Tuesday evening at baseball's winter meetings in Nashville, MLB held its second annual draft lottery, and the Cleveland Guardians landed the top pick in the 2024 draft despite having the ninth-best odds to get the first overall selection (just a 2% chance of getting to pick No. 1 next summer).
It's still super early in the draft process, but let's jump into a quick five-pick mock draft to see how things could play out in July now that we know who will be making the early picks.
There isn't a clear No. 1 talent in this class and the high school crop looks a bit down from recent years. The good news is that the depth of the draft is the most desired player demographic: college position players.
1. Cleveland Guardians: JJ Wetherholt, 2B, West Virginia
Wetherholt, in my eyes and the eyes of some sources I checked with after the lottery, fits Cleveland's type of prospect the best of this top tier of talent. For better or worse, I can already confidently project that the Guardians will follow in the footsteps of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Baltimore Orioles by not deciding on who they'll take with the top pick until very late in the process, likely with price checks of the candidates in the final hours before finalizing their choice. RIP mock drafts, once again.
He went from little-known prospect to slam-dunk first rounder during the spring of 2023, hitting .449/.517/.787 with 42 extra base hits and 36 stolen bases while playing a solid second base for the Mountaineers. He might be able to play shortstop, but the sales pitch won't be dependent on that; second or third base will work fine. He's listed at 5-foot-10, 190 pounds, and his power is more good (15-20 homers) than great, but he knows how to get to it in games.
2. Cincinnati Reds: Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest
It would be an easy storyline that months after moving on from franchise icon Joey Votto at first base, that the Reds land his replacement in the draft. Kurtz has a simple sales pitch: He rakes.
He's a 6-foot-5, 235-pound left-handed masher who wasn't a real pro prospect out of high school, but has immediately performed in one of the best lineups in college baseball. He posted a .349/.525/.758 line with 22 homers and 62 walks in 55 games with scouts hanging just as lofty scouting grades -- 60s and 70s on the 20-80 scale -- on everything he does in the batter's box. He's a college first baseman (who can maybe play some corner outfield), so he has to hit, but he's one of the better bets in recent years in that regard.
3. Colorado Rockies: Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State
It gets a little trickier to match up players with a team's preferred type of prospect here as I think Bazzana is the last guy in the top tier of talent, so a natural pick for the Rockies to make in this spot. His position isn't clear yet, with scouts throwing out almost every position on the field as his potential landing spot -- but the selling point here is the bat. Bazzana is a plus runner who makes the most of his speed and has 20ish homer upside, so he's the guy from this top group who gets the gut feel pronouncements from scouts that "he can play" -- meaning they're confident he'll be what he's projected to be as a pro.
4. Oakland Athletics: Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida
Oakland has taken a big lefty with two-way talent out of Florida before, selecting A.J. Puk sixth overall in 2016. Puk wasn't a threat to hit as a pro and Caglianone may pitch in pro ball, but is seen by most scouts as a hitter first. Some teams have Caglianone ranked much lower than this, and some fans will think he should be first, but I think this reflects where teams have him now.
First the good: He's a big guy with true 80-grade power who also has above average bat-to-ball skills at the plate, not to mention a plus heater and good slider on the mound. The not as good: He has legitimately poor pitch selection at the moment, and his command comes and goes on the mound. For teams that want polished, safe types, he's a mid-to-late first rounder. For teams that have confidence in their player development and prioritize the best raw tools to work with, Caglianone will be very high on their board.
5. Chicago White Sox: Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest
While drafting a direct and immediate replacement for a big leaguer isn't good strategy in itself, the storyline of the next-in-waiting can be fair -- like in the case of Joey Votto and Kurtz and now for the White Sox, as you can see parallels between Burns and Dylan Cease and/or Lucas Giolito. I believe Chicago was one of the teams most interested in Burns as a high school prospect in the 2021 draft, but now he'll cost a lot more to sign.
Burns looks completely unhittable when he's on, and the buzz from his fall outings at Wake (after transferring from Tennessee) have some scouts predicting that he'll end up here early in the spring. Like most of the guys I have projected this high, Burns is a big, athletic kid with rare tools: a triple-digit hitter and a nasty breaking ball that give him two of the best pitches in the country. He was a seven-figure signing bonus type talent out of high school and has always posted strong strikeout rates in college, but his command and ability to turn over lineups have been the concerns. Wake Forest seems like a good spot to make that last improvement before going to pro ball.