NEW YORK -- Two of the most anticipated rematches in recent history will headline UFC 268 on Saturday at Madison Square Garden.
Welterweight champ Kamaru Usman will meet Colby Covington for the second time, nearly two years after defeating him via fifth-round TKO in late 2019 in what remains Usman's most competitive title defense. Covington has impatiently waited for this second crack and expects to take full advantage.
In the co-main event, strawweight champion Rose Namajunas, who's no stranger to stunning finishes in UFC title fights, faces Zhang Weili in a rematch of Namajunas' belt-winning victory in April.
Namajunas stunned Zhang with a head-kick knockout in the first round at UFC 261. In order for her to remain champion past Saturday, she will have to win a second time against Zhang, who has moved her training to Fight Ready MMA in Arizona.
Who has the edge in these second chapters? ESPN asked several experts for their breakdowns and predictions.
Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington
Javier Mendez, American Kickboxing Academy coach
How Usman wins: Kamaru can win any way he wants. He's at such a high level right now. He's at the highest level there is. And Colby is no slouch -- if it weren't for Kamaru, I think Colby could probably beat anyone. But seriously, Kamaru is just that damn good.
How Covington wins: Luck. Colby is going to have to get lucky. Push the pace and hit him with a good strike that hurts him. That's his only chance.
X factor: A strong mentality. For Colby to have a chance, he has to land that big shot. And the only way to do it is to stand right in the fire pit.
Prediction: Kamaru gets it done with expert striking. He's become such a sharpshooter.
Kirian Fitzgibbons, CSA Gym coach
How Usman wins: Just don't underestimate Colby. Having that win already, that finish, it could make Usman too confident. But with coach Trevor Wittman leading the way, I don't think that will happen. Colby is very volume based, but Kamaru pushed a high pace as well in the first fight. He answered with a lot of things that negated what Colby does to other opponents. Usman needs to focus on the things he did in the first one to stop Colby from being Colby.
How Covington wins: Colby needs to understand that it really is his pace that is going to win these high-level fights for him, so he's going to have to push even harder in this one to break Usman down. Covington was biting on a lot of what Kamaru was doing last time, and it affected his pace. He needs to use more fakes and feints to bait reactions out of Kamaru and then put volume on him. Strike a bit more and also increase his accuracy. He should be looking to land on the button rather than just putting strikes out there.
X factor: Colby was at American Top Team last time. Kamaru was with striking coach Henri Hooft. They've both changed camps since the first fight. Those changes in coaching for both athletes bring an unknown to this one.
Prediction: Usman by decision.
James Krause, Glory MMA coach and UFC welterweight
How Usman wins: Usman is one of those guys who is at the top of the food chain, but is clearly improving every time. That's so rare for someone of his caliber. I think he's going to pick up where he left off. There aren't a lot of different paths to victory. I think wrestling is a wash and neither of them wants to waste energy on it. Usman has really gotten a lot better in his striking, so pick up where he left off and land power shots.
How Covington wins: Colby has to mix things up and keep Usman guessing. Usman is so good at open mat striking. He's got good power and a good jab, but he can be defensively flawed, if that makes sense. Colby can kick a little better, and mix in some takedowns just to keep Usman guessing. The rounds Colby won in the first fight, he did a good job of blending things together and throwing everything. If he gets into a boxing match with Usman, he'll lose.
X factor: Usman's power and the confidence he has in it. Colby needs to be aware of that power earlier in this fight.
Prediction: Usman by decision.
Eric Nicksick, Xtreme Couture MMA coach
How Usman wins: I think Usman just needs to keep the fight on the feet and use his anti-wrestling. That is where he can expose Colby -- in the striking department. Usman was already good there, but after what he's done with coach Trevor Wittman this last year, he's even better. He can put on a clinic. He does a lot out of both stances now. He does what we call trace steps, where let's say he throws a double jab, cross -- if the cross just misses, most of the time he'll use that cross now as his new lead hand and fight out of southpaw. There are a lot of advantages in that, and it suits him well with his length and range. He's also very subtle in adding head feints, level changes -- he keeps you guessing.
How Covington wins: When you look at both fighters on the exterior, they are very similar. They have cardio, wrestling and pressure. When you start splitting hairs, I feel like Colby has to implement some wrestling. I don't think he's the better wrestler, but he has to make Usman respect the idea that he will try to wrestle him. Colby doesn't want to get back into the same ego fight they had in the first meeting, where they're just standing in front of each other. He'll lose that. He has to implement some wrestling, some clinch. Force Usman to defend a takedown and maybe take away some sting from his punches.
X factor: Body work. If you go back to the first fight, what Usman did with the body work helped set up those head shots. And it also impacted Colby's gas tank. I've held pads for Colby and he can go, so I think it was a smart choice by Usman to chip away at this dude's legs and crack him to the body.
Prediction: Usman by decision.
Rose Namajunas vs. Zhang Weili
Javier Mendez
How Namajunas wins: Rose's route to winning is the same as last time. Stay at range and sharp shoot.
How Zhang wins: Weili is training with former UFC flyweight and bantamweight champion Henry Cejudo now, so obviously we know the game plan. Rose's team knows the game plan. It's to come in and wrestle. Let's see if Zhang can execute. She needs to pressure, stay off the middle, kick hard, punch hard, strike into the clinch and put Rose up against the cage. If she can do those types of things, she's good. At a distance, Rose wins all day long. So turn it into a dog fight.
X factor: What if Rose can also thrive in a dog fight? Rose can win that way, too.
Prediction: I'm going with Rose.
Kirian Fitzgibbons
How Namajunas wins: Rose has some of the most beautiful striking in all of MMA, which is saying something because she doesn't really come from a striking background. It's just the work and connection she has with coach Trevor Wittman. That doesn't mean she can't get hurt, but if the fight stays standing, it's not going to be any different from the first one. Rose will win.
How Zhang wins: Weili is now with Eric Albarracin and Henry Cejudo at Fight Ready. You're going to see a very different version of Weili in this fight because of that. Henry has created a science down there, breaking down how to train. Weili is a very explosive athlete, and if she can embrace the wrestling, she'll cut down her disadvantage in striking.
X factor: I believe Weili really struggled in that last fight with the walkout. The reception she got in Jacksonville, the boos, that really impacted her mentally. It showed a little crack in her mental game. But Rose has also struggled with mental confidence, and she's been vocal about those challenges. So both have experienced confidence-related impacts on their performances.
Prediction: I love Albarracin and Cejudo at Fight Ready, but with a heavy heart, I pick Rose to finish Weili again.
James Krause
How Namajunas wins: I don't see Rose winning a decision here. I feel like the longer the fight goes, the more it favors Weili. Rose needs to get her out of there.
How Zhang wins: If I'm Weili and her team, I'm trying to get my hands on Rose as early as possible. One thing Rose has shown is she's not an overly physical fighter. Rose at range is super dangerous, obviously -- we saw that in the first fight. You can't let her sit at range and make it pretty. If I'm Weili, I have to get into the clinch, make it dirty, take her down and beat her up. Be physical.
X factor: Range. If Rose can stay at distance, I see her picking Weili apart. If Weili gets her hands on her and beats her in the clinch, steals a takedown, she'll win.
Prediction: Weili by decision.
Eric Nicksick
How Namajunas wins: Lateral movement. She's so good at it. Draw Weili's big hooks out and beat her down the middle with straight, linear punches. That's the game plan we saw in the first fight. Her movement looked great and she set up that head kick by chopping the inside low kick.
How Zhang wins: I think Weili was on the right track in the first fight with her low kicks. That's a good way to take away movement. But she wasn't setting them up with anything. I think her kicks need to be there but she needs to set them up better with her hands and then close that distance. I think she needs to work from the body up.
X factor: Rose's coach, Trevor Wittman. And throw Pat Barry in there, too. Her entire corner. What Trevor does game plan-wise, what he does for Rose's mindset, it's so important. And then Pat is more of the hype guy. You have chaos and calculation in the same corner, and they know their fighter better than anyone.
Prediction: I'm gonna say Rose wins again, by submission. Rear-naked choke.