Tony Ferguson was on a 12-fight winning streak and scheduled to face Khabib Nurmagomedov for the UFC lightweight championship. For Ferguson, the April title bout could have been a crowning achievement many years in the making. But the coronavirus pandemic changed everything. Nurmagomedov was unable to leave Russia and return to the U.S. to fight, so the bout was canceled.
Plan B wasn't so bad, though. Ferguson would instead face Justin Gaethje, with an interim title on the line. The winner would later get a shot at Nurmagomedov.
But that didn't work out so well for Ferguson either. He fought Gaethje on May 9 and took a horrific beating in a fifth-round TKO loss.
Now Ferguson is back, facing Charles Oliveira in the co-main event of UFC 256 on Saturday in Las Vegas. Oliveira has won seven fights in a row, all finishes. He has more UFC submissions (14) than anyone else in the promotion's history.
Will Ferguson still be feeling the effects of the May beatdown? At age 36, in his 30th pro fight, will "El Cucuy" still be on top of his game?
This co-main event, which will take place right before Saturday's flyweight title fight between Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno, is filled with intrigue, featuring two fighters known for being finishers and for their exciting styles.
Who will gain a leg up in the stacked UFC lightweight division? We asked several top coaches and fighters for their thoughts.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for clarity and brevity.
Kevin Lee, UFC lightweight (fought both Ferguson and Oliveira)
Tony has got better standup and Oliveira is better on the ground, for sure. Tony should win it, because Oliveira is not that great of a wrestler. But once you look at momentum, you look at age, you look at the damage Tony has taken in his last few fights, all that looks good in Oliveira's favor.
I'm kind of leaning towards Oliveira, but really, Tony should win it. He's got more skills standing up and he should be able to dictate where the fight takes place. If it goes to the ground, he might be in a little more trouble. But I don't know, it's hard to make a prediction, they're really similar. If you make me choose, I'm gonna say Oliveira.
Eric Nicksick, Xtreme Couture MMA coach
This is a crossroads fight for Ferguson. You hear UFC president Dana White talking about guys getting cut, it makes you think: If Yoel Romero is on the chopping block, who else is? This fight is very interesting to me in a lot of regards. Ferguson is a staple in the lightweight division, a perennial top-five guy. Oliveira has dabbled at 145 pounds and has looked good at 155. Honest to god, Oliveira is a tough guy to bet on. I don't know if I want to put money on this guy or not. He's lost in some weird fashion.
Stylistically, when I look at this fight, you think about Oliveira's ground game, what he's capable of doing. I think Ferguson uses anti-wrestling to negate any ground threat that [Oliveira] has. I think Ferguson is going to put on a clinic. Oliveira has problems when the other guy gets in the middle and doesn't really get fazed by Oliveira's offerings. You can kind of see the guy slowly kind of wilt. Ferguson is the kind of guy who could make him wilt like that. This should be a showcase fight for Ferguson.
I think you do have to look into Ferguson and how he looked against Gaethje. Oliveira looked good against Kevin Lee. Ferguson is kind of scrambly, and those scrambles aren't very smart against a guy like Oliveira, who can catch you in those scrambles. Me personally, I think you have to keep [the fight] on the feet as much as possible. Keep my back off the cage, take center and really try to pick this guy apart at length. Oliveira has length too, but he's more of like a Nate or Nick Diaz, a volume puncher. He has good power off the volume, but I don't really see that being a problem for Tony. I think Tony gets a TKO.
James Krause, UFC welterweight/Glory MMA head coach
I feel like Ferguson's fight with Gaethje was a pivotal fight for him in that he took a lot of damage, and I've just seen fights like that really take a toll on people's careers. This is a very, very important fight for Tony Ferguson. He's kind of in a must-win. I know he's only lost that one fight and it was to an elite, but I feel like he has to win this because Charles is undervalued in this fight.
It's three rounds, [and Oliveira] does really well in three-rounders. His jiu-jitsu is absolutely amazing, his striking has improved greatly. He seems to have gotten rid of some other issues of the past, cardio and things like that. This is a coin flip for me. I'm kind of leaning towards Oliveira -- I see Oliveira winning a decision. He's younger. He hasn't been in those wars that Tony has. At some point, guys like [Oliveira] have to have a breakout fight, and I'm guessing this could be it.
Sayif Saud, Fortis MMA head coach
I think Oliveira is one of the most dangerous guys in the division. He has more submissions than anybody else. He is no joke. Oliveira seems like he's trending up, whereas Tony looked pretty old in his last fight. He looked a little slower. I'm taking Oliveira as the underdog. I think Oliveira has tons of tools to win and his boxing has gotten so much better. People don't realize that. He's knocking guys out with power. Look what he did to Jared Gordon [first-round KO in November 2019].
The thing about Oliveira is sometimes he drops the ball in a big moment, like in his loss to Anthony Pettis [third-round submission in August 2016]. If Tony wins, it's no surprise. He's so tough and he can take so much punishment. In a three-round fight, Tony is hard to deal with. He can cut you [with] an elbow -- there are so many variables with Tony Ferguson. But skill for skill right now, I think Oliveira has the better straight boxing and he obviously has the best submission game. I don't know if he can get Ferguson down, though.
Oliveira is dangerous everywhere. Can he get it done in three rounds? Ferguson is just going to keep coming. Gaethje was crushing him and he stayed there until the fifth round. I've never seen anybody get hit that much.
Beneil Dariush, UFC lightweight
I think Charles is going to come out fast, throw some strikes out there and ideally try to finish it in the first round. Tony needs to be Tony and just go out and be awkward. Tony does have good takedown defense. Even a wrestler like Kevin Lee didn't get all of his takedowns right off the bat, so I just think Tony needs to go out, be himself, wear him down and take over in the second and the third rounds.
I think Tony has this one in the bag. I don't think Charles has the ability to finish Tony early, and Charles is not the kind of guy to last long. I don't think it's a cardio issue, I think it's more his style. He's going to wear himself out early. That's my prediction for this fight. Either Tony Ferguson by unanimous decision or Tony gets a finish in the third round.
Eddie Cha, Fight Ready striking coach
I don't like how Tony looked in his last fight. It almost looked like Father Time started to catch up to Tony a little bit. Someone with the speed of Oliveira, who can touch and move and has a phenomenal ground game too is tough. I heard what Ferguson's game plan is going to be, and I do like it. But that's a super tough fight. What I do like about Tony is he's a bigger guy and he usually finds a way to win.
If you look at Oliveira's fights, he's always had trouble with bigger guys, besides Kevin Lee. He lost to Paul Felder, Max Holloway, kind of like the taller, bigger guys. It's a three-round fight, which makes it interesting if Tony just tries to pressure him, get him to the cage and tires him out a little bit. I think with the speed factor, Oliveira is going to stay kick-heavy a lot, move laterally. Tony might not catch him for three rounds. If it were five rounds, I'd probably pick Tony. In three rounds, I give a slight edge to Oliveira.
Duke Roufus, Roufusport head coach
It's a hell of a fight. I'm glad Charles is finally getting some of his due. He's a tremendous fighter and has been very underrated. He started very young in the UFC. Him and Tony matching up is insanely fun. They're both great on the feet. Charles has that Chute Boxe Muay Thai style that is a little more conventional. Tony is gonna flip the script a little. They both could submit each other on the mat. They both could knock each other out on the feet.
The difference for Tony is the "it" factor and what Tony shows up after losing against Gaethje. I think a hungry Tony is gonna show up. He's at the twilight of his career. He's got a family. But Charles is no easy task. I had Jared Gordon fight him in Sao Paulo last year, and Charles caught him with a great punch. It was strategic, timed him well. I think Charles has matured a lot as a fighter. His mentality is stronger. Tony is getting a little older. It's a pick 'em in my book.
The only thing I'd say is I think Tony is the biggest guy Charles has fought. Tony is a big 155er. The physicality could play a factor. Charles is on a hell of a run. Tony was on one before the Gaethje fight. I think both deserve a title shot, a crack at that belt at some point. I like watching both of them fight. I'm just gonna kick back and enjoy the spectacle.
Tyson Chartier, New England Cartel coach
I think the biggest struggle is if Oliveira is gonna make weight. I saw a photo on Twitter and he's already in the sauna on a Tuesday. You generally should not be cutting water on the Tuesday of a fight week. If he's already trying to deplete water, that's not a good sign. I'm concerned about that. And then Ferguson, coming off a loss, I don't think we're gonna see him hungrier than he is now. He's trying to get better. When guys get like that, they're more dangerous. He's looking at the holes in the boat and trying to fill them.
Time is undefeated, though. I don't think Ferguson is quite over the hill yet. Gaethje is just a beast. You can't really look too much [into] how you fight Gaethje and apply it to anything else. I don't put too much stock into that. Look at that fight camp. Ferguson was in a never-ending fight camp due to the pandemic. My fighter Calvin Kattar was on that card originally, and I saw how hard it was for our team. It was basically an 18-week fight camp for Ferguson with an opponent change. I imagine that played a role.
Ferguson is coming in, maybe he made some tweaks. I think he has all the skill to get rid of Oliveira. I think Oliveira is not gonna be able to push for three rounds. I think Tony is able to overwhelm him. I think he'll finish [Oliveira]. He'll get Oliveira tired and catch him. If it's not right away, maybe late second or early third round.
Additional reporting by ESPN's Brett Okamoto and Ariel Helwani.