The 2024 MLB trade deadline is almost upon us. But before the big deals start to be made, let's take a step back and revisit last season's most significant swaps -- and see what we might learn from them.
We did this exercise last year, and the same caveats apply. Our initial grades, formulated in the heat of the moment, were not the final word, and neither are most of these revised marks. It often takes years to make a final assessment, always with the considerable benefit of hindsight.
Still, the grades David Schoenfield and I came up with a year ago can be updated with the information we've gleaned since then. Hopefully doing so will refresh our minds about the dynamics that go into the deals we're going to see this month.
Trades that helped win pennants
The trade: The Texas Rangers acquire LHP Jordan Montgomery and RHP Chris Stratton from the St. Louis Cardinals for LHP John King, RHP Tekoah Roby and IF Thomas Saggese.
Initial grades: Rangers A-; Cardinals C
Revised grades: Rangers A+; Cardinals B+
For Texas, this was a trade deadline dream scenario. They made the move to maximize their chances to win the World Series. Not only did they win the World Series, but it is no exaggeration to say they would not have won without this deal, the one that made Montgomery a Texas icon in less than a half a season.
Montgomery joined a worn-out and injury-riddled Texas rotation and sparkled down the stretch, going 4-2 with a 2.79 ERA over 11 starts. Then came the real dividends: Montgomery threw seven shutout innings in the Rangers' two-game win over Tampa Bay in the wild-card round and beat the Astros twice with a 1.29 ERA in the ALCS. Texas had to watch its spending over the winter or else Montgomery would surely have returned to help the Rangers defend their first-ever title.
The Cardinals were out of the race in 2023 and needed to get something back for Montgomery in his walk year. The initial grade reflects my feeling that they could have gotten more for a premier starter, even as a rental.
My stance has softened. Roby and Saggese are ranked highly in the St. Louis system, and for a trade of this type, that's pretty good. Roby's command is an issue -- his pitches find way too many barrels -- but his potential is evident. Saggese mashed in Double-A after the trade. His numbers have cooled this season in Triple-A but he has reached that level at 22, which is by itself a crucial marker.
On top of that, the veteran lefty King has been one of the Cardinals' more reliable relievers since he arrived. The Cardinals made out better in this deal than I anticipated.