From a distance, the Los Angeles Dodgers appear to be entering the 2024 MLB playoffs as a potential juggernaut: the best record in baseball, the best run differential, the best offense of any remaining team and stars such as Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman.
Upon further inspection, though, there's a real weakness on the roster -- one that the team has tried to address all year and still hasn't solved: the starting rotation. L.A. switched up its pitching plans in the days leading up to the National League Division Series opener against the San Diego Padres, swapping ace Jack Flaherty and offseason addition Yoshinobu Yamamoto so that Yamamoto could pitch on ideal rest in Game 5 of the NLDS, if necessary (though he looked shaky in his postseason debut, allowing five runs in 3 innings). But the Dodgers' biggest questions go beyond the two pitchers who would open the series.
When the Dodgers hit the road for Game 3, the real fun will begin. Walker Buehler is the likely Game 3 starter, but no one is really sure what to expect from him -- in 16 starts since he returned from rehabbing a 2022 Tommy John surgery, he has a 5.38 ERA and minus-0.2 WAR this season. And after Buehler? Well, that's where it gets really wild.
If you haven't followed the Dodgers closely this year, you might be wondering whether that decision is so tough because of the pitchers we haven't mentioned yet. But the real problem is because of the list of Dodgers not available to pitch due to injury (deep breath): Ohtani, Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow, Dustin May, River Ryan, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Tony Gonsolin, Nick Frasso and (the aptly named) Kyle Hurt. That's two full big league rotations worth of injured starting pitchers.
On top of all of those injuries, last year's breakout rookie star, Bobby Miller (22 starts, 3.76 ERA, 2.8 WAR, 99.1 mph average fastball in 2023) was so bad this year (13 starts, 8.52 ERA, minus-0.9 WAR, 97.8 mph average fastball in 2024) that he was optioned to the minors last month. He didn't make the NLDS roster.
What can the dominant Dodgers expect to get out of their starters the rest of the way? Can they win a World Series with half of their postseason games started by question marks? Let's take a deeper look by breaking down some of the pitchers who could ultimately decide the Dodgers' postseason fate.
Which Flaherty will show up in Game 2?
Pitching for the St. Louis Cardinals back in 2019, Jack Flaherty was excellent -- 196⅓ IP, 2.75 ERA, 4.7 WAR -- even finishing fourth in NL Cy Young voting as a 23-year-old. Then, from 2020 through 2023, he was not very good (cumulative 299 IP, 4.42 ERA, 3.3 WAR), but he regained his form this season, leading to a deadline trade to the Dodgers.
What did he fix? A number of little things. His fastball effectiveness improved due to a shape change -- he added almost two inches of ride and run to his four-seam fastball, very comparable in shape to his 2019 heater. He's also throwing it in the strike zone a lot more (up from 54% to 60% this year), which helped lead to better outcomes; the pitch's in-zone swing-and-miss rate is 21.7% compared with 17.5% last season.
With fastball velocity and usage pretty consistent from 2023 to 2024, this effectiveness has also helped his two primary offspeed pitches -- his slider and curveball -- even though those have comparable shapes and velocities from last season. Their usage has gone up, though, because he dumped the cutter from his arsenal. Getting ahead (he's now above average at throwing first-pitch strikes, as well) with the fastball makes it easier to use those breaking pitches out of the zone to draw swings (i.e., a chase):
It's conventional wisdom that it all starts with the fastball, commanding it, and throwing first-pitch strikes -- and sometimes that becomes widespread for a reason.
While Flaherty has been much better this season than in 2023, there have still been some hiccups along the way -- he had a 6.43 ERA over 14 innings in his final three regular-season starts. The Dodgers can't afford for those to pop up from one of the surest things left in a depleted rotation.
What happened to Buehler?
Given Buehler's career history of success -- especially in the postseason -- it might surprise you that he is no sure thing for L.A. He was one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2021 and, coming off of Tommy John surgery that wiped out his 2023 season, his velocity is only down 0.2 mph, typical velocity regression for the first full season back from surgery and Buehler's age. Yet he is 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA and 1.55 WHIP this season. What has really changed?
First, a quick geometry lesson that I promise will make you a better baseball fan. When you look past surface stats and start diving into the advanced metrics behind a pitcher's production, the vertical angles at which pitchers and hitters attack are the building blocks to understanding the hitter/pitcher interaction.
A four-seam fastball has "lift" or "ride" basically because the seams are hitting the air more than with any other grip, so they're fighting the air, thus making the ball sink less. This can be measured to the tenth of an inch and is defined with a stat called induced vertical break or IVB. Twenty inches is a common target for pitchers throwing a four-seamer, with the best sustained pitches generally landing at 20 to 22 inches. This pitch works best at the top of the zone, so that extra lift relative to what the hitter is expecting causes whiffs and popups from swinging under it by an inch or two.
Because of the natural loft in a power hitter's swing, a pitcher throwing a four-seamer wants to make the pitch is as flat as possible: So a short pitcher throwing from a low arm slot, ideally getting way down the mound with a big extension to their delivery (thus throwing from a lower height on the mound), is the best answer. Think Craig Kimbrel or A.J. Minter. Ideally they also throw 100 mph and have good command and good secondary pitches, too, but it's hard to find that complete package.
A simple way to think about evaluating a pitcher's four-seam fastball is to look at their release height (the height, relative to the infield that the pitcher's hand is when the ball comes out of it) and the IVB (how much lift it has). If you assume the pitcher is already throwing the pitch at the top of the strike zone, those two variables relative to league average will tell you what advantage the pitcher is creating with their vertical angle to the plate, which is a shockingly big piece of the pie dictating how good they are, especially if you toss in velocity, too. Then you can consider their command, secondary pitches, sequencing, tunneling, and other factors that are much harder to quantify.
You can probably guess what's happened to Walker Buehler. He is a classic four-seam-oriented power pitcher whose heater can be graded effectively using this method. Here's what you need to know about his four-seam fastball, per Baseball Savant:
I included a grade from FanGraphs' Stuff+ model, which does the simple math I outlined above and converts it to a scouting grade, where 50 is league average, 60 is one standard deviation above average (i.e., very good), and 70 is two standard deviations above average (elite), etc.
While the IVB and release height difference are the same nominal amounts, a couple inches of IVB is the gap from good to mediocre (for release height, that's a nice improvement). His 68 stuff grade in 2020 was fifth among starters; his 50 grade in 2024 ranks 76th.
Buehler's season is mostly the result of what happens when you go from having an elite fastball to an average one. He has thrown the pitch less and been more tentative with the locations. He has deepened his arsenal to include a sinker, cutter, curve and change more -- now, making those pitch shapes, locations, sequences and tunnels work together is where his advantages will lie.
Of course, because of the long list of injured pitchers, Buehler is left to figure this out in a potentially pivotal NLDS spot (and possibly with a new team next season due to his pending free agency). Will he be able to work around his fastball issues with the new pitches enough to keep hitters guessing?
What will the Dodgers get from their No. 4 starter?
This spot in the rotation has been a revolving door for the Dodgers all season, and it looks like Landon Knack is the leading option here. Michael Grove is the multi-inning option in the NLDS bullpen, with Miller, Ben Casparius and Justin Wrobleski as the leading options for length who didn't make the roster.
So what can Dodgers fans expect from the pitcher who will either be tasked with pitching a key Game 4 in the NLDS (if the series goes that long), or at the least in the longer seven-game series that would come after it?
Knack has an average to a bit above four-seamer and slider combination, with a less effective but usable curveball and changeup. He's a good strike thrower, but because he doesn't have big stuff and works up in the zone with his fastball, he is flyball-prone and thus homer-prone.
For reference, he averages 93.5 mph with a 19.1 IVB and 69.5 inch release height. The quality of his fastball is close to the same as Buehler's -- the Stuff+ model actually prefers his fastball at a 52 to Buehler's 50 -- but Knack comes with less of a track record, particularly in the playoffs, and a less deep arsenal.
When he is at his best, he gets outs by letting his defense -- especially his outfielders -- do the work behind him. But if it goes poorly, especially against the types of lineups the Dodgers will see the rest of the way, the result could be Knack allowing home runs that put L.A. in a hole.
It's not like Kershaw (ouch) or Glasnow (5.72 ERA in 10 postseason starts) haven't had bad playoff starts before, but the Dodgers would certainly feel better with a healthy version of them -- or Ohtani, or the 2021 version of Buehler, or the 2023 version of Miller -- taking the mound in Game 3 or Game 4. In truth, they're still slight favorites to advance to the NLCS, even if our panel of experts didn't think so -- but it'll likely follow a similar blueprint to Saturday's win over the Padres, where they have to out-hit their shaky pitching.