Alexander Volkov was originally set to face former UFC champion Junior dos Santos in the main event of UFC Moscow on Saturday, but Dos Santos pulled out of the fight and created the biggest fight in former NFL star Greg Hardy's budding MMA career.
Volkov represents the toughest opponent for Hardy by far. Hardy is an underdog going into this fight, and though he has respectable supportive metrics, Volkov seems to have the edge across multiple statistical categories. Here are the key factors that could determine the winner on Saturday.
Striking differential
Hardy's journey from football player to MMA fighter has been a bit of an adventure. He has been mostly a striker who has produced rather impressive numbers. In his four UFC fights and two appearances on Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series (DWTNCS), he has landed 5.37 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 1.80. His +3.93 striking differential is currently higher than that of any ranked heavyweight. Of course, there are a lot of caveats with this data. First and perhaps foremost, his six opponents have a combined UFC record of 2-7.
Volkov will be the most accomplished opponent that Hardy has faced. Even before coming to the UFC, he won the Bellator heavyweight title and built the reputation of an effective volume striker. He has faced a much tougher schedule in the UFC and has still put together a +3.57 striking differential. He has landed 6.28 significant strikes per minute, the second-highest rate among ranked heavyweights. Volkov has also managed to maintain respectable defense while striking with volume. His significant strike absorption rate (2.71) is better than the average for a ranked heavyweight (3.09).
Hardy's numbers are also boosted by the fact that his fights have been mostly short. In the UFC and on DWTNCS, he has fought only 30% of his scheduled fight time. On the few occasions when the fight has gone longer than the first round, his striking numbers have experienced a rather steep decline. In opening rounds, he lands 7.73 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 1.83, for a whopping +5.90 differential. However, in Rounds 2 and 3, he lands only 3.45 and absorbs 1.83 for a differential of +1.67. The drop from +5.90 to +1.67 represents a 71% decline in striking differential.
Although Hardy has volume striking numbers, it's hard to imagine him keeping up with Volkov over an extended period of time. If he wants to be successful in this fight, he will likely need to make an early impact. If the fight extends past the first round, expect Volkov to take over with his persistent volume.
Knockdowns
The good news for Hardy is that he seems to have the edge in terms of striking power. In his six-fight career, he has averaged 1.12 knockdowns per 15 minutes and scored four finishes due to strikes. If Hardy's goal is to land power shots against Volkov and finish the fight early, he has the physical tools to get it done. With that said, it might not turn out to be the easiest task.
"Drago" has been stopped via strikes only twice in his 37-fight professional MMA career. However, he did show some vulnerability in his most recent fight.
Volkov thoroughly outlanded Derrick Lewis through two rounds at UFC 229. On significant strikes, he held an 80-21 lead heading into the final round. Despite this edge, Lewis scored a knockdown and finished Volkov with another eight significant strikes on the floor.
Volkov was also dropped against Tim Johnson in his UFC debut back in 2016. He was able to stage a comeback and take the split-decision victory. His only other stoppage loss came against fellow former Bellator champion Vitaly Minakov at Bellator 108 in 2013.
Although Hardy certainly has knockout power, he might struggle to land the necessary blows against Volkov. Despite this, he will most likely make a hard charge early in the bout because it represents his best chance to win.
Striking output
From an overall perspective, both Hardy and Volkov have similar striking output. Hardy in his UFC/DWTNCS career has averaged 10.11 significant strike attempts per minute, and Volkov has averaged 10.41 in the UFC. However, Hardy has been much more reliant on this volume to be successful. He has fallen below his career output rate in only two fights. He averaged 7.00 attempts per minute against Ben Sosoli and 8.57 against Allen Crowder. In both of these fights, he was unable to blitz his opponent early, and he was forced into a longer battle. It is possible that Hardy's striking volume numbers are not due to an effective striking style and more a result of overwhelming opponents in quick fights.
This has not been the case for Volkov. He has been able to win fights even when his output has been below his career mark. Volkov averaged only 5.60 per minute against Johnson and 5.41 against Fabricio Werdum. Both fights turned out to be victories. Striking output is yet another metric that shows that Volkov will have the advantage over Hardy if he is able to pull the former football player into a longer fight.
Striking accuracy
Even though the fighters have similar output numbers, Volkov has landed more due to his superior accuracy. In the UFC, he has landed 60% of his significant strike attempts, which is second-best among ranked heavyweights, behind only that of Alistair Overeem, and fifth-best in UFC history among fighters with five UFC fights and at least 350 landed significant strikes. Hardy is above average in terms of accuracy at 56%, but Volkov is historically strong in this category.
Not only does Volkov have the advantage overall in terms of accuracy, but his advantage is actually exacerbated at distance. In the position, which is defined as standing and not in the clinch, Volkov has landed 58% of his significant strike attempts. It is normal for a fighter's accuracy to decline at distance. Hardy's falls all the way to 46%.
This fight will likely take place at distance. Hardy has never attempted a takedown in his six fights, and he has landed only 10 significant strikes in the clinch. He has managed to avoid 67% of his opponents' significant strike attempts, but an extended striking contest against a persistent and accurate striker such as Volkov will likely spell trouble for him.