It was only a matter of time before the Oakland Athletics continued their offseason purge and they traded one of their two remaining veteran starters. On Sunday, the A's sent left-hander Sean Manaea and minor league pitcher Aaron Holiday to the Padres for two prospects, infielder Euribiel Angeles and pitcher Adrian Martinez.
The only surprise is the Padres being the team receiving Manaea since they already have Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, Mike Clevinger, Chris Paddack, Nick Martinez, Dinelson Lamet, Ryan Weathers and MacKenzie Gore as rotation options. Why would they want another starting pitcher?
Two possibilities here:
(1) As the Padres unfortunately learned all too well last season, you can never have too much starting pitching. Projected to have one of the best rotations in the majors, by the end of the season the Padres had been so shredded by injuries they were forced to start Jake Arrieta and Vince Velasquez. Those two made four starts each and combined for 9.72 ERA -- and San Diego lost all eight of those games. The Padres were 59-42 on July 23, just four games out of first place, but would go 20-41 the rest of the way to finish under .500.
So, yeah, Manaea could just be more depth, especially since that group may not be as deep as it appears at first glance. Clevinger, coming back from the second Tommy John surgery of his career, has made one spring training appearance and allowed eight hits, seven runs and two home runs in just 1.2 innings. While he vowed to be "ready once the lights turn on," that outing was perhaps a sign that he'll need some time to round into form.
Lamet, the hard-throwing right-hander who was so good in 2020 when he had a 2.09 ERA over 12 starts with 93 strikeouts in 69 innings, missed the 2020 postseason with a UCL sprain in his elbow and then had four separate stints on the injured list in 2021 with elbow issues. His present and future may now be in the bullpen. He has pitched in four games this spring, all one-inning stints, and his fastball-slider combo could make him a late-winning weapon in relief.
Martinez, the former Rangers right-hander, returns to the majors after four seasons in Japan, including a dominant 2021 when he posted a 1.62 ERA. He should be in the rotation, but will have to show he's a better pitcher than the one who had a 4.77 ERA in four seasons with Texas.
Paddack, meanwhile, has been unable to replicate his spectacular 2019 rookie season, posting a 4.95 ERA over 2020-21 before he was shut down last September with his own UCL sprain.
Then there's Gore, the onetime top prospect who has had to rebuild his mechanics. He has looked good in spring training, with 11 strikeouts and one walk over nine innings, but he'll need time in Triple-A before the Padres trust him at the big league level.
(2) On the other hand, the Padres are likely just an intermediary stop for Manaea -- possibly on his way to the Mets. With Jacob deGrom going down for a lengthy period of time, the Mets and Padres had discussed a trade involving Paddack and Eric Hosmer for Dom Smith -- with the Padres looking to dump some of the $59 million remaining on Hosmer's contract. That deal fell apart, understandably from the Mets' perspective: Hosmer doesn't have much value and Paddack, who has never really developed a quality third pitch to go with his fastball and changeup, hasn't been as effective the past two seasons. Since signing with the Padres in 2018, Hosmer's WAR totals have been 0.9. -0.5, 1.3 and 1.0. He was excellent in the short COVID season in which he played just 38 games, but has otherwise been barely a replacement-level first baseman. Taking on his money just to acquire Paddack for Smith doesn't make a lot of sense, no matter how desperate the Mets are for a starting pitcher at the moment. Not that money is a roadblock for Steve Cohen, but it just wouldn't have been a smart baseball trade unless you think Paddack is a strong bet to turn things around.
Enter Manaea, who went 11-10 with a 3.79 ERA for the A's in 2021, making 32 starts and pitching 179 innings. In his last full season in 2018 (he had pitched through chronic shoulder impingements in 2017 and 2018 before finally shutting down for most of 2019), he averaged just 6.0 K's per nine, but last season he averaged 9.7. He was throwing his sinker harder (92.1 mph versus 90.4 in 2018) and switched his breaking ball from a slider to a low-spin curveball in 2020. With his plus command, he projects as a reliable No. 3-caliber starter.
This feels like the Padres might be saying to the Mets, "OK, you didn't want Paddack, but now you can have Manaea if you are willing to take on some of Hosmer's contract."
Indeed, the Padres have been trying to deal Hosmer all offseason. Before the Manaea trade, Cot's Contracts estimated the Padres were about $10 million below the $230 million luxury tax threshold while FanGraphs estimated $6 million under. Manaea will make $9.75 million in his final season before free agency, so that pushes the Padres right up to or over the tax threshold. That doesn't necessarily mean they will trade Manaea, as they and the Dodgers were the only teams to go over last season, but it's another indicator that Manaea's stay here might be short.
Look, if they can pull off a Manaea/Hosmer trade for Smith (who hit .299/366/.571 in 396 PAs over 2019-20, but then struggled to a .244/.304/.363 line last year in 493 PAs), it makes sense from a payroll view. I'm still not sure it makes the team any better -- unless the 2020 version of Smith shows up, in which case it would help the lineup. Still, just getting rid of Hosmer's contract will help the payroll flexibility for the next four years, and that's a good thing. And if Manaea stays with the Padres ... well, you can never have too much starting pitching.
Padres grade: B
As for Oakland, the only question was whether they would trade Manaea now or hold him to deal later in the season -- when teams may be even more desperate for pitching help. The risk, of course, is that Manaea could get injured and you would get nothing for him.
Angeles is the key prospect here. He played shortstop, second base and third base in Class A and hit .343/.397/.461 for low-A Lake Elsinore in his age-19 season before getting promoted for 18 games at high-A Fort Wayne where he hit .264. He has some speed (19 steals) and good contact skills (15.7% strikeout rate), but probably is more second baseman than shortstop. The power hasn't arrived yet (with just four home runs) and he didn't crack Kiley McDaniel's top 10 Padres prospects, but he came in at No. 12 on MLB.com's list. He's a young player who has produced in the low minors; you never know, but looks like a decent sleeper prospect with some intriguing potential at the plate if he adds some strength.
As with the Matt Olson and Matt Chapman deals, the A's also picked up a potential major-league-ready arm in Martinez, who had a 2.34 ERA at Double-A before getting dinged around in nine starts at Triple-A El Paso with a 5.28 ERA (El Paso is not a fun place to pitch). He sits 92-96 with a plus changeup and could help the A's this year. MLB.com rates Angeles and Martinez at No. 10 and 25 in the A's system. For one year of Manaea, it's a decent return, and the A's clearly like Angeles enough to make this deal now rather than wait for the slight premium that usually happens in July trades. It also signals that Frankie Montas will be up next. I'm sure the Mets will be calling.