his volume because if Pereira lands a couple of big shots, that could swing the rounds. Judges are weighing damage more than volume, we've seen that switch, so it's very important to not just have ring generalship but clearly cause damage and clearly win the exchanges. I think Adesanya knows that.
How Pereira wins: He has to cut off the cage and make the fight very physical. He's got to land his big shots and put more damage on Adesanya than Adesanya can put volume on him. The guy is very patient and methodical with a lot of experience. He's going to make in-fight adjustments because his standup is very educated. He lulls people in and drifts them toward that left hook. He's a master of timing that punch. It's a matter of finding that big moment, and if he can execute enough so that if he doesn't get a finish, it's still enough to win rounds.
X factor: Pereira's chin. He is very confident in his chin and his power. He'll take one to give one, we've seen that in his previous fights against Adesanya. And if he can do that, he definitely has that death touch in the left hand.
Prediction: I can't call it, but I think it's going to be an aggressive fight. Adesanya's got that chip on his shoulder that he hasn't had in other fights. He had it with Paulo Costa and you saw what he did there. I think he's going to be aggressive, even if it's to his own detriment. It will be an explosive fight.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Adesanya to win (-210). Strictly on paper, Pereira looks like the most dangerous striker that Adesanya has faced in the UFC. And although Pereira owns a knockout victory over Adesanya in kickboxing, in the years since, Adesanya has faced a gauntlet of elite strikers in five-round MMA bouts, while Pereira has not.
The strength of schedule and more consistent performances favor the incumbent champion. Both men likely want a striking war, and neither has landed any takedowns offensively. So a striking war is likely what we'll get. Adesanya is a justifiable favorite and has been tested against pure strikers before. His evasiveness and ability to counter will pair well with Pereira's aggression and looser defense.
Women's strawweight: Carla Esparza vs. Zhang Weili
Megan Anderson, ESPN MMA analyst
Don't think this is just another striker vs. grappler matchup. Esparza's wrestling is on a different level than most women in the UFC, but she's developed a style that blends her striking into her wrestling and it works for her. And more importantly, she's tough. We've seen her take big hits, and sometimes even get rocked, and she will keep coming.
Weili is much more than a striker. Her game is well rounded, both her striking and grappling are top-level. Her power will be the difference in this fight. She has to make Esparza respect the power in her strikes and make her hesitant to close the distance. Esparza has to be conscious of knee strikes. Generally against a wrestler there are openings for strikes like knees, but she should do her best to avoid letting Esparza get a hold of her legs.
Sayif Saud, Fortis MMA coach
How Esparza wins: Esparza's going to have to control where the fight takes place. We know she's a good wrestler and she's very confident in that. She has to execute and win rounds. She'll have to mix in striking, obviously, but it's really about control. Controlling Weili and limiting mistakes, because Weili is more explosive and dynamic.
How Weili wins: She's got these elbows in the clinch that are nasty, and her power in the clinch is so strong. She's going to work some frames in those clinches and punish Esparza when she goes for takedowns. I think she'll keep it on the feet to make Esparza uncomfortable, but don't be surprised if she wrestles at times, too, because she's good at it.
X factor: Esparza's grit. She's a big underdog but she's won the belt now twice, so you have to give her credit for that. She understands how to win fights.
Prediction: Can't predict this one, but Esparza has to survive the early onslaught because there's no question Weili has more horsepower early.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Lean Esparza at (+280). Let's be clear. If this fight stays standing, Weili is capable of doing serious damage to Esparza. And that's what the market is banking on, making a rare instance of a severe underdog champion.
But what if Weili's takedown defense hasn't been well-tested? Other than Namajunas landing two of two takedown attempts, she hasn't faced any opponents with more than one takedown attempt. Esparza will change that immediately. Though she may not always get the first attempt, and opponents obviously know they're coming, Esparza has still managed to win fights with her wrestling. She landed 19 takedowns in her current six-fight win streak, and she averages over a minute of control time for each. The numbers wouldn't pick a wrestling upset straight up, but there's a better chance for Esparza than the current market is giving, and the price could get even better before fight time.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Lightweight: Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Chandler
Kuhn: Poirier to win (-230). In a potential slugfest that could steal the show, we can expect some leather traded early. But Chandler's head strike defense is one of the lowest in the UFC, which has been at the root of his three knockdowns received in just four fights. Both men have accurate, high-paced striking, but the porous defense of Chandler means he'll be eating more shots in each exchange. Meanwhile, Poirier has developed into a methodical striker, capable of surviving a firefight while dishing out damage over rounds. His five-round victory over Max Holloway was a decisive display of that. However, Chandler admittedly has a big puncher's chance, that Poirier's chin may not withstand if tested too often.
Poirier has a much more dangerous ground game, and this is his fight round-to-round the longer it goes. If Chandler doesn't get the KO (which is an enticing +400), then Poirier is a stable play.
Women's flyweight: Erin Blanchfield vs. Molly McCann
Parker: Blanchfield to win (-400), use in parlay. The winner of this matchup could be in line for a title shot in the not-so-distant future. I think between the two, Blanchfield's fight IQ and grappling are going to be the deciding factor. As long as she doesn't brawl with McCann, she should be able to get the fight to the mat and get the win.
Lightweight: Matt Frevola vs. Ottman Azaitar
Parker: Azaitar to win (-120). Both these men always bring it and look for the knockout. However, the difference between the two is the defense or lack thereof from Frevola. Frevola has no problem taking a shot in order to deliver one. Sometimes that can work, but against a knockout artist in Azaitar, it just will not. Granted, Azaitar has had a two-year layoff, but Frevola is stylistically a great opponent for him to face in his return. Look for Azaitar and Frevola to trade punches early. I expect Azaitar to land shots and his power will be too much for Frevola.
Light heavyweight: Carlos Ulberg vs. Nicolae Negumereanu
Kuhn: Negumereanu to win (+110). The Romanian wrestler, Negumereanu has spent nearly half his fight time in contact with his opponent, which could stifle the kickboxing of Ulberg. The striking certainly favors Ulberg, who is accurate and powerful while very aggressive. Neither man avoids strikes well, so damage will be done quickly if it stays on the feet.
But Ulberg has defended only one takedown in his four UFC appearances to date, so we have no evidence he can stuff the inevitable wrestling from Negumereanu, especially if Ulberg moves forward often. At even or plus money, backing a champion wrestler is a reasonable play on the underdog.