We had a flurry of of activity just before Christmas, but some significant free agents are still available: Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Santander top the list of position players while the unsigned pitchers include starters Corbin Burnes, Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta as well as relievers Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman and Kirby Yates.
Though the new year will bring more market movement, let's look ahead to 2025 by pulling one key statistic for each MLB team from 2024 and addressing what it means for the upcoming season.
We'll start with the American League and then tackle the National League on Friday.
Athletics
The number: 39-37
The A's had a winning record over the final three months -- perhaps a sign of good things to come in 2025. Years ago, Bill James showed that second-half records were an indicator for the following season. It's unclear how much that holds true, but consider the Royals, who improved 30 wins in 2024. They were 26-65 (.286) in the first half of 2023 and 30-41 in the second (.423). Even the A's improved 19 wins in 2024, and they had been better in the second half in 2023 (though still generally awful).
It's also true that the A's were awful in September, going 10-16 and getting outscored by 50 runs. Still, they are showing some push to be more competitive in 2025. They signed Luis Severino and traded for Jeffrey Springs -- and those two should be the top two starters for a rotation that ranked 26th in the majors in ERA. The A's signed Gio Urshela, but he's hardly the fix at third base given his low OBP and lack of power. They could also use an upgrade in left field. The A's are interesting and the AL West could be ripe for the taking, but another bat and an additional bullpen arm or two would help.
Baltimore Orioles
The number: 4.40
That's the number of runs the Orioles averaged in August and September as they faded to a 26-28 record the final two months -- and then scored one run in two games in a wild-card-series loss to Kansas City. That's after averaging 5.07 runs per game through July. The Orioles still finished with the second most runs in the AL, but to get back to the 100-win level of 2023, they'll need to count on six months of high-powered offense, especially since the left-field wall is being moved in from Hagerstown, Maryland, to a more reasonable distance.
They should have the depth to do that, even with Santander and his 44 home runs likely departing in free agency. Jordan Westburg, an All-Star in the first half, got injured and played just six games after July 31. Adley Rutschman wasn't the same after suffering a hand injury June 27, hitting .189 the rest of the way. Jackson Holliday will be better. The Orioles have also added two right-handed pull hitters -- Tyler O'Neill and Gary Sanchez -- to take advantage of the new outfield dimensions. They could have the best offense in the league.
Boston Red Sox
The number: 8.7
That's Jarren Duran's 2024 WAR, the seventh highest for a Red Sox position player during the divisional era (since 1969). The problem: He was the only Red Sox player -- position player or pitcher -- to top 4.0 WAR. Consider the recent Boston teams that have won World Series titles: The 2018 team had five players with 4-plus WAR, the 2013 champs had five and the 2007 and 2004 clubs each had six. Those teams were built on star power. The Red Sox generally seem to be going in the right direction, but they remain thin in that department.
New starter Garrett Crochet could get there, though. He posted 4.1 WAR for the White Sox while seeing his innings limited in the second half. Rafael Devers has had seasons of 5.4 and 4.5 WAR, although his defense drags down his overall value. Tanner Houck could also reach that mark, or maybe Wilyer Abreu or Ceddanne Rafaela, who both had fine rookie seasons highlighted by their outstanding defense. The Red Sox have acquired additional rotation depth besides Crochet, adding Walker Buehler and Patrick Sandoval, but for them to end a three-year playoff drought, they need a couple of the young players to step up as Duran did in 2024.
Chicago White Sox
The number: 49
The White Sox bullpen set major league records in 2024 with 49 losses and a minus-11.22 win probability added. How bad was that? Only two other bullpens (the 1990 Braves and 1999 Royals) had even reached minus-10 WPA. Since 2010, 13 teams have lost at least 105 games (we're kind of in a golden age of bad baseball teams). Leaving aside the three teams that did it in 2019, the other 10 teams improved from an average of 109 losses to 93 losses from one season to the next. A 16-win improvement would push the White Sox to only 57 wins -- and as sad as that sounds, that's probably a realistic goal for 2025.
Chicago's best chance to get there will have to come from its bullpen because the offense is still a horror show and the rotation is missing its two best pitchers from last season, Crochet and Erick Fedde. The White Sox have made a few minor transactions in the pitching department: signing Bryse Wilson, acquiring lefty Cam Booser from the Red Sox and selecting Shane Smith from the Brewers in the Rule 5 draft. Chicago's top returning saves guy is Jordan Leasure, who had two -- and a 6.32 ERA. It seems more help might be needed.
Cleveland Guardians
The number: 14.88
In contrast to the White Sox, the Guardians had one of the best bullpens of all time, with a 2.57 ERA and an MLB-record 14.88 win probability added (surpassing the 13.52 mark of the 2012 Orioles). Other than Nick Sandlin, who was traded to the Blue Jays, everyone is back. Closer Emmanuel Clase is coming off a historic season with 47 saves and a 0.61 ERA.
What to expect in 2025? Certainly some regression -- it's difficult to be that good again (although the 2023 Brewers had a top-10 all-time WPA and were even better in 2024). Look at how the top-10 bullpens in WPA since 1969 (eight of those came since 2002) performed the following season: They declined from an average of 12.0 WPA to 4.8, meaning they were about seven losses worse.
A lot of that regression will come down to Clase. He lost nine games in 2023 with a 3.22 ERA, but his ERA has been under 2.00 in his other three seasons. He might not post a 0.61 ERA again, but he's a good bet to remain one of the best closers in the game, no matter what happened in October. Hunter Gaddis and Cade Smith are less likely to post sub-2.00 ERAs again, but this projects as one of the best pens in the majors -- Cleveland will just have to build a few extra losses into its projections.
Detroit Tigers
The number: .300
That was the Tigers' on-base percentage as a team -- only the 1968 Cardinals reached the playoffs with a lower OBP, and they did it without a DH in the Year of the Pitcher. Outside of Riley Greene (.348), Kerry Carpenter (.345) and free agent Mark Canha (.337), the Tigers lacked guys who could get on base -- in fact, only the lowly White Sox had a lower team OBP. And Detroit's big move to add offense has been ... nothing. It hasn't made one.
And, no, when the Tigers got hot the final seven weeks, the offense didn't really get any better. The Tigers had a .677 OPS in September, close to their season mark of .685. Even if they're doubling down on being a pitching-and-defense team, they'll probably need a little more offense if they hope to return to the playoffs. As of now, those gains will have to come internally.
Colt Keith is a prime candidate to improve, coming off a rookie season in which he hit .260/.309/.380 (he had a .380 OBP in the minors). Jace Jung, penciled in as the third baseman, had a .362 OBP in 94 plate appearances with the Tigers and a .377 mark in Triple-A, although he has never hit for much of an average (.257 at Toledo). The Tigers are reportedly still pursuing Bregman, but he's coming off a career-low .315 OBP. Trey Sweeney will presumably take over at shortstop and he'll get on base more than Javier Baez, but he also projects as a low average/low OBP/moderate power hitter. If those three players produce at the top of their projection, maybe it will be enough, but the Tigers really need an elite OBP guy. Granted, the ultimate OBP guy ended up costing $765 million.
Houston Astros
The number: 3.31
That was the rotation ERA over the final four months of the season -- as the Astros rebounded from a slow start to go 63-40 in that span and return to the postseason. Certainly, the dynasty is teetering, especially after trading away Kyle Tucker and almost certainly losing Bregman in free agency. But though it feels as if everyone wants to bury the Astros, this rotation can carry them to yet another AL West title.
The rotation improvement came from three key factors:
(1) Hunter Brown began using a sinker in May to go with his four-seamer (he had a 2.20 ERA over his final 19 starts).
(2) Framber Valdez found his groove after a slow start (2.38 ERA in the final four months).
(3) Spencer Arrighetti improved from a 6.93 ERA in his first eight starts to 3.69 after that.
The Astros also have Ronel Blanco, and we'll see what they get from their fifth starter (and beyond). But if Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes can pick up enough of the missing offense from losing Tucker and Bregman, a ninth straight postseason appearance is possible.
Kansas City Royals
The number: 32/31
Bobby Witt Jr. hit 32 home runs and stole 31 bases for the second 30/30 season in Royals history (he had the other one in 2023). More impressively, he hit .332 on his way to 9.4 WAR. Of the 72 30/30 seasons in MLB history, Witt's 9.4 WAR ranks sixth -- behind Mookie Betts (2018), Mike Trout (2012), Larry Walker (1997) and two Barry Bonds seasons (1990 and 1996).
What can Witt do for an encore? Coming off a miracle season in which they improved from 56 wins to 86 and a wild card, the Royals will likely need a similar performance from him to get back there, even if that's asking the impossible. The good news is that Witt has an area that is still ripe for improvement: He ranked in the 25th percentile in chase rate. He somehow hit .288 when swinging at pitches out of the zone -- the MLB average is .155 -- but imagine the additional damage he might do if he learns to control the strike zone a little better. If Witt does that, he'll become the second MVP in Royals history.
Los Angeles Angels
The number: 20.4%
Only the Rockies had a lower strikeout rate from their pitching staff in 2024 than the Angels -- and L.A. doesn't get to use the altitude as an excuse. Where will the strikeouts come from in 2025? The Angels have made two significant additions to the pitching staff. Yusei Kikuchi is coming off a high 28.0% strikeout rate, which ranked eighth among qualifying starters (and it was 31.8% with the Astros, after he started throwing his slider more). Kyle Hendricks, meanwhile, is coming off a 15.3% strikeout rate, so he's less likely to bounce back from a rough season with the Cubs.
An interesting arm in the Angels' bullpen is Ben Joyce and his triple-digit fastball (he clocked as high as 105 mph). He should take over as closer after posting a 2.08 ERA in 34 ⅔ innings -- although, his 23.2% strikeout rate was hardly elite for a top reliever. A big wild card is Reid Detmers, who fanned 109 in 87 innings but still was hammered for a 6.70 ERA. He has strikeout stuff but lost the feel for his curveball -- an effective pitch for him in the past -- in 2024.
Minnesota Twins
The number: 3-22
That was the Twins' record against the Yankees (0-6), Guardians (3-10) and Orioles (0-6), the three best teams in the AL in 2024. The Twins went 5-9 against the three best AL teams in 2023 (when they won a weak AL Central with 87 wins) and 6-14 against them in 2022 (finishing 78-84). That's a three-year record of 14-45 against the top three teams in the AL. It seems as if the Twins just aren't talented enough to beat the best teams.
It's unclear how they'll change that in 2025. Certainly, getting Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton on the field more often will help -- but at this point, can you really count on those three averaging, say, 130 games? Not really. The Twins have the versatility to fill in for that trio with multi-faceted Willi Castro plus shortstop Brooks Lee. But the Twins, hamstrung by their payroll situation, have been unable to add new talent to the roster. The division is still winnable, but they'll have to figure out how to beat Cleveland head-to-head.
New York Yankees
The number: 64
Juan Soto created about 64 more runs than the average hitter in 2024. New lefty acquisition Cody Bellinger, when prorated to the same number of plate appearances, created about six runs more than the average hitter. OK, not great -- but the Yankees are also replacing the worst first-base production in the majors with Paul Goldschmidt. Goldschmidt projects to be only a few runs better than an average hitter, but that could still be a 25-run improvement over what the Yankees got at first base in 2024. Add it up and that's about three-to-four fewer wins on offense -- but with better defense in center field (Bellinger over Aaron Judge) and in right field (Judge over Soto). Then, throw in starter Max Fried and reliever Devin Williams and the Yankees have appeared to adequately replace Soto. They'll miss his bat, but the pitching and defense should be better.
Seattle Mariners
The number: 4.05
That's the road ERA for the vaunted Mariners rotation -- which, ahem, ranked only 10th in the majors. The much-maligned offense? No, not a powerhouse, but it ranked 12th in the majors in runs scored on the road -- only three fewer than the Phillies, and nobody says the Phillies' offense stinks. And the main reason the Mariners scuffled to a 36-45 record on the road (despite outscoring their opponents by 20 runs)? The bullpen had a 4.42 ERA -- as opposed to 3.06 at home.
The point, of course, is about park effects: T-Mobile Park is perhaps the most extreme pitcher's park and leads to poor analysis of why the Mariners fell short in 2024. The rotation was good -- but it's probably not the best in the majors (Baseball-Reference ranked the Mariners' rotation 10th in WAR, while FanGraphs ranked it fourth). Likewise, the position group isn't as bad as advertised: 10th in bWAR, 14th in fWAR.
Yes, the Mariners need a third baseman and maybe a first baseman/DH, and president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has been strangely quiet this offseason. He hasn't traded a starting pitcher, which is probably the right call, because they lack depth beyond the top five. But the Mariners' biggest concern might be that bullpen -- and they haven't addressed that area either.
Tampa Bay Rays
The number: Minus-7
The one constant for the Rays has been good defense. Since their breakout season in 2008, they've consistently put good athletes all over the field and often ranked as one of the best defensive teams in the majors via defensive runs saved. They've ranked below average in that stat just twice since 2008: minus-26 in 2014 (when they finished 77-85) and then minus-7 in 2024, when they finished 80-82. The biggest culprits were Amed Rosario (minus-10, no longer on the team), Randy Arozarena (minus-5, no longer on the team) and Yandy Diaz (minus-5).
But the Rays also traded their best defender, center fielder Jose Siri, as they couldn't live with his terrible on-base percentage. Part-time shortstop Taylor Walls was their other top defender, but he hit .183. That's the problem. Tampa Bay wasn't sacrificing good defense for more offense: Only the White Sox scored fewer runs than the Rays in 2024. It seems to be a tough hole to climb out from, as there doesn't appear to be a lot of offensive or defensive upside on the 40-man roster. They haven't done anything eye-opening yet this offseason except trade away Springs, so they're going to rely on young Junior Caminero and players such as Diaz and Josh Lowe to have better seasons.
Texas Rangers
The number: 198
The Rangers scored 198 fewer runs this past season than in 2023 as pretty much every hitter on the roster declined. They could have brought back everyone, but general manager Chris Young has probably done the right thing to shake things up. He traded for Jake Burger and traded away Nathaniel Lowe in what essentially is a swap of first basemen. He signed DH Joc Pederson and catcher Kyle Higashioka. There's a common theme with the three additions: power. Burger, Pederson and Higashioka combined for 69 home runs in 2024.
Will they help the offense that much? Burger had a .301 OBP and Higashioka a .263 OBP. Only Pederson, at .393, helps in that department -- and that's 51 points higher than his career mark, so he's likely to regress. That trio might help some, but the big improvements will need to come from 2023 stalwarts such as Adolis Garcia (.224/.284/.400 in 2024), Marcus Semien (.237/.308/.391) and Leody Taveras (.229/.289/.352) plus better health from Josh Jung and Evan Carter. All that seems plausible. The Rangers might not score 881 runs as they did in 2023, but they'll score more than 683.
Toronto Blue Jays
The number: 4.82 ERA
The Blue Jays plummeted to their first last-place finish in the AL East since 2014. A big reason: The bullpen had a 4.82 ERA (only the Rockies had a worse figure), the highest for a Toronto pen since 2004. Even more frustrating was that the bullpen had been excellent in 2023, but the Jays fell from third in the majors in win probability added to 28th.
Yes, bullpens are volatile, so some bounce back should be expected -- but there will be a lot of pressure on the pen because the offense, which ranked 23rd in the majors in runs, has only added second baseman Andres Gimenez (a tremendous defender, but he doesn't bring much at the plate). The Blue Jays brought back reliever Yimi Garcia -- who was traded to Seattle last July but ended the season on the injured list -- and traded for reliever Nick Sandlin, who had a 3.75 ERA for Cleveland the past two seasons but has also given up 24 home runs. There are still some good relievers on the free agent market and maybe they'll add an outfield bat (Teoscar Hernandez?), but right now, the Jays still appear closer to a last-place AL East team than a first-place one.