It's the second part of our post-Christmas key stat extravaganza. Of course, the number that sticks out in the National League is the $765 million the Mets gave Juan Soto -- but that doesn't count toward our exercise.
Let's dig into the one stat that will make or break each team in the NL for 2025.
Part 1: Key number for all 15 American League teams
Arizona Diamondbacks
The number: 4.79
The Diamondbacks led the majors in runs scored but missed the playoffs because their rotation ranked 27th in the majors in ERA. It was especially disappointing because Arizona had signed Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez as free agents, only to see them go a combined 11-12 with a 5.87 ERA in 31 starts. By the end of the season, Montgomery had been moved to the bullpen and owner Ken Kendrick called signing him "a horrible decision" and blamed himself for pushing Montgomery on the front office.
For now, Montgomery remains on the team, as his $22.5 million salary will make him difficult to trade. Rodriguez is on the books for $20 million -- for three more years. They should also get a full season out of Merrill Kelly, who made only 13 starts in 2024 after his strong 2023 season. So, the rotation should be better in 2025, right? We'll see. Montgomery and Rodriguez were both somewhat risky signings due to average-ish strikeout rates even before their 2024 struggles. Montgomery's K-rate dipped from 21.4% in 2023 to just 15.6%. Rodriguez dropped from 23% to 21%, well below his career high of 27.4% in 2021. Overall, the Diamondbacks ranked 24th in the majors in rotation strikeout rate. With their offense, they don't need the rotation to be great to make the playoffs -- but they do need it to be a lot better to compete with the Dodgers at the top of the division.
Atlanta Braves
The number: 243
The Braves scored 243 fewer runs than 2023 -- and won 15 fewer games. It's certainly not a surprise the Braves weren't able to repeat their historic offensive performance from 2023, but it was shocking to see them drop from first in the majors in runs scored (41 more runs than any other team) all the way to 15th. A season-ending knee injury for 2023 MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. didn't help, but he wasn't hitting that well before he went down. In fact, Marcell Ozuna was the only player in the lineup who hit as well in 2024 as in 2023.
So what should we expect in 2025? The Braves are bringing all their regulars back except catcher Travis d'Arnaud, who signed with the Angels. They signed outfielder Bryan De La Cruz, but he is coming off a .271 OBP, so he's unlikely to help much. On the bright side, Ozuna is the only regular who is older than 31, so better seasons should be expected across the lineup. If we take the middle between 2023 and 2024, we get 826 runs scored. Ahh ... but the pitching was much better in 2024, even though Spencer Strider was injured and needed Tommy John surgery. Strider will hopefully return at some point, but we can probably expect some regression in the runs allowed total especially since Max Fried left for the Yankees in free agency. If we take the middle between 2023 and 2024, we get 662 runs allowed. Those projected totals give us 99 wins -- higher than the Vegas over/under of 94½ wins.
Chicago Cubs
The number: minus-1.14
The Cubs ranked 25th in the majors in bullpen win probability added in 2024 after they were 17th in 2023, ninth in 2022 and 15th in 2021. One thing the Jed Hoyer regime has been unable to do: build consistently effective bullpens. Craig Counsell, who managed great bullpens in Milwaukee, was supposed to help turn around this trend, but the Cubs again underperformed their Pythagorean record (by seven wins under David Ross in 2023 and by five wins under Counsell in 2024).
Barring any further additions -- and there are still some good relievers out there in free agency -- the Cubs will be counting primarily on internal improvement. They did trade for Eli Morgan, who had a 1.93 ERA in 42 innings with Cleveland and 3.27 over the past three seasons. But the big difference-maker should be Porter Hodge, who picked up nine saves as a rookie with a 1.88 ERA over 43 innings. Hodge is a big guy (6-foot-4) who gets elite extension and owns a wipeout four-seamer/sweeper combo. Batters hit .132 against him. The Cubs haven't had a 25-save reliever since Wade Davis in 2017, so Hodge could become their first elite closer in years. But they'll need others to step up: FanGraphs currently ranks the Cubs' bullpen 26th in projected WAR. I think it's better than that, but it's hardly a sure thing.
Cincinnati Reds
The number: 218
Elly De La Cruz led the majors with 218 strikeouts -- whiffing on 31.3% of his plate appearances. De La Cruz still had a terrific season: .259/.339/.471, 71 extra-base hits, 105 runs, 67 steals, 5.2 WAR and an eighth-place finish in the National League MVP voting. But how good would he be if he cut down on his strikeout rate? After all, his wRC+ of 118 was the same as Jesse Winker and Bryan Reynolds, tied for 44th among qualified hitters.
Let's see. If he cuts his strikeout down to 25%, that's an extra 44 balls in play. If he produces at the same rate on contact and keeps the same walk rate, that's an extra 15 hits and two home runs, raising his overall line to .283/.359/.515 with 27 home runs. In raw OPS, De La Cruz would jump from 27th in the majors to 12th (although would still rank lower in wRC+, which adjusts for home park). Now, a 6% decrease in strikeout rate would be a huge improvement in only one season. But De La Cruz will also be only 23 years old and with over 1,000 plate appearances in the majors, so more improvement is possible, just as he made big gains from his rookie season. Then factor in that his quality of contact could also improve and that OPS could leap into the top 10 and the Reds would have the dominant hitter they need to boost an offense that ranked ninth in the NL in runs.
Colorado Rockies
The number: .269
That was Ezequiel Tovar's batting average -- and, remarkably, that led all qualified hitters on the Rockies (Elias Diaz hit .270 but batted only 327 times). In 2023, Diaz led qualified Colorado hitters with a .267 average. In 2022, it was Brendan Rodgers at .266. In 2021, C.J. Cron led at .281. The point here: The Rockies don't have any good hitters. Yes, batting averages across the league are lower than any time since 1968, but the Rockies used to churn out batting champions like butter: Charlie Blackmon (2017), DJ LeMahieu (2016), Justin Morneau (2014), Michael Cuddyer (2013), Carlos Gonzalez (2010) and Matt Holliday (2007) all won a title.
In fact, these Rockies hit just .217 on the road as a team. Yet it appears they'll bring back the same crew. Hope Nolan Jones bounces back. Hope Kris Bryant stays healthy. Hope Michael Toglia hits 40 home runs. Tovar is perhaps entering a make-or-break offensive year. He has surprising pop -- 75 extra-base hits including a league-leading 45 doubles -- but throws that away with poor plate discipline. He walked 23 times and struck out 200 times. With his Gold Glove-winning defense, he has a chance to be an All-Star player if he can improve his approach, get on base more and drive the ball more consistently by swinging at strikes. He's still just 23, so there's ... well, hope. But the Rockies haven't been very good at this sort of thing in a long time.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The number: 22
Tyler Glasnow started 22 games in 2024 -- the most of any returning Dodgers starter (Gavin Stone started 24 times but he already has been ruled out for the season after shoulder surgery). Indeed, of the five pitchers who started the most games for the Dodgers, only two are expected to be in the 2025 rotation: Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
And yet ... the initial over/under for the Dodgers is 103½ wins. Very rarely does a team come in at 100 wins and the Dodgers' line is nine wins higher than any other team. They signed Blake Snell, but he made only 20 starts last season and has pitched more than 130 innings only twice in his nine years in the majors -- his two Cy Young seasons. Sure, there's huge upside there and I loved the signing (mostly for October since Snell has always pitched better in the second half), but he's hardly a lock to start 30 times.
So why the optimism on the win total? Just the idea that things can't be as bad as 2024. But outside of Glasnow, Yamamoto and Snell -- which could be a dominant trio, of course -- there are no guarantees. Bobby Miller will try to find his 2023 form. Landon Knack had his moments as a rookie. Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin and Emmett Sheehan are trying to return from injuries. River Ryan and Kyle Hurt probably will sit out the season after Tommy John surgeries. The Dodgers have options, but it's also fair to wonder if they'll sign at least one more veteran starter for a little more early season insurance.
Miami Marlins
The number: 105.1
Trevor Rogers led the Marlins in innings pitched in 2024 -- even though he was traded to Baltimore in July. Only the 2019 Angels had a team leader with fewer innings than Rogers' 105⅓ (not including shortened seasons).
Obviously, injuries were the primary reason as Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez sat out the season because of Tommy John surgery. Alcantara, who had his surgery at the end of 2023, will be ready for spring training. Perez will hopefully return later in the season. The Marlins skimmed from some of their potential depth in trading Jesus Luzardo to the Phillies last week. They also let Sixto Sanchez go, closing the door on their ill-fated J.T. Realmuto trade. They'll hope for full seasons from Braxton Garrett and Ryan Weathers. And we didn't even get to the offense. The early over/under line on the Marlins is 63½ wins. I'll take the under.
Milwaukee Brewers
The number: 13.14
The Brewers ranked second in the majors in bullpen win probability added (behind Cleveland). But that actually undersells how clutch their bullpen was: the fourth highest WPA since 1969. Even more remarkable: The 2023 Brewers bullpen ranks seventh, so they somehow managed to get even better after having one of the best bullpen seasons of all time.
Alas, closer Devin Williams has been traded to the Yankees leaving Trevor Megill, who filled in while Williams was injured in the first half of the season, to take over on a full-time basis. Though he had a good season and the Brewers have been effective at building strong bullpens for years, it feels as if the surest bet of 2025 is the Milwaukee bullpen will regress. It's just a matter of how much. Consider the following numbers: The Brewers' pen ranked 15th in strikeout rate, ninth in walk rate and 16th in home run rate. The relievers were effective at limiting hits and they were clutch, but the peripheral numbers weren't exactly dominant.
New York Mets
The number: 64
Juan Soto created about 64 more runs than the average hitter with the Yankees in 2024, according to Baseball-Reference.com. Mets right fielders, meanwhile, hit .258/.314/.395 with 14 home runs and 67 RBIs, making them collectively about a major league average hitter (the MLB average was .243/.312/.399). That suggests Soto will add six to seven wins or so if he can repeat his 2024 season -- minus whatever he gives away on defense.
Soto certainly has a chance to deliver the best batting season in Mets history. Using the batting runs stat from Baseball-Reference, the top three:
John Olerud, 1998: +55 runs (.354/.447/.551)
Darryl Strawberry, 1987: +50 runs (.284/.398/.583)
David Wright, 2007: +48 runs (.325/.,416/.546)
At a minimum, Soto will give the Mets a rare .400 OBP. That has happened only 13 times in franchise history from a qualified hitter (and two of those in the shortened 2020 season). The Mets haven't finished in the top two in the NL in runs scored since 2008 and haven't led the NL in runs since 1990. Soto gives them a chance to change that.
Philadelphia Phillies
The number: 16.0
The Phillies ranked third in FanGraphs' WAR for starting pitching, behind only the Braves and Royals. And they did that even though Taijuan Walker, Tyler Phillips, Kolby Allard and a couple of others combined for a 7.65 ERA across 30 starts at the back end (although somehow managed to go 10-11). So Dave Dombrowki pulled out the back of the envelope, did some calculus and figured, "Hey, why not add a fifth starter?"
Last week, he acquired Jesus Luzardo from the Marlins. Luzardo sat out the final three-plus months because of a lumbar stress reaction and also sat out time earlier in the season because of elbow tightness, so the trade isn't without risk, but Luzardo was one of the top starters in the majors in 2022-23. If he can find his 2023 form -- 3.8 WAR -- the Phillies could conceivably climb over 20 WAR from the rotation. Indeed, FanGraphs currently projects the Phillies as the No. 1 rotation in the majors with 16.9 WAR. It will be difficult to match the 2011 rotation -- that was one of the best of all time -- but this group has a chance to be one of the best in Phillies history. And that could make the Phillies the favorite to repeat in the NL East.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The number: 1.96
That's Paul Skenes' rookie season ERA -- not officially a record since he didn't pitch enough innings to qualify, but his 5.9 WAR was the highest for a rookie pitcher since Michael Soroka's 6.1 in 2019 and, really, you have to back to Jose Fernandez in 2013 to find a rookie starter who matched Skenes' overall dominance.
What's in store for 2025? Fernandez had Tommy John surgery eight starts into his second season, so let's hope Skenes will avoid that. Here are some of the best sophomore seasons of the divisional era (since 1969):
Dwight Gooden, 1985: 24-4, 1.53 ERA, 12.2 WAR
Vida Blue, 1971: 24-8, 1.82 ERA, 9.0 WAR
Mike Mussina, 1992: 18-5, 2.54 ERA, 8.2 WAR
Tim Lincecum, 2008: 18-5, 2.62 ERA, 7.8 WAR
Kyle Freeland, 2018: 17-7, 2.85 ERA, 7.7 WAR
Mark Prior, 2003: 18-6, 2.43 ERA, 7.4 WAR
Bret Saberhagen, 1985: 20-6, 2.87 ERA, 7.1 WAR
Gooden is the gold standard -- that is arguably the best season for any pitcher since 1969 -- and he, Blue, Lincecum and Saberhagen won Cy Young Awards. Skenes probably will be the betting favorite entering the season. The question is how many innings will he pitch? He pitched 160 last season in making 30 starts between Triple-A and Pittsburgh, so an extra 20% gets him to 192 innings. If he produces WAR at the same rate as 2024, that's an 8.5-WAR season and no starter has done that since Aaron Nola and Jacob deGrom in 2018.
San Diego Padres
The number: .314
Luis Arraez hit .314 to win his third consecutive batting title -- becoming the first player to win three in a row since Miguel Cabrera from 2011 to 2013. Of course, what makes Arraez even more fascinating is he won his first one with the Twins -- and then they traded him to the Marlins. Then he won with the Marlins -- and they traded him to the Padres. And now the Padres are reportedly shopping Arraez as well. On one level, that makes sense: Because Arraez doesn't walk much, can't run, doesn't have much power and has little defensive value, his Baseball-Reference WAR in 2024 came in at a miniscule 1.0 WAR.
But I don't think that's the why the Padres might be looking to trade him. After all, he was worth 4.2 WAR in 2022 and 4.9 in 2023 (as he got on base more and was a little better in the field). Arraez is set to make an estimated $14.6 million in 2025 -- his final year before free agency, so the Padres aren't necessarily unhappy with what Arraez provides but are looking to trim payroll and get something for him before he hits free agency. The problem: Who replaces him? Ha-Seong Kim is also a free agent and while Jake Cronenworth gives them infield versatility, the Padres' 40-man depth is among the weakest in the majors (and left fielder Jurickson Profar is also a free agent). Trading Arraez is one thing, but losing Arraez, Kim and Profar would collectively be a big loss.
San Francisco Giants
The number: 27
Matt Chapman led the Giants with 27 home runs -- which means the franchise's last 30-home run hitter remains Barry Bonds back in 2004. Of course, the Giants also won the World Series in 2010, 2012 and 2014 without a 30-home run hitter, but the game has changed since then. In 2010, the average NL team hit 150 home runs; in 2012, 152; in 2014, 135. In 2024, it was 183. The Giants hit 177 but note that of the nine teams that hit fewer than 183 home runs, only the Brewers (who also hit 177), made the playoffs. Of the six teams to hit more than 183, five made the playoffs and the other one (the Diamondbacks) led the majors in runs scored.
The Giants' big move has been signing shortstop Willy Adames, who hit 32 home runs for the Brewers and also 31 in 2022. Of course, hitting 30 home runs in Milwaukee is a lot different than hitting 30 home runs in San Francisco. Over the past three seasons, Adames hit 15 more home runs at home than on the road. He'll help in the power department and his presence also should allow Tyler Fitzgerald to move to second base and provide a huge upgrade there on offense after Giants second basemen hit .215/.251/.352 last season. Their first basemen also hit only 14 home runs, tied for next to last in the majors. That total makes you wonder if the Giants are a sleeper team to sign Pete Alonso -- a player who could hit 30 in San Francisco.
St. Louis Cardinals
The number: 12
The Cardinals finished 12th in the NL in runs scored. Their ranking in this category since 2019: 10th, 12th, 10th, 3rd, 10th, 12th. For all the talk about the Cardinals' inability to develop starting pitching in recent years, the offense has been below average in five of the past six years, with the exception being when Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado finished first and third in the MVP voting in 2022. As those two declined over the past two seasons, so did the offense. Goldschmidt signed with the Yankees and Arenado is on the trade block, so will the offense get better?
Nolan Gorman will take over for Arenado once he's presumably traded, but Gorman went backward in his third season in the majors, eventually earning a demotion to Triple-A. His strikeout and swing-and-miss rates dropped to the first percentile and after crushing fastballs in 2023 (.569 slugging), he hit .207 and slugged .418 against them in 2024. Jordan Walker remains in the mix but his star has diminished after dropping from a 113 OPS+ as a rookie in 2023 to a 71 OPS+ and spending the majority of the season in Triple-A (where he hit .263 and slugged .427). Walker's inability to get the ball in the air often remains an issue. Willson Contreras will move to first base, with Ivan Herrera taking over as the regular catcher after hitting .301/.372/.428 in 2024. If Masyn Winn improves and Lars Nootbaar stays healthy, you can see the potential for a solid offense, but they'll need Gorman and Walker to turn things around in a big way.
Washington Nationals
The number: 20
CJ Abrams hit 20 home runs at age 23. That's pretty elite company: In the divisional era (since 1969), only 18 shortstops have hit at least 20 home runs in their age-23 season. Abrams' power development has been surprising as he had been projected as more of speedy singles hitter as a prospect. But what's harder to know is if Abrams can make a leap forward in his age-24 season and turn into a franchise cornerstone?
His demotion last September after a late night at a casino points to a maturity issue that obviously concerned manager Dave Martinez, but Abrams' on-field performance likewise remains immature. Despite his athleticism, his defensive metrics at shortstop are poor: first percentile in Statcast's outs above average (although he was average via defensive runs saved). His chase rate ranked in the 11th percentile. After making the All-Star team with a strong first half, he hit .203 with a .586 OPS in the second half. He declined from 47 steals in 51 attempts to 31 in 43 attempts. Right now, he's a good player; we'll see if he can turn into the star the Nationals need.