2024-25 MLB free agency, trade grades: Offseason analysis

The 2024-25 MLB offseason is rolling along, and we have you covered with grades and analysis for every major signing and trade this winter.

Whether it's a nine-figure free agent deal that changes the course of your team's future or a blockbuster trade that rocks baseball, we'll weigh in with what it all means, for next season and beyond.

Follow along as ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield evaluate each move. This story will continue to be updated, so check back in for the freshest analysis from the beginning of the hot stove season through the start of spring training.

Related links: Tracker | Top 50 free agents (ESPN+) | Fantasy spin

Jump to biggest deals:
Alonso to Mets | Sasaki to LAD
Burnes to ARI | Bellinger to NYY | Tucker to CHC
Williams to NYY | Crochet to BOS | Fried to NYY
Soto to NYM | Adames to SF | Snell to LAD

Red Sox land Bregman, winter's last major free agent

The deal: Three years, $120 million (player opt-out after 2025 and 2026)

Grade: B+

The last needle-moving free agent of the 2024-25 hot stove season is off the board, with Alex Bregman agreeing to a very different contract than we would have figured when last season ended. Back then, ESPN's Kiley McDaniel projected a six-year, $187 million deal for one of the game's premier infielders. Instead, Bregman ended up with a $40 million average annual value on a pact for half of that duration. He can hit the market again after each of the next two seasons if he chooses.

After The Athletic broke the news of Bregman's signing, reports started circulating that he had offers that were in McDaniel's projected range -- six years, $170 million from the Tigers -- but chose the shorter deal and higher salary (some of the money is deferred). That makes this deal a minor gamble, but it also means Bregman, after lingering so long on the market, will be highly motivated. If Bregman were to opt out, he would hit free agency again without being saddled by the qualifying offer that might have hampered him the past few months.

This is a terrific marriage of team, player, ballpark and fan base. Bregman, who has some familial ties to Boston Red Sox legend Ted Williams, will give the Red Sox a much-needed right-handed bat, coveted defensive versatility and an alpha presence in the clubhouse -- one his new manager, Alex Cora, remembers quite well from his days as a coach in Houston.

While playing in Houston bolstered Bregman's homer total after he learned to exploit the short porch in left field, his offensive dossier has always traveled well. His career splits away from Houston (.274/.362/.488) are a dead ringer for his home splits (.270/.369/.477). That's mostly held true in recent years though he has increasingly relied more on the Crawford Boxes in the home run category.

According to Statcast, Bregman's career homer total of 210 would be 239 had he played all of his games in Houston. If he had been at Fenway all that time, he would be at 169. That suggests he might end up clubbing some balls off the Green Monster that would end up in the seats in Houston, but that just makes him a threat to revert to the doubles machine he was earlier in his career. Or maybe he'll just tick up the launch angle to compensate. Either way, Fenway is a good fit for Bregman's swing.

The bigger concern for Bregman than venue is age-related decline. While his numbers wound up in respectable place in 2024 (118 OPS+), some of the under-the-hood indicators were problematic. After two seasons in which Bregman walked more than he struck out, last season that inverted, and his walk rate fell from 13% to seven. That said, Statcast's bat speed metrics didn't indicate a decline from 2023, and his swing length was stable, which might not have been the case had he been compensating for something. Also, his average exit was up, so it's hard to say what was going on. He had a big second half in the slugging categories but that walk/strikeout flip held steady even while that was mashing. For now, we can call it a down season, though it does seem odd that such a disciplined hitter would go into a walk slump.

The Red Sox can slot Bregman's righty bat into the top of their order, after Jarren Duran and before Rafael Devers and Triston Casas, all lefty swingers. That part is easy. The BoSox' defensive plans are a little fuzzier. Jeff Passan reported that Bregman is expected to play second, but he's better at third. Devers is probably better at first -- but then where does Casas go? Sure, there's DH, but that will likely be the spot for Masataka Yoshida, who is a poor outfield defender when healthy and coming off shoulder surgery. Yoshida probably needs to stay away from his glove as much as possible.

More complications: The Red Sox have some exciting infield prospects in camp in Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer. They have Vaughn Grissom still around with a lot to prove and, reportedly, 20 pounds of new muscle. After so much emphasis on rebuilding in recent years, you don't want to block the players of that efforts.

These are good problems to have! The Red Sox look like a much more complete team than they were yesterday. With a pretty clean long-term payroll outlook, Bregman's presence won't hinder them that much down the line even if he does go into steep decline, which is unlikely. Boston's preseason standing in the AL East improves, though it remains in a jumble of above-average, non-elite teams throughout the American League.

As much as anything, splurging on Bregman signals to the impatient Boston fan base that the Sox are serious about getting back to October. And if the Red Sox are up for the challenge, Bregman will get quite a few more chances to annoy Yankee fans, which he did with aplomb while in Houston. That's got to be worth something, right? -- Bradford Doolittle

Padres get top remaining starter in Pivetta

The deal: Four years, $55 million (player opt-out after 2026 and 2027)

Grade: B-

For Nick Pivetta, the risk in turning down a $21.05 million qualifying offer finally paid off with a much larger guarantee with the San Diego Padres: a multiyear deal based on solid league-average performance -- or slightly better -- with the Red Sox over the past four seasons.

Before assessing Pivetta, the structure of the contract is important to note: He'll receive a $3 million signing bonus and $1 million salary for 2025, with salaries of $19 million, $14 million and $18 million the next three seasons, with the ability to opt out after the second and third years of the deal. The structure is important to the Padres as it limits their immediate cash flow in 2025 with a payroll that already sits an estimated $38 million higher than last year, according to Roster Resource.

It's also possible the signing increases the possibility of the team trading either Dylan Cease or Michael King, who are both headed to free agency after the season and have been mentioned in trade rumors (King has a mutual option that he will likely decline). With Pivetta, the Padres could still run out a rotation of Cease or King, Yu Darvish, Pivetta, Matt Waldron and Randy Vasquez, and any trade no doubt will bring back a young major-league ready starter to provide additional depth. Of course, the low salary for Pivetta could allow the Padres to keep everybody and make another run at the Dodgers.

As for Pivetta, he's tantalized scouts and executives for years with his deep arsenal of swing-and-miss stuff. He's averaged 10.2 K's per nine over the past four seasons while improving his walk rate each year, all the way down to a 6.1% rate in 2024. While he's also averaged 2.3 WAR since 2021, he's never quite put it all together, with an ERA over 4.00 all four seasons, with a high home run rate remaining his biggest negative (he allowed 28 in 145.2 innings in 2024).

Escaping Fenway (and the AL East) should help: He has 4.66 ERA with a .763 OPS allowed at Fenway the past four seasons, compared to 4.02 and .685 on the road. He did miss a month early last season with a flexor strain in his elbow.

In the end, the Padres will potentially get Pivetta for four years at $13.75 per season. Given the going rate for one-year deals for veteran starters like Alex Cobb, Charlie Morton, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer was one year and $15 million, Pivetta comes under that -- plus he's younger, arguably the best bet for 2025 out of that group and probably a better health risk despite the IL stint (indeed, Cobb is already injured). The best-case scenario for the Padres might actually be for Pivetta to have two solid seasons and then opt out after 2026. I wouldn't expect Pivetta to suddenly break out with an All-Star season or anything, but he projects as a solid No. 4 starter if they keep Cease and King. -- David Schoenfield

Dodgers bring Kershaw back for 18th season

The deal: One year (pending physical)
Grade: A

Yes, of course Clayton Kershaw should remain with the Dodgers and spend his entire career in Los Angeles. That's why I'm giving this an "A" grade, even with the obvious uncertainty of Kershaw's health, when he'll return to the mound and what he'll be able to deliver to the Los Angeles Dodgers when he does. In a sense, he's merely yet another insurance policy to a deep, impressive arsenal of starting pitchers and one of the most talented rosters ever assembled.

(Which is nothing new for Kershaw: His teammates in his first season with the Dodgers in 2008 featured a who's who of 2000s-era baseball: Manny Ramirez, Jeff Kent, Andruw Jones, Nomar Garciaparra, Rafael Furcal, Derek Lowe and even Greg Maddux, who made the final seven starts of his career in a Dodgers uniform. Throw in Russell Martin, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre, Casey Blake, Chan Ho Park, Hiroki Kuroda, Brad Penny, Esteban Loaiza and Chad Billingsley (who led the team in WAR), plus Kershaw, and the lifetime WAR for those 17 players comes in at 715. It had to be one of the most star-studded rosters ever assembled. The Dodgers finished 84-78, which was good enough to win the NL West, and lost to the Phillies in the NLCS.)

In his 17th season, Kershaw had the first ineffective season of his career, making just seven starts in July and August after returning from shoulder surgery and posting a 4.50 ERA. He missed the postseason with an injured toe and ruptured plantar plate in his left foot; he had surgery soon after the World Series parade on the foot and to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee.

Though Kershaw has missed time every season since 2016 -- even in the shortened 2020 season, he didn't make his first start until the Dodgers' 10th game -- his ailments had only seen him miss a few weeks or a couple months here; he had always managed to make at least 20 starts each season (excluding 2020). Until 2024. That track record, on top of the fact that he turns 37 in March, means even expecting the Kershaw of 2022-23 -- he went 25-8 with a 2.37 ERA over those two seasons -- probably isn't realistic.

But I wouldn't bet against him, either. Even as his velocity has declined through the years, he remained effective, so the fact that his four-seamer averaged just 89.9 mph last season isn't necessarily a reason to write him off (although in that limited 30-inning sample, batters did hit .429 off against his fastball). It's possible Kershaw will continue to adjust: He threw a few splitters last season (21 of them) and even a couple pitches classified as sinkers. As his fastball continues to generate fewer whiffs, he might have to try more of these new offerings to go along with slider and curveball.

Given the fragility of the rotation and the Dodgers' desire to limit their innings -- and keep some of this group healthy for October -- we'll no doubt see Kershaw at some point this summer. And making this L.A. stalwart a Dodger for life is a good thing. -- David Schoenfield

Angels ink closer Jansen

The deal: One year, $10 million
Grade: B

This isn't an earth-shattering signing for the Los Angeles Angels by any stretch, but there is a lot to like about it from a roster and an aesthetic standpoint. That holds true for the Angels and Kenley Jansen alike.

For the Angels, this is a low-risk, short-term signing that gives them an above-average back-of-the-bullpen anchor with minimal impact on their payroll outlook. Jansen has long defied the kind of year-to-year uncertainty that goes hand in hand with his gig, though the level of his consistency is on a different plane than it was during his heyday with the crosstown Los Angeles Dodgers.

Jansen built the foundation of a Hall of Fame résumé during the first eight years of his career, posting a 2.08 aggregate ERA supported by a 1.84 FIP, all while posting three seasons of 40 or more saves. In the seven seasons since then, Jansen has a 3.17 ERA and 3.39 FIP, good enough to average 31 saves and raise his career total to 447. He's dependable enough that Ben Joyce can be slotted into a high-leverage setup role where he can focus on his project of trying to break the sound barrier with his fastball.

That saves total for Jansen slots him fourth on the career list and, now that he has landed another full-time ninth-inning role, he has a shot at moving up one more rung, passing Lee Smith (478), which would leave only Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman above him. The Smith connection is apt: Because of his size and misleadingly languid body language, Jansen, at times, reminds me so much of Smith that the nostalgia almost hurts. And a good sign for Jansen is that Smith ended up in Cooperstown.

For the Halos, the signing is an appropriate one for an offseason that has seen GM Perry Minasian load up on mostly aging, recognizable veterans to deepen last year's paper-thin roster. The list of additions (in rough chronological order) includes Kyle Hendricks, Travis d'Arnaud, Kevin Newman, Yusei Kikuchi, Carter Kieboom, Dakota Hudson, Connor Brogdon, Victor Gonzalez, J.D. Davis, Tim Anderson, Yolmer Sánchez, Yoan Moncada and Jansen.

What does it add up to? Well, after I added Jansen to the Angels' depth chart, they moved into a virtual tie for fourth place in the American League West with the Sac-town Athletics in my baseline forecasts. That doesn't seem too terribly exciting, to be sure, but in an AL with relatively little 1-to-14 separation (the Chicago White Sox remain on their own tier), the closer you get to the middle, the more likely the words "so you're saying there's a chance" hold actual validity.

Best of all: If Jansen wants the Angels to queue up "California Love" as his walk-in song, as during his salad days, it will once again be appropriate. -- Doolittle

Mets keep their first baseman with Alonso signing

The deal: Two years, $54 million contract ($30 million for 2025 with an opt-out after the first season)
Grade: B+

In the end, the Mets did what seemed to make the most sense as far back as spring training before last season, which was keeping Pete Alonso to play first base. The outcome is not surprising, but the journey from there to here featured a lot more meandering than you would have figured.

For now, let's leave that narrative to the side and focus on the present: Alonso was the best remaining free agent given New York's needs, one who fills crucial slots for the Mets in positional fit and lineup utility. That he also happens to be a popular franchise icon is a pretty nice side benefit.

The terms of the deal are telling about the free agent prospects of mono position sluggers whose power bats carry the bulk of their value. But it also says something about the first-base position in general, which teams are more than ever willing to treat as a rotating spot in the way that they treat DHs, rather than latching onto one, everyday guy.

Last season, just 10 teams had a player make at least 130 starts at first base. At the MLB level, first basemen had a .736 OPS -- second to designated hitters among all positions -- but just behind were right fielders (.734) and, stunningly, shortstops (.728). Thirty years ago, just to pick a year at random, first sackers led all positions with an .851 OPS with right fielders coming in a distant second (.826). The way in which the first-base position is treated and viewed has evolved.

This worked against Alonso in the marketplace as did the qualifying offer the Mets slapped him with, which doesn't matter for them now but limited his appeal elsewhere all winter. The structure of the deal, which reads as something akin to a pillow contract, seems to presuppose that if Alonso has a big season, he can test the market again next year in hopes of longer-term security. Alas, Alonso, who turned 30 on Dec. 7, will be one year older and the dynamics around players of his ilk will be unchanged. At least he won't be saddled with a qualifying offer again.

That's a bummer for Alonso financially but for the time being, we can focus on the happy part of it, which is that he sticks with the Mets, the only franchise he's played for, and will be a key component of a team that is poised to make a push for a World Series berth.

Alonso isn't a perfect player. He strikes out too much and this leads to suboptimal batting averages which aren't buoyed by particularly strong walk rates. His game is all about power, and few players in recent years have wielded the tool with more authority. Six years into his career, Alonso averages 43 homers per 162 games and his .266 isolated power percentage is among the 20 highest in baseball history (minimum 3,000 plate appearances).

As it stands, with Alonso back in the fold, the Mets look similar to the second-half version of last year's team at most spots. That group did really well -- landing a playoff slot and advancing to the NLCS.

Sure, there are differences, with Jose Siri now occupying Harrison Bader's outfield role and Frankie Montas serving as this year's Luis Severino in the rotation. But the one key difference, obviously, is that this time Juan Soto is on board. Say what you will about lineup order and protection, but when you think back to the way Aaron Judge flourished last year hitting behind Soto, Mets fans can dream of a scaled-down version of that with Alonso enjoying that luxury.

It's scaled down only because Alonso is no Judge, but he could still produce huge power numbers hitting with Soto constantly on base in front of him. Every Mets opponent now has to traverse a sequence of Francisco Lindor, Soto and Alonso four or five times a game and that is a tall order.

For what it's worth, retaining Alonso and bumping Mark Vientos back to third base bumps the Mets up by about 0.9 wins in my forecast. That's enough to jump ahead of the Phillies, with the Mets winning an average of 91.3 games in the sims to Philly's 90.5. The Braves (94.3) still remain the favorite in the NL East.

In the end, the contractual outcome is probably a letdown for Alonso and his representation, and it's a validation of the Mets' pragmatic approach with him. The outcome feels like something that should not have taken this long. But it finally happened, and Mets fans can rejoice.

The countdown to spring training in Port St. Lucie can be measured in days, not weeks or months. The denizens of Citi Field have to be amped up to get things started, especially now. -- Doolittle

Tigers bolster rotation, bring back Flaherty

The deal: Two years, $35 million (includes $10 million incentive for 2026 plus player opt-out)
Grade: B-

This signing -- which still requires him to pass a physical -- comes down to the two versions of Jack Flaherty we've seen in recent years. If Flaherty pitches in 2025 like he did while with the Detroit Tigers over the first four months of 2024, when he posted a 2.95 ERA with superb peripheral numbers (133 strikeouts and 19 walks in 106 innings), it will be a huge boost to a starting rotation that needed more depth. Of course, if he pitches well, he will opt out and reenter free agency -- although the Tigers will at least be happy with the $25 million they will have spent in 2025.

On the other hand, there is the rest of Flaherty's recent track record: The injuries and mediocre performance from 2020 to 2023, plus a downturn in his results after the Tigers traded him to the Los Angeles Dodgers last season (3.58 ERA, with spikes in his walk rate, home run rate and hit rate, plus a drop in his strikeout rate). Flaherty needs to make 15 starts to unlock that additional $10 million for 2026, so if he doesn't pitch as well, the Tigers could be on the hook for $45 million over two years for mediocre performance.

That underlying risk is why Flaherty didn't get anything close to the original projections for his contract: ESPN's Kiley McDaniel had him ranked as the No. 9 free agent and predicted a five-year, $115 million contract; MLB Trade Rumors predicted the same five-year, $115 million deal. While Flaherty potentially comes right in at that $23 million annual value, it's for a much shorter term. The injury factor is certainly fair: Remember, the Yankees pulled out of a potential trade at the deadline with concerns about his medical reports. Flaherty received two injections to treat a lower back injury last season, missing 10 days in early June and 13 in early July to treat the issue.

Still, Flaherty had his best season since that stunning breakout in 2019, when he had a 0.93 ERA over his final 16 starts with the Cardinals and finished fourth in the Cy Young voting. The key seems to have been better health leading to better command of his four-seamer. In 2022, batters hit .324 off his fastball; in 2023, they hit .288. This past season, they hit .245. He also regained the feel for his slider as batters hit .222 against it compared to .339 in 2023 (his whiff rate on it improved from 27% to 36%).

All of those numbers declined after joining the Dodgers, but the Tigers saw Flaherty at his best, and that's the version they hope to get in 2025. In general, I'm not necessarily optimistic we'll see that Flaherty -- after all, that's four great months out of the past five seasons. You have to consider that larger body of work. But I do like potential upside here and, worst-case scenario, it's just a two-year deal for a team that had plenty of payroll space.

Flaherty is now added to an offseason group of signings that also includes Alex Cobb, Gleyber Torres and reliever Tommy Kahnle. The best way to put it: The Tigers played it safe, with those other three deals all for one season, plus Cobb and Kahnle have had their own issues staying healthy. The Tigers do remain in great position for the future, not only with top prospect Jackson Jobe ready for the rotation this season, but infielder Kevin McGonigle and outfielder Max Clark not far behind. I wonder whether they have their eyes on a bigger free agent next offseason -- somebody like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Kyle Tucker to add that much-needed impact bat. In the meantime, they've added some depth around the edges, and that could still be enough to win the AL Central in 2025. -- Schoenfield

Blue Jays land three-time Cy Young winner Scherzer

The deal: One year, $15.5 million
Grade: C+

As far as backup plans go, signing a 40-year-old future Hall of Famer who might still have something left isn't the worst idea, but let's be honest here: Scherzer was most definitely not Plan A for the Toronto Blue Jays. They were the runner-up for Roki Sasaki. Before that, the Jays had reportedly discussed a franchise-record contract with Corbin Burnes only to see him sign with the Diamondbacks. They were linked to Max Fried before he signed with the Yankees and Juan Soto before he signed with the Mets. Heck, they might still be in on Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman, the two top remaining free agents -- and they have made other significant moves, signing free agents Anthony Santander and Jeff Hoffman and trading for defensive wizard Andres Gimenez to play second base.

In other words, Scherzer is meant to be a complementary addition to the roster, not the centerpiece of a team trying to return to the playoffs after plummeting to a 74-88 record in 2024. The contract reflects that: It's the standard $15 million, one-year deal that Justin Verlander, Charlie Morton and Alex Cobb all signed -- with an extra $500,000 thrown in. Call that a Canadian tax.

Can Scherzer help? He's clearly on the downside of his career, with his last dominant season coming with the Mets in 2022, and his yearly WAR figures since 2021 have dropped from 6.1 to 5.2 to 3.2 to 0.4 with the Rangers in 2024. He made just nine starts after spending the first three months of the season recovering from offseason surgery to repair a herniated disk in his back and then later missing time with fatigue and nerve issues and a hamstring strain. He finished 2-4 with a 3.95 ERA and 22.6% strikeout rate -- the first time he had been under 27% since 2011.

You never want to bet against somebody as competitive as Scherzer, but age and injuries are usually a double whammy. Still, he's just one season removed from being a solid No. 3 starter, and if he can avoid those health issues, then maybe the stuff bounces back some. Certainly, it's a reasonable gamble for the Blue Jays to help a rotation that currently features Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Bowden Francis, Yariel Rodriguez and Jake Bloss.

That's a group that probably did need a reinforcement -- indeed, given that Berrios led the staff with 2.2 WAR, it needed an ace along the lines of Burnes or Fried. While the Jays were middle of the pack in the majors (14th) with a 3.95 rotation ERA, Rogers Centre has played as a pitcher's park in recent seasons, so Baseball-Reference ranked the Jays' starters a lowly 26th in the majors (FanGraphs ranked the rotation 17th). Either way, the Blue Jays needed help. If Scherzer delivers 130 innings and a 4.00 ERA, the Jays will probably feel fortunate, but that won't be much of an upgrade over last season (Scherzer would essentially be filling the Yusei Kikuchi slot in the rotation).

All this points to the big picture: Have the Jays done enough to win again ... and convince Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to sign a long-term extension to remain in Toronto? They could still use more bullpen help and, sure, signing Alonso would create a nice power trio with Guerrero and Santander -- three guys who combined for 108 home runs in 2024. Of course, they're in a tough division, and given the club's difficulty in landing a star player, it still feels like a disappointing offseason. Look, the Jays will probably improve merely by positive regression, and at least they've tried to improve their roster and make a run in what could be the final season for Guerrero and Bo Bichette in Toronto. We'll see if it will be enough. -- Schoenfield

Royals deepen bullpen with righty Estevez

The deal: Two years, $22 million (with a club option)
Grade: B-

The Kansas City Royals jump-started the free agent market way back in early November when they reupped with starter Michael Wacha on a three-year deal. They did not resurface with another free agent on a multiyear contract until they agreed to terms with Carlos Estevez, nearly three months later. Just as the Royals read last year's market just right, getting aggressive early and often, perhaps they have been rewarded for patience this time around.

There's still work to do, especially in terms of adding some kind of impact outfield bat to the middle of the order, but Kansas City has deepened a bullpen that was a sore spot for most of last season, at least before it coalesced late.

Estevez is a solid professional with ninth-inning experience, a track record of high-level velocity and average-to-better command. He's not a true ninth-inning hammer, and I thought a team might overpay him in the wake of Tanner Scott signing with the Dodgers on a four-year, $72 million deal just because Estevez had a 30-save season. But I don't think that's what happened here.

The contract is fine, and the Royals didn't necessarily need a "saves" guy. Estevez isn't going to be Kansas City's top late-inning reliever. That title goes to late-developing and currently vicious righty Lucas Erceg. But Royals manager Matt Quatraro, whom they hired away from the Tampa Bay Rays, has shown a penchant for lining up his best relievers in the right situations. The more quality options he has to do that, the better.

Who is going to get the saves? That's for the fantasy guys to sort out, but I suspect it'll depend on the day, the flow of the game and the segment of lineup the Royals face in the ninth inning. But now, when things are tight and the leverage index maxes out in the seventh or eighth, Quatraro can hail Erceg and not worry about having the ninth covered. Estevez is no Mariano Rivera, but you don't mind him finishing off a win. It just gives you better situational flexibility.

In addition to Erceg and Estevez, the Royals' top bullpen tier also includes righties John Schreiber and Hunter Harvey. Angel Zerpa came on late last season and figures in -- but let's focus on the righties. The first thing I always look at when a team adds reliever on an expensive contract is whether they actually needed him. The Royals needed another arm, and Estevez is solidly projectable from a track-record standpoint. Better yet, he isn't overly redundant to the other righties. He, Erceg and Harvey all come at it from the same arm slot, while Schreiber is the quirky side-winder, but the foursome features a variety of arsenals that should complement one another well.

The Royals project to contend again this year, and every addition they make between now and spring training inches them toward the Minnesota Twins atop my American League Central forecast, though there isn't much separation between those two and the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers. That makes every win that much more valuable, which some teams (such as the Pittsburgh Pirates and Seattle Mariners) don't seem to grasp -- or, if they do, they sure haven't acted like it this winter.

If Kansas City does navigate its way back to the playoffs, you can envision a playoff bullpen with the four righties and Zerpa joined by starters Kris Bubic and Michael Lorenzen on a very October-friendly depth chart. We probably shouldn't think about such specific scenarios during the last week of January, but what else do we have to do?

It's a solid get for Kansas City. But for the sake of the good people of a city starved for some kind of sports-related success (funny, right?), let's hope it's the forerunner of at least one more significant addition for the Royals. -- Doolittle

Rays upgrade at shortstop with Kim signing

The deal: Two years, $29 million (opt-out after the first season)
Grade: B

In a world where the Tampa Bay Rays land Ha-Seong Kim to play shortstop free of any kind of injury-related concern, this signing is probably at least an A-minus. Thus, it might actually be an A-minus because if, at this late juncture of the offseason, Tampa Bay had any major concerns over whether Kim would be sufficiently recovered from his shoulder surgery, they wouldn't have signed him. And they especially wouldn't have signed him to a deal structured like this.

A healthy Kim, at this salary level, slots into the middle tier of shortstops. He's not near the $25 million-plus range of the Francisco Lindors and Bobby Witt Jrs. of the world, which might work to the Rays' favor anyway given their usual payroll parameters. Kim perhaps is taking a bit of a discount, since he isn't expected to be ready to begin his 2025 season until late May. However, he comes out well with this deal -- in which he will make $13 million plus a possible $2 million in incentives the first year -- and retains a chance to reenter the market in a better position a year from now if he has a big season.

Once Kim returns to action, he provides an immediate upgrade to Taylor Walls and Jose Caballero, who topped the Rays' shortstop depth chart until this signing. Kim is a true difference-maker: He's projected to log 2.6 fWAR according to Steamer, even though his playing time forecast was downgraded to 123 games. The combined forecasts of Walls and Caballero is 1.8 fWAR for 148 games. Plus, shoulder aside, I'd argue that Kim's forecast carries a higher degree of certainty.

Carson Williams, Kiley McDaniel's No. 5 overall prospect, remains the Rays' future at the position. The addition of Kim buys them time for Williams to finish off his development. But Kim is no mere stopgap -- he's a first-division player whose Gold Glove-level defense fits right into the Rays' run-prevention-first ethos. Even if Williams pushes his way to the majors earlier than expected and/or Kim decides not to opt out after the season, Kim has the versatility to shift to another infield position or to serve as an alluring trade possibility when the time comes.

Kim has a high floor -- again, assuming his shoulder is good to go -- because of his widely balanced skill set. He's a terrific up-the-middle defender, is a certainty to steal 20-30 bags and has good plate discipline and bat-on-ball skills. He also has posted league-average isolated power figures, solid for his position. However, Kim doesn't post elite exit velocities so his power bat might be more impacted by venue than most, and some of his value might be determined by how the Rays' temporary stadium in Tampa plays.

Still, this is a nice get for the Rays, who add at least a win to their bottom-line projection with this move. With the American League wild-card and AL East races both crowded with good-but-not-great teams, moves like this have more than a marginal effect on a team's playoff chances. Tampa Bay hasn't leapfrogged the cluster it was already in with division mates Toronto and Boston, but it has strengthened its place within that group. -- Doolittle

Dodgers decide enough isn't enough and add Yates

The deal: One year, $13 million (can escalate to $14 million with 55 games pitched)
Grade: B+

Stop. Just stop. After agreeing to a deal with Kirby Yates -- who, mind you, had a 1.17 ERA and 33 saves and allowed a .113 average last season with the Rangers -- the Los Angeles Dodgers might be able to field two playoff teams now. They've certainly got the payroll of two playoff teams.

The Dodgers' offseason blitz includes re-signing Teoscar Hernandez and Blake Treinen; signing Blake Snell, Tanner Scott, Michael Conforto and Yates; adding Korean second baseman Hyeseong Kim; and winning the competition for Roki Sasaki, giving them a potential ace who will make the league minimum at the outset of his career.

As for the specifics on Yates: As dominant as he was in 2024, he barely pitched from 2020 to 2022 due to Tommy John surgery. Plus, he's turning 38 in March, so injury risk and age are reasons to hedge a bit on the grade. But, based on his performance last season, he looks like another player who could help push the Dodgers to challenge the MLB record of 116 wins in a season.

Yates is a two-pitch reliever, mixing in a four-seamer up in the zone that he threw 60% of the time with a splitter he used the rest of the time. Both pitches were unhittable, as batters hit .113 against the four-seamer and .114 against the splitter. The big change from his 2023 numbers: He allowed eight home runs on the four-seamer in 2023, but just three in 2024 (and no home runs either season on the splitter). If he continues to limit damage on the four-seamer, Yates will be a late-game reliever who could end up splitting closing duties with Scott.

Indeed, the Dodgers' bullpen looks terrifying, with the likes of Scott, Yates, Treinen, Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips and Alex Vesia, plus all the starting pitchers who won't be in the rotation at any given time. It might be impossible to match what Cleveland's bullpen did just last season, plus there is also a lot of volatile injury risk here: Phillips missed the World Series due to arm fatigue, Treinen has battled injuries through the years, and Brusdar Graterol will already miss the first half following shoulder surgery.

Still, the depth of the entire pitching staff is incredible; it's not hyperbole to suggest this has the potential to be one of the best staffs of all time. Obviously, health will play the key role there, but the Dodgers have so much depth that even that won't be a major hurdle to overcome (as it was in 2024). The playoffs create the illusion of parity, but this is team building that we haven't seen since the Yankees of the late 1990s/early 2000s. -- Schoenfield

Cubs add bullpen depth in deal for Pressly

Cubs get:
RHP Ryan Pressly

Astros get:
Low-level prospect (pending medical review)

Cubs grade: C+

The Cubs have been searching for late-inning bullpen consistency for years -- since they won the World Series in 2016. They haven't had a reliever with at least 25 saves in a season since Wade Davis in 2018 and the last reliever to lead the team in saves in consecutive seasons was Hector Rondon in 2015 and 2016 -- and Aroldis Chapman replaced Rondon as closer in the second half of 2016.

As a result, they've been all over the board in bullpen win probability added in recent years -- but were particularly poor last season, a key reason they underperformed their Pythagorean record by five wins:

2024: 25th in WPA

2023: 17th in WPA

2022: Ninth in WPA

2021: 15th in WPA

So, in comes Pressly, a two-time All-Star who served as Houston's closer from 2020 to 2023 before Josh Hader displaced him last season. The Cubs are essentially trading for Pressly and his salary ($14 million), so the prospect isn't likely to be too noteworthy.

What are the Cubs getting? A still effective although slightly diminished Pressly. After holding opponents to an OPS in the .500 range in 2019, 2021 and 2022, that has gone up to .623 in 2023 and .718 in 2024, his highest since 2016. He has always been heavy slider/curveball usage, but as his fastball velocity dropped to 93.8 mph in 2024, it got hit hard: .313 average and .500 slugging allowed and the breaking stuff was hit a little harder as well. The Cubs are hoping Pressly, 36, can maintain at this point. It's not realistic to expect Pressly to return to the dominant reliever he was a few years ago.

He could still get a first crack at closer duties, however. Porter Hodge is the best returning reliever, coming off an impressive rookie season in which he allowed just 19 hits in 43 innings and compiled a 1.88 ERA. The Cubs also acquired Eli Morgan from Cleveland earlier in the offseason and if they can keep Nate Pearson and Julian Merryweather healthy, there is a chance for some solid depth. Still, they will head into the season with another new closer. Maybe it will work better than it has in the past six years. Pressly has excelled in the postseason with a 2.78 ERA and just one home run allowed across 45 innings.

Astros grade: Incomplete

There's one way to view this deal from Houston's perspective: Trimming Pressly's salary means speculation about re-signing Alex Bregman will increase. Just the other day, Astros GM Dana Brown said that the team was still in talks with Bregman, although he called a reunion "a long shot." They have Isaac Paredes penciled in at third base and Christian Walker at first, so signing Bregman would create a positional logjam. Isaac Paredes doesn't work as a utility guy because he has never played outfield and lacks the range to play shortstop if needed, but maybe they could try him in left field -- or use him as a DH if they play Yordan Alvarez more often in left (He started 53 games in left last season, but with his knees, the less outfield duty, the better). We'll call this incomplete until we see what the next move is for the Astros. -- Schoenfield

Braves add left fielder in '24 All-Star Profar

The deal: Three years, $42 million
Grade: C

Not only had the Atlanta Braves seen their top National League rivals all make major moves this offseason -- the Los Angeles Dodgers with Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki (among others), the New York Mets with Juan Soto (and others), the Philadelphia Phillies with Jesus Luzardo and Max Kepler -- they had watched Max Fried and Charlie Morton leave as free agents. Fried went to the New York Yankees and Morton signed with the Baltimore Orioles. Even the Arizona Diamondbacks, who matched the Braves with 89 wins last season, signed a Cy Young contender in Corbin Burnes.

It was becoming a little more critical that the Braves do something to improve their roster, rather than simply rely on the offense to bounce back from a dismal 2024 season and Spencer Strider to return from Tommy John surgery at full force. So they've agreed to a deal with Jurickson Profar, who has to be viewed as one of the biggest wild cards among all free agents this offseason.

In 2023, Profar was one of the worst regulars in the majors, producing minus-1.3 bWAR between 111 games with the Colorado Rockies and 14 with the San Diego Padres (FanGraphs actually ranked him last among all 656 position players in WAR at minus-1.6). A free agent at the end of that season, Profar went unsigned: He eventually returned to the Padres after spring training started on a deal with a $1 million base salary.

He then went out and had the best season of his career for San Diego, hitting .280/.380/.459, starting the All-Star Game and ranking seventh in the majors in on-base percentage. While he's had good plate discipline and above-average contact rates, Profar's batted-ball metrics jumped to levels he had never approached before. His hard-hit rate (balls above 95 mph) had never been higher than 34% and soared to 44.4% (putting him in the 71st percentile of all hitters); his average exit velocity increased from 86.5 mph to 91.1 mph (from the ninth percentile to the 80th).

So while the metrics generally suggest his 2024 numbers were legit, that doesn't answer the question: Can he do it again? He enters his age-32 season; keep in mind that, since 2004, only four outfielders 30 or older had at least 3.0 bWAR: Aaron Judge, Teoscar Hernandez, Byron Buxton and Profar, who was at 3.6. If there is one player most likely to regress in 2025, it might be Profar, which is why it's hard to give this signing another other than a C grade.

For the Padres, it's a major loss, particularly since Profar had indicated at the end of the season that he'd like to return, telling reporters after the playoff loss to the Dodgers, "I want to be here. This team, I think they have all the things to win a World Series. Mike Shildt built a beautiful thing here. Hopefully I'm part of it."

For the Braves, Profar adds much-needed outfield depth. He'll start in left field, and once Ronald Acuña Jr. returns from his knee injury, Jarred Kelenic will slide down to a fourth outfielder role. With Acuña missing most of the season (and not hitting well before he was injured), Michael Harris II missing 52 games and seeing a downturn in his production and Kelenic hitting just .231/.286/.393, the Atlanta outfield ranked just 21st in the majors in OPS in 2024 -- after ranking first in 2023 behind Acuña's MVP season.

Indeed, while Profar will be a huge boost if he gets on base like he did in 2024, the more likely scenario is the Braves are better because Acuña returns and others such as Harris and Matt Olson have better seasons. -- Doolittle

Blue Jays finally land a free agent in Santander

The deal: Five years, $92.5 million (player opt-out after 2028; Jays can void opt-out with 2030 club option)
Grade: C-

After failing to land several big-name free agents going back to the pursuit of Shohei Ohtani last offseason, it became apparent the Toronto Blue Jays would have to overpay to entice a player to come to Canada -- and this deal certainly has the sniff of desperation to it.

Anthony Santander put up huge power numbers for the Baltimore Orioles in 2024, in a tough park to hit home runs. The switch-hitter ranked third in the majors with 44 homers, trailing only Aaron Judge and Ohtani. While the 44 home runs easily marked a career high, the power is certainly for real: Santander hit 33 home runs in 2022 and 28 in 2023, putting him sixth in the majors over the past three seasons.

He's entering his age-30 season, making him two years younger than Teoscar Hernandez, and has been a comparable hitter to Hernandez: Santander has a 124 wRC+ over the past three seasons while Hernandez has a 123 wRC+. Santander also strikes out less often.

If Hernandez re-signing with the Dodgers (3 years, $66 million) was generally praised, why does deal then this feel so much riskier? Well, for starters, the deal is longer and for more money (both deals include deferred money). Plus, Hernandez is coming off a marginally better all-around season: 4.3 bWAR compared to Santander's 2.9 bWAR (although much closer in fWAR, with Hernandez leading at 3.5 to 3.3). Hernandez also hits the ball harder (81st percentile hard-hit rate compared to 60th percentile for Santander), which is one reason to bet on him to age well.

Most important, there's this startling stat: Only four outfielders who were age 30 or older had at least 3.0 bWAR in 2024: Judge, Hernandez, Byron Buxton and Jurickson Profar. In 2023, there were just six. In 2022, just five. Recent history thus suggests it's unlikely Santander remains a 3-win player into his 30s -- and certainly not at age 34 or 35, which would be the potential final years of the contract. He also doesn't have the defensive chops to add additional value in the field, adding further risk here.

That said, he does fill an immediate need for the Blue Jays. They ranked 23rd in the majors in runs scored in 2024 and 26th in home runs. Their outfielders were even more problematic, ranking 28th in OPS and 20th in home runs. For their best offensive configuration, the Jays can line up Gold Glover Daulton Varsho in center with Santander and George Springer in the corners. Santander also helps breaks up a bunch of right-handed bats in the middle of the order in Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Springer.

Indeed, that's the other hidden factor here: Giving Guerrero a reason to stay in Toronto. The two sides have yet to come to an agreement on a long-term extension, a negotiation that Guerrero has said will end once spring training begins. Signing Santander (and trading for defensive whiz Andres Gimenez earlier this offseason) at least shows Guerrero some sort of attempted commitment to winning. I'm not sure it's enough -- either to win in 2025, especially in a tough AL East, or to convince Guerrero to stay in Toronto. -- Schoenfield

Dodgers nab Scott for bullpen

The deal: Four years, $72 million
Grade: B+

The Los Angeles Dodgers' quest to go 162-0 took another step forward on Sunday, when the winter's top free agent reliever, Tanner Scott, became the champs' latest luxury acquisition. What do you give to the team that has everything? More. Why? Because they can.

The Dodgers already had three closer-level short relievers on their depth chart in Blake Treinen, Michael Kopech and Evan Phillips. All are righties, of course, and so Scott joining the contingent not only deepens it, but gives it more balance.

I'm not sure you can just pencil Scott into a traditional ninth-inning saves role as you would on just about every other roster. We'll see if the Dodgers say differently in the days to come, but I think they've moved beyond that kind of rigid bullpen role deployment.

I'd guess Scott is the likeliest Dodgers reliever to lead the team in saves, but there will be nothing lost if Treinen or one of the others ends up finishing a win if Scott matches up better with a portion of the lineup that confronts L.A. in the seventh or eighth inning.

Scott can certainly handle this kind of usage; he's rarely been a pure closer. Through his age-29 season, his career high in saves were the 22 he logged last season between Miami and San Diego. If he wanted to merely rack up saves, he'd have joined a different team.

Scott's performance has wavered some over the years because of control issues that have seemed to iron out the last two seasons in advance of this massive payday. He's what in the old days we might have called "effectively wild" in that he more than offsets his walks with an arsenal that is exceedingly difficult to barrel up or even elevate.

As a result, Scott pairs plus swing-and-miss metrics with above average groundball rates. Among the 261 pitchers who have faced at least 500 batters over the last two seasons, Scott has given up the second-lowest rate of homers per nine innings. Only Royals closer Lucas Erceg has been more difficult to take deep.

This killer combination of factors has allowed Scott to compile a remarkable 7.6 bWAR over the last two seasons, 2.6 more than Cleveland's Emmanuel Clase atop the list of relief pitchers.

The only reason this isn't an A is because of a nagging feeling that contracts of this value and duration for a relief pitcher -- any relief pitcher -- are rarely a good idea. Scott has a clean injury record -- his only IL stint over the last four seasons was because of a minor knee issue -- but there are no certainties in this position group. Scott's record of high level success is fairly short. There's a smidgen of risk here given the scope of the contract.

None of that means the Dodgers made a mistake, especially given their propensity for helping pitchers get even better. L.A. made a similar investment in Kenley Jansen back in 2017 and that worked out just fine. In securing Scott, they not only deepen their already-deep bullpen and stupidly-deep overall pitching staff, but they kept him away from a number of teams they are likely to see in October.

And make no mistake, the Dodgers, with each passing addition, keep nudging their postseason probability as close to dead certain as a team can get in January. After introducing Scott into the Dodgers' depth chart, their baseline win projection in my system went from 101.6 to an even 102. Which is just silly for this time of the year but also shows just how high the bar is for making this roster even better on paper. The Dodgers' over/under for wins at ESPN Bet sits at 102.5 as of this writing. I had their postseason odds at 97.5 percent before this signing.

So get ready to see the Dodgers in October once again. Once there, Scott even has a dazzling postseason record to offer, if not a long one. He's retired 16 of the 20 batters he's faced and one of the batters that reached was via an intentional walk. He hasn't allowed an extra base hit, giving him a robust .311 OPS allowed with eight strikeouts.

As for those eight strikeouts: Four of them came during last year's NLDS showdown between the Dodgers and Padres when Scott was on the mound for San Diego, and Shohei Ohtani was at the plate for the Dodgers.

If nothing else, that's one worrisome mathcup the Dodgers won't be confronted with for at least four years. -- Doolittle

Japanese ace Sasaki picks Dodgers

The deal: Six years, $6.5 million
Grade: A

The grade part of this is the easiest to explain. In news you had to expect, given the Los Angeles Dodgers' hot streak of high-level pursuits, the champs landed a pitcher who might be baseball's top prospect -- one ready to join a big league rotation now -- in Roki Sasaki. And they do so with the same financial commitment as if Sasaki were an internally developed player who recently reached the majors.

In a way, the financial aspect is even rosier than that (from the Dodgers' perspective), as typically with a prospect of this caliber, a team might feel pressure to sign him to an early extension. With Sasaki, there's no such pressure: Any talk of an extension now would be viewed as circumventing the transfer rules. It's almost too good to be true.

However, there are costs beyond Sasaki's extremely team-friendly salary over the next few years. The signing bonus was limited due to the size of the team's international bonus pool, but it's still real money. And there is opportunity cost involved, because now the Dodgers can't sign a larger pool of international prospects. For this international signing period, all the Dodgers' eggs are in the Roki basket.

Obviously, the trade-off is worth it for Los Angeles. Not only does Sasaki further strengthen the powerful Dodgers, but they sidestep the ignominy of seeing him pick their biggest rivals in the San Diego Padres. Perhaps no team needed Sasaki more than San Diego, but it's the Dodgers who come away with one of the most impactful additions of the offseason.

Read Bradford Doolittle's full Roki Sasaki grade here

Blue Jays find their closer in Hoffman

The deal: Three years, $33 million
Grade: A-

Hoffman was one of my favorite free agents this offseason: a high-leverage reliever who has been one of the top bullpen arms in the majors over the past two seasons with the Phillies, posting a 2.28 ERA while averaging 12 K's per nine and allowing a .180 batting average and .544 OPS. While some teams reportedly had interest in Hoffman as a starter, the Blue Jays have already indicated Hoffman will be their closer (or at least get first crack at the job, but he's the clear front-runner considering their other options).

Which makes sense. With Jordan Romano unable to stay healthy last season and other relievers regressing from their 2023 seasons, the Toronto bullpen was awful: 29th in the majors in ERA and 28th in win probability added. Hoffman projects as a significant upgrade over their revolving door of ninth-inning options of last season (Romano has signed with the Phillies, so he and Hoffman have effectively changed places).

Getting a closer at $11 million per season also seems like a relative bargain -- especially compared with the contracts for some other elite closers in recent years: Edwin Diaz signed a five-year, $102 million contract with the Mets; Josh Hader went to the Astros on a five-year, $95 million deal. Those two haven't outpitched Hoffman over the past two seasons. Lesser relievers such as Aroldis Chapman ($10.75 million) and Andrew Kittredge ($10 million) have signed one-year deals this offseason at nearly the same level as Hoffman's average salary. Even Romano, coming off injuries that limited him to just 13 innings, signed for $8.5 million.

No, Hoffman doesn't have the Capital C Closer pedigree, although he did pick up 10 saves with the Phillies last season, but that's why he'll cost $33 million instead of $100 million. It's quite the turnaround for a guy the Reds let go after the 2022 season and Twins released in spring training of 2023. Hoffman's stuff has ticked up with the Phillies, however, as he has added a little more velocity on his four-seamer and more spin on his slider. His biggest change, however, has been in pitch usage: With the Reds in 2021-22, when he had a 4.28 ERA, he threw his four-seamer over 50% of the time. With the Phillies, it was 34% in 2023 and 39% in 2024. Add in his splitter and occasional two-seamer and he has a nice four-pitch repertoire (thus the idea of trying him as a starter).

Hoffman did have Tommy John surgery his draft year coming out of East Carolina and never managed to click as a starter with the Rockies, but that also means he has relatively little wear and tear on his arm. He just turned 32, so I believe his success will continue over the next three seasons. This could end up as one of the best signings of the offseason. -- Schoenfield

Giants sign Verlander to one-year deal

The deal: One year, $15 million

Giants grade: A
Verlander grade: C
Tigers grade: F

I guess I should start by explaining those last two extraneous grades, which are offered mostly in jest. The Verlander grade is a product of my own mania born from a retrograde desire to see baseball have one final 300-game winner. Verlander isn't likely to get there, not at this point when he's six weeks shy of his 42nd birthday and 38 victories away from the magic number. But if anyone is going to get there it's Verlander, and choosing the Giants as possibly his final stop isn't the ideal platform from which my fever dream can come to fruition.

I ran a fresh set of simulations Tuesday morning after updating depth charts to reflect Monday's moves. The Giants' baseline forecast of 77.9 wins translates to a fourth-place standing in the NL West with an 18% shot at the playoffs. If Verlander had joined, say, the Orioles or Braves or the Mets -- better teams presumably still looking for rotation help -- it would have boosted his chances to steal a few extra wins. As it stands, he's going to have to compile wins by outperforming the likely sub-.500 team around him.

The Tigers' grade is purely a product of sentiment. It's not unreasonable to wish for a reunion and you have to think plenty of veteran fans in Michigan are scratching their heads. Detroit needs another veteran for the rotation. The rumor mill has connected the Tigers to Jack Flaherty, who they traded at last year's deadline, but strangely Verlander's name rarely came up. Well, Detroit did sign one veteran starter, injury-prone righty Alex Cobb, who agreed to a one-year, $15 million contract. Do those terms sound familiar?

The contract details also match the deal veteran Charlie Morton reached with Baltimore. Clearly, there's a pattern here. Couldn't the Tigers have ponied up this offer at least as a starting point? It would have been a great baseball story if Verlander had been able to finish his first-ballot Hall of Fame career in Detroit, where he built much of that historic resume. In any event, if Verlander shrugs off his lackluster 2024 season, every team that didn't sign him is going to look at this day as an expensive bit of opportunity cost, but perhaps no team will rue it more than the Tigers.

The serious grade on the list is the one for the Giants. There is no downside to this signing, especially given who's left in the free agent marketplace. (Max Scherzer notwithstanding.) Oracle Park will be a great place for Verlander to pitch, especially considering his spiked homer rate in 2024, and the high-revenue Giants really don't need to sweat it if Verlander ends up spending the summer on the IL.

Which could happen. Verlander has become an IL fixture in this last phase of his career. There was the one-start season in 2020 that led to Tommy John surgery, which wiped out 2021. In 2022, he was mostly healthy but hit the shelf for a few weeks with a calf strain. In 2023, it was a shoulder problem that cost him a few weeks. Last year, it was issues with that shoulder and his neck. Through the injuries, until 2024, his per-game performance had remained strong. Last year (5.48 ERA, 4.78 FIP, diving strikeout rate), it did not. Still: Verlander's Statcast measures yielded an expected ERA of 3.78, not much different from 2023. This can work.

Even if it doesn't, the Giants can add Verlander's name to a long roster of Hall of Fame hurlers who have spent time with the franchise, an amazing lineage ranging from the days of Christy Mathewson and Iron Joe McGinnity to late-career Giant cameos more recently from Warren Spahn, Steve Carlton and Randy Johnson.

If it does work out, there will be a lot of teams wondering why they weren't a tad bit more aggressive in going after one of the handful of best pitchers from this century. And we might, just maybe, start dreaming of those 300 wins with renewed hope. -- Doolittle

Dodgers deal Lux to Reds

Cincinnati gets:
2B Gavin Lux

Los Angeles gets:
OF Mike Sirota
A competitive balance draft pick (No. 37 overall in 2025)

Reds grade: C-

The Reds needed more established MLB production in their position group. They also needed help in the outfield and an influx of power in the middle of the lineup. It's possible that this addition will give them the leeway to move players around to fill those needs. But they could have also just, you know, acquired a power-hitting outfielder.

At this point, you can't really consider Lux as anything beyond a second baseman. He struggled badly as a shortstop in L.A., and his arm strength (seventh percentile, per Statcast) has keystone written all over it. As a second baseman, his bat is middle of the road. He has excellent plate discipline, but his swing produces too many grounders and not enough homers. His .252 career batting average is superficially low, but in the context of the current majors, that's actually better than the mean.

There's upside left in Lux. He's entering his age-27 season, the second-to-last of his arbitration window. That will make him highly motivated to put up some numbers. Great American Ball Park is a boon to most hitters but for Lux, his Statcast homer translations are the same there as in Dodger Stadium, and grounders don't leave the yard anyway.

In essence, the Reds have swapped Jonathan India, dealt earlier this winter for Brady Singer, for Lux at second base. It's a mostly lateral move and India arguably has a little edge in on-base percentage, but making that swap while adding a rotation fixture is a net gain. That's where the nominally passing grade comes in.

My knee-jerk reaction was to be more harsh here because the roster fit just seems odd. If you supplant Matt McLain, whose game might be ready to explode, at second base, where does he go? At shortstop, you've got Elly De La Cruz, and he's the franchise. His arm will play anywhere, but do you move the franchise player off his primary position, where he has played well?

Then there's third base -- but on the corners, Cincinnati was already trying to fit Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Jeimer Candelario, Noelvi Marte and Spencer Steer. Encarnacion-Strand has played some outfield, and McLain runs and throws well enough to play on the grass. Steer has played plenty of left field.

With all of those moving parts, plus the DH, the Reds can make it all work from a playing time standpoint. But does it make them any better? They still need someone for the middle of the order. Lux is not that. The offensive picture in Cincinnati is pretty much exactly what it was when 2024 ended.

Dodgers grade: B

After the Dodgers signed Korean infielder Hyeseong Kim earlier this week, general manager Brandon Gomes told reporters that they still viewed Lux and Mookie Betts as their starting middle infield. Dealing Lux for a draft pick and a far-from-the-majors prospect indicates that, at the very least, those plans changed.

It now seems likely that Kim will become the Dodgers' starting second baseman, or at least the heavy side of a quasi-platoon with one of the righty-hitting utility players on the roster. He will at least offer standout defense and much more of a base-stealing threat than Lux. If his bat carries over, he also will offer more contact with no drop-off from Lux's OBP. But the offensive part of that maneuver is a risk; as with all hitters coming over from the KBO, we actually need to see that production transfer.

Still, the Dodgers' baseline forecast doesn't move at all with this redistribution of playing time and the switch to Kim gives the roster a different dynamic. In clearing the way for Kim by trading Lux, they also snag a pretty nice return. The competitive balance pick alone gives the Dodgers a shot at adding another upside talent next summer, but don't sleep on Sirota.

Right now, we don't have much to go on. The Baseball America draft scouting report plays up Sirota's speed and defense, suggesting he can play center field in the majors if his bat gets him there. He had Dodgers-like traits in his college profile at Northeastern: pop off the bat and excellent plate discipline. If he develops at all, he'll at the very least give L.A. more ammunition in a future trade.

Sirota, a third-round pick by Cincinnati in the most recent draft, didn't get any game action in a league setting after being selected. But the Dodgers took him out of high school (a rather exclusive school in Connecticut) in 2021 as a 16th-round pick, though he didn't sign. That they target him again is a strong indication that Sirota offers something the Dodgers believe they can work with. And they are rarely wrong about such things. -- Doolittle

Royals bring swing pitcher Lorenzen back for another run

The deal: One year, $7 million plus incentives an a $12 million mutual option for 2026
The grade: B

There's really nothing not to like for Kansas City given the array of roles Michael Lorenzen can fill. Whether or not that includes a return to occasional positional duty is unclear but that's a question for another time. The grade doesn't factor that in.

Lorenzen was fantastic after the Royals acquired him from the Texas Rangers, logging a 1.57 ERA and 3.90 FIP over 28 2/3 innings. Lorenzen's command was sharper than it had been with the Rangers and he was able to carry that over to some solid work in two postseason appearances, though he was saddled with a Game 1 loss in the ALDS against the Yankees when he allowed an inherited runner to score.

Kansas City has a rotation hole to fill after dealing Brady Singer earlier in the offseason. Lorenzen may or may not be the one to fill it. He'll join a group of contenders that include Alec Marsh, Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch and Kyle Wright. Chances are, Lorenzen will swing between roles, something he's done adeptly throughout his career.

Re-upping with Lorenzen deepens the Kansas City staff and likely finishes the heavy lifting this winter on the pitching side. The Royals keep hunting for depth possibilities of course (you may have heard that you can never have enough pitching) but now they can laser in on unearthing the impact outfield bat that will really check the last box of their offseason needs. -- Doolittle

Orioles bolster rotation with Morton

The deal: One year, $15 million
Grade: B

Remember when Charlie Morton was contemplating retirement ... like five years ago? Instead, the right-hander keeps rolling along and, after turning 41 in November, will return for an 18th season in the majors. Despite his age, he's about as safe as you can expect for a starting pitcher: He's made 30 starts and qualified for the ERA title each of his past six full seasons, one of just three starters to do that since 2018 (Aaron Nola and Jose Berrios are the others).

He's remained productive, a reasonable No. 3 or 4 option in the rotation for a contender. He was 8-10 with a 4.19 ERA for Atlanta in 2024, still throwing 94 mph with strikeout and whiff rates just a little above the MLB average. His high-spin curveball remains his best pitch -- batters hit .200 against it last season -- and he's adjusted through the years by throwing it even more often (42% in 2024) and his four-seamer less. That does lead to a few more walks (and hit batters) than you'd like, but he compensates for that with a high groundball rate.

Of course, the knock here will be the Orioles not re-signing Corbin Burnes or adding one of the top starters, instead settling on Morton and 35-year-old Japanese right-handed Tomoyuki Sugano to round out a rotation that also features Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer in the top five. Albert Suarez, Trevor Rogers and Cade Povich are in reserve or options if the Orioles want to use a six-man rotation (and others perhaps returning later from injuries). I've believed all along that Mike Elias is going to stick to his strategy, and that's not issuing long-term contracts to starting pitchers.

You know what? It's not necessarily a bad strategy, trying to minimize the risk of those big deals for pitchers. And I like this group, even if it does lack a clear-cut No. 1 ace -- Rodriguez has the talent to have a breakout season and get close to that level and Eflin has been one of the more underrated starters the past two seasons. The current FanGraphs projections rank the Orioles' rotation 25th in WAR, but that doesn't include Morton or Sugano, which should push the projection to around 10th or so. Plus, following the mantra of many teams these days, the Orioles have the depth to help withstand injuries. That was the case last year when only Burnes exceeded 24 starts and the Orioles finished with the fifth-best rotation ERA in the majors (they'll be hard-pressed to match that with the left-field fence moving in).

I also don't mind the Orioles keeping all their prospects rather than trade for a starter -- let's see what Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad can do with regular playing time. Let's see what Jackson Holliday does with more experience. If they need a pitcher or a big bat at the trade deadline, they'll have the depth to make a deal. The Orioles were a minor disappointment a year ago with 91 wins, but I'll take the over on that for 2024, even after losing Burnes and Anthony Santander. -- Schoenfield

Dodgers add star Korean infielder Hyeseong Kim

The deal: Three years, $12.5 million guaranteed, plus a two-years-or-none team option
Grade: B+

First things first: If you don't follow the international player market closely, particularly as it pertains to those coming over from the KBO, this is not Ha-Seong Kim, the infielder who has been with the San Diego Padres in recent seasons and is also a free agent. This is a whole other guy, a now former KBO teammate of ex-Dodger Yasiel Puig and current Giant Jung Hoo Lee.

This Kim has a slightly different profile than Ha-Seong, though his scouting reports suggest a similar prowess with the glove and on the bases. Hyeseong bats lefty, plays both middle infield positions, has started at both third base and left field in the KBO and has less power than Ha-Seong.

ESPN's Kiley McDaniel predicted a three-year, $16.5 million deal for Hyeseong, so the Dodgers might have landed a bargain for a player whose posting window was just hours from closing. Now Kim becomes yet another of the multi-position players L.A. loves so much. The lefty bat distinguishes Kim from Chris Taylor and Miguel Rojas in the short term. His presence also gives the Dodgers more space to play Tommy Edman in center, as the need to move him around is reduced. Longer term, if Kim hits, he could transcend the utility level.

The baseline of skills is promising. Kim is a 70-grade runner, per Baseball America, and has a track record of good on-base skills. His defense, while perhaps not quite at Ha-Seong's MLB Gold Glove level, is impactful and versatile. Someone might have to give manager Dave Roberts one of those big "who's who" charts like you see at the beginning of a fantasy novel just so he can keep track of who plays what positions on his roster. It's dizzying.

There is very little downside to this deal given Kim's secondary skills. At worse, he'll be a plus threat on the bases who provides above-average defense all over the field and contributes competitive at-bats. If he hits at all, the Dodgers will come out way ahead on the contract, as if they really needed to.

Kim and Lee played together for five seasons for the Kiwoom Heroes, so perhaps it's worth considering their comparative performance, given the identical venue and league contexts, as well as the fact that they both hit lefty. In a similar number of plate appearances from 2019 to 2023, Lee hit .340/.409/.510 with 57 homers and 46 steals. Kim hit .306/.366/.398 with 21 homers and 150 steals. Different player types, to be sure, but you can see why Kim profiles more as a likely super-utility type than a regular like Lee, who retains that status even after his injury-shortened debut season for the Giants.

The translation-based projection from ClayDavenport.com is optimistic, putting Kim at .270/.337/.388 with 27 steals. That will play, even on a super-loaded Dodgers roster that increasingly looks like the All-Tournament Team from the World Baseball Classic. They come from all over to don Dodger blue these days, and why not? -- Doolittle

Diamondbacks land ace Burnes for $210 million

The deal: Six years, $210 million; Burnes can opt out after 2026 season
Grade: B+

If the Diamondbacks don't have a new rotation ace after landing the top starter in this free agent class, it's only because they already had two of them. That's far from a bad thing.

The addition of Corbin Burnes gives Arizona at least one season with an elite big three and, for now, a full house of name-brand starting pitchers. The 2025 season is the only one for which we can be sure this group will be intact, but the D-backs' rotation lines up like this:

Burnes
Zac Gallen
Merrill Kelly
Eduardo Rodriguez
Brandon Pfaadt

Depth: Ryne Nelson, Jordan Montgomery, Drey Jameson, Yilber Diaz, Blake Walston, Cristian Mena

There's more than one rotation of quality starters there. With so many young arms on the list, and a solid foundation of quality veteran pitchers, Mike Hazen has all sorts of ways to leverage this group, whether it's using some of the younger guys as combo/swing pitchers or high-leverage relievers. He can also dangle them in trade talks, as he did when he dealt Slade Cecconi to Cleveland in the Josh Naylor deal earlier this month. Montgomery, still around for now, is someone Hazen would surely like to move but even if or when that happens, the Diamondbacks' rotation outlook is rosy and plentiful.

With Burnes having signed for $35 million in AAV, the probability that he will opt out in two years is hard to guess. If he pitches well enough to do it, he'd still be just 32, the same age Blake Snell is now, and Snell got $182 million over five years from the Dodgers. So Arizona is rolling the dice a bit with this contract structure, as the most likely scenario in which Burnes sticks around for six years is one in which he doesn't pitch as well as expected or gets hurt.

That's only considering the dollars and cents of it, though, and it's entirely possible that Burnes will want to hang around even if he continues to be a leading Cy Young contender. For one thing, he lives in the Phoenix area. Also, the Diamondbacks have a bright near-term outlook with a dynamic, relatively young position-player group and a nice foundation for the pitching staff even if Gallen and Kelly depart as free agents after the coming season. And, not for nothing, $35 million per year is a pretty solid fallback option, and maybe he doesn't need to extract every last penny from the marketplace by hitting free agency again in two years.

There is always built-in risk in big, multiyear deals for pitchers, no matter who they are. The Diamondbacks know this as well as anyone, as they've seen deals go south (Madison Bumgarner, Montgomery) or become onerous to their ability to do other things (Zack Greinke). The future of the E-Rod deal is in limbo as well after he struggled through an injury-marred debut season in Arizona.

But as far as certainty goes, Burnes provides as much of it as a starting pitcher can in the current game. He has a remarkably clean health record and a résumé full of consistently outstanding production. He's on a five-year run of top-10 Cy Young finishes, a span during which he has posted a 2.88 aggregate ERA with a 3.01 FIP and won 63% of his outings while averaging 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings.

Burnes' strikeout rate has actually declined annually since a peak K-rate of 36.7% in the shortened 2020 season, though. That's not necessarily the red flag you might read it to be. Burnes mixes six pitches, starting with a cutter/curveball combo he throws to all hitters while adding a slider, changeup, sinker and sweeper mix that he varies depending on which side of the plate the hitter is standing on. All of the pitches perform well in tracking metrics, and his top-end stuff remains intact. By all evidence, he has simply become a smarter, more refined hurler over time.

Burnes is elite at holding hitters to low hard-hit rates and has leaned on that skill increasingly. The quality of the Arizona defense will encourage that practice even more. As a result, Burnes can pitch deep into games, earning a high rate of quality starts and racking up 190-200 innings per season with fewer pitches. Burnes ramps it up when he needs to: In 2024, he had an overall K/BB ratio of 3.77. In high-leverage spots, he struck out 28 batters and walked just three for a K/BB ratio of 9.33. That's what a true ace does.

The terms of the deal are a bit surprising in that Burnes ends up with less maximum earning potential than Max Fried, who can bring in $218 million from the eight-year deal he signed with the Yankees. Yes, Burnes has the opt-out and the higher AAV, but the latter is a bit misleading since the Yankees likely tacked on length to the deal to thin down the luxury tax calculation. And, let's face it, it's also surprising that Burnes got this deal from Arizona, especially since the D-backs had not been linked to him this offseason.

You have to give it to the Diamondbacks, though, as they will retain a lot of payroll flexibility because of expiring deals after the coming season. In a loaded, top-heavy National League, teams that aren't eligible to win the NL Central have to be aggressive. The Dodgers, Braves, Mets and Phillies are overwhelming favorites to land four of the five non-Central playoff slots, leaving the D-backs, Padres and Giants most likely vying for the last slot.

With this move, the Diamondbacks become the favorites to get that spot, although Arizona still has work to do on its bullpen. With this rotation, backed by an elite, athletic offense and top-flight defense, Arizona is poised to stand tall even in a league full of behemoths. -- Doolittle

Dodgers bring back Hernandez on three-year deal

The deal: Three years, $66 million
Grade: B

Last offseason, Teoscar Hernandez was a free agent, coming off a so-so season in Seattle, and he ended up signing a one-year deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. It turned out to be the perfect deal for both sides: Hernandez had his best season, started the All-Star Game, drove in 12 runs in 16 postseason games and helped the Dodgers win the World Series. He emerged as a popular, energetic presence in the clubhouse and everyone predicted a reunion -- and we finally got there, after weeks of reports that the two sides were far apart.

If Hernandez can replicate his 2024 numbers over the next three seasons, this will be a steal of a deal: He hit .272/.339/.501 with 33 home runs, 99 RBIs and 4.3 WAR. Hernandez fared well in many of the Statcast metrics: 81st percentile hard-hit rate, 94th percentile barrel rate, 73rd percentile in bat speed. He's very good at hitting the ball hard and that's the name of the game in 2020s baseball. His big negative, of course, is his strikeouts: 188 of them. Despite his good speed, he's also a below-average defender, lacking the instincts to be anything other than acceptable in either outfield corner.

His power and speed are reasons to bet on him as those are tools that generally age well. Still, this is a player entering his age-32 season -- and that makes this a risky deal no matter the 2024 numbers. Just consider all players aged 32 or older for each of the past three seasons. Only Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt and Jose Altuve topped eight combined WAR over the three seasons (Marcus Semien also did it just his age 32/33 seasons while Aaron Judge did it in just his age-32 season). Those are four potential Hall of Famers plus Semien, who has over 45 career WAR.

The point: Hernandez has not been on the level of those players. Aside from Judge, the best outfielders 32 or older over the past three seasons have been George Springer (7.3 WAR), Kevin Kiermaier (5.9 WAR) and Mark Canha (5.2 WAR). Only 11 position players 32 or older produced even 3.0 WAR in 2024 -- and Judge was the only outfielder to do it. Hernandez doesn't have to produce at a four-win level for this deal to pay off for the Dodgers, but there is a chance it goes the direction of the Chris Taylor contract. The Dodgers signed him to a four-year contract after 2021, covering his age-31 to -34 seasons, and have received just 2.1 WAR in three seasons.

From a baseball standpoint, Hernandez is a great fit in the L.A. lineup since he's a right-handed batter who destroys lefties (.290/.357/.574 in 2024). With Shohei Ohtani, Freeman and Max Muncy, Hernandez helps break up the string of lefties at the top of the order. The Dodgers' outfield is also set now. With Mookie Betts returning to shortstop, this puts Hernandez in right, Tommy Edman in center and Michael Conforto and Andy Pages platooning in left. As always, they have plenty of flexibility: Edman can play the infield and Pages is capable of playing center. (James Outman and Taylor are also around.) The Dodgers are taking a bit of a hit on defense with Hernandez and Conforto below average in the corners and Betts a bit of a question mark at shortstop, but they'll score plenty of runs.

In the end, I'm giving this a B, despite my skepticism of Hernandez remaining at an All-Star level. The Dodgers needed Hernandez for 2025 and, at the minimum, he should at least remain an excellent platoon bat beyond that. And for the Dodgers, $66 million is hardly a steep price as they look to become the first repeat World Series winners since 2000. -- Schoenfield

Tigers add infield depth with Torres

The deal: One year, $15 million
Grade: C+

Early in his career, Gleyber Torres looked like a potential superstar. He made the American League All-Star team in his first two seasons with the New York Yankees, his age-21 and age-22 seasons, including hitting 38 home runs in 2019. Only Alex Rodriguez had hit more home runs as a middle infielder in his age-22 season (Fernando Tatis Jr. later did so as well). Torres has never achieved the stardom those first two years portended, however, and now the Detroit Tigers have signed him after the Yankees showed no apparent interest in bringing him back.

What kind of player are the Tigers getting? Torres has lost a lot of his early athleticism, which necessitated a full-time move to second base in 2022. He has remained a slightly above-average hitter, slashing .263/.330/.427 over the past three seasons with a 111 OPS+. Those numbers were a little lower in 2024 though, as his home run total dipped from 24 and 25 the previous two seasons to 15. There is some cause for concern as his hard-hit rate also declined from 45% in 2022 to 35.4% in 2024.

Despite relatively consistent offensive production, his Baseball-Reference WAR has also declined: From 4.0 in 2022 (in 100 fewer plate appearances than '23 and '24) to 2.9 to 1.8. That's because the defensive metric used to calculate his bWAR -- defensive runs saved -- sees his defense sliding backward, from plus-9 runs in 2022 to minus-4 to minus-11. Statcast's outs above average metric also sees decline from 2022. The eye test certainly seems to confirm a lack of range.

Jesse Rogers reports that the Tigers intend to keep Torres at second base, which slides Colt Keith over to third base -- pushing Jace Jung to a backup role and likely taking the Tigers out of the Alex Bregman picture. We'll see how that plays out: Neither Torres nor Keith has a strong arm, so the Tigers could end up with below-average defense at two infield positions.

The one positive for Torres is his plate discipline -- if you watched the postseason, you saw a hitter who does a good job controlling the strike zone and rarely chases. Indeed, his .330 on-base percentage last season ranks behind only Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter among the holdover Tigers players, so despite his lack of speed Torres could hit at the top of the order, as he did for the Yankees.

I think that ability to get on base will at least prevent Torres from falling completely off the table and makes this a pretty low-risk signing. I also don't see much upside beyond a two-win player. I certainly wouldn't want Torres on a long-term deal, but he's fine for one year, although it's ultimately disappointing that the Tigers with payroll room to sign an impact free agent have so far failed to do so. -- Schoenfield

Red Sox add World Series hero Buehler to rotation

The deal: One year, $21.05 million (plus incentives)
Grade: B

Walker Buehler started 16 games during the regular season in 2024, going 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA while allowing 16 home runs in 75.1 innings. Those aren't the numbers of a pitcher who gets a $21 million contract. Buehler was in the rotation in the postseason only because the Dodgers had no other options. He started against the Padres in the NLDS and allowed six runs in five innings, with all six runs coming in the second inning with the help of a couple of defensive miscues behind him. Then he came back with four scoreless innings against the Mets in the NLCS, five scoreless innings (and a win!) against the Yankees in Game 3 of the World Series and then pitched a scoreless ninth inning on one day of rest to close out the World Series.

Now he is headed to the Boston Red Sox on a one-year deal. It's safe to say those 13 consecutive scoreless innings to end the postseason certainly helped create a little more interest in Buehler, reminding everyone that he was once one of the best young starters in the game before undergoing his second Tommy John surgery in 2022. As a rookie in 2018, he had a 2.62 ERA. He went 14-4 with a 3.26 ERA in the rabbit-ball year of 2019. In 2021, he went 16-4 with a 2.47 ERA, 7.1 WAR and finished fourth in the Cy Young voting.

Then Buehler got hurt and was slow to recover. The Dodgers had originally hoped for a return at the end of 2023 that never materialized, and he didn't make his 2024 debut until May. While his four-seamer averaged 95.0 mph, not far off from the 95.3 average in 2021, Buehler got hit hard. His spin rate was down on all his pitches, his swing-and-miss rate way down and that four-seamer in particular got walloped -- batters hit .342 and slugged .696 against it.

That's why I remain a little skeptical about Buehler bouncing back to something resembling his pre-surgery form. One-year contracts hold no risk, but 13 good innings in October aren't enough by themselves to predict the future. Even in the start against the Mets on a cold and windy night at Citi Field, Buehler gave a lot of credit to the weather helping create some additional movement on his pitches. His start against the Yankees was a little more legitimate, although even then he induced just nine swings-and-misses in 76 pitches.

The hope, of course, is that Buehler will regain some stuff as he gets more distance away from the surgery. Since the Dodgers didn't make a qualifying offer, the Red Sox also don't lose any draft pick compensation (as will be the case with Nick Pivetta, who turned down a qualifying offer from the Red Sox). Buehler essentially replaces Pivetta in the rotation, a group that now includes Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Cooper Criswell, Richard Fitts and Quinn Priester, plus Lucas Giolito and Patrick Sandoval returning from injuries. The Red Sox already ranked fifth in FanGraphs' projected WAR among starters. While Buehler's poor 2024 probably doesn't help those projected numbers, the 2021 version of Buehler -- or something close to it -- could make this the best (and deepest) rotation in the majors. -- Schoenfield

Rangers shuffle lineup, add to bullpen with Pederson signing, Nats trade

The deals: Texas Rangers trade 1B Nathaniel Lowe to Washington Nationals for LHP Robert Garcia; signed free agent DH Joc Pederson to two-year, $37 million contract. Pederson can opt out after the first season.

Rangers grade: A-

Sometimes the best moves are the ones you didn't even think a team necessarily needed to make.

It seemed like the Rangers' positional player group was more or less set after they added slugger Jake Burger and catcher Kyle Higashioka early in the offseason. When Texas acquired Burger from Miami, rumors were already out there that Lowe was a trade candidate but the roster looked pretty good as it was, and I'm not a fan of contending teams making cost-cutting moves unless it's part of a series of maneuvers that improves the near-term baseline.

That's how it turned out for Texas in this case. The news that Lowe was being shipped to the Nationals for Garcia came out Sunday evening. In a vacuum, I didn't love the move because it violated that aforementioned precept but I didn't hate it that much because Garcia is a legitimate candidate to assume a high-leverage role, making this more than a straight salary dump.

It also seemed likely that the deal was a precursor to something else and that turned out to be the late-night/pre-dawn news that Pederson had agreed to a pact with the Rangers. Now it all makes sense, and the Rangers are in a better place. In an AL West that is there for the taking, a modest upgrade matters a lot and taken as a whole, these moves might prove to be more than a marginal upgrade.

Pederson is more consistently productive than Lowe and his swing is better suited to Globe Life Field, which at this point has been around long enough that we have fairly informative park factors for the venue. According to Statcast, the park plays as the seventh-most power-friendly park for lefty swingers. While both hitters swing from that side, Pederson is much more of a fly ball, pull-heavy slugger than Lowe, who is below league average in both attributes, and Pederson simply has more power. That's reflected in markedly better scores in both average exit velocity and barrel rate.

The Pederson/Lowe swap does shuffle the roster. Lowe is a very good all-around player, a Gold Glove winner for his work at first base in 2023 who shows little in the way of a platoon differential. Pederson, on the other hand, remains subpar against same-side pitching and while he has played plenty of outfield in his career, he didn't don a glove at all during the 2024 season for Arizona. His sprint speed has declined annually and now ranks in the bottom quartile of the majors. The Rangers, if healthy, probably won't need him to play a position often, if at all, but it's still true that he's a straight-DH who isn't great against lefty pitchers.

The roster is better anyway. Pederson improves the power profile of a lineup primed for a bounce-back as a group, especially when considered in combination with the Burger pickup. Burger will do the heavy lifting at first base. The Rangers can make a lot of lineup combinations work because of the dynamic, one-two bench duo of righty-swinging Ezequiel Duran and lefty-swinging Josh Smith, so Bruce Bochy should be able to find a late-inning glove to spell Burger at first if needed.

Meanwhile, Lowe became the cost of clearing the payroll space to accommodate Pederson. That changes the clubhouse dynamic, always worth considering when thinking of a recent World Series winner, but in this case it's not necessarily a bad thing. Lowe was a steady, quiet presence in what sometimes feels like a staid Rangers clubhouse, and Pederson is, well, he's Joc Pederson.

And don't sleep on Garcia. A late bloomer, Garcia's 4.22 ERA for Washington doesn't make much sense when you look under the hood. Garcia struck out 75, walked just 16 and allowed four homers over 59⅔ innings, peripherals which translate to a 2.38 FIP. He was undermined by a .331 BABIP, which (along with six unearned runs allowed) suggests the Nats' defense did him no favors. Indeed, his tracking metrics are promising in terms of hard-hit rate, barrel rate, chase rate and strikeout rate.

Garcia misses bats and gets soft contact. He gets elite results on a changeup that he throws to righties, cutting down on any platoon complications. (And it was only righty hitters; according to Statcast, Garcia threw 295 changeups to righties in 2024 and zero to lefties). The Rangers appear to have landed Garica at just the right time and even if he goes south, he has just over one year of service time and will have the pre-arbitration salary that goes with it.

Even with these moves, the Rangers still need to add depth to the pitching staff, but they have more room under the tax line with which to maneuver. As it is, this roster is coming along very nicely.

Nationals grade: B

While the Rangers' tax situation dictates that they have to move money around while trying to improve, the Nationals have a pristine payroll picture and adding Lowe doesn't change that. All the good things about Garcia would have been good for Washington, but the Nationals need everyday bats and Lowe adds a lot to the mix. He's a solid two-way first baseman and a veteran presence on a very young team.

Washington gets two years of control with Lowe and with their wave of young players establishing themselves by the end of that period, the Nats should look very different in the standings. Losing Garcia thins a bullpen that has seen a lot of departures but on a team that's still coming together, the relief staff is often the last piece of the puzzle. Washington needed an everyday first baseman and Lowe is a perfect fit to be a complementary player to the Nationals' group of rising stars. -- Doolittle

Mets re-up with lefty Manaea on multiyear deal

The deal: Three years, $75 million
Grade: B

If Sean Manaea had signed this deal with another team, you'd be tempted to make a couple of critiques. First, you'd point out that the signing team was paying a soon-to-be 33-year-old lefty based on a career season. There is seemingly nowhere to go from there but down. And you'd point out that his addition cost the team draft assets since the Mets gave Manaea a qualifying offer.

Those critiques don't really matter here because the Mets are the one team for which you can overlook them. The qualifying offer is irrelevant now that Manaeua has re-upped with New York, and if any club has evidence that Manaea's 2024 dominance is sustainable, it would be them.

Manaea's overall season was in line with his career norms but it really took off down the stretch. Over his last 12 starts, he went 6-2 with a 3.09 ERA, allowed a .170 batting average, and went at least 6⅔ innings in 10 of those outings. Ordinarily you'd wag your finger at making a decision based on 12 starts but in this case, the production was at least in part to a real adjustment, as Manaea went to a new arm angle at that point. He carried that resurgence through three solid playoff starts before ending the season with a dud, getting hammered by the Dodgers in the NLCS clincher.

The contract is fine. Manaea's terms precisely match those Texas gave to Nathan Eovaldi and is in line with what the Something-Something Athletics gave to ex-Met Luis Severino. Besides, with the Mets, does the money even matter?

The Mets still need more starting pitching. Manaea rejoins a solid rotation that now features Frankie Montas playing the part of Severino, along with a hopefully-recovered Kodai Senga, reliever-turned-starter Clay Holmes and David Peterson. You never know what owner Steven Cohn is going to do but you figure that New York isn't a player for Corbin Burnes. If so, the rotation lacks a true ace but with some added depth, the Mets should be fine and can go big-game hunting at the trade deadline.

You do wonder if someone like Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander might still get a call. -- Doolittle

Diamondbacks acquire Naylor to replace Walker at first base

Arizona gets:
1B Josh Naylor

Cleveland gets:
RHP Slade Cecconi
Competitive Balance Round B draft pick

Diamondbacks grade: B+

After losing Christian Walker, the team's regular first baseman since 2019, to the Houston Astros in free agency, and seeing Paul Goldschmidt sign with the New York Yankees rather than return to Arizona, the Arizona Diamondbacks moved quickly and acquired Naylor, coming off a 31-homer, 108-RBI season with Cleveland.

It's a short-term play: Naylor is under control for just one season. And while Naylor isn't the same all-around player as Walker -- Walker is a Gold Glove first baseman while Naylor is an average-at-best defender and extremely slow on the bases -- he should replace Walker's production at the plate, helping keep the Diamondbacks near the top of the majors in runs scored (they led the majors in 2024).

Naylor's old-school stats overstate his offensive value just a bit as he hit .243/.320/.456 with a 118 wRC+ -- that's a little better than the MLB average at first base (.247/.322/.414). Walker hit .251/.335/.468 with a 119 wRC+. So based on 2024 stats, it's a wash, with the Diamondbacks getting the younger player, but losing value on defense and on the bases. There's the possibility Naylor has more in the tank if he can combine his 2023 batting average (.308) with his 2024 power. He's also coming off a career-high walk rate and is an excellent contact hitter (16.6% strikeout rate in 2024, 13.7% in 2023).

Overall, nice move here for Arizona without giving up much in return.

Guardians grade: D+

I get that the Cleveland Guardians have to keep the wheels churning -- trading a player before he reaches free agency to get younger, cheaper players in return -- but the obvious problem with doing that is it means you're never building the best possible team, even given Cleveland's self-imposed payroll limitations, choosing consistent long-term competitiveness over a team that might be able to win the World Series. With six playoff appearances in nine seasons since 2016 and only two losing seasons since 2013, the Guardians have certainly been very good at this, but trading Naylor probably means the Guardians are less likely to repeat their run to the ALCS -- or even something deeper.

Not that Naylor is a big star or anything -- he's not. And maybe Kyle Manzardo can fill his shoes at first base. He struggled as a rookie in 2024, hitting .234/.284/.421 in 156 plate appearances. His Steamer projection does forecast Naylor-like numbers: .240/.327/.440. It does weaken the Guardians at DH, however, as Naylor and Manzardo would have presumably taken up most of the combined at-bats at those two positions.

Cecconi is a former first-round pick who got his first extended stint in the majors in 2024, where he got hit very hard: 6.66 ERA, 92 hits and 16 home runs in 77 innings. Batters hit .329 and slugged .582 against his four-seamer, so while in theory he gives the Guardians a potential starting pitcher, he has a lot of improvement to do and perhaps projects as a reliever in the long-term. Naylor wasn't to bring back a huge return and even given Manzardo's potential, it's hard to see how this trade benefits Cleveland in 2025 - other than, of course, saving the estimated $12 million on Naylor's salary. -- Schoenfield

Phillies bolster rotation with trade for Luzardo

Philadelphia gets:
LHP Jesus Luzardo

Miami gets:
SS Starlyn Caba
OF Emaarion Boyd

Phillies grade: B+

With so many key players in their 30s and Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto heading to free agency, it's imperative the Phillies go all-in for 2025 -- and no executive is better at that than Dave Dombrowski. He has bolstered the team's depth this offseason with reliever Jordan Romano, outfielder Max Kepler (both on one-year contracts) and now a potential top-of-the-rotation starter in Luzardo who is under team control for two years.

Luzardo came close to reaching those heights in his best season in 2023, when he went 10-10 with a 3.58 ERA and 208 strikeouts in 178 innings for the Marlins. He rode a fastball that averaged 96.7 mph, making him the second-hardest-throwing lefty starter in the game. Injuries limited Luzardo to just 12 starts in 2024, however, as he battled left elbow tightness early on and then went down in June with a lumbar stress reaction that ended his season. He finished just 3-6 with a 5.00 ERA.

Obviously, the Phillies are hoping for a return to that 2023 level and wouldn't make the deal unless they had some confidence in Luzardo being ready for 2025. The health risk is the only reason not to give this an A grade, as I love the upside play here. While the Phillies weren't desperate for a starter after finishing eighth in the majors with a 3.81 rotation ERA in 2024, they did have a hole at the back of the rotation as guys like Taijuan Walker (7.10 ERA in 15 starts) and Tyler Phillips (6.87 ERA in seven starts) struggled as the fifth starter. The Phillies now project to have arguably the best rotation in the majors, and the upgrade with Luzardo could be a difference maker in what should be a three-team race with the Braves and Mets for the NL East title.

Marlins grade: C

It's hard to believe this was a playoff team just two years ago (and yes, it was a fluke thanks to a 33-14 record in one-run games). That roster has now been completely decimated. Key players Luis Arraez, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Jorge Soler, Bryan De La Cruz, Jake Burger, Tanner Scott, A.J. Puk and now Luzardo have all been traded away as the Marlins have torn this down to the studs, with the exception of a few remaining starting pitchers.

Caba is the key guy for Miami in this deal, and maybe in four or five years we look back and realize Peter Bendix fleeced Dombrowski in acquiring the talented shortstop who just turned 19. Caba was one of the Phillies' top prospects, viewed as one of the top players in the 2023 international class when he signed for $3 million. He's viewed as having a high floor because of his defensive ability -- he's a potential 80-grade defender -- but there's no way of knowing what he'll be as a hitter, as he currently possesses little ability to drive the ball.

In 78 games between rookie ball and Class A in 2024, Caba hit .228/.385/.284, including just .179 in 26 games at Class A Clearwater. On the positive side, he had more walks (67) than strikeouts (49), so the optimistic view is he turns into a high-contact hitter who sprays the ball around even if the power develops. Boyd was an 11th-round pick in 2022 who hit .238 with three home runs in high-A. He has elite speed and contact ability, but like Caba has no power right now.

There will be pressure for the Marlins to push Caba quickly -- not only to justify the deal, but with the knowledge that defense tends to peak early in a player's career. A best-case scenario is Caba turns into an Andrelton Simmons-type as a dominant defender who hits just enough to make him extremely valuable (indeed, Simmons averaged 5.2 WAR during his peak from 2013 to 2018). If Caba turns into something close to Simmons, it will be a great deal. But the bat has a long ways to go. -- Schoenfield

Yankees sign Goldschmidt to fill hole at first base

The deal: 1 year, $12.5 million

Grade: B

As they say, there's no such thing as a bad one-year contract, and I like the New York Yankees bringing in Paul Goldschmidt on a one-year deal at a very reasonable price -- even if it's for his age-37 season while coming off the worst year of his career. Goldschmidt completed his six-year run with the Cardinals hitting .245/.302/.414 with 22 home runs in 154 games, producing just 1.3 WAR. It was the lowest average, lowest on-base percentage and lowest slugging percentage of what has been a potential Hall of Fame career -- and all three by significant margins (other than hitting .250 in 48 games as a rookie). Still, even if Goldschmidt produces those same numbers, it's a significant upgrade at first base for the Yankees. Their first basemen hit just .216/.284/.335 with 16 home runs in 2024, the lowest OPS in the majors at the position and the worst OPS from Yankees first basemen since John Mayberry, Dave Collins & Co. hit .208 with a .597 OPS in 1982.

There are reasons, however, to expect Goldschmidt to bounce back some in 2025. His hard-hit rate ranked in the 92nd percentile, and his bat speed remained above average, at the 60th percentile. His expected batting average and slugging numbers based on the quality of his balls in play were .255 and .450. He was also much better in the second half (.799 OPS). At his age, there's obviously no guarantee he's better, and he has had to compensate in other areas, primarily being more aggressive (perhaps cheating to catch up to fastballs). He declined from 87 walks in 2023 to just 47 as his chase rate soared. So that's the big concern.

The other one is that Goldschmidt has played his entire career in the low-pressure environment of Arizona and the fan-friendly environment of St. Louis. New York is obviously a different beast, and while that attribute is often overrated, it's also a real thing -- heck, Yankees fans booed Aaron Judge last April during an 0-for-4 day. Goldschmidt is a quiet guy, and if he gets off to a slow start -- as he did last season -- Yankees fans won't hesitate to get on him.

In a sense, this completes the Juan Soto pivot. The Yankees signed Max Fried ($27.2 million average salary), traded for Cody Bellinger ($25 million in 2025) and now signed Goldschmidt ($12.5 million). They can play Bellinger in center field and move Judge to right, which upgrades the defense at two positions, and added a No. 1-quality starting pitcher. Depending how you calculate Soto's compensation, those three will make about the same amount ($64.7 million versus $61 million for Soto) and produced a similar WAR total (7.0 versus 7.9 for Soto).

Importantly, it also means the Yankees didn't get sucked into a potential bad deal with Christian Walker, who signed a three-year, $60 million deal with the Astros, or a long-term deal with Pete Alonso. Indeed, if there's a loser here, it's Alonso, who needed the Yankees bidding against the Mets to ramp up his price. With the Yankees out of the picture, who is there for the Mets to have to bid against, at least at the $150 million or so estimate? With other far less expensive first basemen in free agency (Carlos Santana, Justin Turner, Josh Bell) or perhaps available in trade (Josh Naylor, Nathaniel Lowe), Alonso might be down to the Mets and Nationals. I don't really see another fit out there. -- Schoenfield

Astros beef up at 1B with Walker signing

The deal: Three years, $60 million

Grade: C-

You have to be happy for Christian Walker who, through his age-27 season, had a .170 career batting average based on just 99 plate appearances. After coming up through the Orioles' system, he found himself on the DFA merry-go-round during spring training in 2017, when he bounced from Baltimore to Atlanta to Cincinnati and then finally to Arizona. After becoming a regular with the Diamondbacks in 2019, Walker established himself as a steady power bat/plus defender at first base, producing at a level well above his remuneration.

Now Walker gets his payday and he gets it from an Astros franchise trying to stay afloat as a prime contender just a little longer. Walker probably helps that cause -- though the 'probably qualifier in shouldn't be overlooked -- and Houston probably deserves plaudits for convincing Walker to accept one of what was reportedly several other three-year offers. This is likely the Astros' last big splash of the hot stove season, barring another foray over the lowest tax threshold, so a lot depends on this working out.

Walker will turn 34 next spring and those thinking of Houston's most recent first-base splash (Jose Abreu) are reasonable to do so. Walker is a bit younger than Abreu was when he signed with Houston and is less of a candidate to bottom out in the way Abreu did. However, this is still a case of appearing to be paying an older free agent based on what he has already done as opposed to what he is likely to do. Sure, other teams were apparently willing to do the same thing in what's a scarce market of remaining impact bats, but that doesn't change the reality.

The rest-of-career history for players of Walker's type and age is telling. The comparables listed for him at ClayDavenport.com and in the ZIPS system at Fangraphs include Eric Karros, Roy Sievers, Jeff King, Mitch Moreland, Eddie Robinson and Don Mincher. Let's consider what that sextet did in their age-34 to 36 seasons, matching what Walker just agreed to:

Average seasons: 2.5 (in other words, they didn't all make it through their age-36 campaign)

Game played%: 53.9% (Walker is coming off a 130-game season undermined by an oblique injury)

Combined slash: .248/.331/.426, with a composite 107 OPS+

Per-162 game averages: 19 homers, 74 RBI, 54 runs

Walker is on a run of three straight Gold Gloves, and that raises his floor, to be sure. But the Astros are trying to keep a championship window open in the wake of losing Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman (a reality that is now all but official with this move) and Justin Verlander. They have very little money left to spend without going back into the tax, and because Walker was given a qualifying offer by Arizona, the Astros now will surrender their second- and fifth-highest draft picks in the next draft, plus $1 million in international bonus pool money. They needed impact; this is more akin to treading water.

It would be an overkill to suggest this move doesn't move the needle at all from where Houston was yesterday, as Walker is a clear upgrade over whatever the Astros' in-house options were for first base (or third, if Isaac Paredes was the Plan B at first base). But the Astros have lost ground overall since the end of 2024 and it's not clear there is a great plan in place to prevent that little bit of skidding from turning into a landslide. Walker is too good to cause that landslide, but he's not the kind of player whose future is so bright that he can prevent it from happening. -- Bradford Doolittle

Red Sox add rotation depth with Sandoval

The deal: Two years, $18.25 million

Grade: C

A popular trend in recent years has been signing pitchers coming off Tommy John surgery to two-year contracts, hoping the pitcher can return late in the season in the first year and play a full season in the second year. By default, all the risk here falls on the team, but since that first season isn't guaranteed, there's even more pressure on the pitcher to deliver in the second year to earn back the contract.

That's the case with Patrick Sandoval, who will make $5.5 million in 2025 and then $12.75 million in 2026. Sandoval had his surgery in late June, so an optimistic timetable has him returning in the second half. The Los Angeles Angels, somewhat surprisingly, non-tendered him rather than pay him a projected salary of $5.9 million.

Sandoval had his best season in 2022, when he made 27 starts and posted a 2.91 ERA, allowing just eight home runs in 148.1 innings. Back then, Sandoval's fastball sat 93 and his changeup was known as one of the best in the game (despite that pitch, he has a conventional platoon split). The issue here is that Sandoval hadn't been able to sustain that success, even before his injury. Over the past two seasons, he posted a 4.45 ERA as his control deteriorated (4.4 walks per nine innings). The Red Sox have done a nice job working with pitchers who don't have dominant fastballs, and the key to Sandoval's future success is improving the walk rate and figuring out how he can get to that changeup against right-handed batters before they hit his fastball.

The Red Sox probably view this as a way to get a potential mid-tier starting pitcher at an average of $9 million per season, and given the price of starting pitching this offseason, that's a great deal if Sandoval finds his 2022 form. But that's also the only time Sandoval has pitched at that level. The more likely scenario is a No. 4/5 starter, which makes you wonder if that $18 million would have been better spent on more of a sure thing or putting that money towards Corbin Burnes. But you have to sign what you can get and the Red Sox are at least stockpiling rotation options, a group that now includes Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Bryan Bello, Cooper Criswell and Richard Fitts, with Lucas Giolito and Sandoval returning from Tommy John surgery. Garrett Whitlock is also returning from an internal brace procedure and could fit into the mix. -- David Schoenfield

Phillies tab Kepler to fill outfield hole

The deal: 1 year, $10 million

Grade: C

More than in previous years, I've been trying to internalize the idea of a C grade being the baseline value for accessing a transaction. This deal is neither here nor there. A team had a need and acquired a player who is likely to address that need and provide adequate value for what he will be paid. There's no great hope for added upside, nor any great fear for the bottom dropping out. We tend to be a little over a C in the end of each grading season on average. I'm not sure why that is.

This is a classic C, and it likely says more about what the Phillies aren't going to do than that what they are going to do. Philadelphia finished 15th in left-field OPS last season (.710) and 11th in right (.761), while favoring defense in center, where they landed 20th (.644). Max Kepler has a composite .726 OPS over the past three seasons while playing almost exclusively in right field. His addition likely pushes Nick Castellanos (.744 OPS over the past three seasons) into left field, or at least that seems like the play here, as Kepler's arm metrics are much stronger.

Kepler's arrival displaces the hodgepodge the Phillies deployed in left, though it's unclear whether that amalgamation was or will be any less productive. His overall defensive metrics have been plus and that in itself might be enough of an upgrade. Given a one-year, $10 million price tag, all Kepler has to do is be around league average to earn his keep.

The Phillies might want a lefty-mashing outfielder around to balance Kepler, though it's unclear if he has much of a platoon differential anymore. His career numbers are certainly weaker against southpaws, but last year he was actually better against them percentagewise, admittedly in a small sample, and it's not the first time that has happened. It's probably more a matter of pitch type and shape than pitcher handedness. He has also been injured a lot, so you'll want fourth and fifth outfield options who can contribute.

The move is fine. Kepler is productive when healthy and while I don't see a ton of upside here, it's going to come down to his health. That the Phillies landed on him means they apparently aren't pursuing a multiyear option such as Anthony Santander or Teoscar Hernandez, which isn't surprising considering the Phillies' current payroll level. So, really, it's about picking through the one-year corner outfield options. When you look through that list, you have to think the Phillies tabbed the right guy at the right price. -- Doolittle

Yankees acquire former NL MVP Bellinger from Cubs

New York gets:
OF/1B Cody Bellinger

Chicago gets:
RHP Cody Poteet

Yankees grade: B

Cody Bellinger is a good player. He was a great player in 2019, when he won National League MVP honors with the Dodgers. He was better than good for the Cubs in 2023, when he hit .307 with 26 home runs and 97 RBIs and finished 10th in the NL MVP voting. He projects as a good player in 2025, similar to the player he was in 2024: .266/.325/.426, 18 home runs in 130 games, 2.2 WAR. In other words: He's only part of a replacement plan for Juan Soto, as Bellinger is about a 5- to 6-win decline in a head-to-head comparison with what Soto contributed this past season.

Bellinger's defensive versatility has been a plus throughout his career, but the Yankees say he'll be their center fielder in 2025. That makes sense. It allows them to move Aaron Judge back to right field. The reports on Jasson Dominguez's defense in center are that he's a little shaky out there (and he was bad in the few innings he played in left field for the Yankees) and it frees the Yankees to pursue another first baseman such as Christian Walker or a lesser free agent option such as Carlos Santana.

Is Bellinger likely to improve at the plate in 2025? As a pull hitter, sure, he might pop a few extra home runs into the short porch at Yankee Stadium, but everything in his batted-ball metrics suggested his 2023 numbers were a bit of a fluke and he predictably regressed in 2024. His hard-hit rate (15th percentile) and bat speed (13th percentile) aren't the figures of a power hitter. Indeed, his best attribute these days is a high contact rate. He might run into 25 home runs if everything goes right, and the Yankees needed another left-handed bat to help replace Soto, but in a good lineup, Bellinger is more of a No. 6 hitter. On the Yankees, at least at the moment, he's probably their No. 2 or 3 hitter, depending on where Aaron Boone wants Judge to hit in the lineup.

Bellinger makes $27.5 million in 2025 and has a $25 million player option for 2026, with the Cubs paying down $2.5 million each year. The Yankees didn't give up much, which tells you Bellinger was really worth only his salary and didn't have much additional value. Still, the Yankees needed a hitter, and Bellinger should help in 2025. Now, let's see what else they do to augment the lineup.

Cubs grade: D

Bellinger's name has been on the rumor block since he exercised his player option. After acquiring Kyle Tucker, it became fait accompli that he would be traded, with the team committed to defensive wizard Pete Crow-Armstrong in center field, Michael Busch at first base and now Tucker in right field (with Seiya Suzuki locked into DH duties). With Isaac Paredes going to Houston in the Tucker trade, it also opens up third base for rookie Matt Shaw.

All of that is fine, and Tucker gives them the star hitter they've lacked since peak Kris Bryant/Anthony Rizzo, but there's no other way to couch this: This is a salary dump from a presumed big-market organization that continues to pinch pennies on the side. Trading Bellinger certainly hurts the depth and flexibility of the roster and puts a lot of pressure on Crow-Armstrong to hit (88 OPS+ last year, with a hot month in August pumping up the numbers) and Busch to perform again (and he had a so-so .732 OPS after a hot start when he homered six times in his first 15 games). The Cubs have other young outfield options in Alexander Canario, Kevin Alcantara and Owen Caissie, so I can see where they felt Bellinger wasn't needed.

Poteet has some potential value. He's a 30-year-old righty with 83 innings across three seasons in the majors. Returning from Tommy John surgery, he made 13 starts in Triple-A and then four with the Yankees and he was reasonably productive, although he lacks big strikeout stuff. His fastball sits at 93 mph while his changeup has been his most effective pitch throughout his career. He'll be in the mix for a back-of-the-rotation/long-reliever role as the Cubs continue to add as many rotation options as possible. He's a reasonable pickup, but we'll stick to this grade unless the Cubs reinvest that $25 million elsewhere (i.e. a frontline starter/high-leverage reliever). -- Schoenfield

A's acquire left-hander Springs from Rays

A's get:
LHP Jeffrey Springs

Tampa Bay gets:
RHP Joe Boyle
RHP Jacob Watters
OF Will Simpson
2025 competitive Balance A round draft pick

A's grade: B+

Could the A's be turning into an actual sleeper team in the AL West? The A's have now added a second starting pitcher after signing Luis Severino as a free agent, two additions that certainly address one of the club's biggest weaknesses in 2024, when the A's ranked 26th in the majors with a 4.76 ERA from their starters. With the Astros trading Kyle Tucker and perhaps losing Alex Bregman in free agency, Houston might be taking a step back; the Mariners haven't done anything; the Rangers are coming off a losing season. After going 39-37 the final three months of 2024, the A's might be dreaming of a Royals-like surprise.

The key in this deal will be getting Springs back to his 2022 level, when he had a breakout season with a sparkling 2.46 ERA and 3.8 WAR in 25 starts/135 innings. A reliever up to that point in the majors, Springs utilized a three-pitch mix (four-seamer, changeup, slider), generating enough swing-and-miss with the fastball despite below-average velocity (91.4 mph). He underwent Tommy John surgery after three starts in 2023 and returned late July in 2024 to make seven solid starts before sitting down in September with elbow fatigue. His velocity was also down to 89.8 mph, generating less swing-and-miss, so that's enough for more to downgrade the grade here just a bit even though Springs is under team control for at least two more seasons (at $10.5 million per season) with a $15 million club option for 2027.

In general, the A's knew they needed to upgrade the rotation and I like that they're trying to compete rather than, say, trading away Brent Rooker and Mason Miller. Indeed, the A's are even in talks to sign Rooker to an extension. But Severino and Springs are both risks, not just for health but even for performance. (The A's gave Severino the biggest free-agent deal in franchise history when he was coming off 1.6-WAR season and his first healthy year since 2018.) Still, if Rooker repeats, Lawrence Butler keeps hitting like he did in the second half and the A's find some offense in the infield, they could be interesting.

Rays grade: B+

While the A's are shockingly adding payroll, the Rays are -- not surprisingly -- cutting it. Indeed, the biggest check the Rays will be signing in 2025 will be the $15 million payment to the Yankees for use of George Streinbrenner Field in Tampa. Brandon Lowe ($10 million salary with 2026 club option) and Yandy Diaz ($10 million with 2026 club option) could be next to go.

Despite Springs' years of team control -- not all that different from Garrett Crochet -- this trade brings nowhere near the kind of return Crochet brought the White Sox. Indeed, the best part of the deal might be the compensation pick, which right now slots in as the 34th pick in the draft (it could drop to 37th). Boyle is a hard-throwing right-hander with a big fastball and no control -- 40 walks in 47.2 innings with the A's, leading to a 6.42 ERA. The Rays have had success with bullpen arms, so maybe they can get Boyle to throw strikes. Watters was a fourth-round pick in 2022 who pitched in Class A in 2024, posting a 5.04 ERA. Simpson hit .282/.378/.482 between Class A and Double-A. It feels like a light return, with only Boyle having any expectations of helping the Rays in 2025. It's a cost-cutting measure for a pitcher with injury risk, which is understandable given the Rays' circumstances for 2025 (and beyond, given their ballpark issues). They'll need Shane McClanahan and Shane Baz to return from injuries to give the rotation any depth. -- Schoenfield

Cubs land Tucker from Astros in blockbuster deal

Chicago gets:
RF Kyle Tucker

Houston gets: 3B/1B Isaac Paredes
3B Cam Smith
RHP Hayden Wesneski

Cubs grade: B-

Grading trades can be a fraught enterprise at times because you usually have to rate a deal in black and white, at the moment you assess it. Even more so than free agent signings, trades often occur as part of multiple related moves. This swap in particular seems to portend more maneuvering for both teams involved.

For the Cubs, the addition of Tucker means that rumors of a looming Cody Bellinger deal are going to echo that much more loudly. It's not that you can't wedge Tucker and Bellinger onto the same roster. It just seems unlikely that is the Cubs' plan when they have Pete Crow-Armstrong ready to claim Bellinger's center-field spot. Plus there is Seiya Suzuki, who now looks like a full-time DH (unless he's traded as well or instead of Bellinger) and Michael Busch and Ian Happ ... the Cubs could make it all work, but they surely see Tucker and Bellinger as redundant.

Still, the first measure you want to make is between Tucker and Bellinger, because acquiring the former and then moving the latter means we're talking marginal gains, if there are gains. Well, there are gains.

Over the past three seasons, Tucker sports a .878 OPS and 145 OPS+ to Bellinger's .762 and 111. He's also a year younger and has one less year of team control. All the Cubs can really count on with Tucker is having him for the 2025 season but, then again, if Bellinger stays and delivers a Tucker-level season, he could also opt out of his deal anyway, as would be his option.

Bellinger has generally rotated between center, right and first base with Chicago and is generally adept at them all. Tucker has been exclusively a right fielder and a very good one, winning a Gold Glove and logging a plus-32 DRS over the past four seasons. He's just a better player than Bellinger and more consistent, worth between two and three wins in marginal value.

Again: This assumes Bellinger is dealt and therefore considers the Cubs' return there in tandem with this swap.

The Cubs are giving up a lot of value to obtain just one for-sure season of their new lineup anchor. I have docked them for it in the grade you see above, but my assumption is that after some ho-hum seasons stuck in the middle, the Cubs are making a major push for 2025. Landing Tucker aids that cause considerably, similar to how Juan Soto's one-sure season for the Yankees was a catalyst in getting them back to the World Series.

Thus I like this move for the Cubs. I like it a lot. Even if Tucker walks after 2025, they have the prospect base to account for that. In the meantime, they now have a golden opportunity to convince Tucker to sign on for the long term. The balance-sheet disparity in terms of relative trade values suggests to me they plan to go after Tucker for more than 2025. It's a risk but sometimes you just have to roll the dice.

Most Cubs fans won't mourn the departure of Paredes, who struggled terribly on both sides of the ball after being acquired from the Rays last season. That's not why the Cubs moved him, of course, as he's in the second of what will be four seasons of arbitration eligibility. That's a lot of team control. He has generally been an above-average hitter with a dependable combination of isolated power and walks as his foundation. He's no great shakes with the glove but can play either corner-infield spot.

Smith was the 14th pick in last June's draft, taken by the Cubs out of Florida State, and he's a legit prospect. Baseball America ranks Smith as Chicago's sixth-best prospect in their most recent update and he did little during his brief pro debut to quell enthusiasm, quickly climbing all the way to Double-A. Over 32 games, he hit .313/.396/.696 with seven homers. Questions about his glovework at third base could mean an eventual shift down the defensive spectrum, however.

Of note: One of the Cubs' top prospects, Matt Shaw, is a third baseman, and he might be ready to assume the reins at the position as soon as spring training. Even if that timeline is aggressive, the Cubs can expect him sooner than later.

Yes, Tucker is hitting his walk year and is going to get paid. The Cubs are now on the clock to become the team that pays him. He's a star-level hitter, defender and baserunner in his prime, a four-to-six-WAR stalwart who can be a cornerstone player for seasons to come. Now is a good time to make him feel wanted. The Cubs do have some highly rated corner outfield prospects (Kevin Alcantara, Owen Caissie, et al). Give me Tucker, and if I can extend him, there is a lot I can still do with those young bats.

In the meantime, as we wait to see if more deals follow, this move adds a couple of wins to the Cubs' baseline on the same day division-rival Milwaukee traded star closer Devin Williams to the Yankees. Chicago held a narrow lead in my nascent 2025 forecast for the NL Central, and that lead has now expanded.

With a couple more moves, the Cubs should enter next season as the favorite in a division that remains close from top to bottom. That's what happens when you add MVP-caliber producers.

Astros grade: C+

You don't have to be Sherlock Holmes to assume that this deal means the end of Alex Bregman's time in Houston. Paredes looks like his near-term replacement, with Smith perhaps following suit down the line. Yes, there's a possibility that Houston retains Bregman and Paredes becomes the first baseman the Astros need. Even if that were to happen, though, the cost of losing Tucker is just too much to bear.

For me, this is really about 2025, because on an Astros team with a narrowing window of contention, they need to be valuing the near term in advance of an eventual reset. The minor league system is in need of a major restocking. Meanwhile, the eroding big league roster is anchored by a Hall of Famer in Jose Altuve who is reaching his mid-30s, and a devastating hitter in Yordan Alvarez who has bad knees. One by one, the greats of the dying Astros dynasty are departing.

There is no combination of moves the Astros are likely to make from here that will strengthen their outlook for 2025 in the wake of dual departures by Bregman (most likely) and Tucker (gone). I still have Houston as slight favorites in the AL West, but their margin for error is gone, and their competitors are still adding.

Trade models do sign off on this swap for the Astros because of the combined 10 controllable seasons Houston is obtaining for a walk-year player in Tucker. In fact, the machine at Baseball Trade Values flat out rejected it because the Cubs' return was too light. I get that and can't refute the math. That's why I give a decent grade to a move I wouldn't have made.

Why wouldn't I have made it? You can't really project championship probability, and that's where I think the Astros have suffered the most, because their most likely championship season in the near future is 2025, and that season is taking a hit here. It's also where the Cubs have gained the most.

Smith is a long-term solution, especially if his third base defense improves, and it'll be interesting to see what Wesneski does in the Houston pitching program.

Paredes is a serviceable player, but a step down from Bregman with both the bat and the glove. He's also five years younger, so it is reasonable to wonder if that gap will persist much longer. In terms of marginal value, he's going to be considerably more cost-efficient than Bregman, and that's without knowing the latter's eventual contract. That's really what this comes down to, though: The Astros have been carrying large payrolls, and it could simply be time to become more efficient in the accounting department.

If so, that's understandable, but it's not a championship formula. Not in the short term, where the focus ought to be right now in Houston. -- Doolittle

Yankees acquire All-Star closer Williams from Brewers

New York gets:
RHP Devin Williams

Milwaukee gets:
LHP Nestor Cortes
INF Caleb Durbin

Yankees grade: A

After signing Max Fried to an eight-year, $218 million contract and losing reliever Clay Holmes to the Mets, the Yankees had a relative surplus of starting pitchers and a lack of depth in their late-game bullpen, so flipping a solid starter in Cortes for maybe the best closer in the game aligns perfectly with their needs. Both players are in their final year before free agency and projected to make similar $7.7 million salaries in arbitration, so the Yankees threw in a little cash and a prospect to entice the Brewers to swing the trade.

It wouldn't be an exaggeration to say Williams is the best closer in the game. Since his Rookie of the Year season in 2020, he has a 1.70 ERA, first working primarily as a setup man to Josh Hader and then taking over as closer. He missed the first four months of 2024 with a stress fracture in his back but was good as ever when he returned -- at least until the playoffs, when the Mets scored four runs off him in the ninth inning of the deciding game of the wild-card series (including the memorable Pete Alonso home run).

Williams' go-to pitch is his "Airbender" -- an almost unhittable changeup with screwball-like action. Batters have hit just .135 off it in Williams' career, although Alonso did hit a changeup for his series-winning home run.

The Yankees did have Luke Weaver as their closer in the postseason, and he's coming off an outstanding first full season as a reliever. Moving Weaver back into the setup role he had for most of the regular season is fine, since he showed he's more than capable of handling longer stints out of the pen as a former starter. A Weaver-Williams combo certainly projects as one of the top late-game duos in the majors, although the Yankees probably still need another depth reliever or two, especially from the left side.

Brewers grade: B+

With Williams heading toward free agency, the Brewers learned their lesson from trading Hader in midseason in 2022, a move that backfired when the Brewers went from first place at the time of the trade to missing the playoffs. Trading Williams now relieves the pressure of perhaps trading him during the season -- when the Brewers might once again be in the playoff race.

Two things here: First, few organizations are better at building bullpens and finding relievers than the Brewers. That's what they're banking on here. Since 2018, when they made the playoffs to kick off a run of six postseason appearances over the past seven seasons, the Brewers are a solid seventh in the majors in bullpen ERA (and first in bullpen win probability added). Now they'll have to do it without Hader or Williams. Trevor Megill, who picked up 21 saves in Williams' absence last season, is next in line and he's fine: 2.72 ERA, 50 strikeouts in 46⅓ innings pitched, .555 OPS allowed.

Second, while it's a mild surprise the Brewers traded for Cortes rather than a younger player with more years of team control, I like that it means they're hardly desiring a step back in 2024, even after losing Willy Adames and trading Williams. They had a hole in the rotation after non-tendering Colin Rea, who made 27 starts with a 4.29 ERA. Cortes might be viewed as a minor upgrade (2.6 WAR in 2024 versus 1.2 for Rea), although he did miss the last couple of weeks and the first two rounds of the playoffs with a flexor strain (only to return in the World Series and serve up that game-losing grand slam to Freddie Freeman). Cortes also moves away from Yankee Stadium, where he had a 3.11 ERA compared to 4.46 on the road.

Durbin isn't regarded as a top prospect, but he's interesting enough that the Yankees did add him to their 40-man roster. He hit .287/.396/.471 at Triple-A with more walks than strikeouts and 29 steals in 32 attempts. He played all three infield positions, so he fits into that picture alongside Brice Turang and Joey Ortiz. If I'm the Brewers, I'd leave Turang at second base, where he just won the Platinum Glove as the best overall defender in the National League, play Ortiz at shortstop and give Durbin the opportunity to fit into the third-base mix. He's not going to provide much power, but he will grind at-bats and steal some bases. -- Schoenfield

Red Sox land White Sox ace Crochet

Boston gets:
LHP Garrett Crochet

Chicago gets:
C Kyle Teel
OF Braden Montgomery
INF Chase Meidroth
RHP Wikelman Gonzalez

Red Sox grade: B+

Let's spin this trade in the best possible light: The Red Sox just obtained a potential 2025 and/or 2026 Cy Young winner without giving up any of their core big league contributors or one of their top three prospects. If Crochet becomes the full version of what he flashed in 2024, no one is going to question this trade.

Yet, the possible range of outcomes for this move is wide because, for one thing, we've only seen Crochet sparkle as a starter for one season and, even then, it was for only 146 innings. And Crochet has an ugly history of injury, one that left him with just 73 big league innings entering last season. Despite that low innings count, Crochet has accrued more than four years of big league service time, meaning he hits free agency after 2026, barring an extension before then. A lot of risk and a lot of prospect value for two controllable seasons.

I still think it was worth it.

As for those 146 frames in 2024, curious about that figure in tandem with Crochet's total of 32 starts, I hit the Stathead tools at Baseball Reference and came up with this: In the history of major league baseball, including all leagues dating back to 1871, there have been 4,325 instances in which a pitcher has started at least 32 games in a season. Garrett Crochet's 146 innings pitched in 2024 was the fewest of any of them. You can look at that in two ways.

The "it's a bug" perspective says that Boston just unloaded four talented minor leaguers for an ace who has never functioned as a true ace in the majors. That's if you define "true ace" as someone who combines elite run prevention with stamina at the game level and durability at the season level.

The "it's a feature" perspective sees Crochet's per-inning dominance in 2024 (35.1% strikeout rate and 2.69 FIP while pitching for the most futile baseball club in the modern history of the sport) as the key here. Because the innings part of it was very much contrived. The White Sox started yanking Crochet after two times through the order or before, beginning in early July. Otherwise, he was on track for an ace-like level of workload.

From the start of the season through the end of June, Crochet averaged 22.1 batters faced over 18 starts. After that, he averaged 14 batters faced over his last 14 outings. He didn't wear down; the White Sox slapped a governor on him. Crochet has built himself up since the time he reached the majors and has the look of someone with seasons of 180-200 innings in his future.

Yes, the injuries are a concern, but show me a pitcher where that's not the case. With his free agency on the horizon, Crochet has a lot to prove in the meantime. The history of White Sox lefties flourishing in Boston is a rich one (yeah, we're talking Chris Sale here), and if Crochet stays healthy, Boston has the rotation ace it badly needed.

The grade above reflects my belief that although the risks in the deal are considerable, the upside is easily worth it. This is a deal any of Boston's competitors would have loved to swing.

White Sox grade: B+

Crochet, as dazzling as he was when he was actually allowed to take the mound in 2024, did not align with Chicago's long-term trajectory. With him an obvious health risk, those mere two controllable seasons meant he'd be hitting free agency (barring a risky extension) at a time when the White Sox might be only just beginning to crawl out of the 121-loss hole they tumbled into last season. The time was right to capitalize on his 2024 breakout.

Thus, the decision to move Crochet was pretty clear and has been for months. The question then comes down to the return, both in terms of the players Chris Getz landed and the players he might have gotten for one of the most valuable players who will move this winter.

Taking the latter first: We don't know! Maybe this was the best package the White Sox could piece together. However, just in terms of the Boston prospect list, if it backed off of Teel, could Marcel Mayer have been in play? Let's assume Roman Anthony was off the table, could Kristian Campbell have been the centerpiece of the deal? The Red Sox are surely thrilled that none of that happened.

As it is, Chicago's return on this is solid from a value-for-value standpoint. Baseball Trade Values has the trade rated as about even, and that sounds about right. But with an impact talent like Crochet, you have a chance to create surplus value, and it's unclear whether Chicago has done so with this deal. Of course, a lot of that perspective is based on prospect analysis, an uncertain science at best, and this will be a key test of the evaluative prowess of Getz's young regime.

Teel immediately becomes the White Sox's catcher of the future, bumping Edgar Quero from that perch -- but not emphatically. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel describes Teel as "an above-average defender with 20-homer upside and a solid approach" and as "more a good regular at a premium position than a star." A lefty swinger, Teel is a good fit long term in tandem with Quero, whose grades are better with the bat than on defense. Quero is a switch-hitter whose percentages the past two years in the minors have been much better against southpaws. This young duo should complement each other well, perhaps as soon as this coming season.

If Teel isn't the kind of star-in-progress you'd want for a player like Crochet, then perhaps Montgomery is. A broken ankle kept Montgomery from making his pro debut after being taken 12th overall last June out of Texas A&M and might have cost him a few slots in the draft. Toolsy as they come, Montgomery has an 80-grade arm, per McDaniel, that will play well in right field. He has a chance for a plus power-patience combo, but his ability to get the bat on the ball better than he has shown so far will determine his destiny.

Meidroth is a potential glue player with positional versatility and features excellent bat-on-ball skills and approach at the plate. His raw tools are mediocre, per McDaniel, and his upside is limited by a lack of power. Gonzalez has attributes as a starter -- stuff and stamina -- but his control and command very much remain works in progress even though he's now a 40-man roster player. Chances are he'll start off in the majors as a reliever with some leverage upside and, if he can smooth out the rough edges, perhaps can be a rotation candidate down the line.

It's a solid haul. It is a good enough haul? That entirely depends on whether one or two of these four prospects ascend to All-Star status ... and whether we find out if one of Boston's young stars-in-waiting was there to be had. -- Doolittle

Rangers add jolt with addition of Burger

Texas gets:
DH/INF Jake Burger

Miami gets:
INF Echedry Vargas
INF Max Acosta
LHP Brayan Mendoza

Rangers grade: B+

The Rangers filled an every-day lineup slot with a player who has a projectable track record and four controllable seasons left. They dealt three expendable prospects, and while doing so always carries the possibility of looking bad years down the line, Burger offers a lot more certainty than any of them, or even all of them together.

Burger is a masher who can be counted on for at least 25 to 30 homers if he plays every day and is likely to push into the mid-30s at some point in his career. He rates in the 84th percentile or better at Statcast in measures such as exit velocity, barrel rate and bat speed. In other words, he hits the ball hard.

That said, Burger is a pretty undisciplined hitter with poor chase rates and a walk rate that should be better than it's been. That's both a worry and an opportunity for the Rangers, because such players always have a little untapped upside. Even better: With just over two years of service time on his ticker, Burger has one more pre-arbitration season and his entire arbitration window ahead of him.

Barring further trades, such as one involving Nathaniel Lowe, who is nearing the end of his arbitration window, Texas should field a more or less set lineup when healthy. Burger slots in as an everyday DH and his power stick will carry more value in that role, as his overall WAR won't be dragged down by his poor defensive metrics. (And that's the case even though moving to full-time DH is a hit on positional value.)

Burger doesn't have anything in the way of a platoon differential, but neither does Lowe, so any notions of a first base platoon probably should be forgotten. But Burger can fill in for Lowe when needed and offers some additional depth at third, where Josh Jung has dealt with so many injuries.

The Rangers' offense is one of the most likely bounce-back stories as we look ahead to 2025, and that group was only an every-day DH away from being a complete set. Now, Texas is complete, especially because the bench looks strong as well, and the Rangers can turn their full attention to solidifying their pitching staff.

Marlins grade: C+

The Marlins might not have received a prospect in this deal who will ever produce as much value as Burger has already as a big leaguer, but you can understand their rationale. Burger was the Marlins' top power hitter, an observation that could be construed as damning with faint praise, but he was far from a foundational player for them.

For the Marlins, the deal creates right-now opportunities for a clutch of near-ready young players who might have been blocked or hindered by Burger's ongoing presence. We're talking about players such as Connor Norby, Deyvison De Los Santos, Graham Pauley and Nathan Martorella, all of whom could see reps on the infield corners and DH in 2025. Miami also has Jonah Bride as a stopgap in that rotation. He's a little farther up the age ladder than the others but in 2024, at least, Bride was a better hitter than Burger and offers more defensive utility.

As for the prospects, the valuation is fine even though Burger has so many controllable seasons remaining. Acosta is probably the name to remember from this group, at least initially. His pro career got off to a slow start because of the pandemic and early injuries, but he's been coming on. His showing in the most recent Arizona Fall League season garnered some notice and the Rangers added him to the 40-man roster in advance of the upcoming Rule 5 draft. Chances are, he'll see Miami by the end of the season and he joins a small group of Marlins infield prospects in a similar age range.

Vargas and Mendoza have only reached Low-A so far and thus are a few years away. Vargas is the higher rated of the two as a middle infield/utility prospect who generates a lot of hard contact that will be undermined if he doesn't iron out a slew of plate discipline issues. Mendoza is a bit off the radar, which suggests unexciting tools. He's been productive as a starter, where's he pitched so far, and while he will have to win over support at each level he reaches, you never know. -- Doolittle

Rangers retain Eovaldi on three-year deal

The deal: 3 years, $75 million
Grade: C+

The pitching market is scalding. A short time after the Yankees agreed to a record deal with lefty Max Fried (eight years, $218 million), the Rangers re-upped with righty Nathan Eovaldi to the tune of three years at $25 million per annum.

Both deals exceeded expectations. However, they are obviously contracts signed at very different levels in terms of duration and total value. Over the past three years, Eovaldi's 6.9 bWAR pales in comparison to Fried's 12.1, but at a commitment of just over a third in contract value, the marginal difference is negligible.

Once Fried latched onto the Yankees, Eovaldi remained among a tier of free agent starters with similar recent performance profiles. But Eovaldi was the oldest of the bunch, and since his recent health history is less than pristine, you had to think he was just one of a muddle of veterans that included Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea and Nick Pivetta.

On a tier by himself above this group is Corbin Burnes, but the Rangers arguably didn't need to enter that exclusive bidding club with Eovaldi returning as a veteran anchor to an old/young rotation that also includes Jacob deGrom, Jon Gray, Tyler Mahle and Cody Bradford. With Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter soon to be ready to supplant some of those arms, Texas has depth and dynamism alike -- given good health.

Alas, good health is something that has eluded Eovaldi during a career that spans back to 2011, a 13-year period (he didn't pitch in the majors in 2017) during which he has reached 30 starts just twice. He has qualified for an ERA title just three times, but one of those was the season just completed.

You certainly can understand the Rangers' comfort level with Eovaldi, and his return shores up a rotation depth chart on which he was just one of a number of free agents.

The three years isn't that big a deal, either, but $75 million in total value? That's quite a chunk given contract projections entering the free agent period. (ESPN's Kiley McDaniel had Eovaldi projected at two years, $45 million.) Paying like this appears to simply be what you have to do to land any starting pitcher who might move the needle for a team or, in the case of the Rangers, keep the needle from spinning in the wrong direction, since they had Eovaldi on hand in 2024.

But there also is a possible opportunity cost for the Rangers, who might be trying to navigate the tax line; however, if Eovaldi's contract is this much, expect the same for the contracts of the others on his level.

It feels like an overpay. But it also feels like an overpay based on market forces and not because of recklessness on the part of the Rangers. This is a team that can bounce back into contention in 2025, and it needed a veteran in the rotation to aid that cause.

Eovaldi, whom they know well, fit that bill. -- Doolittle

Blue Jays acquire Gold Glover Gimenez from Guardians

Toronto gets:
2B Andres Gimenez
RHP Nick Sandlin

Cleveland gets:
1B/2B Spencer Horwitz*
OF Nick Mitchell

Blue Jays grade: B+

The Blue Jays strike with a significant winter meetings trade -- and one pretty much out of nowhere considering they had several internal options on the roster to play second base in Horwitz, Will Wagner and Orelvis Martinez. Those three aren't natural second basemen, however, and certainly aren't in the same area code defensively as Gimenez, who has won three straight Gold Gloves and earned the Platinum Glove in 2023 as the American League's top overall defensive player.

Gimenez's value rests to a large degree on that D: +17 DRS in 2022, +23 in 2023 and +20 in 2024. Via DRS, only new Blue Jays teammate Daulton Varsho has more defensive runs saved over the past three seasons than Gimenez -- which means, yes, the Blue Jays arguably have the two best defenders in the majors. Toronto pitchers are smiling right now, no doubt. The Statcast metrics and the eye test back up that assessment. Gimenez is a natural shortstop with extraordinary range and an above-average arm.

His offense is another matter. When the Guardians signed Gimenez to a seven-year, $106.5 million extension in spring training of 2023, they were betting on his offensive breakout at age 23 in 2022, when he hit .297/.371/.466 with 17 home runs, 7.4 WAR and a sixth-place finish in the MVP voting. He had middling exit velocity numbers, however, and he has regressed the past two seasons, going from 25 batting runs above average in 2022 to minus-1 in 2023 to minus-13 in 2024 (his hard-hit rate ranked in just the eighth percentile).

Still, even given the below-average offense, Gimenez was a valuable player this past season with 4.0 WAR. While he is signed through 2029 (with a club option for 2030), the hitch is that he's now getting expensive: $10.5 million salary in 2025, $15.5 in 2026 then $23.5 million from 2027 to 2029. That gets a little hefty for a glove-first player, but it's still reasonable. And in lieu of missing out on Shohei Ohtani last year and Juan Soto this year, maybe the Jays are viewing this as an alternative path to success: pitching and defense. At this point, I'd love to see them double down on that approach and trade for Nolan Arenado to play third or Cody Bellinger for the outfield.

One added bonus: If Bo Bichette leaves as a free agent after 2025, Gimenez certainly has the range and enough arm to move to shortstop. Sandlin is a useful bullpen arm, but after allowing 24 home runs the past two seasons, he isn't really a high-leverage guy. The Jays still need to add more depth there.

Guardians grade: C

With every Cleveland move, you have to factor in the money. Gimenez made just $5.5 million in 2024, so it's no surprise he was on the block given the years and rising salaries left on his deal. Did they get enough in return? Horwitz, who is still pre-arbitration for two more years, had his first extended time in the majors and produced some nice numbers: .265/.357/.433 with 12 home runs in 328 at-bats. He has hit and plate discipline over power with a nice left-handed swing (28th percentile hard-hit rate) and is a late bloomer, already age 27 (older than Gimenez). Horwitz's strength is going to be getting on base: Maybe the Guardians bat him second behind Steven Kwan and in front of Jose Ramirez, giving Cleveland two solid table setters in front of Ramirez.

The question is where Horwitz will play. The Jays kind of forced him into second base even though he had played just 18 games there in the minors. He is more of a first baseman and has played some outfield. Given the Guardians' emphasis on defense, it seems unlikely they'd play him at second base. They also have two first basemen, however, in Josh Naylor and Kyle Manzardo. Given this is Naylor's final year before free agency, it's possible he is next to go.

In the end, Horwitz is kind of your classic tweener, although I could see him carving out a Mark Canha-type career. He is a solid, useful player, but I think he's a downgrade from Gimenez's all-around game. And if it leads to a Naylor trade, it's possible the Guardians end up taking a step back in 2025.

Meanwhile, Mitchell was a fourth-round pick in 2024 out of Indiana, where he hit .335 with just five home runs, although he hit well in 22 games at Single-A Dunedin (.289/.350/.467). -- Schoenfield

* UPDATE: Later in the day, the Blue Jays traded Horwitz to the Pittsburgh Pirates for right-hander Luis Ortiz and left-handers Michael Kennedy and Josh Hartle.

Yankees ink lefty Fried to boost rotation

The deal: 8 years, $218 million
Grade: C+

Ah, it's good to be young and a starting pitcher, especially if you're a free agent in the wake of baseball's most valuable franchise getting spurned by its primary offseason target.

The New York Yankees' Plan B started to take shape on Tuesday when they reached an agreement with Max Fried on an eight-year, $218 million deal that is the largest guarantee in baseball history for a left-handed pitcher.

Fried was the seventh-ranked free agent by ESPN's Kiley McDaniel but second among starting pitchers. The only hurler ahead of him was righty Corbin Burnes, who might still be a target for the Yankees given this outburst of aggression, as you have to figure that none of the top remaining free agents is off the table for New York.

Whether or not that turns out to be true, perhaps no one is happier about this signing than Burnes, who can now point to this deal as the starting point for his own pact. Starting pitching in baseball, circa 2024, is a funny thing. It's less certain than ever, given the pitcher injury epidemic. Rotation innings, in general, have never been fewer, yet star pitchers are getting more money than they ever have.

The terms of this contract are amazing -- two years and $43 million more than McDaniel's projection -- and even more out of whack with projections from other outlets. You get the feeling that after missing out on Juan Soto (because, apparently, sometimes $700 million-plus just isn't enough), the Yankees would not be denied in these negotiations.

This time, they got their guy.

Alas, eight years is an awfully long contract for a pitcher. Full stop. According to the contracts database at MLB Trade Rumors, this is the 14th free agent deal of six years or longer given to a pitcher since 2015, and that includes Shohei Ohtani. So, that number is really 13, and the Yankees now have three of those pitchers in Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon and Fried. In fact, taking Ohtani off the list and removing pitchers coming over from Japan, Cole is the only other MLB free agent starter to get a deal this long over the past decade. And, really, Fried simply isn't on Cole's level, so that's an iffy comparison.

Cole was two years younger when he signed with the Yankees and already had four 200-inning campaigns under his belt. He has been everything the Yankees could have wanted. Rodon represents the uncertainty factor. He was one of the best free agent hurlers available when the Yankees signed him (at age 29) despite a history of injury. He has had one injured-marred mess of a season so far and one mostly healthy season -- in 2024, when he was more above average than outstanding.

Still, the duration of contracts right now seem to be undergoing some inflation, and I suspect there is a push from high-revenue teams to manage average annual values as a way to keep luxury tax navigation between the rails. Even if that's the case here, this is still a lot of guaranteed money for a pitcher.

Fried, 30, is older than Rodon and has an even more expensive contract, but Fried also has been better, with a 2.87 ERA and 3.11 FIP since 2021 that is better than both of the other members of the Yankees' new big three. Fried doesn't strike out nearly as many hitters but does a better job of keeping the ball in the yard, a trait that should hold up well at Yankee Stadium. New York will need to field quality defenses behind him given his non-elite K-rate.

Fried has not carried a Cole-like workload but has carried a higher volume than Rodon. In terms of injury, Fried has had a lot of blister issues but his arm has been fine until the last couple of seasons, both of which saw him hit the injured list with forearm maladies. He missed a chunk of the middle of the season in 2024 but came back strong down the stretch, logging a 2.39 ERA over his last eight regular-season outings and averaged 6 1/2 innings in those contests.

With respect to performance, Fried has mostly been very good with the exception of when he was elite in 2022, just missing NL Cy Young honors. This contract demands elite year-in, year-out performances, and it is unclear whether that's a realistic expectation for him. Given the bar the contract sets, there is an uncomfortable level risk involved -- in terms of performance and health alike.

You have to wonder if general manager Brian Cashman (or his successor) is eventually going to be working around multiple years of an underground contract. In the shorter term, given good health luck, the Yankees will feature at least four years of a big three starting staff, as Cole and Rodon are under contract through 2028. That trio will head the rotation, with Rookie of the Year Luis Gil as the fourth option and, for the moment, Marcus Stroman serving as an accomplished No. 5. Given an adequate build out of depth, this will almost certainly be a top-tier rotation.

For the Yankees, it's a start. They need more. In the short term, Fried is a nice on-field pivot from the Soto disappointment -- but New York's response can't end here. Stay tuned. -- Doolittle

Phillies add two-time All-Star Romano to bullpen

The deal: 1 year
Grade: C+

With relievers Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez in free agency, the Philadelphia Phillies needed to lock down a late-game reliever to go alongside Jose Alvarado, Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering and agreed to a one-year deal with former Toronto Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano. An All-Star in 2022 and '23, Romano was one of baseball's top relievers from 2021-23, when he went 17-12 with a 2.37 ERA and 95 saves. He battled elbow issues in 2024 and pitched just 13⅔ innings, allowing four home runs with a 6.59 ERA.

He'll have to pass the Phillies' physical, but his health worried the Blue Jays enough that they non-tendered Romano despite a reasonable projected arbitration salary of $7.75 million. If Romano's healthy, the Phillies might have their ninth-inning guy, leaving the others in setup roles. Romano is your classic four-seam/slider reliever, hitting 96-97 mph with his top-of-the-zone fastball and inducing swing-and-miss with the slider. Over his excellent three-year run, he showed no platoon split, holding lefties to a .574 OPS and righties to a .593 OPS. His strikeout rate peaked at 33.6% in 2021 but remained a solid 29.0% in 2023.

Given the concerns about his health -- he started 2024 on the injured list with inflammation, returned in mid-April and then made his last appearance on May 29 -- he's hardly a guarantee for 2025. I thought the Phillies would go after one of the top free agent relievers, either re-signing Hoffman or Estevez, or maybe signing Tanner Scott or Kirby Yates, who are both coming off outstanding seasons. Passing for now on Estevez is probably the right call given his so-so strikeout rate for an end-game reliever, but Romano will be hard-pressed to replace Hoffman's numbers (2.17 ERA, 10 saves, 89 K's in 66⅓ IP). The Phillies don't have a lot of relief depth beyond this top group, so another relief move might still be in order -- but, hey, at least they have two good lefties in Alvarado and Strahm for late-game matchups against that new lefty in the Mets' lineup. -- Schoenfield

Dodgers land outfield depth with Conforto

The deal: 1 year, $17 million
Grade: C+

The Los Angeles Dodgers entered the offseason with their outfield a bit in flux. Teoscar Hernandez, who hit 33 home runs and drove in 99 runs, is a free agent, and the team announced that Mookie Betts would be moving back to the infield in 2025 (where Miguel Rojas and Gavin Lux also reside as middle infielders). That leaves Tommy Edman as the center fielder with Andy Pages, Chris Taylor and James Outman also on the 40-man roster. Pages played well enough as a rookie to get another look in 2025, while Outman will attempt to rediscover his 2023 swing. Taylor didn't hit at all in 2024 (.202/.298/.300), and while he's set to make $13 million in 2025, his roster spot is hardly guaranteed.

Signing Conforto doesn't close the door on bringing Hernandez back, but ESPN's Alden Gonzalez reported that the two sides have been "unable to bridge the gap." Conforto feels like a good insurance plan if Hernandez signs elsewhere -- and he suddenly looks like a good for the Yankees, Blue Jays or Red Sox (aka, the Juan Soto losers). The left-handed hitting Conforto had his best seasons with the Mets from 2017 to 2020 before missing all of 2022 after shoulder surgery. He played for the Giants the past two seasons, hitting .238/.322/.418 and producing 2.0 WAR in 958 plate appearances, making him a below-average regular. He was better in 2024, slugging .450, good for an OPS+ of 116, and the Dodgers are likely eyeballing one key number: 17 of his Conforto's 20 home runs came on the road, where he hit .253/.323/.530. Get him away from Oracle Park and its big right field and maybe he hits 25 to 30 home runs.

Hernandez was a good fit as a righty masher in the middle of Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy, with Conforto a less ideal fit as another lefty hitter (although how many good left-handed starters are there to worry about?). An outfield of Conforto, Edman and Pages wouldn't rank as one of the best in the majors, but it would be competent enough and the Dodgers could always make an in-season deal if needed (or hope Taylor bounces back as a platoon option). Prospect Dalton Rushing is another possibility, although he's another left-handed hitter. Conforto is a below-average defender, limited to a corner, and his speed has deteriorated from where he was pre-shoulder surgery. He's fine on a one-year deal, maybe a little steep at $17 million, but that's spare change to the Dodgers. -- Schoenfield

Dodgers bring back top reliever Treinen

The deal: 2 years, $22 million
Grade: B

It's no coincidence that the two years the Los Angeles Dodgers won the World Series during this dynastic run of theirs -- 12 consecutive postseason appearances, including 11 NL West titles -- were the two years that Blake Treinen was healthy in October. Treinen was the winning pitcher in the final game of the World Series, pitching 2⅓ scoreless innings before handing the ball off to Walker Buehler to close it out. Treinen won two games, saved three others and picked up two holds in October during the Dodgers' title run, pitching anywhere from the sixth to the ninth innings. When the Dodgers won in 2020, Treinen had one win, one save and three holds in the postseason.

Treinen's big weapon is one of the most unhittable pitches in baseball, a sharp-breaking sweeper that starts at a right-handed batter's elbow and dives down and out to the outside corner. Batters hit .120 against it in 2024 with just two extra-base hits and when they swung at the pitch, they missed it 49% of the time. He combines that with a 95 mph sinker and cutter to give him a strong three-pitch arsenal, but it's the sweeper that drives the show.

One thing the Dodgers have been effective at is building strong bullpens without committing to a high-cost closer like Edwin Diaz or Josh Hader, allowing them to spend that money elsewhere on the roster. They believe they can find and create effective relievers, often off the scrap heap if necessary, as they've done with guys like Evan Phillips and Ryan Brasier in recent years. Since Kenley Jansen departed after the 2021 season, they've used more of a bullpen by committee, with Treinen one of those guys who is willing to pitch in any role.

Treinen isn't without risk. He's 36 years old and pitched just five games in 2022 and missed all of 2023 after shoulder surgery, so we have to hedge the grade a little bit. He didn't debut until May in 2024 and pitched just 46 innings in the regular season as Dave Roberts handled him carefully, rarely using him on consecutive days (at least until the playoffs). Still, he's the perfect fit for the way the Dodgers use their pen. Treinen might also not be the only move for their relief corps. Brusdar Graterol had labrum surgery and will miss at least the first half; Phillips missed the World Series with a shoulder injury, although he is expected to be ready for spring training; Daniel Hudson announced his retirement. Maybe one of the kids steps up; Ben Casparius was a starter in the minors but could be a big weapon as a reliever, for example. -- Schoenfield

Mets land Soto in largest deal in MLB history

The deal: 15 years, $765 million
Grade: B+

A new era in New York baseball will begin in 2025: Juan Soto has agreed to a record-setting 15-year, $765 million deal with the Mets. The crosstown Yankees have long dominated the headlines in the Big Apple -- with more success on the field, more star power in the lineup and bigger names signed in free agency. Even in 2024, as the Mets made a run to the National League Championship Series, the Yankees did better, reaching their first World Series since 2009.

But now Soto, coming off a season with the Yankees in which he hit .288/.419/.568 with 41 home runs, 128 runs scored and a third-place finish in the American League MVP voting, will take his lethal bat to Queens, where he has a chance to become the best hitter in Mets history. If Soto hits like he did in 2024, that's not hyperbole.

Read David Schoenfield's full Juan Soto grade here

Giants plug shortstop hole with Adames

The deal: 7 years, $182 million
Grade: C+

To summarize at the beginning: I like Willy Adames as a player very much. I love Adames as a teammate. And it's good for him that he got paid. But I'm not particularly sold on his ability to justify this level of contract, especially for this team.

Many -- pundits and teams alike -- are very much sold on Adames, who was considered solidly in the second tier of free agents, with the top tier consisting of only Juan Soto. Just this week, Adames was rumored to be the centerpiece of the New York Yankees' Plan B in the event of a Soto departure.

ESPN's Kiley McDaniel ranked Adames as the fourth-best free agent and projected a seven-year, $189 million pact. So, the San Francisco Giants more or less nailed that forecast and even came in a little under. Either way, the money appears to be about right, but the timing of the deal is surprising in that you figure that Adames and his agent would have wanted to first see where Soto landed, if only to then watch the teams left out bid against each other.

For a few years now, I've harped about the Giants' high-level free agency failings, so perhaps I should be patting them on the back for this deal. And if you want to argue that after so many misses in recent years the Giants should have clung to anyone truly willing to take their money, that's fair. But if I put myself into the shoes for first-time exec Buster Posey, this isn't a match I would have leaped into.

My hesitancy is based on a few things. First, though Adames has been a premier power bat (for his position) on an annual basis, he's still a low-average, low-contact hitter who carries the inconsistencies that go with that profile. In 2023, his age 27 season, he hit just .217 and his secondary skills couldn't lift his OPS+ to league average. Taken as a whole, he's about 8% better than the league-average hitter over the past three years.

Ah, you say: But he's a shortstop, and those numbers should account for that! You're right, but the effect isn't that stark, especially as things have changed when it comes to the standards for offense at that position. Over the past three years, the OPS of MLB shortstops is about six points below the MLB average -- the position has outhit centerfielders, second basemen and catchers. In 2024, shortstops had the fourth-highest OPS of any position, adding left field and third base to the positions they outhit. With a .728 collective OPS, shortstops were 17 points above the MLB average. Adames' platform-year OPS+ was 117.

That said, Adames' exit velocities have been remarkably consistent and that is reflected in his isolated power numbers. His career home/road homer splits are unremarkable, a good thing for someone moving from American Family Field to Oracle Park. But it's another concern nonetheless: Per Statcast, Adames would have 154 career homers if he played all his games at American Family but just 121 at Oracle. He will take a hit in the power department and a lot of his offensive value is tied to his ability to clear the fence.

One other concern is that Adames' defensive-runs-saved numbers tanked last season. One-season results in that metric can be misleading but over the past three years as a whole, he's at plus-1, another roughly league-average indicator. I wonder about Adames' possible decline (he will turn 30 next year) -- not just because of a poor DRS total in 2024 (minus-16) that will surely regress in the right direction, but also because his sprint speed has dropped each season. It's not a red flag yet, and the fact that he was 21-for-25 in stolen bases in 2024 is a good sign in terms of mobility.

But if the speed erosion ties into a real decline in lateral movement, a move to another position might be in order sooner than later. And Adames is somewhat limited in that possibility with the Giants because of the presence of Matt Chapman at third base; Adames' arm strength would be wasted anywhere but the left side of the infield.

Adames is a beloved clubhouse guy, and he'll be a go-to presence on Bob Melvin's team. That's certainly welcome. He's also an excellent bet to provide average or better production on both sides of the ball for at least a year or two. Beyond that, we'll see -- and the "beyond" on this deal is a half-decade. That's my concern.

If my skeptical view of the future Adames turns out to be misguided, then this grade is closer to a B or better. For now, Giants fans weary of being scorned have to be thrilled to see an early success in the hot stove season. After rumors of a possible payroll reduction, it appears that San Francisco is operating like a club intent of challenging the host of leading contenders in their division.

That last aspect is worth half a letter itself, so we land at a little better than the baseline of any transaction grade, a C. -- Doolittle

O's sign O'Neill for power bat in outfield

The deal: 3 years, $49.5 million (opt-out after first year)
Grade: B

Tyler O'Neill is one of the ultimate high-risk, high-reward free agents in this year's class. At his very best, like in 2021 with the Cardinals, he was a top-10 finisher in the MVP voting. When he's very good, like he was with Red Sox this past season, he hit 31 home runs and produced 2.6 WAR in just 113 games. In between, however, comes the risk: He played just 168 games across 2022 and 2023 and produced just 1.5 WAR with below-average offensive numbers.

The Baltimore Orioles -- looking for a replacement for Anthony Santander, who hit 44 home runs in 2024 -- will hope O'Neill can stay healthy and replicate the power numbers he had for the Red Sox. The good news for both sides: O'Neill is a dead pull hitter, and the Orioles are moving their left-field fence in, three years after moving it back. The wall will still start at 333 feet, but the wall over to the bullpen area will be moved in from distances varying from 9 to 20 feet. The wall height will decrease from 13 to 8 feet (or slightly lower in some areas).

Going after a right-handed power hitter, then, makes a lot of sense for the Orioles. Of their top six home-run hitters in 2024, three were lefties, two were switch-hitters (including Santander) and only Jordan Westburg hit from the right side. O'Neill, however, crushed lefties in 2024, hitting .313/.430/.750, the third-best OPS against southpaws in the majors among players with 100 plate appearances. Against right-handers, O'Neill hit just .209 with a .693 OPS. That doesn't necessarily make him a platoon player, and one-year splits can be misleading, but O'Neill has been much more effective throughout his career against southpaws.

The No. 21 free agent on Kiley McDaniel's list, O'Neill had a projection of three years and $50 million, so this contract comes right in at that mark. The negative for the Orioles is the player opt-out: If O'Neill battles injuries and has a down year, he's back in 2026; if he has another good year, he likely reenters free agency. Still, I like this deal a little better than the projected three-year, $69 million (and maybe higher) for Santander, coming off a career season he's unlikely to repeat. O'Neill nearly matched Santander's WAR (2.9) in 2024 in less playing time, as he had the higher OBP and is better in the field and on the bases.

In the end, this seems like a fair replacement for Santander at a lower salary. While the Orioles might be accused of going the cheap route here, keep in mind the musical chairs scenario: You have to lock up somebody while you still have the chance. The move also leaves GM Mike Elias plenty of flexibility -- both financially and roster-wise -- to sign a top starting pitcher or use prospects to make a big trade. -- Schoenfield

Mets sign Clay Holmes ... as a starter!

The deal: 3 years, $38 million (opt-out after second year)
Grade: B+

The New York Mets, needing to replace three starting pitchers in their rotation, have come up with a creative idea in signing their second starter of the offseason: former New York Yankees reliever Clay Holmes, who will be given the opportunity to start. The move isn't coming out of left field, as reports had indicated that some teams were considering Holmes in that role. Holmes started four games as a rookie with the Pirates in 2018 and had been developed as a starter in the minors, but he has been exclusively a reliever for his past 300 regular-season appearances.

In recent years, several other pitchers have notably transitioned from reliever to starter. Seth Lugo reached the majors as a starter, but the Mets eventually moved him to the bullpen on a regular basis; the San Diego Padres put him back in the rotation in 2023 and he finished second in the Cy Young voting with the Royals in 2024. Michael King had been stellar pitching out of the Yankees bullpen in 2022 and '23, went to the Padres in the Juan Soto trade, and had an outstanding season in the rotation there in 2024. The San Francisco Giants had some success trying the move with Jordan Hicks in 2024, although he tired after a strong first two months.

In Holmes' case, the question -- aside from durability and maintaining velocity with longer outings -- will be whether he has the arsenal of pitches to go through a lineup multiple times. As a reliever, he has been a three-pitch pitcher, relying extensively on a hard-moving sinker that averaged 96.6 mph in 2024 (he threw it 56% of the time, which was actually down the past two seasons, including using it 80% of the time in 2022). He mixes in a slider and sweeper -- and earlier in his career he did throw a curveball, although he shelved that after 2021. Though his sinker/slider/sweeper selection would seem to leave him potentially vulnerable to left-handed batters, since breaking with the Yankees in 2021 he has been good enough against them with a .674 OPS allowed (he's ruthless on a righties with a .537 OPS).

The bigger issue is that his sinker lost some of its magic in 2024: Batters hit .317 off it compared to .260 in 2023 (and .200 in 2022). There was a little bad luck mixed in there and Holmes still excelled at keeping the ball on the ground, so that ability to limit home runs could go a long way in making him an effective starter (he has surrendered only 13 home runs in 259 innings over the past four seasons).

In short: I love this idea and think it has a great chance of working out. Maybe the Mets will work with him on mixing in a four-seamer or bringing back that curveball.

And they're hardly gambling big money here. If it doesn't work out in the rotation, they can move Holmes back to the bullpen (where they also need depth) as a quality setup guy to Edwin Diaz. The salary is worth noting, because on top of earlier signing Frankie Montas it leaves the Mets plenty of room to still sign a No. 1 starter in Corbin Burnes or Max Fried -- or the No. 1 free agent on the board (you know who). Consider the guy Holmes is sort of replacing in the rotation, Luis Severino, who just agreed to a three-year, $67 million deal with the A's. While Holmes is unlikely to replace all 180 innings Severino provided in 2024, I'll still take Holmes at $12 million per year over Severino at $22.3. -- Schoenfield

A's sign Severino to biggest free agent deal in franchise history

The deal: 3 years, $67 million
Grade: C+

As the Athletics move from Oakland to Sacramento's Triple-A ballpark for 2025 (and at least a couple of seasons beyond that, depending on what happens with the proposed stadium in Las Vegas), they announced they were going to increase payroll. It's not exactly clear why the owner John Fisher, after running the lowest payrolls in the majors each of the past three seasons, is now willing to increase spending, but that's what GM David Forst said at the team's end-of-season news conference. Take your own cynical view about that.

The A's need starting pitching help -- they ranked 26th in the majors with a 4.76 rotation ERA and 29^th in strikeout rate -- but the problem going into the offseason appeared to be that no pitcher with options would choose to pitch in Sacramento. The average daily high temperature in June: 89 degrees. In July: 93 degrees. In August: 93 degrees. In September: Cools down to 88. Sutter Health Park, where the A's will share time with the Sacramento River Cats, the Giants' Triple-A team, presumably will be a great place for hitters. (This is a little hard to know with certainty. In 2024, the River Cats hit and allowed 209 home runs on the road while hitting and allowing just 136 at home, but most of their road games were in places like Vegas, Reno, El Paso and Salt Lake, which are even more extreme hitter paradises.) At the very least, Sacramento will likely be much tougher on pitchers than Oakland Coliseum was.

This is a long way of getting to the point: The only way the A's were going to convince any free agent pitcher of significance to sign with them was to overpay -- and that feels like the case with Severino, although based on Kiley McDaniel's forecast, it's not much of one (he predicted three years, $58.5 million). It's also a contract that is more than double the previous high for an A's free agent: a three-year, $30 million deal given to Billy Butler in 2015.

The biggest issue is that Severino was merely OK with the Mets in 2024, going 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.6 WAR -- although that was a big improvement from a lost 2023 season with the Yankees when he posted a 6.65 ERA. He did rack up 182 innings, which makes him a workhorse in today's game. His big key was getting the command back on his four-seam fastball. The velocity was pretty much the same as 2023 (96.2 versus 96.5 in '23), but batters hit .243 against it after hitting .355 in 2023. He also introduced a new sweeper that he used 17% of the time to go alongside his slider and that proved to be his most effective pitch as batters hit .139 against it.

At the same time, Severino benefited from pitcher-friendly Citi Field, posting a 2.96 ERA there compared to 5.00 on the road. After a great April (2.31 ERA), his ERA was 4.29 the rest of the season. It was also his first full season since 2018 as he made just seven starts from 2019 to 2021 due to Tommy John surgery and had other injuries the previous two seasons. We'll see how this plays out over three years, of course, but it's a pretty hefty price to pay for a No. 3 or 4 starter. But, hey, at least the A's are spending money. That's something. -- Schoenfield

Red Sox sign veteran Chapman for bullpen help

The deal: 1 year, $10.75 million
Grade: B-

Have fastball, willing to travel. That's been the motto for Aroldis Chapman in recent years as the Cuban left-hander joins his fifth team in four seasons, going from the New York Yankees to the Kansas City Royals to the Texas Rangers to the Pittsburgh Pirates and now to the Boston Red Sox, a team in need of bullpen depth.

The Red Sox ranked 25th in the majors in bullpen ERA in 2024 at 4.36, as well as 23rd in strikeout rate and 26th in OPS allowed, so there was nothing fluky about that ERA. The late-game relievers weren't any better either, as Boston ranked 23rd in win probability added. With closer Kenley Jansen a free agent -- and probably a guy the Red Sox wanted to upgrade anyway -- there is a lot of work to be done. Chapman is probably just the first step.

He's not really closer material these days, though, as he hasn't posted an ERA under 3.00 since 2019 and his last season as a full-time closer was 2021, when he saved 30 games for the Yankees. Chapman turns 37 in February and while he no longer reaches triple digits on every pitch, his fastball still averaged 98.7 mph and he racked up 98 strikeouts in 61⅔ innings for the Pirates. His biggest change over the past two seasons is mixing in a sinker a lot more often than simply relying on his four-seamer/slider/splitter.

Doing that hasn't helped him cut down on his walks, though -- he still averaged 5.7 walks per nine innings and hasn't been under 5.0 in a full season since 2019. That makes Chapman a difficult pitcher to completely trust as your ninth-inning reliever and pushes him into more of a setup role. On a playoff team, he's probably your third- or fourth-best reliever. That suggests the Red Sox still need a closer. Maybe that's Liam Hendriks coming back from Tommy John surgery, but he's obviously a wild card. The good news is there are plenty of potential closers available either in trade (Ryan Helsley or Devin Williams) or free agency (Kirby Yates, Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman, Carlos Estevez). -- Schoenfield

Cubs ink Boyd to two-year deal

The deal: 2 years, $29 million
Grade: C

For the past couple of years, I've tried to harp on the importance of recent performance when it comes to evaluating relief pitchers. And by performance, we're not necessarily talking about the traditional stat line. More so, it's about tracking metrics and, even more importantly, how those may or may not have changed in a way that dovetails with changes in the stat line.

Matthew Boyd isn't a reliever, though he played the part to great effect during a 10-game stint with Seattle in 2021. The extent to which you should intentionally lean on recency bias with these factors when it comes to starting pitchers is still a matter of debate, as best I can tell. That is: Yes, velocity can change, new pitches can be added, old pitches can be given a new shape, arm angles can be tweaked. But given the complexities of facing a lineup two or three times a game, I tend to still favor good-old-fashioned results as much as Statcast-like measures with starters, though all of it has to be considered.

All of this is a prelude to this statement: Matthew Boyd doesn't have the track record of a pitcher who ought to get a multiyear deal worth nearly $30 million to join the rotation of a team trying to get into the playoffs. That payout -- $14.5 million per season for two years -- is very much the going rate for a back-of-the-rotation veteran starter. The problem is that if the Cubs are overrating what Boyd did for Cleveland in 2024, then he's taking a rotation spot that a more consistent pitcher would hold down. If that's the case, the money really does matter.

I'm not a total Boyd skeptic. He's a high-character player who did pitch well last season, especially during a near-spotless playoff run. The 2.72 ERA he recorded over eight regular-season starts sparkles, but it was also built on a small sample. Boyd's career ERA+ (with 100 being league average), compiled over 900-plus innings, is 92. If we put stock into won-loss records as evaluative indicators (we don't especially), that would be even more damning. Boyd has a career record of 46-69, a .400 winning percentage that is the eighth worst among pitchers with at least 100 decisions during the division era (since 1969).

What's crucial for Chicago is that Boyd is able to carry over the success he found in Cleveland's pitching program while moving into the Cubs' version. The one obvious change in his arsenal was that he cut out most of the sliders he used to throw to righties and replaced them with more changeups, a tweak that seemed to work well.

Even if the revised arsenal pans out over a longer sample, the Cubs still need Boyd to stay healthy as he hasn't made more than 15 starts in a season since 2019. If he can, at the very least Boyd is a good bet to upgrade the production Chicago got from Kyle Hendricks last year and he can also help fill any kind mentor role void opened by Hendricks' departure. The Cubs just need to hope that what Boyd has done in the recent past carries over to the near future. -- Doolittle

Mets add Montas to starting rotation

The deal: 2 years, $34 million
Grade: C

While the Mets are busy pursuing Juan Soto and perhaps re-signing Pete Alonso or finding another big bat for their lineup, they face another pressing issue: Of their 2024 rotation, three-fifths are no longer under contract. With Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and Jose Quintana all in free agency, the rotation is dangerously thin behind Kodai Senga, David Peterson and Tylor Megill. Christian Scott, who made nine starts as a rookie, had Tommy John surgery and will miss the 2025 season. Brandon Sproat, the team's top pitching prospect, had a 7.53 ERA in seven starts at Triple-A. So, enter Frankie Montas on a two-year deal. He won't be the only free agent starter the Mets sign.

The Mets had to address their rotation. While they could still land one of the top free agents -- Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Manaea would be the biggest options after Blake Snell signed with the Dodgers -- Montas at least gives them somebody to pencil in. They needed to get some certainty. If you wait too long hoping to get the guys at the top of your list, you might not get any of them and then have fewer options for the rest of the rotation.

The only problem with Montas: He's unlikely to replace what any of the three free agents did in 2024. He's insurance, but he's likely a downgrade.

After missing much of the second half of 2022 and almost all of 2023 after shoulder surgery, Montas returned with the Cincinnati Reds in 2024 and went 7-10 with a 4.84 ERA, pitching slightly better after a midseason trade to the Milwaukee Brewers. He did post for 30 starts and struck 148 batters in 150 innings, but he averaged just five innings per start and walked 3.9 batters per nine innings. Maybe being another year out from shoulder surgery will help, especially considering his velocity was there with a four-seamer that averaged 95.6 mph. His splitter, his big wipeout weapon when he had his best season with Oakland in 2021, remained effective, but his cutter and slider got hammered.

It's worth noting the Mets found Severino on the scrap heap last season and saw him produce a solid 1.6-WAR season. If they can get that kind of production out of Montas, the $17 million per season is a reasonable deal. The upside is the 3.8-WAR he had with the A's in 2021, but that's also the only season that Montas has qualified for the ERA title in his career. For now, he projects as a back-end starter. Which means the Mets still need an ace. The good news: They still have plenty of money to spend (with or without Soto). -- Schoenfield

Dodgers lock up Edman with extension

The deal: 5 years, $74 million
Grade: A-

This is not a deal the Los Angeles Dodgers had to do, which tells you everything you need to know about Tommy Edman -- especially when you remember that it's been just under five months since Edman made his L.A. debut.

Much of what I wrote when the Dodgers acquired Edman applies now. He is an ideal fit for this team. He's a perfect fit for any team, really, but the dividends that Edman's skill set and versatility offer prove more impactful on the Dodgers than they might on an also-ran.

Never was that more evident than in October, when Edman enjoyed perhaps the best stretch of his career while playing a major role in the Dodgers' championship run. That included starting games at both shortstop and centerfield while driving in 13 runs and scoring 12 in 16 playoff games. In the NLCS against the Mets, he put up an .862 OPS and won MVP honors.

The Dodgers love their super-utility types. In the history of everyday-caliber players who can capably swing from shortstop to center field to second base -- it isn't that long a list -- a lot of the most accomplished of them have found their way to the Dodgers.

Edman is the latest, but while he has super-utility attributes, he's also good enough to hold down an up-the-middle position on an everyday basis. Because of that, this deal could be considered team-friendly.

There's so much to love about Edman's game. He's a plus fielder at those key defensive spots, steals bases with above-average speed and is better than average at the plate, especially when you factor in his positional value and utility as a switch-hitter.

Edman has above-average power that he gets to with solid bat-to-ball skills. His home run rate after moving to the Dodgers (3.9%) was the best of his career, especially impressive given that he was coming off a wrist injury. He's not overly aggressive, but he's not as passive as Dodger hitters can sometimes be, and his presence between such hitters balances the lineup.

Again: The Dodgers didn't have to make this deal. Edman was on the books for $9.5 million in advance of free agency, and you would have had to like the Dodgers' chances to resign him even if he hit the market.

But they made it a priority now, and locking Edman up makes sense. Star-laden teams need glue players and in Edman, the Dodgers will continue to have one of the best. -- Bradford Doolittle

Dodgers add 2-time Cy Young winner Snell to rotation

The deal: 5 years, $182 million
Grade: A-

At his best, two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell is as good as any starting pitcher on the planet -- and he has stretches when he's so dominant that he invokes names like Sandy Koufax, Steve Carlton and Randy Johnson, those great power left-handers of the past. Just look at his final 14 starts of 2024 with the San Francisco Giants (after returning from an injury following a slow start): 5-0, 1.23 ERA, .123 average allowed, 114 SO in 80⅓ IP. Or his final 22 starts of 2023 with the San Diego Padres: 13-3, 1.18 ERA, .154 average, 180 SO in 130 IP. Or his final 14 starts of 2022: 7-5, 2.19 ERA, .209 average, 105 SO in 78 IP. Of those 50 starts, he gave up one run or no runs in 38 of them.

There have also, however, been frustrating bouts of inconsistency, wildness and minor injuries -- the only two seasons he topped 130 innings have been his two Cy Young seasons of 2018 and 2023. He also has topped 2.2 bWAR in only those Cy Young years. Because of a combination of high pitch counts and wearing down later in games (his career OPS the first time through the order is .580, but it jumps to .700 the third time), he has completed at least eight innings only once in his career -- the no-hitter he threw this past season.

Throw it all together and this is still the right move for the Los Angeles Dodgers, even given the general risk for signing free agent starters in their 30s (Snell is entering his age-32 season). There's always a big risk with free agent pitchers of any age (especially at this dollar amount), but the Dodgers did need a starter to replace free agents Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler. For an organization that can print its playoff tickets in spring training -- the Dodgers have made 12 straight trips to the postseason -- Snell's usual strong second-half performance projects as a huge plus given the Dodgers' inability to field healthy rotations come October the past two years. And while Snell has made 30 starts only twice, the injuries have been more of the minor type, with no Tommy John surgeries or other long, debilitating issues in his past.

The stuff speaks for itself: 96 mph four-seamer, knee-buckling curveball (batters hit .111 off it in 2024 with a ridiculous 50% swing-and-miss rate), wipeout slider (primarily used against the few lefties who dare stay in the lineup to face him) and a plus changeup (one home run off it last season). His 11.2 career K's per nine leads all active starting pitchers. After walking a career-worst 13.3% of the batters he faced in 2023 (5.0 walks per nine), he lowered those numbers to 10.5% and 3.8 in 2024. Indeed, the stuff is so good that, if he remains healthy, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Snell have his best seasons ahead of him -- just as Carlton and Johnson dominated into their late 30s.

So, yes, the Dodgers are coming off a World Series title -- and adding Snell and Shohei Ohtani to the rotation. Back at the turn of the century, Boston Red Sox president Larry Lucchino infamously referred to the rival New York Yankees as the "Evil Empire." No doubt, the Dodgers' National League West rivals in San Diego, San Francisco and Arizona -- as well as fans across the nation -- might be thinking of the Dodgers in those terms right now. And that's with Juan Soto still on the market. -- Schoenfield

Angels add more rotation help with Yusei Kikuchi

The deal: 3 years, $63 million
Grade: C+

The Angels certainly have a thing for left-handed starters -- they lead the majors in most games started by lefties over the past three seasons -- so linking up with another southpaw in Yusei Kikuchi hardly qualifies as a surprise. They've also been the most active team, adding Kikuchi to a list of offseason acquisitions that already includes Jorge Soler, Travis d'Arnaud and Kyle Hendricks.

Kikuchi is coming off the two best months of his career following a deadline trade from the Blue Jays to the Astros. In 10 starts with Houston, he went 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA, striking out 76 batters in 60 innings with an impressive 31.8% strikeout rate and holding batters to a .188 average. There are reasons to believe in the improvement: With the Astros, he threw his slider much more often (from 16.9% of the time while with the Blue Jays to 37.1%) while throwing his four-seam fastball and especially his curveball less often (he also utilizes a changeup against right-handers).

It's just two months of performance that stands out from the rest of his career. Since signing with Seattle in 2019, Kikuchi has always had a plus fastball -- he has averaged 95 mph over the past four seasons, including a career-high 95.5 in 2024 -- but he's also never had a 2-WAR season. While he has been durable -- he made 20 starts in 2022 only because he was banished to the bullpen -- he has also been homer-prone. His control has improved the past two seasons, including a career-low 6% walk rate in 2024, so in combination with the increased slider usage, maybe this is a new and improved pitcher entering his age-34 season. Maybe.

It's also true the Angels have struggled to get the most out of their starting pitchers or to keep them healthy. Oddly enough, despite all their struggles in the pitching department over the past decade, this signing is the second biggest in total dollar amount in franchise history for a free agent pitcher, trailing only the $77.5 million deal given C.J. Wilson in 2012 (Mark Langston in 1990 would be regarded as a bigger signing just in evaluating the player).

After trading Griffin Canning in the Soler deal and non-tendering the injured Patrick Sandoval, the Angels needed to fill their rotation. Kikuchi and Hendricks at least do that. Now they just need to upgrade the infield, the outfield and the bullpen. -- Schoenfield

Royals deal Singer to Cincinnati to bolster offense

Royals get:
2B Jonathan India
OF Joey Wiemer

Reds get:
RHP Brady Singer

Royals grade: C+

The rotation was the foundation of the Royals' surprising success in 2024. A key aspect of that group's work was durability -- five pitchers combined to make 151 of the team's 162 regular-season starts, including 32 from Singer.

In a nutshell, I believe a couple of things when it comes to trading in baseball. Well, there's more than a couple of things but let's focus on what pertains to this deal. I love dealing from organizational depth to bolster areas of organizational scarcity. That's a no-brainer. I also don't like to mess up something that's working in an effort to *shake things up.*

The Royals have violated both of those tenets with this deal. Maybe they think that after they came out so well last winter via free agency with the signings of Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo to fill out the rotation that they can go back to that well to replace Singer. Maybe. But success in free agency with starting pitchers is more the exception than the rule.

That said, I'd be good with that if India or Weimer solved any kind of problem. I'll focus on India, who is more likely to be an everyday player. My guess -- and this is written with no details of the Royals plans yet known to me -- is that J.J. Picollo sees India as an option to improve the Royals at third base.

Yes, India has played all 471 games defensively at second base. It's just that other than his NL Rookie of the Year season in 2021, he hasn't played it very well. Defensive metrics are riddled with misreading based on the large samples needed for them to stabilize, but that works against India. Over the past three years, he's minus-31 defensive runs saved and minus-15 outs above average at the position.

That won't do. The Royals' run prevention design is predicated on a defensive backbone that works with a pitching staff that doesn't try to strike everyone out. The only thing that makes sense is that the Royals think India's metrics will be better at a different position -- third base or, perhaps, an outfield corner. With Michael Massey in place and right-handed options around to balance him at second base, the Royals simply didn't need to upgrade at the keystone.

But even if the Royals see India more as an offensive upgrade -- somewhere -- that's also a dubious proposition. His post-ROY offense is precisely league average -- a composite 100 OPS+. That is not impact production, especially when you're giving away one of your bedrock starters, one with untapped upside like Singer. It just feels like dealing Singer could have yielded ... more.

It's possible that the Royals see India's on-base ability as a natural fit to fill their need for a steady leadoff hitter. That's not bad reasoning, considering that when the Royals got production from that spot in 2024, it often fueled their entire lineup with the Bobby Witt Jr./Vinnie Pasquantino/Salvador Perez obstacle that follows.

Weimer is a saving grace in this deal for Kansas City. He hasn't hit in the majors at all and never will if he can't get some kind of handle on the swing and miss in his game. But Weimer is a walking tool kit, with one of the best outfield arms in the game, almost shockingly plus speed giving his tight end-like build and tremendous pop off the bat -- when he makes contact.

The Royals have done well by figuring out ways to exploit the plus tools in their arsenal and in Weimer, they've got a lot to work with. He can at the very least provide a regular platoon option in center to balance lefty-swinging Kyle Isbel.

Reds grade: B+

The Reds are plush with infield options, and with India down to one more arbitration-eligible season, this was a good time to move on from the former Rookie of the Year. Adding Weimer into the deal isn't without pain, but he hadn't been in the Cincinnati organization for very long and adding a rock-steady rotation member in Singer is worth the cost.

Singer has always been limited by his lack of secondary pitches, which has left him with unwieldy platoon splits -- a .681 OPS allowed to righties that balloons to .784 against lefties. Yet he's still been a plus pitcher, a career 102 ERA+ starter who has topped 150 innings in each of the past three seasons.

Now Singer will be taken under wing by Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson, one of the game's best. Not to demean a Royals' pitching program that has gotten a lot better in a hurry, but having some new voices in his head might be just what Singer needs. He's intense and hypercompetitive and now he will be surrounded by other still young starters like Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott and Rhett Lowder.

There is a risk: When Singer struggles, it's usually because of the long ball and that's not a great trait for Great American Ballpark. But there is a lot of upside to this deal for Cincinnati and it doesn't feel like it has traded anyone that club officials can't readily replace on the depth chart. -- Doolittle

Angels stay busy with d'Arnaud signing

The deal: 2 years, $12 million
Grade: C+

The Angels are intent on a couple of primary objectives this offseason: Improving the team's depth and making as many early moves as possible. After acquiring Jorge Soler from the Braves (for Griffin Canning) and signing pitcher Kyle Hendricks, they now add Travis d'Arnaud, who turns 36 in February. On the surface, it looks like a bit of an odd way to allocate $6 million of their 2025 payroll, given that catcher Logan O'Hoppe is one of the team's relative bright spots and they just traded for Soler to serve as the DH -- the two positions d'Arnaud might play. But if you're looking to move quickly, you have to find players who are willing to sign quickly.

As far as backup catchers go, d'Arnaud is about as good as it gets, starting 79 games behind the plate last year for the Braves and hitting .238/.302/.436 with 15 home runs. He wasn't as good at the plate in 2023, so given his age, there's no guarantee he'll be a league-average hitter again in 2025 like he was in 2024. Still, with O'Hoppe coming off a 20-homer, 2.7-WAR season, the Angels now have one of the better catching combinations in the league, with Matt Thaiss now relegated to third-string duties.

If the Angels keep Thaiss around, it's also possible that d'Arnaud gets some DH at-bats, with Soler playing some outfield. That's certainly not advisable, given Soler's poor performance in right field after the Braves acquired him from the Giants to fill in for the injured Ronald Acuña Jr. last summer (the Giants hadn't played Soler in the outfield at all). Putting Soler in the outfield also would mean keeping Mike Trout in center, which also doesn't seem advisable at this point in Trout's career, both for health reasons and the general rule that 33-year-olds age out of center field anyway. Right now, however, Trout is one of the only serviceable center fielders on the roster, along with Mickey Moniak, who hit .219/.266/.380.

While the Angels are doing stuff to improve around the edges, the parts don't exactly feel like they're fitting together in the best way possible. The $6 million salary is certainly reasonable, depending on how much d'Arnaud ends up playing, and it shouldn't prevent the Angels from going after bigger free agents -- which is what they need to do if they want to improve on last year's 99 losses (the most in franchise history). -- Schoenfield

Angels sign longtime Cubs RHP Hendricks

The deal: 1 year, $2.5 million
Grade: C

Kyle Hendricks had spent his entire 11-year major league career with the Chicago Cubs and was a key contributor to the 2016 curse-breaking World Series champs, going 16-8 with a league-leading 2.13 ERA that season. With his sub-90 mph fastball, Hendricks has always been a throwback-style pitcher, relying on location, changing speeds and outsmarting hitters -- and did that with success up until 2024, when he had his worst season, going 4-12 with a 5.92 ERA while allowing a robust .782 OPS.

Those numbers do suggest that he might be cooked as he enters his age-35 season, but it's worth a $2.5 million flyer for the Angels to see if he can help a rotation that ranked 28th in the majors with a 4.97 ERA. Digging a bit deeper into Hendricks' season, he had a 10.57 ERA through his first seven starts, at which point he was banished to the bullpen (batters had been hitting .556 against his four-seamer and .440 against his sinker). He posted a 4.73 ERA over his final 17 starts after rejoining the rotation on June 19 -- that wouldn't do much to improve an Angels rotation, but it suggests he can perhaps contribute as a back-end starter.

The other potential positive for the Angels is the opportunity for Hendricks to provide valuable leadership for a young staff that could be working in rookies such as Caden Dana and Samuel Aldegheri next season. (Both debuted with a few starts in 2024.)

This is the second significant move by the Angels so far, as they also traded for DH Jorge Soler the day after the World Series ended. Owner Arte Moreno said at the end of the season that the team needs to be more competitive in 2025. Hendricks and Soler are just pieces around the edges, so here's the big question: Are the Angels going to go after any of the top free agents to fill the other many remaining holes on the team? -- Schoenfield

Royals re-sign Wacha on three-year deal

The deal: 3 years, $51 million
Grade: B-

Michael Wacha continues to defy the odds. A rookie phenom for the St. Louis Cardinals way back in 2013, he pitched for three different teams from 2019 to 2021 and went 10-16 with a 5.11 ERA. His career was in crisis mode. Front offices around the sport agreed with that assessment, as Wacha spent the past three seasons with three more different teams: the Boston Red Sox in 2022, the San Diego Padres in 2023 and the Kansas City Royals in 2024. Here's the thing though: He pitched well all three seasons, going 38-14 with a 3.30 ERA, including starting 29 games in 2024, his highest figure since 2017.

Wacha had signed a two-year deal last offseason with Kansas City, but he was expected to exercise his opt-out clause. Instead, the two sides quickly reached a new agreement. For the first time since he left the Cardinals, a front office has faith in Wacha's continued long-term success. He's just entering his age-33 season, and at $17 million per season, the Royals are indicating they believe in his ability to stay healthy despite some injuries throughout his career.

His turnaround began when he started throwing his four-seam fastball less often. During his final season with St. Louis in 2020, for example, he threw it 49.5% of the time -- and it got hammered. In 2024, he threw it just 23.8% of the time, mixing in a two-seamer 15% of the time but relying heavily on a changeup, the pitch he threw most often (32.2%). While he allowed eight home runs on the changeup, batters hit just .169 against it. He added three other pitches -- cutter, slider, curveball -- although none of those was particularly effective.

Wacha has benefited the past two seasons from pitching in fly-ball-friendly home parks in San Diego and Kansas City and has had an ERA of about a run lower at home over the two years. But he induces a lot of soft contact, which has allowed him to overcome below-average whiff and strikeout rates. Given his age and some concerns about his durability, we can't give this an A. But it projects as a solid signing for the Royals as they keep their rotation -- the strength of last year's playoff team, along with Bobby Witt Jr. -- intact. -- Schoenfield

Angels add slugger Soler in trade with Braves

Braves get:
RHP Griffin Canning

Angels get:
DH Jorge Soler

Braves grade: C

Alex Anthopoulos always strikes quickly once the offseason begins -- one of the reasons he's one of the best executives in the game -- and this deal comes while the Dodgers are still nursing their World Series-winning hangovers.

The Braves had acquired Soler from the Giants last summer as a fill-in for the injured Ronald Acuña Jr., shoehorning him into right field with Marcell Ozuna locked into the DH role. Soler isn't really an outfielder any longer -- the Giants had played him only as a DH -- so it was pretty clear the Braves had to trade him.

With that in mind and knowing Soler will make $16 million each of the next two seasons, getting anything back is fine and Canning could at least be a No. 5 starter. He gives the Braves another rotation option if free agent Max Fried signs elsewhere -- which is a strong possibility.

Canning had a 5.19 ERA for the Angels, but he did make 31 starts. He allowed 31 home runs and doesn't generate a ton of swing-and-miss, but let's just say that the Braves, with all of their pitching success, are likely to get more out of him than the Angels did.

Angels grade: D

I can sort of see the Angels' thinking here: Soler is one year removed from a 36-homer season with the Marlins. He has power and gets on base, and the Angels need offense like the rest of us need air to breathe.

But he's also a guy you don't want in the outfield, his 2023 sticks out from his other recent seasons -- and don't the Angels have to at least consider making Mike Trout primarily a DH just to try to keep him healthy more? Now that option is blocked, unless they play Soler in the field.

And it's not like the Angels are deep in starting pitchers to replace Canning. No doubt, they'll attempt to dig into free agency per Arte Moreno's stated desire to be more competitive in 2025. We'll see. -- Schoenfield