We're now at the standard check-in time for an update on my pro prospect rankings. Since my last edition in late May, the Nos. 1, 2, 7 and 8 prospects have graduated. It's been a busy summer in terms of movement: The trade deadline saw several top prospects change teams, the best draft class in at least a decade has been added, and a handful of prospects charged up the board.
As always, these players are ranked in consultation with MLB scouts and executives mixed with my opinion for a balance of their upside, certainty and distance to the big leagues, as a proxy for universal trade value. More on this process and eligibility is here.
60 FV Tier
1. Jackson Holliday, SS, Baltimore Orioles
Age: 19 Level: Double-A
Holliday was fourth in late May, in a coin flip with Marcelo Mayer, tucked behind two prospects who have since graduated: Elly De La Cruz and Eury Perez. Holliday was red-hot and seemed like he was going to have a bulk of performance to pass Mayer within a few weeks. That's basically what happened, in addition to industry opinion on Mayer cooling a bit.
Holliday was in the three-man tier at the top of the 2022 draft with Termarr Johnson (holding steady at 26th on this list) and Druw Jones (ranked in the others of note), providing a stark reminder that this isn't a science. The roller coaster of picking prep players can swing widely in one year. Everyone had Holliday as a solid athlete who could be a big league shortstop with real offensive potential, above average in both hit and power.
He now might be a plus hitter with plus power -- as a lefty-hitting shortstop -- and is torching Double-A as a 19-year-old. This season is at least a 90th-percentile outcome from draft day expectations, even if the tool grades today aren't wildly different than they were then. With respect to DJ Khaled, the Orioles, on the heels of top prospects in the sport Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, have another one.
2. Colson Montgomery, SS, Chicago White Sox
Age: 21 Level: Double-A
This is an aggressive ranking, but nobody I spoke with has Montgomery outside of their top 10; most have him in their top five. Montgomery has a shot to be a plus hitter with plus power and play shortstop in the big leagues, so the idea is similar to Holliday, but you'd see differences if you watched them. Montgomery is bigger and stronger at 6-foot-3, is one notch slower on the bases and will probably settle at third base eventually, but he's in the Corey Seager range of size/speed/strength/feel: He could thread the needle and be the best of both worlds.
3. Jackson Chourio, CF, Milwaukee Brewers
Age: 19 Level: Double-A
Chourio is two full years younger than Montgomery at the same level with similar raw power. Chourio has a separator in his plus-plus speed, but his approach (34% chase rate, i.e., swinging at pitches out of the strike zone) lags behind Montgomery's (16% chase rate). The analytical models will lean to Chourio because of age vs. level and the margin for error in a projection that his standout speed creates, but I'm leaning toward Montgomery -- for me, the separator is the certainty or polish, where Chourio is currently a bit behind.
4. James Wood, CF, Washington Nationals
Age: 20 Level: Double-A
Wood, a 6-7 center fielder with plus-plus raw power, would be a unicorn in many eras -- but we have Aaron Judge, Oneil Cruz and Elly De La Cruz currently displaying absurd physical tools and size. Wood has a good chance to settle as an acceptable defensive center fielder who likely slides over right field eventually. But that's somewhat irrelevant: The sales pitch here is an above-average on-base percentage and 30-plus homer upside on top of the speed/defense package.
5. Junior Caminero, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
Age: 20 Level: Double-A
As I was chatting with someone about how to line up the top of this list, I casually described Caminero as a baseball proxy for the undersized pass-rusher who lights up the NFL combine; he emphatically agreed. Caminero's listed size is from when he signed; he's now something like 6-3, 215 pounds, and has explosive hands, hips and strength. Like Chourio, he chases a bit (more than league average, at 32%), but Caminero has at least average feel for contact, might hit 40 homers and is nimble enough to play third base.
6. Wyatt Langford, LF, Texas Rangers
Age: 21 Level: High-A
7. Dylan Crews, CF, Washington Nationals
Age: 21 Level: Low-A
8. Paul Skenes, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Age: 21 Level: Low-A
I'll keep these three in the same order I had them for my final draft rankings, where I called this a three-way coin flip. I still feel slightly better about Langford's tool package as giving him the best chance at a perennial All-Star, but they're all so close that you can rank them in any order and get a high-five from me. Any of these guys could be one of the faces of the sport in a few years.
I didn't make anyone a 65 FV in this update, a tier I typically save for prospects who are the best in a few years, but I'd say this whole top nine has a chance to break through to that tier within the next year (if they don't graduate first).
9. Ethan Salas, C, San Diego Padres
Age: 17 Level: High-A
When I got Salas' advanced data a few weeks ago, I was shocked at how good it was. I adjust it for age (which obviously helps the youngest guy on the list -- Salas turned 17 in June), and when you normalize his in-zone contact, chase rates, 90th percentile exit velos, ability to lift and hit the ball hard at the same time, etc. for those factors, you could make the case that he's the best prospect in baseball.
He's not right now, because it would be a little silly to believe his development will follow the exact linear progression that this age adjustment makes. Salas' combination of physical tools, soft skills (pitch selection, defensive instincts), age and performance is almost unprecedented; he can't just keep improving at this pace with no hiccups, or he'd be the best athlete we've ever seen. Even the most precocious prospect in recent memory, Bryce Harper, hadn't yet started his draft spring at this exact age; we didn't even know yet that Harper was going to demolish junior college pitching in his age-17 spring.
On paper, there are no weaknesses. Salas is bilingual with above-average defensive tools and the intangibles to match. He's basically above average at every offensive thing you can measure and may end up being plus at all of them. At age 16 and 17, he hit 21% better than league average at Low-A and has since been promoted. He'd be the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft -- where he'd be the age of the prep prospects -- by a mile. Some scouts think he would've been worthy of the top pick in the historic 2023 draft, and I've obviously ranked him to imply that's a legitimate point to consider. In a lot of ways, Salas' early pro career is going the way many thought Jasson Dominguez's would.
To this end, I pitched the idea of ranking Salas second on this list to an executive, and he basically said the analytical models would support that idea. He doesn't sit there because he's played about 50 competitive pro games plus a handful of big league spring training games. He hasn't failed yet, and young catchers almost never improve linearly. Experience in evaluating tells everyone to pump the brakes a bit here and let things develop. But make no mistake, Salas' résumé so far is among the best, not just on this list but in the past few decades.
10. Jackson Merrill, SS, San Diego Padres
Age: 20 Level: Double-A
Here we have a run of accomplished, mid-minors, up-the-middle position players with tools and performance who are just a bit behind this elite top group. Merrill has elite bat-to-ball skills and solid-average power and can probably stick at shortstop.
11. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Boston Red Sox
Age: 20 Level: Double-A
Mayer can also probably stick at shortstop, and he has plenty of offensive upside to profile well even if he doesn't. The buzz is now that he's more of a solidly above-average offensive threat than a truly elite one. (But hitting .260 with 25 homers at shortstop is still really good!)
12. Carson Williams, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
Age: 20 Level: High-A
Williams is an above-average runner and defender at shortstop with true plus power and a solid approach, but his in-zone swing and miss makes some evaluators worry about his ultimate big league upside.
13. Adael Amador, SS, Colorado Rockies
Age: 20 Level: High-A
Amador, a switch-hitter who projects to be a solid defensive shortstop, has taken a big step forward this season, maintaining more walks than strikeouts while ticking up all of his power metrics. While he doesn't have the name recognition of prospects in this area, he's earned this ranking with a loud 2023.
14. Evan Carter, CF, Texas Rangers
Age: 20 Level: Double-A
Like Amador, Carter has an excellent approach and fits at an up-the-middle position, but his bat-to-ball and in-game power are a notch behind, and he plays a less valuable position.
55 FV Tier
15. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Chicago Cubs
Age: 21 Level: Double-A
Like some of the players above, PCA still chases a bit too much, but he has the rest of the package you're looking for in an elite prospect. He has solid bat-to-ball ability, above average power potential, plus speed and plus defense in center field.
16. Masyn Winn, SS, St. Louis Cardinals
Age: 21 Level: Triple-A
Winn is a plus runner who will comfortably stick at short and has an 80-grade cannon for an arm. He's no slouch at the plate, with plus bat-to-ball ability and 15-20 homer upside.
17. Walker Jenkins, RF, Minnesota Twins
Age: 18 Level: Rookie
18. Max Clark, CF, Detroit Tigers
Age: 18 Level: Rookie
Like the three top college players from the 2023 draft, Jenkins (the fifth pick) and Clark (the third) stay together. Both Jenkins and Clark are ranked here a bit ahead of where most No. 1 overall picks typically get slotted (20s or early 30s), underscoring that either could have a Holliday-type rise in the next year.
19. Andrew Painter, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Age: 20 Level: Double-A
Painter had Tommy John surgery last month after hoping to avoid it most of this season. Until the surgery, he was the top pitching prospect in baseball, and many evaluators think he'll reclaim that title after Skenes zooms to the big leagues next season.
20. Coby Mayo, 3B, Baltimore Orioles
Age: 21 Level: Triple-A
Mayo can probably stick at third base, but that's an open question. What's not questioned is his 30-plus homer potential to go with above-average bat-to-ball skills and approach, despite a 6-5 frame.
21. Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Age: 20 Level: Double-A
Tiedemann missed time this spring with biceps inflammation, but after 21⅓ innings this year he is already showing the three plus pitches and starter command from a lower slot that spurred his massive leap forward last season.
22. Cade Horton, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Age: 22 Level: Double-A
Horton is arguably the biggest riser of players in this top 50 from this past spring. He was a somewhat surprising seventh overall pick last summer because of his short track record post-Tommy John surgery at Oklahoma, but there were clear indicators of upside. I sent around a list with him ranked in the 30s, and almost everyone who saw it said he needed to be higher. Horton has a plus fastball, slider and curveball -- with strikeout rates to match -- and he has surprised people with how well he's pitched this season. He could take the mantle of top pitching prospect in baseball if Skenes graduates before he does.
23. Sal Frelick, CF, Milwaukee Brewers
Age: 23 Level: MLB
Frelick has a lower power ceiling, anywhere from eight to 15 homers, but he might be plus at everything else he does.
24. Cole Young, SS, Seattle Mariners
Age: 20 Level: High-A
Young fits in the underappreciated infielder bucket that has produced Jose Altuve, Marcus Semien, Jose Ramirez, Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia and more. Those players aren't the biggest physically or the flashiest defenders, but they can really hit. That can often lead to shocking power upside in the big leagues relative to early minor league batting practice displays of power. That doesn't mean Young will be a perennial All-Star, and while I think the industry has adjusted to understand what it has been missing on these players, I could still be underselling Young.
25. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks
Age: 21 Level: Double-A
The industry has cooled a bit on Lawlar, more often evaluating him as a solid regular at shortstop with solid-to-above-average tools than a potential star with plus tools.
26. Termarr Johnson, 2B, Pittsburgh Pirates
Age: 19 Level: High-A
Johnson is limited in profile as a below-average runner and fringy defender at second base, but he's still ranked up here because, after a slow start, he's raking once again.
27. Tink Hence, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Age: 21 Level: Double-A
Hence checks a lot of boxes with a fresh, loose arm and four above-average-to-plus pitches for strikes. He's been slowly built up, still only at 69⅓ innings this season as a career high, so next year may be when he gets a taste of the big leagues in a platform year in order to get a full season-long workload in 2025.
28. Brooks Lee, 3B, Minnesota Twins
Age: 22 Level: Triple-A
Lee has above-average offensive tools across the board and has for years; he's one of the safer bets on this list to be a solid big leaguer.
29. Marco Luciano, SS, San Francisco Giants
Age: 21 Level: Triple-A
Luciano made a brief cameo earlier this summer for his big league debut, but next year figures to be when he gets extended time. He's still mostly playing shortstop but has projected to a corner for some time. He's a plus power-and-patience sort with some questions on how much contact will be a part of that profile.
50 FV Tier
30. Tyler Soderstrom, C, Oakland Athletics
Age: 21 Level: MLB
Soderstrom is the age of a recent collegiate draftee, and he's in the big leagues playing behind the plate. On the flip side, he's also playing first base and designated hitter just as often, and his pitch selection is holding back his .275-with-30-homers upside at the moment.
31. Roman Anthony, RF, Boston Red Sox
Age: 19 Level: High-A
Anthony has continued his arrow-up campaign with easy plus power and patience, but he needs to lift the ball more to do the damage that would allow him to profile in a corner spot.
32. Jasson Dominguez, CF, New York Yankees
Age: 20 Level: Double-A
Dominguez still hasn't quite had his full breakthrough moment despite performing well, being young for every level and having loud tools his whole career. I think he's a solid everyday player with the potential for a notch or two more than that.
33. Emmanuel Rodriguez, CF, Minnesota Twins
Age: 20 Level: High-A
With much less fanfare, Rodriguez has a similar power-and-patience profile with a chance to be a center fielder. His raw tools aren't quite as impressive as Dominguez's, but you could argue Rodriguez's soft skills are a notch or two better.
34. Dalton Rushing, C, Los Angeles Dodgers
Age: 22 Level: High-A
Rushing is yet another power-and-patience type in this range with good-not-great tools and an uncertain defensive projection. He should at least be good enough to be a part-time catcher with Max Muncy vibes at the plate.
35. Colton Cowser, CF, Baltimore Orioles
Age: 23 Level: MLB
Cowser is yet another player who might play up the middle and draws a lot of walks. His contact rate and in-game power are fringy-to-average, as is his defensive reputation in center field, but he's still a solid player even at the low end of that range. Although Cowser has already reached the big leagues, opinions vary widely on him.
36. Kyle Harrison, LHP, San Francisco Giants
Age: 22 Level: Triple-A
Harrison's command has become a bigger question this season while his two plus pitches from a lower lefty slot are very similar to Tiedemann, who is 16 spots higher. If his command doesn't progress, Harrison could still be a dangerous multi-and-late-inning player, but he has another year or two before that becomes his likeliest outcome.
37. Noelvi Marte, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
Age: 21 Level: Triple-A
Marte is in the next wave of the Reds fun brigade, with a bevy of above-average tools, but his flat swing plane holds back his 30-plus-homer upside at present.
38. Sebastian Walcott, SS, Texas Rangers
Age: 17 Level: Rookie
If it weren't for Salas, Walcott would be the most exciting young international prospect in the low minors. He's a 6-4 potential shortstop out of the Bahamas with plus speed, a plus arm and potential plus-plus power. He'll probably move to a corner eventually, and as you might guess, he can still be a little out of control at times given his physical gifts and youth, but it's hard to set a ceiling for him right now.
39. Endy Rodriguez, C, Pittsburgh Pirates
Age: 23 Level: MLB
Rodriguez draws solid-average tool grades across the board and is successfully keeping his head above water in his early exposure to the big leagues.
40. Colt Keith, 3B, Detroit Tigers
Age: 22 Level: Triple-A
Keith may be a below-average runner and a below-average defender even at a corner position, but he's an above-average hitter with an above-average approach and ability to get to his plus raw power in games.
41. Mick Abel, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Age: 21 Level: Double-A
Abel's stuff has progressed as many expected it would when he was the top prep arm in the 2020 draft, but his command hasn't, so he'll hang in the middle of the list until that breakthrough.
42. Logan O'Hoppe, C, Los Angeles Angels
Age: 23 Level: MLB
O'Hoppe was off to a strong big league debut when he suffered a shoulder injury that knocked him out for almost four months, but he's back on rehab assignment in the minors now. If he can deliver on the promise he's already shown -- average offense, average-to-slightly-above defense -- he'll be one of the top dozen catchers on Earth.
43. Zack Gelof, 2B, Oakland Athletics
Age: 23 Level: MLB
Gelof has also exceeded expectations in the big leagues already, and while he isn't really a star type, he'll likely settle with above-average power and solid on-base presence. He also can play second or third base well.
44. Harry Ford, C, Seattle Mariners
Age: 20 Level: High-A
Ford fits well with the group of players 10 spots higher who have excellent approaches, solid-average tools and questions about their up-the-middle defense. Ford can probably stay behind the plate, but he's an above-average runner who could play a lot of other positions, too.
45. Jett Williams, SS, New York Mets
Age: 19 Level: High-A
Williams is short -- he's listed at 5-6 -- but his limitations may stop there. He can capably play the middle infield or center field and is a plus-plus runner as well as a standout hitter with a strong approach and feel in games to get to his solid-average raw power.
46. Drew Gilbert, CF, New York Mets
Age: 22 Level: Double-A
Gilbert, acquired from Houston in the Justin Verlander trade, was my top pick to click in the 2022 draft, where he went 28th overall. (I had him ranked 11th.) He's been as I've expected in pro ball, with above-average contact and approach, average power, plus speed and good enough center-field defense. He's more of a Brett Gardner type than a star, but that's super valuable for six cost-controlled seasons.
47. Curtis Mead, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
Age: 22 Level: MLB
Mead has had a disappointing year and, like Colt Keith, has an unclear defensive home, but he can really hit and has above-average power.
48. Jeferson Quero, C, Milwaukee Brewers
Age: 20 Level: Double-A
Quero is in Double-A and younger than all the recent collegiate draftees, but he's also a plus defender behind the plate with plus raw power and plus bat control. He's limited by his high chase rate (38%), but he doesn't need to improve it by much to be a really good all-around big league catcher.
49. Heston Kjerstad, RF, Baltimore Orioles
Age: 24 Level: Triple-A
Kjerstad has some similar issues to Quero with a 34% chase rate, but he also has plus power and a feel for the bat head. Fixing out-of-zone chase is, in many teams' opinion, the easiest hitting skill to teach, and Kjerstad's quality of contact is very strong. He's just behind Quero because of his lack of defensive value.
50. Jackson Jobe, RHP, Detroit Tigers
Age: 21 Level: High-A
I thought Jobe would be outside of the top 50 for a while after he had an underwhelming pro debut in 2022 and missed the first half of 2023 with a back injury. He's come back red-hot, showing why he was the third overall pick in 2021 and working his way up this list throughout the process. So far this season, Jobe has thrown 33 innings with 47 strikeouts and four walks.
30 others of note
MLB (2)
Johan Rojas, CF, Philadelphia Phillies
Mason Miller, RHP, Oakland Athletics
Triple-A (9)
Ronny Mauricio, SS, New York Mets
Connor Phillips, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Tyler Black, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers
A.J. Smith-Shawver, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Orelvis Martinez, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
Kyle Manzardo, 1B, Cleveland Guardians
Cade Povich, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
Ben Brown, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Everson Pereira, CF, New York Yankees
Double-A (9)
Luisangel Acuna, SS, New York Mets
Carson Whisenhunt, LHP, San Francisco Giants
Nick Frasso, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Bryan Ramos, 3B, Chicago White Sox
Brady House, SS, Washington Nationals
Ty Madden, RHP, Detroit Tigers
Owen Caissie, RF, Chicago Cubs
Chase Hampton, RHP, New York Yankees
Edgar Quero, C, Chicago White Sox
High-A (5)
Edwin Arroyo, SS, Cincinnati Reds
Spencer Jones, RF, New York Yankees
Chase DeLauter, RF, Cleveland Guardians
Robby Snelling, LHP, San Diego Padres
Chase Petty, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Low-A (5)
Josue De Paula, RF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Noah Schultz, LHP, Chicago White Sox
Dylan Lesko, RHP, San Diego Padres
Dyan Jorge, SS, Colorado Rockies
Druw Jones, CF, Arizona Diamondbacks