The welterweight title will be on the line when champion Kamaru Usman defends against Colby Covington in the main event of UFC 245 on Saturday night.
While the two might be diametrically opposite in terms of personality, they have very similar fighting styles. Both fighters come from a wrestling background, and each has found success in the UFC by adapting different elements of that base as their careers have evolved. There are, however, some key differences that will likely determine the winner in Las Vegas.
The stats that favor Usman
Despite not being a traditional striker, Usman holds the best striking differential among ranked welterweights. His plus-2.6 differential is not only the tops among ranked 170-pound fighters, but it also is well above the average in the same group (+0.69). Usman lands 4.2 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing only 1.6 on a per-minute basis.
Even though Usman's landing rate is above the ranked welterweight average (3.76), his strike absorption rate has really separated him from the field. His 1.6 significant strikes absorbed per minute rate is better than any other ranked welterweight, and he is the only ranked welterweight currently absorbing fewer than two significant strikes a minute.
Obviously, part of the reason why Usman avoids a lot of punishment is that he does much of his striking in advantageous positions. During his UFC career, 37% of his landed significant strikes have come on the ground. Even when he is unsuccessful on his takedowns, he is able to make an impact in the clinch, where 22% of his significant strikes have landed. Not only does Usman excel offensively in these positions, but he shuts down the striking game of his opponents. Through 10 UFC fights, Usman has absorbed only 17 significant ground strikes and 66 significant clinch strikes, total.
Like many top wrestlers, Usman does not land a particularly high percentage of his takedown attempts, as only 50% of his attempts have been successful since the start of his UFC career. However, he makes up for that with volume and lands 3.96 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time, the second-highest rate among ranked welterweights. In addition to landing 1.57 significant ground strikes per minute, he also has proved to be a proficient top position grappler, averaging 0.98 guard passes per takedown.
While Usman has been successful by taking his opponents out of their game with his clinching, wrestling, ground striking and top position grappling, it will be intriguing to see how that plays out against a fellow wrestler like Covington.
The stats that favor Covington
The only fighter currently ranked among the top welterweights in the UFC who lands more takedowns per 15 minutes than Usman is Covington -- who lands 5.69 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is far and away above the rest of the division, as the average for a ranked welterweight is only 1.79. Covington only lands 51% of his takedown attempts, but he tries 10.99 takedowns per 15 minutes, so he finds a lot of success in the wrestling department. His 58 landed takedowns are already the 10th-most landed in UFC history.
However, unlike Usman, Covington has not been nearly as successful at turning his grappling into striking opportunities. Only 12% of his landed significant strikes have come on the ground. Even though he spends a lot of time going for takedowns, Covington still does most of his effective striking at distance. In his UFC career, 74% of his landed significant strikes have come while standing and not in the clinch. This could potentially play into the fight in two ways.
On one hand, Covington might not be able to make the most of the top position if he lands takedowns. On the other hand, Covington's tendency to strike more at distance might swing the fight into his favor if neither competitor is able to consistently land takedowns.
Like Usman, Covington also has a lot of success in terms of striking differential. His +1.64 measure is currently fourth among ranked welterweights, although Covington lands at a lesser rate than Usman on a per-minute basis and absorbs slightly more, landing 3.9 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.94.
The bottom line
Both of these fighters like to rely on their wrestling base in order to be effective, but securing top position or a dominant clinch position along the cage might be more essential for Usman in this fight. Even though Covington has the higher takedown rate, Usman needs to operate from a control position in order to implement his striking offense. Covington has found success striking at distance, where he lands 2.87 significant strikes per minute, as compared to only 1.17 for Usman.
Covington has only been forced to defend takedowns in three of his 11 UFC fights. He stopped all 13 of Demian Maia's attempts, but both Dong Hyun Kim and Rafael dos Anjos were able to get to Covington for multiple landed takedowns. While Kim and dos Anjos have shown themselves to be more than competent takedown threats, neither is on the level of Usman. In his most recent fight, Usman secured two key takedowns against Tyron Woodley, who came into the bout with the highest takedown defense in UFC history and still ranks third with 93.7%.
The grappling exchanges likely will come down to Covington's frantic volume approach versus Usman's ability to hold position and deliver offense. And both likely will have success, but look for Usman to control enough extended periods of the fight on the ground and along the cage to win at least three of the five rounds and retain the welterweight championship.
Prediction: Usman by decision