Two light heavyweights look to shake up the rankings as Thiago Santos and Jamahal Hill go head-to-head at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday.
Santos, No. 9 in ESPN's divisional rankings, will be aiming to work his way back into title contention with a win over a rising prospect in Hill. Santos' last fight ended in a unanimous decision loss to Magomed Ankalaev. Meanwhile, Hill, who is unranked by ESPN, is quickly making a name for himself in the UFC. He enters the bout on a two-fight win streak after first-round finishes against Jimmy Crute and Johnny Walker.
The live finales of Season 30 of The Ultimate Fighter will also be on the card. Women's flyweights Brogan Walker and Juliana Miller and heavyweights Zac Pauga and Mohammed Usman will fight, with UFC contracts on the line for both winners.
Brett Okamoto touched base with an MMA coaching veteran to get his perspective on the matchup in the main event and how things could play out inside the Octagon. ESPN's betting experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn added their insights and analysis for everything from the main event to some intriguing bets they like lower down the card.
Light heavyweight: Thiago Santos vs. Jamahal Hill
Rick Little, SikJitsu MMA coach
How Hill wins: I think he's got a little more speed. If he can play the in-and-out game by changing up his range and landing straight shots, like jabs -- the speed will take over for him. Especially, in the mid to later rounds. As you get into these heavier divisions, sometimes power is what gets noticed, but Hill is athletic and quick, and he uses those skills well. I met him on the same Contender Series when we had Terrance McKinney fight, and they remind me a little of each other. Unorthodox striking, which might mean it gets underrated, but I think he can stand with Santos.
How Santos wins: Technically, he's the better fighter. He's more skilled, but that doesn't mean he's going to be able to land his shots on the quicker guy. Santos is going to need to use kicks to slow Hill down, a lot of leg kicks. If he doesn't slow him down, I think he might be in for a long night.
X-factor: The smaller Octagon at the Apex. It's the most underrated variable in the sport, right now. That cage favors the brawler, so it flips how I pick this fight. I believe it matters that much. That said, this is also a five-round fight, which I think favors Hill. So, they kind of cancel each other out, but I look at Octagon size as the biggest factor.
Prediction: It's a coin flip, a really good fight. If I have to lean one way, I look at cage size as the determining factor to give Santos the edge.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Santos to win (+250). Hill's striking has been brutal at times during his UFC run. But, while he's taking on an older and more damaged opponent, the price is just too high given the talent of Santos. Hill has range, accuracy and finishing ability. However, Santos has faced similar fighters. With his raw power, and his experience against elite talent, he will have a chance to get a win here. Even in losses, Santos competed well against the division's best.
On the feet, it will be all about Santos' ability to counterstrike. The wild card will be the ground game. Santos has the better grappling stats and credentials, but he's rarely taken fights there due to his successful boxing skills. It's an uphill battle for Santos, but this is a small value play due to the current prices.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Welterweight: Vicente Luque vs Geoff Neal
Parker: Luque to win (-170). Neal has gone the distance in each of his last three fights. Prior to that, he was a finishing machine, stopping four of his first five opponents in the UFC. However, Luque is extremely tough and durable. In order to get the win, Neal needs to follow the same blueprint that Belal Muhammad used against Luque. Stick and move, and mix in the wrestling.
Unfortunately, that is just not Neal's style and he doesn't have the same cardio or wrestling as Muhammad. I am going with Luque here. Neal may possess a slight edge in power, but in regards to striking output and the ground game, I heavily favor Luque.
Heavyweight: Augusto Sakai vs. Serghei Spivac
Parker: Under 2.5 rounds (-163). Not only is Sakai on a three-fight losing streak, but all three of those losses came by way of TKO/KO. I expect the same result to happen here. The difference between these two fighters is the wrestling and grappling skills of Spivac. Both men carry the power to get a KO, but Spivac has shown us that he has no issue taking the fight to the mat and finishing it there.
Kuhn: Spivac to win (-270). We might see a striker versus grappler matchup at heavyweight between Spivac and Sakai. Sakai could have a slight edge in technical striking, but his 43% takedown defense is not going to last long against the frequent takedowns from Spivac. Spivac has spent nearly half of his fight time on the mat, and he's been in control for the majority of it, which should be enough to win rounds, or eventually set up a finish. He makes a good parlay anchor.
Women's flyweight: Ariane Lipski vs. Priscila Cachoeira
Kuhn: Lipski to win (-170). Lipski has some nice advantages over Cachoeira. Lipski has more power and will be taking on a fighter with the worst head strike defense on the card. That creates a huge liability on the feet that Lipski could exploit. If the fight goes to the ground, it's likely that Lipski will be in control. Cachoeira has spent just five percent of her ground time in control and has no submission attempts to date. That leaves some value on Lipski.
Lightweight: Terrance McKinney vs. Erick Gonzalez
Parker: McKinney to win by TKO/KO (+120). McKinney is the biggest favorite on the card and rightfully so. Despite suffering his first UFC loss in his last bout, McKinney was still impressive. He almost put away Drew Dober and that is no easy task. I expect McKinney to make quick work of Gonzalez as he should be the more skilled striker and grappler.
Welterweight: Bryan Battle vs. Takashi Sato
Parker: Battle to win (-270), add prop Battle to win by sub (+275). When Sato fights, there's been a consistent theme for him, thus far: If he doesn't finish his opponent, he loses. On top of that, three of his four losses in the UFC have been via submission. That doesn't fare well in a matchup with Battle, a submission ace. I really like Battle in this matchup. He has great cardio, which will help him stay away from the power of Sato, and he's also durable. Look for Battle to weather the early storm and eventually get this fight to the mat, where he will either submit Sato or grind out a decision victory.