Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza and Jan Blachowicz are set to meet in the main event of this weekend's UFC card in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Even though Souza is the more well-known and accomplished fighter, Blachowicz is the one coming into the light heavyweight fight with momentum.
In his last fight, Blachowicz scored only his second striking-based stoppage in the UFC as he trounced former middleweight champion Luke Rockhold. On the other hand, Souza dropped a five-round decision against middleweight prospect Jack Hermansson and has since decided to abandon the weight division altogether and move up to 205 pounds. The former Strikeforce middleweight champion certainly has a path to victory against Blachowicz, but there are several statistical trends that favor the Polish fighter.
The stats that favor Blachowicz
In his 12-fight UFC career, Blachowicz has landed 3.54 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.11 per minute, for a striking differential of +0.43. Those striking numbers are not really anything to write home about. However, they stand up very well against his opponent on Saturday. Souza, in his UFC/Strikeforce/Dream career, holds a -0.10 striking differential, which would place him 14th among light heavyweights ranked by the UFC (he is currently still ranked as a middleweight).
Souza has worked hard to become a more polished striker since converting from competitive grappling in 2003. However, he has still struggled at times against seasoned strikers, and his negative striking differential reflects those issues.
Not only does Blachowicz have the better overall striking numbers, but his advantage is magnified when looking at distance striking. Of Blachowicz's landed strikes, 68% have come in the position, which is defined as standing and not in the clinch. For Souza, the proportion of distance strikes is only 57%. At distance in the Octagon, Blachowicz has landed 2.50 significant strikes per minute, absorbed only 1.63 and currently has a +0.87 distance striking differential. During his combined UFC/Strikeforce/Dream career, the vast majority of Souza's absorbed significant strikes have come at distance (78%). During the same stretch, he has a -0.64 distance striking differential. If this fight stays on the feet and these current trends hold, Blachowicz will be able to make a difference with his striking.
While Blachowicz has not really been a power striker in the UFC, there's reason to believe he will be able to do some major damage against Souza. He's landed only four knockdowns in the UFC, but he looked very much like a power puncher when he stopped Rockhold with a single shot last July. Souza, like Rockhold, is moving up from a lower division and may struggle with the power of a larger opponent. On top of the change in class, Souza has shown signs that his ability to withstand punishment is on the decline. Through his first 18 fights in the UFC/Strikeforce/Dream, Souza did not allow a single knockdown. In his last eight fights, he has allowed 0.54 knockdowns per 15 minutes of fight time. This seemingly emerging weakness and the higher weight class could open the door to knockdowns and an early stoppage for Blachowicz.
The stats that favor Souza
While a lot of the striking numbers are ominous for Souza, he does actually have some impressive defensive numbers. During his UFC/Strikeforce/Dream career, he has managed to avoid 62% of his opponents' significant strike attempts. That rate is behind only Jon Jones (65%) among ranked light heavyweights. His significant strike absorption rate, 2.81 per minute, is below the average for the same group, 2.92. While he does have a negative striking differential, that is mostly due to offensive shortcomings. From a numerical perspective, he has done a solid job of avoiding strikes from opponents. That defense could pay dividends against Blachowicz.
One way Jacare could support his already strong striking defense is to rely on his grappling base. Unlike many converts from Brazilian jiu jitsu, Souza came to MMA with an already established takedown game. In the UFC, Strikeforce and Dream, he has landed 2.70 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is well above the average for a ranked light heavyweight (1.72). Not only is he a good takedown artist, but he has an impact once the fight hits the floor: Souza has averaged 1.42 passes per takedown, 10 of his 19 victories in UFC/Strikeforce/Dream have come via submission, and he has averaged 1.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes of fight time. The UFC's definition of submission attempt is more akin to "near submission," so it is safe to say he has a proven track record of imposing his will with his grappling on the ground.
Blachowicz is a solid offensive takedown threat. He has landed 1.45 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC and has controlled multiple fights from the top position. However, he has shown some defensive liability when it comes to stopping takedowns. He stops only 60% of the takedown attempts against him and allows his opponents to land 1.45 takedowns per 15 minutes. Blachowicz is only 1-4 in the UFC when allowing one or more takedowns.
If Jacare is able to force Blachowicz to miss in the striking game, he could potentially get the fight to the floor, where he should have a sizable advantage. Blachowicz has never been submitted in the UFC, but Souza is the biggest submission threat he has faced by far.
The bottom line
Avoiding strikes on the feet and looking for takedowns is probably the clearest path to victory for Souza. However, that strategy is not without potential pitfalls. This will be his first fight up at light heavyweight in the UFC, and size could easily play a factor in the wrestling game. Despite his less than stellar takedown defense, Blachowicz was able to stop all five of Rockhold's takedown attempts and stop him on the feet. Jacare is a better takedown artist than Rockhold; however, it is hard to see him consistently dragging Blachowicz to the ground. Look for this to become a striking contest at distance, with Blachowicz getting the better of the exchanges on the way to an impressive victory.