UFC 251 features three title fights at the top of the card, each with a unique story surrounding it. Kamaru Usman puts his welterweight championship on the line against former training partner Gilbert Burns. Alexander Volkanovski defends the featherweight title against the man he took it from, Max Holloway. And Petr Yan and Jose Aldo face off for the bantamweight title that was left vacant by the surprising retirement of Henry Cejudo.
The Volkanovski-Holloway rematch is particularly intriguing. In their first matchup, Volkanovski solved Holloway in a way that no other fighter had in the past. Through vicious leg kicks and brilliant timing, Volkanovski emerged as champion in a truly cerebral fashion.
Holloway is now at a crossroads. The man many considered the featherweight GOAT has much to prove in this rematch, and the adjustments he's made since their meeting last December will be crucial to his success.
In this breakdown, UFC fighter and ESPN MMA analyst Gilbert Melendez examines the featherweight title bout and the unique nature of a rematch in the UFC.
The big picture
It's always challenging to be in a rematch, especially when you've been in there for 25 minutes with a fighter and you're potentially going to have another 25 minutes. It becomes a bit intimate. You start getting to know your opponent really well. Obviously, Volkanovski and Holloway already respect each other, but now it's Volkanovski's time to stay disciplined and continue to fight the fight that he did and continue where he left off. And it's on Holloway to come back to the table with strong adjustments.
This is a great fight. Volkanovski did everything right in the first fight, so I wonder what his game plan will be. He did a great job of slipping and bobbing and, of course, landing those leg kicks. I think that approach caught Holloway off guard, and Volkanovski did a really good job of slipping his way in and landing some good combinations. It's what I like to call the blitz, where he comes with a flurry of punches and pushes forward, and will either land some punches or, if he doesn't reach Max or misses, he finishes with a leg kick. I thought that was great.
I think Max makes some adjustments. I think he switches stances. Maybe he's better at conventional, but I think he's fantastic at southpaw. I think that southpaw position will allow him to protect his leg a bit more.
Shifting stances will keep him light on his feet initially and really neutralize the kick by checking it, feinting and making Volkanovski miss. Holloway loves to box, but for this fight, using his kicks would be beneficial for him, along with his fantastic boxing.
Holloway should look to use knees to the middle -- he had a beautiful knee that landed in the first fight from the southpaw position -- and big kicks to the head from the southpaw position. Some long knees and straight push kicks to the face and body will benefit him and allow him to control the distance. He didn't do enough of that in the first fight.
Volkanovski slips and rolls a lot, so I think uppercuts would help Holloway. If you're going to jab and he slips to the right, you do a right uppercut if you're conventional, and if you're southpaw, and you're throwing that straight and he dips and rolls back to his left side, you throw that uppercut. These are punches that work against an opponent who is slipping and bobbing quite a bit.
What can you expect from Volkanovski this time around?
I think Volkanovski's coach did a great job of coming up with the game plan for the first fight and bringing those leg kicks. He'll do the same thing. Volkanovski is very explosive, uses his jab and attacks with kicks -- both on the inside and outside -- and measures himself to come in. He's going to continue to do what he did well.
Volkanovski needs to be ready for someone who is shifting and throwing big kicks and knees back at him. How will he respond to that?
Now that he's the champion, he doesn't need to come after Holloway. Now Max technically needs to be the aggressor. Can Volkanovski be more reserved? How will he draw Max in? It's hard to say what adjustments he'll make because he did such a great job in the first fight.
How can Holloway stop those leg kicks?
It was those blitzes that Volkanovski would do, where he would come in like Mike Tyson and Max would glide his chin out of danger, but his legs were still there. He needs to try to glide out and just take a step back, shift to southpaw and make him miss that leg.
If you just focus on checking those leg kicks and making him miss at the beginning of the fight, it could really discourage Volkanovski from using them later on. It's a thing where, if you land it, you keep doing it, but if someone checks it, it kind of hurts. And if you miss it a few times, you move on to something else.
What are the X factors in the fight?
For Holloway: Using his legs -- his knees and his kicks. Adding that in a lot more. Volkanovski is shorter, and when you're using your legs and your knees against a guy who is bulldozing forward, that is a counter. A long, straight push kick down the middle and head kicks can be effective against a guy who is slipping and dipping. Max is super comfortable with his boxing, but he needs to use those legs more.
For Volkanovski: Control the tempo, the pace of this fight. He did so much well in the first fight, but he needs to be ready to adjust to how Holloway has adjusted.
Prediction?
I predict an amazing fight. I think Holloway makes some really good adjustments, and I think he pulls it off.