Let the MLB hot stove season begin!
As players become free to sign with any team they choose (free agency officially begins at 5 p.m. ET on Monday), we asked our MLB reporters to open their notebooks with all of the intel they collected from execs, agents and other baseball insiders during the postseason.
What is the latest on Juan Soto's historic free agency? How will the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees approach the offseason after meeting in the World Series? Which other teams are generating the most buzz across the industry? And who could be traded this winter?
Here is what we're hearing as the hot stove ignites.
What is the latest buzz on Soto's free agency as the offseason officially begins?
Jorge Castillo: Re-signing Juan Soto will be far from a slam dunk for the Yankees. Soto said it himself after Game 5 of the World Series: He's going to listen to any and all offers. The Mets are viewed as the Yankees' stiffest challenge for Soto's services, but other teams loom. The Dodgers, Phillies and Blue Jays are expected to at least try. The Nationals would love a reunion. The Giants and Cubs could use a franchise cornerstone. Soto is keeping all doors open. He met every expectation -- and then some -- in the Bronx, but a return is no guarantee.
Jesse Rogers: Scott Boras will push the Yankees to the financial brink on this one. And there's a good chance that strategy will work considering New York finally found balance in its lineup with him. Here's the bottom line: They need each other. Soto's Hall of Fame track is aided greatly by the dimensions at Yankee Stadium combined with incredible lineup protection with Aaron Judge batting after him. On the team's side, New York is back to square one on offense if it lets him go. Soto will explore the market and give the Yankees a chance to match or exceed. They will. Before then, expect a half-dozen teams to poke and prod.
What else are you hearing is on the Yankees' offseason radar?
Buster Olney: The possible expenditure for Soto will have ripple effects on everything else that the Yankees do before and after Soto makes his decision. Given their massive obligations on the books to Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, the Yankees aren't really in position to be aggressive in addressing other needs until Soto makes his decision. If Soto signs elsewhere, the Yankees will pivot quickly -- and general manager Brian Cashman's history is that he largely focuses on pitching. But they would have to find a hitter to support Judge and Stanton, in the outfield or at first base, second or third.
A theory of one rival executive is that if Soto signs with the Mets, then agent Scott Boras -- who represents Soto and slugger Pete Alonso -- will work to convince the Yankees that they need Alonso to fill in the power gap. But for the Yankees, long-term investments in three right-handed sluggers on the downslope of their respective careers feel like an imbalance. If Soto departs, Willy Adames might be an interesting target, with the Yankees possibly shifting him to third or second, but agents expect that the bidding for Adames is going to be nutty this winter. Switch-hitter Anthony Santander, one of the few available sluggers who could swing from the left side, could take advantage of the Yankee Stadium dimensions in a big way.
What is the industry buzz about the Dodgers' offseason plans after winning the World Series?
Jeff Passan: The Dodgers can do pretty much anything they want, and that optionality makes for an offseason that will be more about opportunity and value than outspending everyone as they did last winter. They can target a shortstop and center fielder in free agency or via trade - and play Tommy Edman at the position they don't fill. They can go for an elite closer in free agency or via trade - and do just fine in either market because they've got oodles of money and a deep farm system. They need to figure out who from their World Series roster is coming back - Teoscar Hernandez, Jack Flaherty, Walker Buehler, Blake Treinen and Kike Hernández are all free agents - and balance that with their goal of surrounding stars with more stars. The path is not clear because there are a dozen the Dodgers can take. The market, as much as anything, will dictate which one they choose.
Alden Gonzalez: The Dodgers spent a lot of money this year, but they also made a lot of money this year. So much money. They knew the Shohei Ohtani deal would be good for business, strange as that might be to say for a contract guaranteeing $700 million. But they underestimated how much. The litany of Japanese sponsorship deals, the ceaseless stadium tours, the frenzy over bobbleheads -- it was all so much more than what the most astute members of their business department projected. Add to that a World Series title and all the extra revenue that comes with it, and you have a team that, despite splurging more than $1 billion last offseason, might keep doubling down. Don't look for the Dodgers to hand out big contracts for three- to four-win players; that's not their M.O. If they do venture into that realm, it'll be for stars. And while Juan Soto is probably a long shot, Blake Snell certainly is not.
What are you hearing about the other top free agents who played in the World Series -- Jack Flaherty, Teoscar Hernandez, Gleyber Torres?
Rogers: Despite an up-and-down postseason, scouts say Flaherty did himself some favors this year simply by taking the ball nearly every five days. Having success when he pitched didn't hurt either. In fact, he helped two teams to the playoffs. After compiling a 3.17 ERA for Detroit and Los Angeles, a longish-term deal should be in the offing. Meanwhile, Torres also helped himself during the postseason after a power outage during the regular season, but he finished the World Series just 1-for-16 in Games 2 through 5. Before that, he was hitting .310 in the playoffs. He also got caught up in the Yankees' lack-of-fundamentals storyline, so there are mixed reviews on the kind of deal he can garner in the open market. Executives do like a potential 20-homer hitter at second base but will need to believe that part of Torres' game will return.
Gonzalez: Teoscar Hernández wants to be a Dodger. But he also wants the long-term security he did not receive in his first foray into free agency last offseason. Given the season he had -- a .272/.339/.501 slash line, 33 homers and 99 RBIs while serving as a key cog for the team that won it all -- someone will give him the three- to four-year deal he covets this winter. Unless something changes in their thinking, it probably won't be the Dodgers. One team to watch here might be the Boston Red Sox. They were the most aggressive after him last offseason, presenting a two-year offer. Perhaps they kick in the extra year or two and get it done. Hernández wants a bigger deal, but he also wants to win. The Red Sox can fulfill both desires.
The Mets came within two wins of the World Series, and we know they'll be in on Juan Soto. What else could they do this winter?
Castillo: With over $180 million coming off the books, the Mets will be looking at the top of the market. Besides Soto, Corbin Burnes, the top free agent pitcher this winter, is an expected target. The 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner played for Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns in Milwaukee. Add that there will be openings in the Mets' rotation -- Sean Manaea (player option), Luis Severino and Jose Quintana are all hitting free agency -- and Burnes makes sense in Queens. Among New York's other possibilities: signing shortstop Willy Adames, who also played under Stearns with the Brewers, to play third base and moving Mark Vientos to first base.
Olney: The Mets might well land Soto, who is destined to become the highest-paid player in present-day value, obliterating Shohei Ohtani's $46.1 million average -- and yet the Mets' winter will mostly be about pitching because of both the holes created by departing free agents and the need for bullpen depth. All options are on the table: They could be in the running for a free agent like Corbin Burnes, but they also have the prospect depth to engage the White Sox for trade candidate Garrett Crochet. They could be involved in talks with the Brewers for Devin Williams, or with the Cardinals for Ryan Helsley. They could reinvest in left-hander Sean Manaea, whose midseason mechanical change has propelled him into the most coveted group of available starters.
The Mets had a breakthrough season in 2024, David Stearns' first year at the head of baseball operations, but they seem destined to be one of the winners of the upcoming winter because of the payroll flexibility they have, and because they demonstrated to Soto and other free agents that they are a lot closer to contending for a championship than anyone perceived back in May. Soto thrived in the dual superstar situation alongside Aaron Judge, but he would have a similar dynamic with the Mets, hitting behind Francisco Lindor. If the Mets land Soto, it seems very unlikely they will retain Pete Alonso, not only because their need for offense will be addressed but also because they will likely devote most of their available resources to the acquisition of pitching.
Which other teams do those in the industry feel are most likely to dominate the headlines this offseason?
Rogers: Detroit won't rest on its laurels after a surprising postseason run. The Tigers have money to spend and a good farm system to trade from if necessary. By the end of the season, their rotation consisted of Tarik Skubal and not a whole lot else. It shouldn't be hard to attract an arm or two considering Detroit's spacious ballpark. The Tigers were a bottom-third team in OPS, so in addition to allowing their young hitters to grow, there's room to add a bat as well. Detroit probably won't do anything too drastic, but arriving to the postseason a year early should push the front office, perhaps leading to a surprise signing that no one saw coming.
Olney: The Orioles will dominate headlines because their group of major leaguers is right in the middle of its window to win, and because it's the first winter since the change in the team's ownership. The expectations of the Baltimore fan base are high, and because of the Orioles' very low payroll, they've already been attached through speculation to everyone from Corbin Burnes to Juan Soto. But we still don't know how new owner David Rubenstein will lead.
Will he and the front office go all-in in signing Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman to long-term deals? Will Rubenstein give the green light to GM Mike Elias to grow the payroll significantly -- and will Elias use that flexibility on a star or use the dollars to augment the whole roster? Will Rubenstein push Elias to use his prospect capital to trade for someone like Garrett Crochet, in the way that Jim Crane stepped forward and pushed the Houston front office to land Justin Verlander in the summer of 2017?
Who are the biggest names you are hearing could be traded this offseason?
Olney: The assumption of many rival executives is that Garrett Crochet will be moved this winter, and relatively early, given that the White Sox and interested teams already did a lot of prep work on this at the trade deadline. White Sox GM Chris Getz made up his mind in July that he wouldn't move Crochet if he didn't get exactly what he wanted for the left-hander -- a decision that was privately criticized by some other front offices. But the gamble paid off: Crochet remained healthy, he continued to pitch and he demonstrated to the industry that he is capable of bearing a full workload, and now the price to sign him might be a little higher, with more bidders involved.
For the White Sox, a massive return built around a prime position player prospect is probably the best possible scenario, and you'd assume the usual suspects would be involved in conversations -- the Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies and Dodgers were interested in July and will be again this winter, with the Yankees and other contenders looking to add a left-hander who will be under team control for two more seasons. And given Crochet's stated desire for an extension, the acquiring team will probably sign him to a multiyear deal before the start of next season. The Mets are a team to watch.
Passan: Anyone in need of a closer need only look at the National League Central, where two of the best in baseball will be available. Executives say Milwaukee's Devin Williams and St. Louis' Ryan Helsley are both on the market, and they expect both to be moved at some point this winter. Each has one year of club control remaining and will be in his final season of arbitration, with Williams expected to command around $8 million and Helsley $7 million. And considering the level of production they provide -- Williams had a 1.25 ERA and struck out 38 in 21⅓ innings after returning from a back injury, and Helsley punched out 79 over 66⅓ innings with a 2.04 ERA and MLB-best 49 saves -- the asks will be understandably high. Teams in the market for a closer could include the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers and San Francisco Giants, though realistically any team would gladly add either Williams or Helsley to its bullpen.
How will the TV contract questions that hung over many teams this season impact the winter?
Gonzalez: Remember last offseason, when owners throughout the sport pointed to uncertainty over their regional sports networks as a reason to curb spending? Well, it's probably going to happen again. Things have only gotten worse over these past 12 months. Diamond Sports Group, navigating through the late stages of its prolonged foray into bankruptcy, recently submitted a reorganization plan that consists of keeping media rights for only the Atlanta Braves and no other team. Three of the former Diamond teams -- the Cleveland Guardians, Milwaukee Brewers and Minnesota Twins -- have joined Major League Baseball. Now, MLB has a lot of mechanisms in place for owners, all of them incredibly rich in the first place, to make up for that loss of revenue. Many would argue that RSN uncertainty is not enough of a reason to not spend on their teams and try to win. But agents are preparing for it, nonetheless.