As we enter the final days before the calendar flips to 2025 after a rush of free agent movement around the holidays, it's a perfect time to take stock of what we've seen so far.
A little more than $2.5 billion in guarantees has already been handed out to free agents this winter. Another billion is likely to be spent on a list of remaining players that includes Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso and Jack Flaherty, while the anticipated free agency of Roki Sasaki will ramp up in January.
With the majority of the big offseason moves behind us while we wait for those left to find homes, these are among my favorite -- and least favorite -- moves so far.
Favorite moves
Gleyber Torres, 2B, Detroit Tigers
Contract: One year, $15 million
Torres had a good case for a multiyear deal coming off a strong second half driven by a lowered strikeout rate, along with a solid playoff showing and hitting free agency with two full seasons left in which he will still be in his 20s. He is just one year removed from a 3.6 WAR season and ended up signing for more than $5 million below the qualifying offer.
There's also a chance the Tigers gain a draft pick if he leaves next winter after turning down the QO, assuming he has a big season in Detroit. Torres has all the motivation to put up a career year to land a big multiyear deal next winter, and being in a lower-key environment than the Bronx could be a better fit for him. He has positional versatility, but has been regressing in that area of late, in addition to his mental lapses. Righting the ship defensively while hitting like he did in the second half all season could bring him a big guarantee next winter, with Detroit getting strong value for this one-year contract in the process.
Walker Buehler, RHP, Boston Red Sox
Contract: One year, $21.05 million
Shane Bieber, RHP, Cleveland Guardians
Contract: Two years, $26 million
I'll lump these pitchers two together as both have shown front-line ability recently and were scooped up for small guarantees.
Buehler is probably more of a No. 3 or No. 4 starter than a staff ace going forward (I think he'll settle as a No. 3 guy), though his 2024 season line shows he was still adjusting to a new reality with less dynamic raw stuff. He gave a glimpse of that promising new self down the stretch and in the playoffs, and I think Boston is getting a nice bargain for a midrotation starter when some players of that caliber are commanding close to $100 million this winter.
Bieber will miss about half of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery, so Cleveland is paying something like $17 million per year for a year and half of his return. His velocity had been on the decline (94.3 mph average velo in 2020, 91.5 mph in 2022), which mapped to his effectiveness as well. In his two starts before blowing out in 2024, his velo was up (92.5 mph) and so was his overall stuff and effectiveness. Even if he regresses to a bit below that level, a short-term deal for under $20 million per year is a nice price for a steady midrotation player with upside for more.
Garrett Crochet, LHP, Boston Red Sox
Trade: Acquired from White Sox for Kyle Teel, Braden Montgomery, Chase Meidroth, Wikelman Gonzalez
Crochet was the hottest name on the winter trade market, as an ace-adjacent pitcher -- if not an ace -- on a way-below-market contract for the next two seasons, which is also the window to either lock him into an extension before he hits free agency or grab a compensatory pick when he does.
Boston put together a strong package that fits what the White Sox needed, but I don't think it includes a future star. Boston's scouting/development success the past few years allowed it to make a deal like this without trading one of its best prospects. Given how the Red Sox seem focused on building their roster, controllable solid players are needed for putting together a sustainable contender, with stars being the key variables, and Crochet is one.
Other deals I liked: I also saw a trend of solid values in one-year deals for free agent position players including Paul Goldschmidt, Michael Conforto and Carson Kelly.
Least favorite moves
Frankie Montas, RHP, New York Mets
Contract: Two years, $34 million
Unlike the position-player market, where teams have been able to find value on short-term deals, the price for starting pitching is sky-high this offseason. These three moves are manifestations of that reality, which has hit a new level even from last offseason. These are just a few of the moves that could be highlighted as examples of the need to overpay for starting pitching, which has come up often in my conversations with scouts, execs and even agents.
Montas was a 4 WAR starter in 2021 when he pitched a career-high 187 innings, but he has settled at around 150 innings in recent years (notwithstanding a shoulder surgery that cost him almost all of 2023). His 2024 campaign was bad on a per-inning basis: a 4.84 ERA, 4.71 xERA and 4.71 FIP as his walks climbed. There's a case to be made that his above-average stuff could bring him back to his old level with better control, but he'll be 32 soon, and I'm not certain he'll have a sub-4.00 ERA while pitching over 150 innings in a season again.
Nate Eovaldi, RHP, Texas Rangers
Contract: 3 years, $75 million
Eovaldi is a really good, playoff-proven pitcher who I thought would get two years at a premium average annual value when I projected a two-year, $45 million deal going into the winter. He got a third year -- with the whole contract at an even higher AAV. Eovaldi turns 35 in February and I'm confident Texas will get at least one more solid season out of him, but I'm not sure it should count on much beyond that.
Alex Cobb, RHP, Detroit Tigers
Contract: One year, $15 million
Cobb is another solid pitcher who just got more money this winter than many thought he was worth at this point. He's 37 and made just three appearances in the 2024 regular season due to hip surgery. He also has another hip procedure and a Tommy John surgery on his resume, so the injuries are beginning to become a cause for concern. His strikeout rate and velocity were still above average as recently as 2022, but now the hope is he'll have enough health and effectiveness for a No. 3 or No. 4 starter outcome coming off two seasons that suggest he might instead land in the 2024 Montas area.