Former UFC featherweight and lightweight champion Conor McGregor returns to the Octagon on Jan. 18 in the main event of UFC 246, where he'll face Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone in a welterweight fight.
Both fighters are known for their fan-friendly styles, and their career stats certainly back that up. Despite that similarity, there are several key statistical divergences that hint at possible paths to victory for both fighters.
The stats that favor McGregor
McGregor burst onto the scene as a featherweight with outstanding striking power, and he has maintained that power as he has progressed up the weight divisions. In his career, he has scored 1.81 knockdowns per 15 minutes of fight time and scored at least one knockdown in eight of his 11 UFC appearances. One could argue that he is overly reliant on his power, as he is 1-2 in fights in which he has not knocked his opponent down.
That might not be an issue against Cerrone. Through his first 32 UFC/WEC fights, "Cowboy" surrendered only three knockdowns, or 0.15 per 15 minutes. However, as he's aged, he has shown emerging vulnerability. In his past 11 fights, Cerrone has hit the canvas five times. In that stretch, he is allowing 0.63 knockdowns per 15 minutes.
In addition to his natural power, McGregor is an overly successful striker due to his prolific offense. In his UFC career, he's landed 5.27 significant strikes per minute, which is a higher rate than that of all other ranked welterweights, save for Geoff Neal (6.04). McGregor also does his best striking at distance. He has a +0.85 striking differential overall (significant strikes landed per minute minus significant strikes absorbed per minute), but when including only strikes at distance, that differential balloons to +1.38.
In his UFC career, McGregor has absorbed a large portion of his opponents' significant strikes in the clinch and on the ground. Of his absorbed significant strikes, 22% have come in the clinch, and another 15% have come on the ground. Fortunately for McGregor, that will likely not be an issue against Cerrone. In his UFC/WEC career, he has landed the vast majority (82%) of his significant strikes at distance. If this turns into a strict striking contest, it will probably take place in McGregor's best striking position.
An interesting wild-card factor in this fight is the weight. McGregor's only experience at welterweight came in his two-fight series against Nate Diaz. Even though most of Cerrone's experience has come at lightweight, he has 10 fights at 170 pounds under his belt. Then again, he is 0-7 against fighters currently ranked in the welterweight division. Although Cerrone might be the larger fighter on Saturday, both of these fighters will be lightweights without the weight cut.
The stats that favor Cerrone
Although many of the striking stats favor McGregor, there is one critical area in which Cerrone could exploit an advantage. Over the course of his UFC/WEC career, 25% of his landed significant strikes have been strikes to the legs. He averages 1.08 significant leg strikes per minute. McGregor is much more of a headhunter, as 70% of his landed significant strikes have been head shots. McGregor has landed 68 total significant leg strikes in his UFC career; 40 came in the rematch against Diaz. In most cases, McGregor relies on his movement and distance control to set up power shots. If Cerrone is able to have an impact with his leg kicks, he could disrupt that rhythm and force McGregor into some tough spots.
Cerrone is never one to shy away from a striking battle, but he has always been an underrated submission threat. In his career, he has averaged 1.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes of fight time. Among ranked welterweights, only Diaz has a higher submission rate (1.4). McGregor has only three losses in the UFC, and two have come via submission.
If Cerrone is able to put himself into position, he could threaten and possibly finish McGregor via submission. Cerrone has always been a solid takedown threat, and he averages 1.21 per 15 minutes of fight time. However, over the course of his past nine fights, he has been forced to work for takedowns. He has failed on 80% of his takedown attempts, yet is still averaging 0.74 per 15.
Another key element that favors Cerrone is his activity. "Cowboy" has never gone longer than 270 days between fights since he made his professional MMA debut in 2006. He has taken losses in his career, but he has always been prepared to fight.
When this fight comes, it will have been 469 days since McGregor's most recent fight, the loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov. If you include his boxing match against Floyd Mayweather, this will be his longest time away from competition since he had a 666-day layoff between fights in 2008-10. With that much time away from the sport, it is hard to gauge where McGregor will be physically or tactically. Cerrone has fought five times since McGregor last walked into the cage.
The bottom line
Not only does McGregor have the advantage in a variety of striking stats, but also Cerrone is coming into this fight off back-to-back knockout losses against hyper-offensive strikers. Historically, McGregor also fits that mold. If McGregor is able to recapture his old form, this should be a victory for him. However, his time away from competition makes him a bit of an unknown quantity. Cerrone is a serious challenge. If McGregor is not in peak form, his comeback bid could easily be derailed.
Prediction: McGregor by technical knockout