Sure, let's spice up Opening Day with a significant trade: The Padres send pitchers Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan to the Twins for reliever Taylor Rogers and outfielder Brent Rooker. It is an intriguing deal along the lines of the Craig Kimbrel-AJ Pollock trade between the White Sox and Dodgers because it is major league talent for major league talent -- no prospects, not a salary dump, just a realigning of players that both teams hope will help each other.
Let's dig into the San Diego side first.
After the Padres acquired Sean Manaea from the A's, Paddack had lost his spot in a San Diego rotation that lines up as Yu Darvish, Manaea, Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell and Nick Martinez -- with Mike Clevinger beginning the season on the injured list with knee soreness (he's also returning from Tommy John surgery). While you can never have too much starting pitching, the Padres also have MacKenzie Gore (who is Kiley McDaniel's No.80 overall prospect entering the season) and Ryan Weathers in the minors, so they believed they had the rotation depth to deal Paddack.
With Drew Pomeranz also beginning the season on the IL as he works his way back from flexor tendon surgery, Tim Hill was the only left-hander in the Padres' bullpen. In acquiring Rogers, they get one of the most consistent lefty relievers in the game. He is a 31-year-old veteran with a 3.15 career ERA over six seasons, including a 3.35 ERA in 40 2021 appearances.
Lefties have hit .200/.260/.280 off Rogers in his career, and he's good enough against right-handed batters (.251/.292/.392 over the past three seasons) that Bob Melvin will feel comfortable using him in late-game moments. Among left-handed relievers over the past three seasons, only Josh Hader, Aroldis Chapman and Will Smith have a higher strikeout rate than Rogers' 32.3%. He did miss the final two months of 2021 left middle finger sprain, the first IL trip in his career, but he was healthy in spring training and fanned eight in four innings.
Rogers was the Twins' primary closer in 2019 (30 saves) and 2020 (nine saves) and then eventually in 2021 again after Alex Colome faltered early on, so he has plenty of ninth-inning experience -- although it appears Robert Suarez will get first crack at closing duties. Suarez has been one of the premier closers in Japan the past two seasons, including 42 saves and a 1.16 ERA in 2021 for the Hanshin Tigers, but Rogers is certainly an option if he falters.
Remember, the San Diego bullpen was pretty solid last season -- fifth in the majors with a 3.62 ERA -- even though all the injuries to starters meant relievers had to chew up a ton of innings (only the Rays had more relief innings). With the additions of Rogers, Suarez and Luis Garcia (who pitched well for the Cardinals in 2021), the Padres project to once again have one of the better pens in the game, especially if Pomeranz returns to his pre-injury level.
Rooker is a 2017 supplemental first-round pick out of Mississippi State, a power-hitting corner outfielder who finally got his first extended playing time in 2021, but struggled with a .201/.291/.397 line in 213 plate appearances. The 70-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio (33% strikeout rate) needs a lot of work, but there is plus power here as he banged 20 home runs in 220 at-bats at Triple-A. Maybe he's a right-handed platoon bat with Matt Beaty in left field, allowing the Padres to use Jurickson Profar in a utility role. I'm not sure there's enough else to go with his power to make him all that useful, but the Padres did need a little more position-player depth.
The big negative here is that Rogers is eligible for free agency after 2022 while Paddack still has three years remaining of team control. Obviously, the Padres have soured on Paddack, and they did turn an extra starter into what should be a valuable late-game reliever.
Padres grade: B
The Twins definitely needed to add some rotation depth. Rookie Joe Ryan (with five career starts) will be Friday's Opening Day starter, with Sonny Gray, Dylan Bundy and Bailey Ober behind him in the rotation. Chris Archer is also a possibility, although maybe he now moves to the bullpen. Kenta Maeda will miss most or all of the season after Tommy John surgery and Minnesota has a couple prospects who could force their way into action later this season in Jordan Balazovic and Josh Winder, but Paddack gives the Twins a much-needed proven major leaguer.
The question with him, however: What will he bring to the table? He had a terrific rookie season in 2019, breaking camp with the Padres and going 9-7 with a 3.33 ERA over 26 starts and 140 innings. He relied on plus-plus command of his mid-90s fastball and one of the best changeups in the game. That combo worked well as a rookie, but he hasn't been able to replicate that success the past two seasons. The lack of an effective third pitch -- for now, it's a curveball that he threw 12.3% of the time in 2021 -- means right-handed batters have learned to tee off on his fastball (the changeup gives him a large platoon split as he's still effective against left-handed batters). Righties against his fastball:
2019: .200/.250/.369
2020: .303/.343/.667
2021: .328/.355/.575
Overall, right-handed batters hit .324/.354/.547 against Paddack in 2021 and he finished the season with a 5.07 ERA -- and also missed time with a UCL sprain that required a platelet-rich plasma injection. The key for him remains developing the curveball into an effective pitch against right-handers; as good as his command is, it hasn't been enough the past two seasons. Clearly, the Padres didn't believe this was happening, willing to trade away a pitcher who just a couple of years ago was viewed as one of the top young up-and-coming starters in the game. Batters did hit just .163 against the curveball in 2021, but that was just 45 plate appearances ending in the pitch -- and it's not a pitch he's trusted enough to throw much early in the count. For now, Paddack projects as a backend starter until he proves he can perform better against right-handers.
Pagan is an extreme fly ball pitcher who gives up a lot of home runs -- 16 in 63⅓ innings in 2021. He throws a high-spin four-seamer and a cutter and doesn't beat himself with walks, but batters barreled him up way too often last season as he allowed a 4.83 ERA. There's a path to success here -- he had a 2.31 ERA and 20 saves for the Rays in 2019 despite allowing 12 home runs in 70 innings -- but he's not exactly a pitcher you trust in big moments late in the game.
The Twins have several late-game options, although none of them are necessarily reliable. Jorge Alcala throws 97, so he may get first crack at closing. He allowed 10 home runs in 59 innings in 2021. Maybe it's lefty Caleb Thielbar, who had a 3.23 ERA and fanned 77 in 63 innings. Maybe it's Pagan. Tyler Duffey has had his moments. Veteran Joe Smith is here. Archer's fastball/slider combo could play up in relief. Rocco Baldelli will have to sort through things -- and hopefully avoid the early issues the bullpen had last season, when Colome blew three saves and lost three games in the first three weeks as the team got off to a 7-14 start.
When in doubt, I'll always take the starter over the reliever, and Paddack's three years of control is a plus. This could be a big win if Paddack figures things out; I'm just not confident that's going to happen, and Rogers' departure leaves a big hole in the pen.