2024 MLB playoffs: NLDS, ALDS' strengths and flaws

Now that the quick-hitting wild-card round has passed, it's time for the eight remaining World Series hopefuls to take the field in the 2024 MLB division series.

As we get deeper into the MLB playoffs, the series get longer, the pressure increases -- and each team's biggest strengths and weaknesses are highlighted even more.

With that in mind, we have identified eight key components of October baseball that will shape the rest of the postseason, and asked ESPN MLB experts Jeff Passan and David Schoenfield to find the teams that excel -- or have the most to worry about -- in every category. Here are eight areas that will make (or break) each team's World Series hopes.

Power

Just how important is the long ball in October? Well, teams that outhomer their opponent are now 156-30 in the playoffs since 2018.

Who stands out?

Passan: Aaron Judge and Juan Soto accounted for 99 of the New York Yankees' major league-leading 237 home runs, the best two-man combination by a dozen long balls. Next on the list is the Los Angeles Dodgers, who got 87 homers from Shohei Ohtani and Teoscar Hernandez and finished with the most extra-base hits this season. And don't sleep on the New York Mets. A ninth-inning homer from Francisco Lindor got them into the playoffs. A ninth-inning homer from Pete Alonso kept them in. Up and down the lineup for all three teams, there are bats capable of driving the ball out of the park -- and the ability to do so greatly benefits teams this time of year.

Who is in trouble?

Schoenfield: The Royals hit a few more home runs than the Tigers in the regular season, but there are two issues going on now with Kansas City. First, the Royals didn't hit at all in September (.204). They certainly didn't hit home runs (15, down from 41 in August). Over their past 13 games, including the two playoff wins over Baltimore in which they scored just three runs, they've hit .180 with three home runs while averaging 1.8 runs per game. Then there's the fact that Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez, their top two sluggers, both hit right-handed -- and Yankee Stadium is far less friendly to righty hitters than lefties.

Passan: The Tigers don't hit many homers, either. They're OK with bases-clearing triples instead.

The biggest power question mark: Who hits cleanup for the Yankees? Austin Wells has been the regular guy there since August, but he hit .111 with one home run in September. Let's see whether Giancarlo Stanton (27 home runs) or Jazz Chisholm Jr. (11 home runs in 46 games with the Yankees) moves up in the order.

Contact ability

Bashing home runs is nice, but it can't be the only thing your lineup does. Putting the ball in play consistently can make a team slump-proof -- and put more pressure on your opponent to make plays in the field.

Who stands out?

Passan: Let's hear it for the San Diego Padres, who added the best contact hitter of this generation (Luis Arraez) in May to a lineup that already featured players like Jurickson Profar and Xander Bogaerts, who pride themselves on bat control. The most pleasant surprise is rookie Jackson Merrill sporting a 12.6% strikeout rate in September. Just behind the Padres are the Dodgers, whose reputation as a contact-oriented team isn't nearly as strong as the Padres' but whose production on balls in play is a defining feature. Mookie Betts does it. Freddie Freeman does it. Even Ohtani is right around league average.

Schoenfield: Jeff is right about the Padres, but I'll throw out the Royals here since I just criticized their lack of power. They had the third-lowest strikeout rate in the regular season behind the Padres and Astros, so if they have any chance of upsetting the Yankees, it's by putting balls in play and forcing the Yankees defense to make some plays (and putting some pressure on the bases could help as well).

Who is in trouble?

Schoenfield: The Tigers have the worst strikeout rate of the remaining teams and Colt Keith was the only regular with a strikeout rate below 20%. The MLB average was 22.6% and Kerry Carpenter (25.3%), Parker Meadows (25.5%) and Riley Greene (26.7%) -- the Tigers' three best hitters down the stretch -- are all over 25%. Spencer Torkelson and Jake Rogers were even worse. And they'll be facing a lot of innings from a Guardians bullpen that had the third-highest strikeout rate in the majors at 26.0%.

The biggest contact question mark: Will Pete Alonso's dramatic home run to beat the Brewers get him going? He fanned 74 times in 54 games in August and September (32.4% of the time).

Top-of-the-order stars

October is a long month, and while you can hope for some role players to get hot, deep runs are often powered by the biggest names (see: Corey Seager and the 2023 World Series champion Texas Rangers).

Who stands out?

Schoenfield: Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper have both been terrific throughout their postseason careers, with Schwarber hitting .245/.375/.557 and Harper hitting .276/.383/.613. Over the past two postseasons with the Phillies, they've been even better, with both cracking 11 home runs in 30 games and Harper hitting .324. It will be interesting how they do against the Mets' trio of lefty starters in David Peterson, Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana. Schwarber just had his best season against southpaws, however, hitting .300 with 12 home runs -- and Harper hit .301 with a .907 OPS against lefties.

Passan: In terms of name brands, it's tough to beat the Dodgers' Big Three at the top: Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. And the Yankees' duo of Judge and Soto is the most productive pair in the major leagues since Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig. Luis Arraez and Fernando Tatis Jr. spearhead a deep lineup in San Diego. A sneaky team in the mix here: Kansas City. If Vinnie Pasquantino hadn't missed the final season of the month with a broken thumb, he would've joined No. 2 hitter Bobby Witt Jr. and cleanup hitter Salvador Perez with 100-plus RBIs.

Who is in trouble?

Passan: Far be it from anyone to suggest the Detroit Tigers' lack of recognizable names delivers them trouble. But if being a proven commodity has any bearing on October, the Tigers are going to run into difficulty sooner than later, because the closest thing they've got to a star is Riley Greene, and he is a 24-year-old with one All-Star appearance. Of course, the beauty of this is that if a team keeps winning, doing so helps turn those otherwise-anonymous players into stars.

Schoenfield: This is a little awkward since both Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez started the All-Star Game, but the Guardians had the second-lowest OPS from the top three spots in their lineup of all the playoff teams (the Braves were lower and they've been eliminated). Now, Kwan missed some time early on with an injury, but he still led off 121 games. He faded badly in the second half, however, hitting .206 with a .618 OPS. Ramirez, of course, is great and he hits third, so it points to a lack of a quality No. 2 hitter, and sure enough, the Guardians have used 10 different players there. They need Kwan to get on and to get something from their No. 2 hitter, whether it's Kyle Manzardo, Andres Gimenez or somebody else.

The biggest star question mark: Freddie Freeman's OPS dropped nearly 100 points in the second half, and he hit just .259 in September. Mookie Betts hit .304 before he fractured his hand with more walks than strikeouts, but .264 with more strikeouts than walks after his return in August. The Dodgers have gone 2-8 in their past 10 postseason games and Betts has hit .079 (3-for-38) with one RBI. He has to give them some production hitting behind Ohtani.

Baserunning

Quality baserunning is about more than just stealing bases. Teams that excel on the basepaths can win a series by taking extra bases and avoiding unnecessary outs.

Who stands out?

Passan: The Tigers are aggressive and intelligent on the basepaths, consistently taking extra bases but making proper decisions about when and when not to go. For a team as young as Detroit, it is an impressive quality to have -- particularly seeing the Tigers really don't have anyone with blazing speed. Their baseball instincts are keen, though, and having a third-base coach with the know-how and wherewithal of Joey Cora -- not to mention him actively challenging Detroit players to be more aggressive -- is paying dividends for an offense that would rather cobble together runs than slug its way to crooked numbers.

Schoenfield: The Dodgers actually have the highest team baserunning rating via FanGraphs' metric, but a large part of that was Shohei Ohtani's remarkable season stealing bases (59-for-63). But I'll go with the Royals, who have the fastest player in the game in Bobby Witt Jr., who also happens to be aggressive on the bases, sometimes to a fault (he made 10 outs on the bases). Maikel Garcia is both a great percentage base stealer (37-for-39) and aggressive running the bases. Kyle Isbel is also an excellent baserunner. Salvador Perez does clog things up in the middle of the lineup, however.

Who is in trouble?

Schoenfield: This one's easy. The Yankees were last in both FanGraphs' baserunning metric and last in the overall percentage of taking the extra base (such as first to third on a single or second to home). Despite being very station to station in running the bases, they were nonetheless middle of the pack in outs made on the bases (Juan Soto had the second-most outs on the bases in the majors with 11, trailing only Elly De La Cruz). And as we saw near the end of the season with that Soto/Gleyber Torres debacle, they're prone to the occasional bonehead play as well. The Yankees also led the majors in hitting into double plays.

Passan: Co-sign. Their cross-borough compatriots aren't a ton better. One-third of the Mets' hitters are really good on the bases -- Francisco Lindor, Starling Marte and Brandon Nimmo -- and Tyrone Taylor is a threat, too. The rest are somewhere between nonentities and complete cloggers.

The biggest baserunning question mark: Can a team thieve its way to the World Series like the Arizona Diamondbacks did last season? The Diamondbacks ripped five bags in the division series and nine in the NLCS before outstealing the Rangers 7-1 in their World Series loss.

Defense

Sure, strikeouts are a bigger part of the game than ever before, but you still have to be able to chase down balls in play to win in October.

Who stands out?

Schoenfield: I'm going with the Guardians, primarily because of their slick double-play combo of second baseman Andres Gimenez (the Platinum Glove winner in the AL last year) and shortstop Brayan Rocchio, who has impressed as a rookie. Their defense doesn't stop there: Kwan is maybe the best left fielder in the game, both catchers (Bo Naylor and Austin Hedges) are good framers and Ramirez is still a positive at third. The metrics back up the eye test: Gimenez ranks in the 100th percentile of Statcast's outs above average, Rocchio in the 89th percentile, Kwan and Ramirez in the 82nd percentile.

Passan: When you've got an offense like the Royals', you don't make it to the postseason without pitching and defense. And Kansas City's gloves -- from Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia comprising the best left side of the infield in MLB to Kyle Isbel patrolling center with uncommon smoothness to Salvador Perez turning into a solid framing catcher -- are almost all exceptional. It's hard to get this deep into the postseason if you're objectively bad at catching the ball. Also: The Yankees' catching duo of Austin Wells and Jose Trevino is exceptional at framing, and at a time of year when the smallest advantage matters, stealing a strike or two could make the difference between a win and a loss.

Who is in trouble?

Schoenfield: The Yankees are a bit of a mixed bag. Anthony Volpe is a Gold Glove candidate at shortstop, and all the metrics love Wells' work behind the plate. But Aaron Judge has below-average range in center, Gleyber Torres has below-average range at second, Soto is certainly a liability in right and Jazz Chisholm Jr. has only 45 games at third and has been slightly error prone. Overall, I don't view the Yankees as a bad defensive team, but I don't think their D is going to win any games for them.

The biggest fielding question mark: Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez threw out just 14 of 80 base stealers and led the league with 11 passed balls, and the Mets also led the majors in wild pitches. Let's see if the Phillies can take advantage (although speedster Trea Turner hasn't run as much after returning from a hamstring injury earlier in the season).

Top of the rotation

Starters might not go as deep as they used to, but a rotation flush with aces is still tough to beat in October.

Who stands out?

Passan: The Phillies' ownership of this category might be the biggest chasm in all eight. For all of Tarik Skubal's brilliance and Cole Ragans' stuff, Zack Wheeler is every bit as good as them -- and comes with 63⅓ innings of 2.42 ERA ball in the postseason. Aaron Nola is tried and true, Cristopher Sanchez is capable of shutting down good offenses for eight innings, and Ranger Suarez nearly started the All-Star Game this year and is Philadelphia's fourth starter. Kansas City is pretty good, too, with three starters (Ragans, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha) posting top-10 ERAs in the AL and lined up to start all five games on full rest.

Schoenfield: You don't want to overreact to one great game, but holy cow was Michael King impressive for the Padres in his wild-card start, becoming the first pitcher in postseason history with at least 12 strikeouts, no runs allowed and no walks. He gets incredible movement on his sweeper and mixes in a changeup that generates a 36% whiff rate. That outing wasn't a fluke: Including that start, King has a 2.11 ERA since May 27, a span of 21 starts. He has allowed no runs or one run in 10 of those games. Then you go with Dylan Cease, who starts Game 1 against the Dodgers. When he's on, he can be unhittable with the wipeout slider, and he had a 2.66 ERA in the second half.

Who is in trouble?

Passan: The Dodgers' top starter missed half the year with an injury, their second starter arrived at the trade deadline and the third is still searching for a past version of himself. If Los Angeles fulfills its promise as the top overall seed this postseason, it will be in part because its starting pitching exceeded admittedly low expectations. Perhaps it's worth including Detroit here considering the Tigers might throw bullpen games in every non-Skubal start as long as they're alive.

Schoenfield: We love that Cleveland bullpen, and maybe that will be enough, but who's the No. 2 starter behind Tanner Bibee? Probably Ben Lively, who did go 13-10 with a 3.81 ERA but served up 23 home runs and has a 18.7% strikeout rate that pales compared to other top-of-the-rotation starters.

The biggest rotation question mark: The Mets announced on the day before Game 1 of the NLDS that Kodai Senga will start Saturday against the Philadelphia Phillies. Senga was the Mets' best pitcher in 2023, but has only made one start in 2024 -- in July -- because of multiple injuries. When asked about his status, Senga said "I'm ready for whatever. If they say 10 pitches, I'm all-in for 10 pitches. If they say 200, I'm in for 200." -- But how much can he really give the Mets in his first start in more than two months?

Bullpen

Bullpen use is at an all-time high in MLB, and that only intensifies in the postseason. Winning in October isn't just about a lights-out closer, it's about relievers who can step up whenever they are needed.

Who stands out?

Passan: The Padres' Bullpen of Death might be their defining feature, which is saying something for a team this talented. For Mike Shildt to be able to turn to Bryan Hoeing, Jeremiah Estrada, Adrian Morejon, Jason Adam, Tanner Scott and Robert Suarez on any given night is straight-up unfair. The Phillies can go nasty for nasty with San Diego, putting a pair of All-Stars (Jeff Hoffman and Matt Strahm) in front of their closer (Carlos Estevez) and also mixing in Orion Kerkering, Jose Alvarado and Tanner Banks. The king of 'em all, though, could be Cleveland. Best full-season ERA in MLB: Cleveland at 2.57. Best September ERA: Cleveland at 1.31. Emmanuel Clase was the top reliever in MLB this year, Cade Smith wasn't far behind and the Guardians have three more relievers on top of Clase and Smith with sub-2.00 ERAs.

Schoenfield: Let's give some love to the Detroit bullpen. It hasn't been as good as some of the other pens over the entire season, but it might be the hottest right now -- and A.J. Hinch uses it extensively in every game Tarik Skubal doesn't start. It's a no-name pen for good reason: Sean Guenther, Brenan Hanifee and Tyler Holton were waiver claims; Jason Foley was undrafted out of Sacred Heart University; Beau Brieske was a 27th-round pick out of Division II Colorado State-Pueblo; Brant Hurter was a seventh-round pick. The Tigers have built a strong pen out of thin air.

Who is in trouble?

Passan: The Mets' bullpen, at this point, is just tired. Such is the consequence of two games Monday, one Tuesday, one Wednesday and one Thursday at a time of year when wear and tear becomes a real concern. Pete Alonso saved the Mets' season from ending -- and Jose Butto from the ignominy that would have accompanied allowing two late home runs in a win-or-go-home game. Manager Carlos Mendoza needs to be judicious in how he uses his relievers if he wants to ensure they're all ready should this run extend into late October.

Schoenfield: The Yankees' closer is apparently ... Luke Weaver. Who has four career saves, all in September. Now, to be fair, he had an outstanding season, holding batters to a .176 average and .583 OPS. This isn't the same pitcher who never broke out as a starter. OK, fine. That still leaves Aaron Boone needing high-leverage outs from disposed closer Clay Holmes, or Jake Cousins, or Caleb Ferguson, or Tommy Kahnle, or Michael Tonkin. The Yankees' pen did rank sixth in the majors in ERA, but it just feels unsettled at the moment.

The biggest bullpen question mark: Who sets up Edwin Diaz for the Mets? The last time we saw Phil Maton, the Brewers clubbed two home runs off him. When most teams are using reliever after reliever pumping upper-90s gas, the Mets' top setup guy doesn't even throw a four-seam fastball, and his rarely used sinker averages 88 mph. Ryne Stanek? He throws hard but not always over the plate. Jose Butto? The last time we saw him, the Brewers belted two home runs off him.

Intangibles

While we've focused on things you can measure so far, sometimes the postseason simply comes down to if this is -- or isn't -- your year. Which teams have the kind of vibe you can ride through October?

Who stands out?

Schoenfield: Gotta go with the Mets, right? Not just the magical ninth-inning home runs to beat the Braves and then the Brewers, but all the good karma: Grimace, Alonso's playoff pumpkin, the "fun" vibe that Carlos Mendoza keeps preaching. If momentum means anything, the Mets have it, but they've also been as good as any team since mid-June.

Passan: If you wanna talk vibes, the Gritty Tigs are a thing. At some point, San Diego is bound to fulfill the chant and beat L.A. when it actually matters. Bobby Witt Jr. keeps saying the Royals "didn't come this far just to come this far," and when you're dreaming bigger than Yankee Stadium, that's a lofty place.

Who is in trouble?

Schoenfield: All the pitching injuries to the starters on the Dodgers create a "been there" vibe that reminds everyone of last season, when the Dodgers entered the playoffs with a battered rotation. Is that a dark cloud? Not necessarily, but they're facing a hot Padres team, and no team is under more pressure to win it all than the Dodgers given all their postseason failures (yeah, they have 2020 to fall back on, but they absolutely want to win a title over a full season that won't come with a COVID asterisk).

Passan: This might not be trouble. It might, in fact, be motivation. With Juan Soto's free agency less than a month away, him potentially playing his final games as a Yankee will hang over everything New York does this fall. The perpetual sense of doom that has shrouded the Yankees for the past decade is as palpable as ever now. The American League is ripe to be won, but if the Yankees don't this year, it will feel like a particularly acute sort of gut punch.