MLB held its third annual draft lottery Tuesday at baseball's winter meetings in Dallas, and the Washington Nationals landed the top pick in the 2025 draft despite having only the fourth-best odds to get the first overall selection at 10.2%.
It's still super early in the draft process, but let's jump into a quick five-pick mock draft to see how things could play out in July now that we know who will be making the first picks. All the members of last year's lottery night top-five mock landed in the top seven picks in July, so it's fair to think we have a reasonable idea how the top of the draft could play out.
At this time last year, the 2024 MLB draft crop looked to be a down class, but things improved greatly during the spring with a solid group of quality prospects landing in my top 100 list after signing. The 2025 crop looks a good bit weaker than the 2024 crop did at the same stage (my No. 1 prospect is comparable to a former teammate that went 12th overall in the 2024 draft), but it's smart to leave room for the 2025 spring to prove that this will also be at least an average draft class.
Here's my early prediction of the first five picks in the 2025 MLB draft, after consulting with industry sources before and after the lottery.
1. Washington Nationals: Ethan Holliday, 3B, Stillwater HS (Oklahoma)
Yes, another Holliday. Opinions about Holliday vary in the industry, but everyone has him somewhere in the first round, with a majority of evaluators putting him in the top five picks.
At this same stage of development, his brother Jackson was seen as a shortstop with a solid bat and medium tools who belonged in the back half of the first round, but Jackson elevated in his draft spring, en route to becoming the No. 1 overall pick. Ethan is a corner fit in pro ball with a good shot to stick at third base and has real present power but some bat-to-ball questions despite a pretty swing. Given his long track record -- Ethan was a clear first-round talent two years ago that reminded me of a lefty Nick Castellanos -- and family history, there's an expectation of a step forward this spring for Ethan similar to Jackson's leap.
There was pre-lottery buzz that Ethan wouldn't get past Colorado (tied for the best odds for the top pick), in part due to his father Matt's legacy with the team. That's less relevant now as the Rockies ended up sliding to the fourth pick. In addition, the Nationals have a history of shooting for the moon with upside at the top pick (Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg), though no one in this class is the slam-dunk generational talent that those two were known to be a year ahead of time. Nats general manager Mike Rizzo followed that playbook even before that, drafting Justin Upton at the top pick in 2005 when he was the Diamondbacks' scouting director, another pretty easy call at the time. This pick is an open question right now, but Holliday fits Washington's tendencies best, if he continues to develop as many expect.
2. Los Angeles Angels: Jace LaViolette, RF, Texas A&M
LaViolette is my pick at this point for the best player in the draft. As a prospect, he's comparable to 2024 Aggies outfield counterpart Braden Montgomery (12th overall pick by the Red Sox) as both have easily plus raw power, real defensive value (though LaViolette probably settles in a corner outfield spot) and big production -- but with more of a power-over-contact profile. The 6-foot-6 LaViolette is reminiscent of another Texas college premium pick in Lance Berkman (1997 first-rounder out of Rice), which would be a rosy projection of LaViolette's bat-to-ball skills, but the frame, physical tools and overall profile are all similar. Since the Angels tend to prefer quick-moving college players, LaViolette and my next projected pick would be their two best options.
3. Seattle Mariners: Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
Arnold was a sneaky target for a signing bonus in the low-to-mid six figures for a number of teams in the 2022 draft out of a Tampa-area high school because of his polish and pitchability as a starter sitting mostly in the upper-80s. His velocity rose into the mid-90s in Tallahassee and he now has one of the best college fastballs in recent memory because his command is still solid and he's combined it with a uniquely low release due to his low arm slot that is perfect for generating whiffs at the top of the strike zone. Arnold has a nasty plus sweeper that breaks across the strike zone, but he needs to add a cutter or improve his changeup to give him a third weapon that's easier to land in the zone. He should move quickly through the minors, and the Mariners' recent history of pitching development fit his skills well.
4. Colorado Rockies: Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Bremner was yet another mid-six figure target out of high school in the 2022 draft and, like Arnold, his velocity rose in college as many scouts hoped it would. Bremner is a lanky yet agile 6-foot-2 hurler who pitches into the upper-90s at his best, mixing in a bullet slider and plus-plus changeup with screwball action. He requires more projection as he doesn't have the bulk of innings (99⅔ innings in two college regular seasons) or the high level of competition of some power conference pitchers.
The Rockies have opted for college arms with their high picks of late, since they often can't convince premium free agent pitchers to sign with them. Given the altitude of their park, they have leaned towards hurkers that don't rely on big-breaking curveballs and that have the athleticism for frontline starter upside, which Bremner possesses. Bremner's upside and frame are similar to 2023 ninth overall pick and top Rockies prospect Chase Dollander.
5. St. Louis Cardinals: Aiva Arquette, 2B, Oregon State
Arquette was also a six-figure target out of Hawaii in the 2022 MLB draft but ended up getting to campus at Washington and posting an OPS over .950 in his first two seasons. The 6-foot-4 infielder transferred to Oregon State last summer and is now a common pick to click this spring with his plus raw power and above-average bat-to-ball skills. The Cardinals drafted an offense-oriented infielder in last year's draft in J.J. Wetherholt and though Arquette has some similarities to him, Wetherholt is a superior prospect.