We're less than a week away from the MLB trade deadline on July 30, and things are finally starting to heat up with Randy Arozarena headed to the Seattle Mariners in the first major deal of this deadline
While we wait for more trades that will define this summer to occur, we asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield to share the deals they most want to see. The emphasis there is on want -- some of the players we get into might be unlikely to move at this point, but there's still an argument that can be made for dealing them.
With that said: Where do Luis Robert Jr., Tarik Skubal, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and other stars land in their proposals? Let's find out.
Deals that would surprise the baseball world
The Detroit Tigers should trade Tarik Skubal to the ...
Doolittle: I always feel compelled to lead off this annual piece by restating that these are trades we'd like to see. The splashier names originate from the rumor mill and we lean towards those who seem likely to actually move. This year, I'm not sure I see much in the way of true blockbusters happening. To an extent, I hope I'm wrong -- because active trade deadlines are fun, so we'll see. This extended caveat is exemplified by Skubal, who would provide a significant rotation boost to any team that landed him and would bring back a sizable prospect haul for the Tigers. At the same time: For the life of me, I don't understand why the Tigers would trade him, no matter how often his name gets floated in whispers.
If the Brewers were the kind of team to cash in significant prospect value for a splashy in-season upgrade, the fit between them and Skubal is ideal. They do a great job with pitchers, who tend to get better in Milwaukee even as GMs, managers and pitching coaches change. Skubal would be the ideal ace to build a postseason rotation around. Miller Park can be tough for flyball pitchers, but Skubal isn't that and would be a good bet to translate his skills to the new park. Even with Christian Yelich injured, Milwaukee has a surplus of young bats, especially outfielders. That might interest Detroit, even if my instincts tell me what ought to interest Detroit even more is signing Skubal to an extension.
Schoenfield: As the old saying goes, a fair trade has to cause some pain on both sides. The Orioles love their prospects. They have been great at developing their prospects. Last year, they kept all their top prospects -- and promptly lost in the first round of the playoffs. They have three of the top 20 consensus prospects in the game in Jackson Holliday, Samuel Basallo and Coby Mayo. It would be painful to acquire Skubal as a deal certainly starts with one of them.
Skubal is an ace, a difference-maker, and he's not just a rental. He can help the Orioles if Corbin Burnes departs next year as a free agent. That's a key point: Without Burnes and presumably without Kyle Bradish (he could miss part of 2025 after undergoing Tommy John surgery last month), the Orioles will be hunting for a top-of-the-rotation starter in the offseason anyway. They may as well do it now. No team can beat the Orioles' offer -- if general manager Mike Elias is willing to go all-in. Can the Orioles win a World Series without Skubal? Sure. I'd just like them to be a little more adventurous at the deadline this time around.
The Toronto Blue Jays should trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to the ...
Doolittle: I know the concept here is trades we'd like to see, so I may be violating that spirit here, because the thought of Vlady Jr. in pinstripes kind of gives me a sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach. But the Bombers need help on the infield corners and the idea of a lineup that cycles through Juan Soto, Aaron Judge and Guerrero four or five times a game would be something to behold.
And then there's the perverse aspect of this notion: Guerrero said that he'd never sign with the Yankees -- "not even dead," which doesn't precisely make sense but you get where he's coming from. (Though, he did soften that stance back in June.) Anyway, I don't know whether the Yankees have the goods to entice the Jays to trade their star player to this particular division rival, but I love the narrative aspect of the idea. It's a form of hate watching.
Schoenfield: Oh, man, talk about another destination that would make fans angry -- in Toronto, of course, but also everywhere else except Houston. GM Dana Brown has talked about adding a mid-rotation starter, but runs are runs, whether you're preventing fewer or scoring more. Vladdy got off to a slow start, but since May 5 he's 15th in the majors in OPS. The Astros, meanwhile, are last in the majors in OPS at first base -- and while much of that was because of Jose Abreu, it's still a position they can upgrade. Imagine a top of the lineup with Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez and Guerrero.
As for Toronto, I don't disagree with the sentiment to keep Guerrero and try again in 2025. But ... George Springer, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt will all be a year older. The Jays are in a tough division and would still have to fix everything that went wrong this year. I never like to see an organization throw in the towel, but trading Guerrero may be the wisest move for the long term. Granted, the hitch is whether Houston, with a pretty weak farm system, has the goods to acquire Guerrero. I'll say this, though: The Astros have a better chance than the Yankees! (Plus, Vladdy would look pretty cool in orange batting after Alvarez.)
Deals that will likely rule the deadline
The Chicago White Sox should trade Garrett Crochet to the ...
Baltimore Orioles
Doolittle: As Dave mentions above with the Orioles and Skubal, Crochet isn't a rental and would provide coverage after this season for the possible absence/departure of Bradish and Burnes. The White Sox have a major need for young positional talent, and the Orioles have more of that than any other organization in the majors. The complementary needs of these teams seem perfect. That said, Crochet's innings count this season is already way beyond anything he has done as a professional. He's been great, but you still have to worry about him wearing down and being unable to provide the boost a contending team such as Baltimore is looking for in October. Frankly, he's so good that I'd be willing to roll the dice.
Schoenfield: The Guardians score enough runs. They're having perhaps the greatest bullpen season of all time. They play defense. What they need is a starting pitcher -- not just for October, but to help them hold off the Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals. Of course, the Guardians are more frugal than that uncle who has been complaining about the price of milk since 1979. Ahh, but there is a solution here: Crochet is making only $800,000. One night of moderate attendance and good concession sales will cover what he's owed the remainder of the season. All the Guardians have to do is pony up a nice group of prospects. Having lucked into winning the draft lottery and No. 1 pick Travis Bazzana, they can afford to deal the package needed to get Crochet. Reminder: Cleveland hasn't won the World Series since 1948.
They should also trade Luis Robert Jr. to the ...
Doolittle: The Pirates are dead last in bWAR at center field with a collective showing at that spot below replacement level. The good news is that it's not hard to improve from that, and Robert would give them a huge power boost at the dish without sacrificing defense. His team-friendly contract, with team options running through 2027, fits perfectly with the Pittsburgh ethos. Age-wise, Robert fits perfectly with what looks like a multiyear contention window for the Bucs. A deal starting with Termarr Johnson is certainly a risk given Roberts' injury history, but it's time for the Pirates to be aggressive. Baseball needs Pittsburgh's Paul Skenes-led rotation on display in October.
Schoenfield: I'll go to my grave believing this is a trade that works for both teams. Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski knows Johan Rojas' line from last postseason all too well: .093 (4-for-43), 0 RBIs, two runs in 13 games. Rojas wasn't the only player to tank in the NLCS, but that's the point: The Phillies' offense, while more consistent this season, isn't so dominant that they can afford to blow off center field. When Dombrowski won his last title with the Boston Red Sox in 2018, he made the necessary additions to an already great team. He needs to do that again.
No, this isn't as fun as a Pirates deal -- it's simply the rich getting richer -- but the Phillies have done a nice job improving their farm system under Dombrowski to make this kind of trade possible. Adding Robert's powerful bat lengthens the lineup, gives them a Gold Glove-caliber defender and helps counter any move the Dodgers are going to make. The one thing I keep pointing out: You don't know how long these contention windows are going to remain open. Five of the Phillies' top position players are all 30 or older -- that's almost ancient in today's game. Push your chips in when you have maybe the best team in franchise history (and an owner willing to spend the money).
Deals that would add a needed bat to the lineup
The Chicago Cubs should trade Cody Bellinger to the ...
Schoenfield: This, admittedly, would be a little mean. I can only imagine the anguish of Cubs fans if their team, in the midst of a disappointing season, helps out their hated rival. But, hey, this exercise is about trades we want to see -- and this would be fun and help both teams. Let me explain. The Cardinals' side is simple: They have the worst center-field production in the majors. They were hoping to get Tommy Edman back from his season-long wrist injury, but he injured an ankle while on a rehab assignment, and now his return date remains uncertain. Even if he does make it back, there's no guarantee on his production. So getting Bellinger fixes a hole and improves a lineup that is near the bottom in the National League in runs.
For the Cubs, it would be about clearing Bellinger off next year's roster. He has a $27.5 million player option for next year, which he would appear likely to pick up. If the Cubs think they can count on Pete Crow-Armstrong in center -- admittedly, no sure thing given his subpar offense in 2024 -- they can allocate Bellinger's salary to another bat or pitching help. Bellinger's salary next season for St. Louis would essentially replace Paul Goldschmidt's $26 million salary (he's a free agent after this season) while solving the revolving door in center field.
Odds? Slim! The last significant trade between these teams was in 1995, when Todd Zeile went to the Cubs for Mike Morgan and a couple of prospects.
Philadelphia Phillies
Doolittle: To Dave's point -- hey, maybe the Cubs would throw in the Harry Caray statue as well. After all, Harry started off in St. Louis, right? There are no bad ideas here, people. But a good idea is sending Bellinger to the Phillies, who need a two-way center fielder. This just feels like a Dombrowski move, and assuming Bellinger looks good when he gets back from his hand injury (which is apparently soon), this is the kind of pickup that can tip the World Series probabilities heavily in Philadelphia's direction.
The Colorado Rockies should trade Ryan McMahon to the ...
New York Yankees
Schoenfield: DJ LeMahieu has had an outstanding career, but he has battled injuries this season and, frankly, looks like he might be nearing the end of it. The Yankees are 28th in OPS at third base and need help for Soto and Judge. Look, the Rockies don't like to make trades, and McMahon is signed to a reasonable contract that runs through 2027. But they also need to shake things up. They need depth, and McMahon turns 30 next year. As the saying goes, better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late.
In fact, to make this trade more palatable for both sides, the Rockies should take on LeMahieu's contract, or part of it, in order to get a better package in return. Now ... that could mean asking for Jasson Dominguez as the headliner (or Spencer Jones and others). Calm down, Yankees fans. First off, you get McMahon for three-plus seasons. He's a plus defender, and I think he'll translate just fine away from Coors Field -- note his 95th-percentile hard-hit rate and 86th-percentile walk rate. Give him access to the Yankees' analytics staff and, just like LeMahieu, he might be better after leaving the Rockies. Second, the pressure is on the Yankees to make a big splash this year -- the only one they're guaranteed to have Soto.
Doolittle: Honestly, Dave picked on McMahon first, and I would have suggested the Yankees for him as well. But the reason I like him for L.A. is that he just seems like an ideal Dodgers player given his balance of skills and defensive versatility. McMahon could swing back between second and third base depending on need and upgrade the infield defense at either spot. If the Dodgers aren't terrified at the idea of giving Gavin Lux some return reps at shortstop, it could even free up Mookie Betts to bounce back to the outfield to help that group from time to time. It would also be nice to see McMahon get a bit of spotlight, as he is an underappreciated standout.
The Oakland Athletics should trade Brent Rooker to the ...
Doolittle: Why stop at Arozarena? The Mariners do not resemble a postseason team in any fashion except when you look at their rotation numbers and the current standings. Of course, the latter gets worse for them by the day. Still, this is a franchise that has won the World Series ... checking ... checking ... zero times since the formation of the universe. When you have pitching this good, you have to do whatever you can to support it because it's so hard to sustain. Rooker fits right in with Seattle because he strikes out a lot. We kid! Rooker does strike out too much, but unlike most of Seattle's lineup, he still produces impactful offensive numbers because of how hard he hits the ball. The Mariners need that, and Rooker needs a better context in which to show off his talent.
Minnesota Twins
Schoenfield: As a Mariners fan, I'm just glad to see Brad having them add at the deadline at all. Anyway, I have the A's matching up with the Twins on Rooker. Call it reuniting with Rooker, as he was originally drafted by Minnesota. The Twins are running a mish-mash in left field and DH -- Matt Wallner, Manuel Margot, Austin Martin and Trevor Larnach have all started in left field in the past two weeks. Larnach DHs a lot. Jose Miranda was getting some DH time before he got injured (and was red hot, but he can also slide back to third base when he returns). None of those options are terrible, but Rooker gives them a big bat for the middle of the order -- one that is also currently missing Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa. Add Rooker and get everyone healthy, and this could be the best lineup in the majors.
Deals that would help bolster a pitching staff
The Oakland Athletics should trade Mason Miller to the ...
Cleveland Guardians
Doolittle: Hear me out. The Guardians don't need a closer because the one closer in the sport who has been better than Miller is Emmanuel Clase. Now imagine having both to close out games in October. My heart skipped a beat just typing that sentence. But there's more: The Guardians have run into a lot of injury bad luck with their young pitchers, but their track record in developing ace-level starters is strong. To me, Miller should go back to starting pitching, given the quality and depth of his arsenal, even if he hasn't had to use his complete toolbag much this season. Cleveland would be the perfect place for him to transition back to starting pitching, but only after helping the Guardians end the sport's longest World Series title drought in a few months -- as the most filthy postseason set-up guy since the young Francisco Rodriguez.
Baltimore Orioles
Schoenfield: OK, Brad, I do love the Cleveland idea. Just go for the completely unbeatable bullpen and ride it in October. That could definitely work. Meanwhile, I'm obviously itching for the Orioles to do something big. This one boils down to: Are you going to trust Craig Kimbrel in the postseason? The Phillies did last year, and look how that turned out.
Now, Kimbrel has been more effective this year -- but the Orioles' bullpen in general is more good than great, ranking 10th in the majors in win probability added. So call this an alternative idea to the "acquire Skubal or Crochet" plan. Miller would still be very expensive to get, but not as expensive as one of those premier starting pitchers. And building a deeper bullpen will allow manager Brandon Hyde to have more aggressive hooks on his non-Corbin Burnes, non-Grayson Rodriguez starters. Plus, as we've seen with the Atlanta Braves in 2021 or the Astros in 2022, you can't have too many good relievers to use in the playoffs.
The Detroit Tigers should trade Jack Flaherty to the ...
Los Angeles Dodgers
Doolittle: If they were all healthy, the Dodgers wouldn't need a starting pitcher. But when was the last time their rotation had anything approaching full health? They need some certainty for this group as they begin to think about postseason roster construction. Flaherty, a SoCal native, has thrown like an ace this season for Detroit, matching a career-best strikeout rate with a career-low walk rate, and he has been consistent. He also has a lot to prove after things went south in Baltimore when he was dealt at last year's deadline, especially since he's in a walk year. Talent, motivation and production is a pretty good combo.
Milwaukee Brewers
Schoenfield: Brad had Skubal going to the Brewers earlier in this exercise. I'll echo all those themes -- just with a more affordable option in Flaherty. In general: Let's just hope some of these small-market teams do make some of these deals. We don't want just the Yankees, Phillies and Dodgers stealing the deadline headlines.
The Texas Rangers should trade Kirby Yates to the ...
Kansas City Royals
Schoenfield: The Rangers are about to leapfrog the Mariners and are closing in on the Astros, so they may end up holding. But with so many free agent pitchers -- up to as many as seven significant ones (Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, David Robertson, Jose Leclerc, Michael Lorenzen and Yates) -- they could also end up playing both sides, keeping some and flipping others. The Royals' pen has been ... I don't know if disaster is the right word (it was Wednesday, when James McArthur allowed five runs in the ninth), but it ranks 27th in win probability added, so it hasn't been clutch. In fact, the Rangers shouldn't stop with Yates: I'd add at least one more reliever in addition to him.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Doolittle: Dave stole my answer, because the Royals need a closer in the worst way. Oh well. While I have no stake or unusual interest in the Dodgers, I do sort of get tired of wondering how they will handle the ninth inning in October. Yates would fix that. The Rangers probably won't be subtracting, though. I don't know how they could, given how close their division is and the pitchers they have coming off the IL.