Now that the trade deadline is over, it's a good time to look forward to what free agency has to offer this winter. It's a strong, well-balanced group, but -- as in the past two years with Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani -- there's one marquee name. This year, it's Juan Soto.
A few months ago, I did a deep dive on Soto's market, getting contract predictions from 28 industry insiders. Most of the group coalesced around a $500 million guarantee, already an industry-shaping number. And since then, Soto has been even better, so expectations have moved slightly northward.
Soto will lead the way, but there are plenty of big names expected to get big deals this winter. Here are the best of them -- broken into four tiers -- as of right now, along with another group of players whose decisions could impact the market.
Tier 1: The GDP of a small country
Juan Soto, OF, New York Yankees
The biggest contract that agent Scott Boras has ever negotiated is Bryce Harper's 13-year, $330 million deal in February 2019 -- and Soto will easily clear that. One clear benchmark for him is the total deal that Manny Machado has gotten from San Diego. He signed for 10 years and $300 million in the same offseason as Harper but opted out after five years to sign an 11-year, $350 million extension. That adds up to a 16-year, $500 million guarantee over two contracts.
At least 10 years with $500 million guaranteed are two big, round numbers to look for here. As I laid out in my previous piece, how much beyond those two numbers Soto can get will be a function of the handful of people who run the three to five teams that have interest in bidding in that area.
Tier 2: Almost surely over $200 million
Corbin Burnes, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Burnes was initially in the next tier, but I think it makes more sense to separate him as he might make $100 million more than those players. There aren't a ton of comps to point to for Burnes. Due to his age (he turns 30 in October), he is very unlikely to get as much as the Los Angeles Dodgers gave to then-25-year-old Yoshinobu Yamamoto last winter (12 years, $325 million). Burnes is better than Aaron Nola, who landed the second-biggest pitcher contract last winter (seven years, $172 million).
There were only three pitcher contracts over $200 million before last winter: Zack Greinke got $206.5 million from Arizona before the 2016 season and Stephen Strasburg got $245 million from Washington before the 2020 season, the same winter Gerrit Cole got $324 million from the Yankees. It would be reasonable for Burnes and Boras to aim for the third-biggest pitcher guarantee of all time, besting the $245 million that Boras got Strasburg five years ago.
Tier 3: The $100 million to $200 million-ish guys
Position players
Alex Bregman, 3B, Houston Astros
Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets
Matt Chapman, 3B, San Francisco Giants
Willy Adames, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
Ha-Seong Kim, SS, San Diego Padres
Starters
Blake Snell, LHP, San Francisco Giants
Max Fried, LHP, Atlanta Braves
Jack Flaherty, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Interestingly, four of these players (Bregman, Alonso, Chapman and Snell) are also Boras clients, and three others (Fried, Flaherty and Adames) are CAA. Those two agencies could have a heavy hand in dictating how the market plays out this offseason.
Bregman could clear $200 million, but it might not be by much. The 29-year-old Alonso seems like he'll land in the same range as first basemen Freddie Freeman (six years, $162 million before the 2022 season) and Paul Goldschmidt (five years, $130 million before the 2019 season); he's two years younger than both at contract time, even though his résumé is a bit weaker.
Chapman and Snell are projected to opt out of their pillow deals signed late last winter. Chapman has had a huge year, with already his best WAR since 2019, and will have an easy choice to decline his $17 million player option. He seems in line to get a nine-figure deal.
Snell is a bizarre case. He signed late in mid-March and started off slow, with a 10.42 ERA through five starts and a FIP/xFIP over 4.00. He missed time with an adductor strain and is now on an absolute tear: 7 starts, 45⅓ IP, 14 H, 5 R, 14 BB, 60 K, 0.99 ERA. His average velocity for the 2024 season is a career-high 96.1 mph. In some ways, he's as good as he's ever been, but this is also a player who signed a two-year deal last winter after winning his second Cy Young Award. I have to think there's a nine-figure deal out there for him this winter, but I've been fooled before.
Fried should comfortably get nine figures, and I think Flaherty -- who is now showing what scouts have been expecting since 2019 -- will, too. Adames has quietly posted four straight three-to-five-WAR seasons as a consistently above-average offensive threat who plays a steady-to-good shortstop. Going into his age-29 season, you'd think he has at least five years and a nine-figure sum coming his way. Kim is a month younger than Adames with similar offensive and defensive ability.
Cody Bellinger -- also a Boras client -- will end up in this tier if he decides to opt out of his deal with the Chicago Cubs (more on that later).
Tier 4: The $40 million to $80 million-ish guys
Starters
Luis Severino, RHP, New York Mets
Nick Pivetta, RHP, Boston Red Sox
Yusei Kikuchi, LHP, Houston Astros
Nathan Eovaldi, RHP, Texas Rangers
Sean Manaea, LHP, New York Mets
Relievers
Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Tanner Scott, LHP, San Diego Padres
Clay Holmes, RHP, New York Yankees
Carlos Estevez, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Power hitters
Christian Walker, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
Anthony Santander, OF, Baltimore Orioles
Teoscar Hernandez, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
There are another half dozen or so players you could toss in here -- such as Nick Martinez, Tyler O'Neill or Max Kepler -- but I had to cut things off somewhere. There are also several candidates for big one-year deals who need to prove their health or bounce back from a down year -- Shane Bieber, Walker Buehler, Paul Goldschmidt and Gleyber Torres among them. That group could also look for bigger total guarantees and land around this amount if things break right.
The wild cards
Roki Sasaki, RHP, Nippon Professional Baseball (Japan)
Cody Bellinger, OF, Chicago Cubs
Jordan Montgomery, LHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Gerrit Cole, RHP, New York Yankees
Here is where some of the biggest intrigue resides. There are three players with potential opt-outs who I believe will end the winter on the same rosters, the biggest name of which is Cole. This winter, the Yankees ace can opt out of the four years and $144 million remaining on his deal, but New York can basically void that if it tacks on another year at $36 million, which I would expect the team to do.
Montgomery will make either $22.5 million or $25 million next season, depending on whether he makes 23 starts this year. It makes sense for him to return to Arizona at a good number and hope to bounce back and hit the market again.
Bellinger has a $27.5 million player option with a $2.5 million buyout (a $25 million net decision). I think he also could benefit from hitting the market on a higher note than he will at season's end, but there's also a compelling case for him to get a chance to hit the market one more time before he turns 30 next July. I could see him opting out to be able to tack on a couple more years at the end of his Cubs deal -- call it a four-year deal for $90 million to $100 million.
From across the Pacific, there are four notable potential posting names who could have eight-figure upside: NPB third baseman Munetaka Murakami (who turns 25 this winter), KBO second baseman Hyeseong Kim (who turns 26 this winter), NPB righty Kona Takahashi (who turns 28 this winter) and NPB lefty Shinnosuke Ogasawara (who turns 27 in October).
The biggest name, though, would have a very different kind of free agency. Sasaki, who turns 23 in November, has a fascinating decision to make. If he waits two years to come to the United States, he can be posted as a big league free agent. He would figure to get at least a $200 million guarantee, maybe even a Yamamoto-level deal, if not more.
If Sasaki comes over this winter, he would be limited to the international bonus pools, like Shohei Ohtani was when he signed for $2.3 million before the 2018 season. That means the most Sasaki could get is around a $7 million bonus (and no guaranteed big league money). Since money likely wouldn't be the biggest factor in his choice of team, he might have to settle for as little as a few million, depending on which club he picks and how many deals they've already struck.
I checked with a half dozen team sources who are monitoring this situation, and they all put the odds that Chiba Lotte, Sasaki's club, will post him this winter at over 50%, with one saying there's a 90% chance.
Why would Sasaki do this? From a financial perspective, it seemed illogical when Ohtani did it, too, but it worked out just fine (not to mention the nine figures of off-field earnings he earned even while making arbitration salaries with the Los Angeles Angels). For players of this caliber, the allure of moving to the top level of competition after dominating your domestic league -- with a big off-field payoff immediately, as well as a potentially giant free agent payout in six years -- does make sense.
The other question is whether Sasaki would be posted before or after Dec. 15, which is when the international signing period closes. If he is, only five to seven teams even have seven figures of bonus money left, with the Los Angeles Dodgers leading the way at under $3 million (the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees, who traded last month for more pool space, are believed to be second and third).
If he waits to sign a deal until the next international signing period starts on Jan. 15, any of the 30 teams could conceivably renege on verbal deals they've made and offer him their entire pool, which for the current period ranges from $4.65 million to $7.11 million -- and the next period should feature similar pool amounts. Either way, a whirlwind recruiting process will kick off once Sasaki and Chiba Lotte make their intentions known.