The 2024 MLB trade deadline is almost upon us. But before the big deals start to be made, let's take a step back and revisit last season's most significant swaps -- and see what we might learn from them.
We did this exercise last year, and the same caveats apply. Our initial grades, formulated in the heat of the moment, were not the final word, and neither are most of these revised marks. It often takes years to make a final assessment, always with the considerable benefit of hindsight.
Still, the grades David Schoenfield and I came up with a year ago can be updated with the information we've gleaned since then. Hopefully doing so will refresh our minds about the dynamics that go into the deals we're going to see this month.
Trades that helped win pennants
The trade: The Texas Rangers acquire LHP Jordan Montgomery and RHP Chris Stratton from the St. Louis Cardinals for LHP John King, RHP Tekoah Roby and IF Thomas Saggese.
Initial grades: Rangers A-; Cardinals C
Revised grades: Rangers A+; Cardinals B+
For Texas, this was a trade deadline dream scenario. They made the move to maximize their chances to win the World Series. Not only did they win the World Series, but it is no exaggeration to say they would not have won without this deal, the one that made Montgomery a Texas icon in less than a half a season.
Montgomery joined a worn-out and injury-riddled Texas rotation and sparkled down the stretch, going 4-2 with a 2.79 ERA over 11 starts. Then came the real dividends: Montgomery threw seven shutout innings in the Rangers' two-game win over Tampa Bay in the wild-card round and beat the Astros twice with a 1.29 ERA in the ALCS. Texas had to watch its spending over the winter or else Montgomery would surely have returned to help the Rangers defend their first-ever title.
The Cardinals were out of the race in 2023 and needed to get something back for Montgomery in his walk year. The initial grade reflects my feeling that they could have gotten more for a premier starter, even as a rental.
My stance has softened. Roby and Saggese are ranked highly in the St. Louis system, and for a trade of this type, that's pretty good. Roby's command is an issue -- his pitches find way too many barrels -- but his potential is evident. Saggese mashed in Double-A after the trade. His numbers have cooled this season in Triple-A but he has reached that level at 22, which is by itself a crucial marker.
On top of that, the veteran lefty King has been one of the Cardinals' more reliable relievers since he arrived. The Cardinals made out better in this deal than I anticipated.
The trade: The Rangers acquire RHP Max Scherzer from the New York Mets for IF Luisangel Acuna.
Initial grades: Rangers B+; Mets B
Revised grades: UNCHANGED
The only thing keeping me from bumping this up for the Rangers is Scherzer's ongoing injury problems. But when he has pitched for Texas, he has been, well, Max Scherzer, and the Rangers did win the title. If Scherzer helps boost the Rangers back into the 2024 race and they go on another run, this can still end up as an A+.
Though ... parting with Acuna was tough then and perhaps might become even more so down the line. One of the Mets' top-ranked prospects, Acuna is in Triple-A at 22, but his game has rough edges. Still, his speed, defense and versatility are exciting. Hopefully we get a glimpse of him at Citi Field before the end of the season.
The trade: The Rangers acquire LHP Aroldis Chapman from the Kansas City Royals for LHP Cole Ragans and OF Roni Cabrera.
Initial grades: Rangers A-; Royals C-
Revised grades: Rangers A-; Royals A+; Doolittle F
OK, in fairness to the Rangers and me, Ragans rocketed into the stratosphere in a way no one could have foreseen, and he did so almost right away after moving to Kansas City. One thing Texas GM Chris Young told me about the deal was that as much as he knew he needed to upgrade the Rangers' bullpen -- and adding Chapman accomplished that -- he was also sure that whatever Ragans' ceiling was, he would reach it because of his work ethic. Ragans, a year later, is one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Chapman, a true rental, is now plying his trade for the Pirates, but he was an important contributor to the Rangers' title. As for me, I thought the Royals could have done better had they not unloaded Chapman so quickly in this trade, which happened well in advance of the deadline. But they could not have possibly done better than what they ended up with in Ragans.
The trade: The Arizona Diamondbacks acquire OF Tommy Pham from the Mets for IF Jeremy Rodriguez.
Initial grades: Diamondbacks B; Mets B
Revised grades: Diamondbacks A-; Mets B+
For now, this looks like a pretty straightforward win-win trade. Pham wasn't great down the stretch for Arizona, but he came up huge in two of the Diamondbacks' postseason series, including the World Series when he put up a 1.165 OPS. Pham's intensity really stood out for Arizona during the D-backs' surprise run to the pennant.
As for the Mets, Rodriguez, 18, hadn't played outside of the Dominican when the trade was made. This season, he has played for the Mets in the Florida Complex League and his rookie-ball numbers aren't bad. There's nothing obvious that would shoot his name up the prospect rankings, but his combination of average, walks and steals is a starting point. It's what you want in a deadline deal like this for a player in a walk year.
The trade: The Diamondbacks acquire RHP Paul Sewald from the Seattle Mariners for IF Josh Rojas, OF Dominic Canzone and IF Ryan Bliss.
Initial grades: Diamondbacks B; Mariners C
Revised grades: Diamondbacks A; Mariners D+
This was an odd trade from a Seattle perspective from the start, and it hasn't really improved with a year's perspective, even with Bliss reaching the majors this year.
Sewald was a crucial pickup for an Arizona bullpen that crystallized with him at the back of it late in the season, fueling the Diamondbacks' run to the World Series. Deadline pickups just don't get much better than that. Sewald is still there, and while he'll never be confused with peak Goose Gossage, he's still reliable (for a reliever) and pitching at the same level as he did after the deal.
The Mariners didn't react well to the loss of their closer initially, but their failure to return to the playoffs was more due to a simple lack of general baseball production than the bullpen subtraction. Canzone has hit .213 with a .671 OPS since arriving, offering little except the occasional long ball. Rojas has been a steady better-than-league-average bat against righties, but the Seattle lineup needs much more than that. Bliss is a speed guy with a flashy glove who, so far, looks like another Mariner who strikes out too much. But the returns on him are very early.
Contender deals that didn't pan out
The trade: The Baltimore Orioles acquire RHP Jack Flaherty from the Cardinals for IF Cesar Prieto, RHP Zack Showalter and LHP Drew Rom.
Initial grades: Orioles A; Cardinals C
Revised grades: Orioles D+; Cardinals C+
The Orioles get dinged here not because they dealt three players from their deep system but simply because the player they got, Flaherty, did not provide the short-term boost contenders want in a deadline acquisition. It's not that Baltimore's process was wrong or that we graded them too high at the time. Flaherty just didn't pitch well for the Orioles (6.71 ERA) and ended up as a spare arm in Baltimore's postseason bullpen. Making matters worse, two of Baltimore's starters in its three-game sweep at the hands of Texas in the ALDS (Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer) didn't make it out of the second inning. That was the moment they really could have used peak Flaherty -- kind of like the Tigers version who has mostly excelled this season after Detroit nabbed him in free agency. Ah, baseball.
We'll give the Cardinals a mild bump up here just because Prieto has hit well in Triple-A and, at 25, is due to get a shot at the majors sooner than later. And while Showalter is still in Low-A, he has pitched well there in a back-of-the-bullpen role and is worth keeping an eye on. Alas, Rom got eight starts in the majors for St. Louis after the trade last year and was rocked (8.02 ERA), then injured his shoulder this spring. If he pitches at all in 2024, it'll be very late in the campaign. The Cardinals surely hoped for more of a high-whiff lefty who looked ready for the Show when they acquired him.
The trade: The Houston Astros acquire RHP Kendall Graveman from the Chicago White Sox for C Korey Lee.
Initial grades: Astros B-; White Sox B
Revised grades: Astros D; White Sox B
This was a tough one for Houston based on outcomes, not process. Graveman turned up with a sore shoulder and missed the 2023 postseason. He ended up requiring surgery that is likely to keep him out for all of 2024, though he hasn't been fully ruled out of a late-season return.
Lee has always been a defense-first backstop. When Chicago picked him up during the same trade season in which they acquired bat-first catcher Edgar Quero from the Angels, it looked like the ChiSox had locked down a nice long-term, complementary catching duo.
That notion might still work out. Lee's defensive markers are solid, but his bat is perhaps a little bit worse than hoped. He's still only 24, and while his strike zone indicators are dreadful, he has at least shown some isolated power.
The trade: The San Diego Padres acquire LHP Rich Hill and Ji Man Choi from the Pittsburgh Pirates for 1B Alfonso Rivas, LHP Jackson Wolf and OF Estuar Suero.
Initial grades: Padres B-; Pirates B
Revised grades: Padres F; Pirates D; Doolittle F-
Oof. What a stinker of a deal this one turned out to be. While I wasn't exactly effusive about the deal, I saw the reasoning for both sides and graded accordingly. But this trade worked for exactly no one. Let's just go down the list.
Hill had an 8.23 ERA over 10 outings for a Padres team seeking to bolster its doomed playoff push. Choi hit .065. That's OH-SIXTY-FIVE. Hill, at last word, was happily coaching his son's Little League team. Choi is hitting .191 for the Mets in Triple-A.
The Pirates hardly fared better, though they had little reason to hang on to either Hill or Choi. Wolf was designated for assignment late in spring training and traded back to San Diego, and he now has a 7.42 ERA in Triple-A. Rivas was waived after the season and has since been with the Guardians, Angels and Cardinals.
The trade: The Toronto Blue Jays acquire SS Paul DeJong from the Cardinals for RHP Matt Svandon.
Initial grades: Blue Jays A; Cardinals C
Revised grades: Blue Jays D, Cardinals C
Dave gave Toronto top marks for quickly seizing on the chance to grab DeJong in the immediate aftermath of an injury to Bo Bichette. Dave noted that DeJong is neither "Honus Wagner or Cal Ripken Jr." and it's hard to refute that. In all seriousness, it's only in hindsight that we can declare this a bad deal for the Jays, and that would be the case even if they hadn't given up anything. That's how bad DeJong was during his brief Toronto career, during which he went 3-for-44 with no extra-base hits before getting released. Thus his performance actually hurt the Jays while he was around.
Still, you can see what Toronto was doing. DeJong, after being picked up by the Giants, hit a homer and drove in four runs in his very first game for Frisco. Go figure. This season, with the White Sox, DeJong has labored in a perpetually low-leverage universe but he has hit well enough to be a deadline target once again. As for Svandon, the Cardinals did fine to get an arm for DeJong as he continues to plug away as a Double-A closer, at 25 a tick older than the average player at that level.
The trade: The Chicago Cubs acquire IF Jeimer Candelario from the Washington Nationals for IF Kevin Made and LHP DJ Herz.
Initial grades: Cubs B+; Nationals C+
Revised grades: Cubs D+; Nationals A-
Candelario was a bat the Cubs sorely needed for what looked like a good chance at a return to the postseason for Chicago. For two games, it looked like this was actually an A+++ for Chicago, as Candelario went 8-for-9 with a walk and six runs in his first two games for the Cubs. He hit .188 with a .670 OPS thereafter and the Cubs missed a wide-open shot at October baseball.
Making things worse for the Cubs is that a pitcher they could use right now, Herz, has reached the majors and put up some intriguing numbers once he left the automated strike zone in the minors behind. He walked 7.3 batters per nine innings in Triple A to start the season, and is at 2.6 over his first seven big league starts. Even better, his double-digit strikeout rate remained after the promotion. Herz was recently sent back down, perhaps in an effort to manage his workload.
Made remains a work in progress as a speed and defense middle infielder with little power and not enough of a hit tool to offset the lack of pop. He was recently promoted to Double-A.
The trade: The Tampa Bay Rays acquire RHP Aaron Civale from the Cleveland Guardians for 1B Kyle Manzardo.
Initial grades: Rays A-; Guardians C-
Revised grades: Rays C-; Guardians B-
I can't speak for Dave, but I will on occasion dock a team based on what I see as an inability to treat a short-term opportunity with enough gravity, especially if I see it as an organizational pattern. This explains the Guardians' initial grade, even as I acknowledged Manzardo as a quality hitting prospect.
A year later, Manzardo remains a quality hitting prospect, one who now has reached the majors. He did not get there in time to aid Cleveland's flickering 2023 hopes for a late-season run, so my initial pique was never assuaged. That's not on Manzardo, of course, and Cleveland is surely and justifiably glad to have him in the fold with a high-upside bat and his just-begun service time clock.
Civale looked like the perfect pickup for the injury-riddled Rays. You almost take it for granted that when the Rays see something in another team's player that they'll get that and more once they bring him into the fold. Alas, that wasn't the case with Civale, who had a 5.07 over 17 starts for Tampa Bay and did not appear for the Rays in their loss to Texas in the wild-card round.
The Rays recently shipped Civale to the Brewers for speedy infielder Gregory Barrios, who has started his Rays career in High-A. We'll see how it works out but maybe Barrios will redeem this transaction tree eventually.
The trade: The Los Angeles Dodgers acquire RHPs Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly from the White Sox for OF Trayce Thompson and RHPs Nick Nastrini and Jordan Leasure.
Initial grades: Dodgers C+; White Sox B
Revised grades: Dodgers D+; White Sox B
There were all kinds of red flags in Lynn's performance before this deal, but at the time, you almost assumed the Dodgers would "fix" him as they have with so many others. Lynn had some nice moments in L.A. but he had those in Chicago as well. They didn't offset his propensity for doling out home run balls as if he were shooting T-shirts out of an air gun. Kelly has been Kelly. Sometimes his stuff works, sometimes it doesn't and it feels like this could go on for him in this way until the 22nd century.
Anyway, Lynn's longball-itis reached its zenith in the Dodgers' last game of 2023 when he coughed up four solo homers in the third inning to Arizona in a season-ending loss. The last dinger, to Gabriel Moreno, ostensibly ended Lynn's Dodgers career.
Leasure and Nastrini have both made their big league debuts for the White Sox this season. The early returns are ... well, they are works in progress. But they are two young pitchers Chicago didn't have before, and moving Lynn and Kelly helped them turn the page on a squandered era.
One megadeal where both teams won (still)
The trade: The Astros acquire RHP Justin Verlander from the Mets for OFs Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford
Initial grades: Astros A; Mets A
Revised grades: UNCHANGED
The Astros got Verlander back to win another title. It hasn't happened (yet) but neither Verlander nor this trade is at fault. We might have to revisit this grade if Verlander keeps falling prey to the injury bug, which can happen to a 40-something.
Gilbert and Clifford are now two of the Mets' top five prospects. Gilbert's 2024 has barely launched because of a hamstring problem, while Clifford has been putting up big power numbers in Double-A.