Calvin Kattar has an important fight Saturday night at UFC 249 in Jacksonville, Florida. He has been training for months to compete against Jeremy Stephens -- a key bout in the featherweight division.
Once that's done, though, Kattar will turn his focus to how he can watch the main event: Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje for the UFC interim lightweight title.
"It's gonna be a war," Kattar said. "Two real killers, man. Flip a coin on that one. They're both game fighters. I'm a fan of both. I can't wait to watch the fight. I think this one is bound to deliver."
Ferguson (25-3) has won 12 in a row -- a UFC lightweight record -- with nine finishes over that span, which stretches back to 2012. The 36-year-old California native has won the fight of the night bonus in five of his past six fights. Ferguson is ESPN's No. 6-ranked pound-for-pound fighter.
Gaethje (21-2) is stepping in for lightweight champ Khabib Nurmagomedov, who said when UFC 249 was originally scheduled for April 18 that he was unable to compete due to coronavirus-related travel restrictions. Gaethje, 31, has won three straight with three finishes. He has won seven fight-night bonuses in six UFC fights, including two in his UFC debut in 2017.
Very few are doubting how action-packed this bout will be. But what about who will win? ESPN asked several fighters and coaches -- including those who have fought Ferguson, such as Kevin Lee, Josh Thomson, Lando Vannata and Yves Edwards -- who they see emerging victorious from the highly anticipated battle.
Kevin Lee, UFC lightweight; lost to Ferguson in 2017
"I actually think
"I see this one going to decision, [with] them kind of standing there slugging it out. If Ferguson gets caught with a big shot, it's gonna be Gaethje opening up, and he could get caught [by Ferguson]. But I don't think he's gonna get caught, with enough time to prepare. I don't think the short camp will hurt Gaethje -- I think it's gonna help him. This being only a four-week camp for him, I don't think he's gonna feel much pressure.
"Tony cutting weight three weeks ago might affect him. But maybe not. A lot of cutting weight is mental. We used to do that in wrestling all the time -- cut weight one week, and then you do it again. Sometimes you gotta do it on Wednesday and cut again on Saturday. Maybe it might bring him back to his old-school ways."
Lando Vannata, UFC lightweight; lost to Ferguson in 2016
"I'm sure against Gaethje -- someone who has super heavy hands, good at striking, gets a lot of knockouts -- I'm sure he'll be a little bit smart. Maybe, maybe not. I don't f---ing know, it's Tony.
"The thing is he's good, he's super good. But he's reckless and takes a lot of punishment. He gets dropped in a lot of fights. He eats a lot of shots. That s--- don't last forever, especially when you're doing big weight cuts like he does. He's a big lightweight. Eventually, his chin is gonna go. Eventually, that recovery that he usually has that's insane, where he gets dropped and gets back up, isn't gonna be there. Gaethje might be that guy where it forces the transition of his career, where Tony just goes to sleep or Tony gets f---ed up.
"I'm kind of leaning toward Gaethje, like 60-40. He's got better striking, and he f---ing hits heavy, man. He hits hard. Gaethje is a motherf---er. He's a gamer, bro. He's just as mentally f---ed up as Ferguson is, where he just gets in there and gets the f--- down. He's got no quit in him. He'll stand right in the pocket and throw. I think he'll get the better of Tony -- I think he'll finish. I think Tony's chin is starting to go a little bit. It's not gone yet, but it's starting to slip. Gaethje is a dangerous guy."
Josh Thomson, former Strikeforce lightweight champion; lost to Ferguson in 2015
"It's a very dangerous fight for Ferguson. Guys like Anthony Pettis have been able to touch him and hit him. If Gaethje hits him, there's a good chance he could lose. I still have Tony winning this fight. I think he's gonna push that pace. It's just he gets hit quite a bit in those first two rounds. If Gaethje doesn't get him out of there in those first two rounds, it's gonna definitely go to Tony.
"This is one of those fights you really don't know how it's gonna go. I think Justin is gonna come out and really try to take his head off. If he catches [Tony] in transition, there's a good chance he could win. But Tony's had a full camp, and he's one of those guys where you just don't know where anything is going to come from.
"Tony is also very driven. It sucks that it comes to this, having to take such a dangerous fight to get a legit shot at the real world title. Why is he fighting again for the interim title? He's already the interim champion. He got stripped of that for no good reason at all. Somebody who is as focused as him and driven as him and someone who does things that most fighters aren't used to seeing. Gaethje, even if he did have a full camp, he just wouldn't be prepared for someone who doesn't do things that most people do."
TJ Dillashaw, former UFC men's bantamweight champion
"Ferguson and Gaethje, I don't think you can get more exciting than those guys. Gaethje is live by the sword, die by the sword. Like he says in his interviews, he's willing to die out there. Ferguson is so loopy, he's just so out there that he puts on a show. I remember being at one of his fights and his cornerman told him to do the salsa into an uppercut. And he really busted out a salsa dance move and then landed an uppercut. That guy is the epitome of entertainment.
"This is a way more exciting fight than Ferguson and Khabib. I feel like Khabib would have been able to slow the fight down. Khabib has that mentality. That's how he wins fights: He punishes you, he slows the fight down and he grabs a hold of you. He seems like he's ridiculously strong. To where Gaethje is gonna brawl. Gaethje is gonna throw down.
"I think Ferguson does take it. Gaethje does have the ability to finish the fight. But I think Ferguson has a never-quit attitude, and he's a little more technical when it comes to other situations than just brawling. Ferguson can brawl, but he also is a great jiu-jitsu artist. He's got great scrambling ability. He's funky. I do think that Ferguson pulls it off."
Urijah Faber, UFC Hall of Famer
"Both of them are wrestlers that like to get crazy. I guess I would lean toward Ferguson, just because he's so friggin' unpredictable. It's hard to call this one. Ferguson does get dropped, and the more you get dropped, the more likely you are to get dropped again. Gaethje has been in that same boat. He was iron jaw for a long time. And I just watched an old interview he did with Brendan Schaub and I'm like, you can tell he's been in some wars, unfortunately.
"I do know that Team Alpha Male coach Danny Castillo had a great match against Tony Ferguson by wrestling him. I thought Danny won that fight in Sacramento in 2014. [Judges scored it a split decision for Ferguson.] He outwrestled Ferguson. Gaethje is a really good wrestler. He hasn't traditionally used that in his fights, but that's also an option."
Valentina Shevchenko, UFC women's flyweight champion
Justin Gaethje says he's training with UFC welterweight champ Kamaru Usman, among others, as he gets ready to fight Tony Ferguson for the interim lightweight title on May 9.
"I like both of them, but I think Tony Ferguson is the bigger fighter, stronger. I definitely think that Gaethje will give a lot of pride there, because all of his fights are entertaining to watch. But when you are going for these exchanges, it's every time 50-50. You will hit or you will be knocked down. When you're fighting opponents that are lower class, it can be fine. But when it's high class, it's too much risk. And Tony has good physics, good striking. He never stops.
"I think Tony will be the winner of this fight. I hope this extra cut weight won't affect the fight. Because if it's happening May 9, it's gonna be very soon. I hope he will recover from this weight cut all the way back, and he will be the same power level he always is.
"They are risky fighters, but in the same way very tactical. They just have a different fight game. Their styles are different. But both are very tactical. If the risk is something you know will give yourself an advantage, you will go for it. But it's a risk just to entertain the fans or something like this and you have another side of risk to lose what you already have -- to lose your opportunity, to lose your belt, to lose everything."
Brandon Gibson, JacksonWink MMA striking coach
"I think they both have strengths in different areas. Justin has dynamite in his hands. I would give Justin a striking advantage. I think the last three fights, Justin has looked a lot more patient. Since the loss to Poirier, he's had three first-round knockouts. He was patient in all of them. He didn't come out like a wild man, guns blazing. He came out and really started setting up his combinations, cutting off the cage and finding his range. Against the taller fighter -- all three of those guys are taller fighters: Edson Barboza, James Vick and "Cowboy" Cerrone -- he was able to put them on their heels, back them up, get them making defensive movements and bad angles and making them pay for it.
"I don't think Tony Ferguson is any of those three guys, though. Tony is really going to look to establish the clinch, where I think he's stronger. From kicking range, Ferguson also probably has an advantage, but Justin's advantage is at boxing range.
"Ferguson has unorthodox submissions, like the Brabo chokes, his triangles and putting elbows with it. While they both probably have similar strengths in wrestling, I think Ferguson is stronger in the clinch, and when they do hit the ground, I think he's gonna have a lot more tools. So I'd give Tony the grappling/wrestling/jiu-jitsu edge.
"I think one of the other X factors is Tony's adaptability. Tony can weather a storm, make a lot of adjustments and wear guys down. He's good in the later rounds at really making adjustments and getting the fight on his terms. So the later the fight goes, I think the more advantages Tony has.
"Tony will switch stances very well. He's very fluid, that's how I'd describe him. He has unique angles, unique levels and unique adaptabilities. I think Justin's uniqueness comes down to his timing, more so than his power. I think Justin has good eyes right now. He's in his early 30s, he's in his prime. I think when he sees the kill shot, he's good at taking it.
"I think it's gonna go five rounds, and I think based on the timing of the training camps, I think Ferguson is really gonna dominate in the later rounds. He has a big edge when it comes to taking a five-round, championship fight. Ferguson is gonna do Ferguson no matter what. He's preparing for himself, and that's a dangerous thing. I think we're gonna see a very hard-fought, five-round war, and I think Tony is gonna pull off the decision."
Yves Edwards, former UFC lightweight/MMA analyst
"If Gaethje wins this fight, I wouldn't be surprised. But I think Tony wins this fight. For Gaethje to win this fight, he would have to "Michael Johnson" Tony and that hasn't happened since Johnson beat him. He's gotta put him down and be able to finish. I don't think Gaethje is gonna be able to grind it out against him the way Johnson was able to put him down and keep the pressure on. He didn't finish Tony, but he kept the pressure on him.
"Gaethje has the power to do it. We saw Lando Vannata stun Ferguson. He had some success for about two minutes. The fight was competitive the entire time, but he had a significant amount of success for about two or three minutes, and then Ferguson kind of got back to himself and took over again. Tony Ferguson is a different kind of cat. He's a scary kind of dude. He's like one of those dudes before colonial times. He's willing to die for the tribe.
"I think the physical skill itself is kind of a wash. They're both powerful. Tony is longer, lanky. His power doesn't look as apparent until he puts guys down. You stand those guys next to each other, you watch a bunch of their fights and you're gonna accept that Gaethje is powerful. Tony is a guy, you recognize that he hits hard. But what you're gonna take out of Tony's fights is the viciousness. They can both take some shots, but the problem with that is you look at Tony's fights. He gets hit, but look at his opponents. They're the ones that look messed up. They get beat up.
"I think Gaethje has a shot, but I think it's a small one against a guy like Ferguson. I think Ferguson is the truth. If Tony finishes, I think it's in four or five. I think if Gaethje finishes, it's in one or two. But I lean so much more to Tony finishing this fight or winning by decision after a brutal fight."
Uriah Hall, UFC middleweight
"Because of the durability, I'm taking Ferguson. I think Gaethje is gonna try to chop him down with low kicks, which might invite Ferguson in. I see Ferguson going the distance and putting more output. They both have chins, but I think Ferguson's chin is stronger."