The final UFC Fight Night on Fight Island in July is headlined by a must-see main event between former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker and middleweight contender Darren Till. This will be Whittaker's first fight since he lost his belt to Israel Adesanya last October at UFC 243. Till enters Saturday's bout, his second at middleweight, coming off a split decision win over Kelvin Gastelum at UFC 244. Till moved up to 185 pounds after losing back-to-back fights to Jorge Masvidal and Tyron Woodley at welterweight.
Plenty of questions surround this fight, as the two stars of the sport are at a crossroads. Whittaker spoke earlier this year about spending more time with his family, then rediscovered the urge to get back into the Octagon. Till is now at a weight that suits him, but this is a major step up in talent in the division, despite what he was able to accomplish throughout his tenure at welterweight.
ESPN MMA analyst Chael Sonnen examines the middleweight bout and provides a glimpse into the type of action we can expect this weekend on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
The big picture
Can you believe Darren Till asked for this fight? Nobody calls out Robert Whittaker. Till must see something that he likes, or that he can exploit, to want this fight.
I believe Till thinks he's faster than Whittaker. Israel Adesanya is the only person to stand with Whittaker and win that battle, so I think Till sees his own skills as superior.
Till is a player at middleweight, and he's the only top contender -- outside of Paulo Costa and Adesanya -- who has never lost at the weight. Yes, his record at middleweight is 1-0, but it's still a 0.
Whittaker is better and more experienced. What's this fight mean to him? His most recent match was for a title and in front of a UFC-record-breaking crowd of 57,127 fans in Melbourne, Australia. This fight will be the complete opposite -- there's no title, no crowd. Does he want to dig deep and climb that mountain again? That's the question.
If he's holding thoughts and doubts from his last match, it could make him shy to engage. We see that often with fighters after their first knockout loss.
Physically, both are finishers with three-fourths tank of high-octane fuel. Neither has demonstrated the kind of late-round, gut-check heroics you'd associate with a George St-Pierre, a Dan Henderson or ... a Chael Sonnen. Till is arguably a tad faster and better at range. Whittaker is stronger and arguably better in the clinch. Both guys have won big, and both have folded their hands and thrown their cards in before the final deal. Both face similar challenges. This is going to be a fun fight.
How does Till win?
Till needs to make first contact and make it hard. He needs to reinforce any doubts Whittaker has as soon as possible in the fight. He needs to show his speed and make Whittaker question himself, something that he has publicly done since his Adesanya loss.
Till also needs to follow the basics of hands up, chin down. This is not something Till does naturally.
Till is awkward -- he holds his hands different, kicks different. He does what's called a "blitz," where he will throw seven to eight strikes at a time as opposed to the traditional three. He'll need to connect repeatedly on these to get to Whittaker.
How does Whittaker win?
Robert Whittaker explains how a Christmas Day training session made him feel burned out, causing him to question if he still wanted to fight and to realize he needed a break.
The key to victory for Whittaker is based on psychology, not physiology. Both have great offensive weapons that could nullify the other or bring about destruction of the opponent. But of the two of them, only one has admitted to being abjectly terrified before fights, and that is Till. So if Whittaker can tap into that fear, either through sheer ferocity or some form of unexpected or unorthodox attack, he can shatter Till's fragile psychological ecosystem.
That said, from an offensive standpoint, Whittaker strikes and then gets out. Most guys trade during fights -- you go, I go. Whittaker attacks and then gets out of the way. That will be incredibly important against Till.
If this fight goes to the ground, who has the edge?
We haven't seen much of either on the ground, but Whittaker has excellent ground-and-pound, so it should motivate Till to scramble off his back if he gets put there. Whittaker has the tools to get himself back to his feet, but neither has lots of takedown efforts in their past, so I think the ground will be an unlikely option. If it does get there, give the edge to Whittaker.
If the fight remains standing, as expected, who has the striking edge?
Till is awkward and quick. Whittaker is more powerful and technically more sound, but when an opponent throws strikes at angles you aren't used to seeing, it becomes a problem. That's why I lean toward Till.
What's the X factor?
Five rounds. Whittaker has been in the main event spotlight many times and seems to hold up. Till has had his conditioning questioned time and time again. I expect Till to swirl Whittaker early and look for the finish. Like Mike Tyson famously said, "If you try to get a KO, you won't win a decision."
Prediction:
Till. Neither of these guys has shown a propensity for bite-down-on-your-mouthpiece-and-blast-away-type exchanges. So Till stands a slight edge in fighting inside his preferences, which could lead to Whittaker overcommitting and eating one on the chin.