It's a truth of combat sports: The card is always subject to change. And no one knows that better right now than UFC middleweight Jack Hermansson.
Hermansson (21-5) will look to end 2020 on a high note this weekend, when he headlines UFC Fight Night on Saturday in Las Vegas. Originally, Hermansson was supposed to face a very popular, and very highly ranked, opponent in Darren Till. Till was forced to withdraw, however, and replaced with Kevin Holland, one of the best middleweights of 2020.
Then, one week ago, Holland tested positive for COVID-19 and was replaced by Marvin Vettori.
It's a potentially tough spot now for Hermansson, who is the No. 6 middleweight in ESPN's rankings and has everything to lose. He's already in title contention, with a 5-1 record in his past six outings. Vettori (15-3-1) is not ranked inside the top 10, but the 27-year-old is clearly on the rise, and would catapult up the rankings with a victory on Saturday.
Who gets the win in this 185-pound matchup? ESPN asked several experts for their breakdowns and predictions.
Marc Montoya, coach, Factory X
Hermansson's ground game has shown to be pretty lethal, and it's something Vettori -- on short notice -- you're not going to be able to work around it. You're just going to have to navigate around it and say, ''Stay out of these positions.'' Vettori's best opportunity is on the feet, but Hermansson has shown he'll drag you to where he's best.
I think one of the issues with Hermansson, emotionally he's gone through three opponents. I've been there before. OK, it's this guy, now it's this guy, shift gears, just kidding, it's this guy. I've been there as a coach. One of the hardest things to do there is not get caught up in too much game-planning. Sometimes, you'll try to throw this huge game plan together on short notice and it stifles the fighter. When Anthony Smith fought [Mauricio "Shogun" Rua], we got that fight on like seven days' notice. I sat at my table and wrote down a full page of breakdown, and my wife was like, ''What's wrong?'' And I said, ''I just feel like there's no way we're going to be able to execute any of this.'' And she said, ''Isn't that your answer? Don't try to do that, just have him be himself.'' I threw that piece of paper away and went to Anthony and said, ''Hey, listen, just need you to be yourself in this.'' It took away the navigation of game-planning.
If Hermansson and his team do something along those lines, you allow Hermansson to be special like he is. If they don't, and go, "We've got to change this, change that," I know it will handcuff him potentially, and you could see an upset if that happens. And Vettori is fighting a much higher-ranked guy, but he can't go in there thinking he has nothing to lose. He has to see this as an opportunity to jump the rankings, because if you go in thinking you have nothing to lose, I've seen it where athletes will almost accept it's OK if they lose. A lot of this fight is mental on both sides. I think Hermansson will win, by submission.
James Krause, Glory MMA
It's intriguing, because Hermansson has been training for the complete opposite style than what he's facing now. What I like about Vettori is he's a big, physical, durable guy and he's really difficult to walk down. What I like about Hermansson is his grappling is so good, he kind of says ''F-- you'' to the guy he's fighting and forces the fight, because he knows if he ends up in the clinch or overcommits, he's able to get ahold of guys and that's where he really shines, is on the ground.
Where I think Hermansson will do really well is that blend area, blending the punches and the takedowns all together. He's so dangerous on the ground that he can really throw hard, his striking isn't the best in the division, but what makes it good is the threat of the takedown. All that being said, Vettori is really a guy who flies under the radar. I don't think he gets the credit he deserves. I think this is a big step up in competition for him though. I really like Hermansson in this, I just feel stylistically he matches up tough and he's been fighting much higher level competition.
'Captain' Eric Albarracin, Fight Ready/Pitbull Brothers MMA
I'm leaning towards Marvin Vettori. I like his aggression and he's been wanting a fight for a long time. The will to fight is there. His gym, MMA Kings, has faced Hermansson already, and they hopefully learned a lesson, ''Hey, let's be wary of his strong point, which is on the ground. Let's work on our takedown defense.'' If my guy already lost to that guy, I would fix those mistakes. Kelvin Gastelum lost to Hermansson by a heel hook, so we've got to train heel hooks, and more importantly we have to stay out of them. They have that knowledge at that camp and Vettori has been calling out everybody, dying for a fight. I think Vettori will sprawl and brawl and beat him on the feet. Vettori is a stud. His striking and pressure is more than what Hermansson does, but Hermansson's got that jiu-jitsu. He's got a couple nice takedowns, but I think Vettori is prepared for those takedowns.
Deron Winn, UFC middleweight
I've always thought Hermansson is a dark horse in this division. He poses a threat to a lot of guys. Watching his fights, it looks like he has that weird, raw strength, so when he grabs ahold of people, he doesn't let go and people are surprised when they feel his strength. I think his keys are to get to Vettori's body and grab him. He has a strong bodylock and that's probably credited to his Greco-Roman credentials as a wrestler, and on the ground he has a BJJ black belt and just looks really strong with submissions. He's also got that big frame, but his footwork is a little basic. He's susceptible to the leg kick. If I was Vettori, I would be attacking his lead leg right away. But Hermansson has the experience of a five-round fight and he's shown he's durable.
On Vettori's end, I like to call him "Mouthy Marvin." He's a bully in the cage, he likes to use verbal warfare and get in his opponent's head. He's an all-around athlete. He should attack that lead leg and expand that distance where he won't get grabbed and put up against the cage. He can find success in the pocket, but I think he should use the stick-and-move strategy in this fight, to stay away from Hermansson, at least early on. I don't know if a lot of people follow Vettori's career, they might think this is his toughest challenge, but he had a split decision loss to the phenom champion Israel Adesanya in 2018. I don't think this kid is scared of anything. I think he is one of those guys who believes he can be a champion and can beat anybody. And he can, but he has to fight his matchup, his style and force his game plan.
I think Vettori has a bright future, but I'm going with Hermansson to either win by submission or grind his way to a decisive decision. I'll make my prediction Hermansson by submission, third round.