The UFC returns to Las Vegas on Saturday with a main event that three months ago wasn't even remotely on anyone's radar. Former welterweight champion Tyron Woodley will return to the Octagon for the first time since March 2, 2019, and he'll face Gilbert Burns.
Woodley was booked to fight Leon Edwards on the March 14 card in London, but like many other events, it was canceled due to the coronavirus pandemic. That fight would've been between two legitimate welterweight title contenders looking to secure a shot at champion Kamaru Usman. Instead, Burns steps in on a five-fight winning streak -- his most recent victory coming in a first-round knockout over Demian Maia.
The stakes are unique, but all eyes will be on how Woodley, the former long-reigning champion, looks as he starts his quest to get back to the top.
UFC fighter and ESPN MMA analyst Gilbert Melendez breaks down the main event of the upcoming Fight Night, looking at what it will take for each fighter to bring home a much-needed win.
The biggest questions about the fight
Who sets the pace and takes control? Whoever does will be more successful in this fight.
I'm wondering what Woodley learned in his last fight when he lost his title to Usman. He is a guy who always circles and plays the edge really well. He counters with a big, beautiful right hand, conserves his energy while doing a lot of moving around the cage, slows down the tempo, and then just wants to strike and get you.
Is Woodley ready for another opponent to pressure him on the cage? Usman had a really good game plan against Woodley -- just continually pushing forward, not too anxious or to a point where he put himself into any danger. Usman took calculated risks and pushed Woodley against the cage to grind him down. That might be the way to fight Woodley now, but it does take a special fighter like Usman to execute it.
I'm tuning in to see if Burns has what it takes to solve Woodley -- and to see if Woodley has made his adjustments and if he is a different fighter. Or will Woodley execute his old style and pick off Burns right out of the gate?
What's the key to victory for Woodley?
Control the pace. Dictate the pace. Somehow get Burns going backward, so that he doesn't have the confidence coming forward. I think Woodley needs to attack right away with a big right hand, a big uppercut, and most importantly neutralize the takedown. He needs to get Burns' respect from the very start.
If Burns isn't pressing forward, this is great for Woodley, who can then pick his spots and move. That's where Woodley will do best in this fight. At the end of the rounds, Woodley can look to secure a few takedowns and score some points.
So how does Woodley actually control the tempo? Right uppercuts, straight rights, good sprawls and circling back into the middle of the Octagon. Woodley needs to slowly back up and counter. He'll need to let go of his hands a little bit more once he has found the right range and is constantly hitting his target. With his power, Woodley can keep this up and not force it. He can look for that big punch that will get to Burns, then pounce and capitalize a bit more.
What's the key to victory for Burns?
He is a grappler first, but he has just become a fantastic striker. He has a good jab, a big overhand right and a nice left hook -- which the world witnessed against Demian Maia. The best part is that he's not telegraphing it.
Burns needs to take this fight from Woodley. He needs to go out there and get it from him. Chop him down and turn up the aggression as the rounds get later. Test Woodley's cardio.
I think it is the pressure out of the gate that will wear Woodley out. The key for Burns is to come in with the jab and with the hook. Attack the lead leg and protect his own chin, as that right hand of Woodley's is killer and puts guys out. Get exchanges against the fence and take a page from Usman's game plan -- mixed martial arts striking, dirty boxing.
Burns does have five rounds to get the job done. Woodley believes he's in great shape, but he fights at a certain pace. Burns needs to put the pressure on Woodley and take some shots. It's OK if he lands on his back after an exchange, and most likely he will, because his jiu-jitsu is good enough to get him back to his feet or even make Woodley work more on top than if the roles were reversed.
Speed and being very agile work in Burns' favor, and he needs to use that. Even if Burns shoots and gets taken down, he is still very quick as a scrambler. I've been in the same room with him, and his style gets people tired and throws them off.
Being a former 155-pounder, trying to pick up someone like Woodley isn't going to be the simplest thing. I think it's going for takedowns over and over until Woodley is tired and these takedowns are given up more than taken.
If anyone is going to submit someone, I lean toward Burns submitting Woodley.
How will the smaller Octagon impact the fight?
Editor's note: Fights at the UFC Apex will be held in a 25-foot cage, instead of a regular 30-foot cage.
I hate the big Octagon. I think a smaller cage would be better. You'll see a lot more grappling action, a lot more on the cage fighting and a lot less movement.
The 25-foot Octagon plays to someone more like Burns. He wants to press forward and mix it up, and he'll have to roll the dice to engage and get into exchanges with Woodley to try to get him tired.
Woodley always circles the cage really well and likes to create the angles to lure his opponents in and knock them out. He also uses the Octagon to regroup and charge his energy bar up so he has as much power in his right hand as he did at the beginning of the fight. He won't be able to do that as well with a smaller cage.
Who holds the edge in the ground game?
In the submission ground game, Burns holds the edge. Burns could be very effective on top and on his back -- he is similar to Tony Ferguson, Kron Gracie and Nate Diaz in that they get their opponents tired off their back.
If he is somehow on his back, Burns will be very safe. If somehow Woodley ends up on his back, I'm curious to see how he does. Could he get back up? Is he comfortable doing triangles and armbars?
That said, Woodley is so much harder to take down than Burns. Woodley is such a good wrestler that he might not have to be that good of a grappler because he neutralizes takedowns so well -- and that would mean you'll never see the grappling of Burns.
Who holds the striking edge and why?
I give the edge in accuracy, speed and power to Woodley. He can cover such a large amount of distance and be a sniper, landing a beautiful punch out of nowhere; as the fight goes on, however, it's not as powerful, and it's not as fast.
Over the course of an entire fight, when it comes to someone standing toe-to-toe in the pocket and interacting more in exchanges, I'm not too sure who has that advantage. But if they're fresh with a bunch of energy, Woodley is a better striker.
What's the X factor in this fight?
For Woodley, it's neutralizing the takedown. Burns will be coming for it, and Woodley will need to be ready.
For Burns, it's a submission finish. He has the ability to finish the fight if he takes someone's back. We've seen him execute a rear-naked choke. We've also seen him lock up armbars. Can he get Woodley to the ground?