UFC 246 predictions: Fighters, coaches split on Conor vs. Cowboy

The most popular fighter in UFC history, Conor McGregor, will meet Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone -- the winningest fighter in UFC history -- in the main event of UFC 246 on Saturday in Las Vegas.

As the UFC's first pay-per-view headliner of the new decade, this fight promises to have an enormous impact on the rest of the year. Will McGregor, 31, regain the form that carried him to two UFC championships in 2015 and 2016? Or will Cerrone, 36, pick up the biggest victory of his storied career?

ESPN asked some of the top athletes and trainers in the sport for their predictions.

Editor's note: Answers were edited for length and clarity.

Alexander Volkanovski, UFC featherweight champion

I think Conor will knock him out. Look, I've got a lot of respect for Cowboy, but Conor is no joke. I think it will stay standing. I don't think Cowboy will look for the takedown. Don't get me wrong: If he gets it to the ground, I can definitely see him finishing the fight. Does he, though? I don't know. I think Conor will find that chin.

I hope Cowboy does look for the takedown, but I don't think Conor will be easy to take down. If Cowboy pressures, pressures, pressures, you slow someone down a little bit, and as we've seen in Conor's fights, once he's slowed down, he's a little bit off. The timing starts to go. He's a little more hesitant. Anything can happen from there. But I think Conor finds him early.

Ben Askren, retired welterweight

I think it's Conor, fairly easily. TKO. When you look at Cowboy's last two fights (two stoppages), they haven't been all that pretty. I don't think Conor knocks him out clean, but I think he lands enough shots. Most likely the first round, probably. At worst, the second. Cerrone's only hope is to somehow play really defensive, not let Conor land the big shot, and then Conor gets tired and Cowboy clinches him and lands a lot of strikes from there. Besides that, I don't think there's much of a chance.

Michael Chiesa, UFC welterweight

This fight favors Cowboy a lot more than people think. Donald has a lot more tools to win this fight. I like the fact Donald is going against a southpaw. Kicking is his strong point, so I could see him letting that right kick fly into Conor's open, left-handed stance. But Conor's left hand is an equalizer. I think it's going to be a strongside fight. I see Donald attacking the strong side with the right kick and Conor using that trademark left hand.

The other X factor is Cowboy has a very underrated ground game. He has this inside double-leg takedown he does, where he always lands in a dominant position. And he's phenomenal on the ground. I really wouldn't be surprised if part of Donald's game plan is to get Conor to the ground. Donald has kind of unconventional wrestling. I'm not saying it's easier to train for Khabib Nurmagomedov's wrestling, but I am saying Nurmagomedov is a lot more predictable. Cowboy has a funkier wrestling style to deal with.

Conor in the early onset is dangerous as f---. Not only is he dangerous to knock you out, but if you start to concede to it, it's like a snowball effect. It's a really interesting fight to call, honesty. I'm going Donald Cerrone. When I pick fights, my bias is usually to the guy with more ways to win. I think he'll get the job done.

Stephen 'Wonderboy' Thompson, UFC welterweight

I'm going with Conor McGregor to get a finish, and the reason is Cerrone doesn't know when to stop and let his body heal up. He's had some time off, so I think it's going to be a very good fight, but he's been in some wars lately, some really big wars. He's been knocked out, and he's not getting any younger.

Conor has a style to him that lures people's game out fairly easily. He's got a karate base, kind of like me, very good at distance management. Cerrone is the type of guy who kind of walks forward, Muay Thai style, very tricky though. But I think Conor, if he lands that left hand, he'll put him to sleep for sure.

Kevin Lee, UFC lightweight

It's a real winnable fight for Conor. I think that's why he and the UFC chose it. I'm pulling for Cowboy, but when I hear his coaches say all they have to worry about is the left hand, that makes me think he's going to get hit with a bunch of left hands. That's one of the things [Lee's late coach, Robert Follis] used to tell me, is there is a certain way to talk to an athlete. If you say, "right hand, right hand, right hand," in my brain, everything is moving so fast, all I'm looking for is a right hand and I get hit with it. Instead, say, "Circle this way, move your head this way." Say what your athlete should do instead of what his opponent is doing, if that makes sense. Maybe his coaches are just saying that to the media, but to me it doesn't sound good.

I see maybe first- or second-round knockout for Conor. The higher weight might play a little bit of a factor and let Cowboy take a few more shots, but it will only delay the inevitable. Conor is fighting Cowboy to try to get some confidence. He's being spoon-fed. After he knocks him out, people gonna say Conor is back, but he's beating a hand-picked fighter.

Henry Cejudo, UFC bantamweight champion

Conor is going to press Cowboy. He's seen enough of Cowboy's fights that the way to beat him is with a plan and pressure, and that's exactly what he's going to do. I think him being a southpaw gives him an advantage. I see Conor using distance with pressure, finding the precise shots and doing damage. I'm going for Cowboy. I would like to see Cowboy win. But if I had to put money on it, I'll go with [Conor].

I understand why Conor picked Cowboy to come back to, but in reality, I don't think Khabib Nurmagomedov will give him a shot after this, knowing Khabib the way I do. I don't think he'll give Conor a shot until he's gone through the fire again, and to me the fire is Justin Gaethje. If Conor wants a rematch with Khabib, he's going to have to fight Justin Gaethje.

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Matt Brown, UFC welterweight

Cowboy has a better chance than people are giving him credit for, especially at 170 pounds. He's bigger, taller. Conor's power isn't gonna carry as much weight at 170, especially against a guy as big as Cowboy, who will be hydrated, not cutting as much weight.

Also, Cowboy has really good kicks. I know that. I took one to my face. Conor keeps his hands low. He's gotta get close to him. Cowboy has good knees, good timing with his knees. It's a tough matchup for Conor. On that same token, where is Cowboy at? Where's his chin? Is he fighting for the money this fight? Is he gonna be an [Andy Ruiz in his rematch against Anthony Joshua] in this fight -- get the fight and party the whole time -- or is he gonna take it seriously? I think Cowboy will take it seriously, and I pick him to win.

Anthony Smith, UFC light heavyweight

The glaring thing I'm sure everyone will pick up on is that Cowboy doesn't do well with high-level, southpaw, pressure fighters. You look at his losses to Rafael dos Anjos, Darren Till, the tough fights with Nate Diaz. I also see a s----talking aspect in this fight. Conor gets into people's head and Cowboy is super emotional. He fought Alex Hernandez at the beginning of last year and Alex was really in Cowboy's head. Now, it didn't pan out well for him, because Alex is a young kid, but in the beginning of that fight, he was giving Cowboy the business.

I think if Cowboy were to fight smart and keep his ego out of it, he has a chance. When he says he's the better overall martial artist, he's right, but he has a tendency to let his ego get involved. He should grapple and push Conor against the fence, that would be beneficial. [McGregor coach] John Kavanagh is super intelligent and I think he will have learned from the Alex Hernandez fight. The Diaz fight. If you stay in boxing range with Cowboy and take away his ability to kick -- Conor standing on the outside is going to get his legs ripped up. But if he gets inside those kicks, he's got dynamite in his left hand.

I really think Conor finishes him, unfortunately. I don't know when, but I see Conor getting the finish.

Jorge Masvidal, UFC welterweight

Conor is great off the blocks. He's phenomenal off the start. Cowboy's a slow starter. Conor has tremendous speed and timing in the beginning, and good power, so I think he can catch him early.

If Cowboy comes out to grapple, like he has in the past with decent strikers, and even with good grapplers, he's able to take them down and create a lot of offense like that. If that Cowboy comes out, he can mix things up real nice. And then he can start to flow and get into his game of high kicks, punching, being tricky and presenting a dual threat to Conor. If [Cerrone] comes out to fight it out, I see Conor winning within the first two rounds.

Michael Chandler, former Bellator lightweight champion

Obviously, we haven't seen Conor fight in a while. If the same Conor shows up, confident, good use of space and that scary left hand, I think the power is going to be in Conor's favor, as well as just the confidence factor. A lot of times we step in these fights and the more confident guy is able to get off right away. Cowboy is kind of a slow starter.

I think Cowboy has the cardio and the pace. Conor has the power and is also a very fast, very reactive southpaw. Another thing is Cowboy's kicks -- high kick, body shots, back to high kicks. Conor hasn't really fought a lot of guys who have those big, powerful Thai kicks like Cowboy does. But Conor is on his toes, in and out, hands up. That makes it hard to land those big, powerful kicks.

I have always been critical of Conor's cardio, but then equally, people have been critical of Cowboy not showing up in the big, big moments. So, both of them will be masters of their own fate there. Is Conor going to come in shape to win a longer fight? Is Cowboy going to be able to rise to the occasion that is fighting Conor McGregor on pay-per-view? I'm going Cowboy, because I think his chin will last in the volume of punches and the fight will go longer. Prediction: Unanimous decision for Cowboy.

Ray Longo, LAW MMA coach

I'm picking Cowboy to win. He hasn't done well with guys who are natural 170-pounders who can hit. But McGregor is a 145-pounder coming up to 170 pounds. So, I don't think he will have the zap on his punches. And Cerrone has a pretty good gas tank. We know the other guy's gas tank isn't that good for a five-round fight.

Conor is a counterpuncher more than anything. Cerrone's last opponent, Justin Gaethje, is a mad hatter. What Gaethje did to Cerrone is really what I wanted [my fighter] Al [Iaquinta] to do to him, but I think Al got caught into a different type of fight and never recovered. That was the game plan, just to pressure him and go forward. I think McGregor can do that, but he hasn't really shown us that. He's a counterpuncher. He waits. Cerrone is 6-foot and throws a lot of kicks. I think he poses a different problem to McGregor and has more ways to win.

Those [out-of-the-cage problems] matter for Conor. You can't do two things at once. They affect you. [McGregor] is looking at [two sexual assault investigations in Ireland, per The New York Times]. It's gotta get to you, man. Can you concentrate and do the right thing? He's got money; he's always in trouble. I don't know. It's tough, man. I'm gonna say Cerrone stops him in the fourth round by TKO.

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Sayif Saud, Fortis MMA coach

Here's the biggest X factor: Donald Cerrone's ground game is so much better than people understand. Donald Cerrone on the ground is a problem. He's got some of the best jiu-jitsu and submissions. If he gets Conor on the ground, he might submit him -- fairly easily, honestly.

The only issue is, is his wrestling good enough to get Conor on the ground? Sometimes Donald hits that quick takedown and it's not bad. Gets that quick bodylock takedown on people. [Cerrone's team] knows damn well they have an advantage on the ground. Now, I think Donald will stand with him. And if Donald can get going over five rounds, he can beat Conor in a kickboxing match, even. We've seen Conor fade time and time again. He lost the standup against Khabib -- straight up. He just lost it. All he does is try to line up that big left hand.

McGregor is gonna be in great shape and very dangerous in the first two rounds. And that's when Donald, historically, has done bad. He needs time to warm up. I think over a five-round fight, Donald has a slight advantage. I'll go with Cerrone. Everyone is gonna go with Conor, I just think Donald, if he can survive the first round or two, has more ways to win.

John Crouch, MMA Lab coach

Cowboy has had trouble with southpaws. Ben Henderson, Rafael dos Anjos, Anthony Pettis went southpaw when he went against Cerrone. He's had some issues with southpaws. I think, if Cowboy can turn it into a tussle, Conor is not gonna be in better shape. He did OK with Khabib, he hung in there, but the ability to go five definitely goes to Cowboy. So, I would give Conor an advantage early, but if Cowboy can wrestle him up a little bit, slow him down and get past Conor's explosive stage, Cowboy would have an advantage late.

I've gone back and forth because I just love Cowboy so much. He's a great ambassador for the game. But if Conor has been working hard, he definitely has some advantages -- especially with his hand speed and accuracy. And Donald is there to be hit.

Andre Pederneiras, Nova Uniao coach

McGregor has a lot of chances to win this fight. He pressures too much, and Cowboy doesn't like too much pressure. I give my vote to McGregor, by knockout, at the end of the fight, like the fourth round. If he can keep the pressure. If he can't keep the pressure, then maybe Cowboy beats him. But I think he pressures Cowboy the whole time.