Last year's draft class was a historic one, both for the top tier of talent (the five top players selected all landed in the top 15 prospects in all of baseball on my recent Top 100) and the depth (with 2023 draftees littering the back half of that Top 100 list).
This year's group appears to be a more typical draft class. It doesn't feature close to the star power of 2023, but it does have plenty of candidates to improve throughout the spring and the depth is seen across the industry as strong. The standout quality at this point is that the top 13 on my list are all college players. I do expect there will be at least one prep prospect in the top 10 picks come draft day, but it'll probably take a month or so for that player to emerge.
You can check out more on the Future Value (FV) system, the scouting scale, and see where these players could slot into a top 100 or your team's prospect list.
Here's a snapshot of where we stand right now, leading into the second weekend of college baseball and with the high school season just getting started in warm weather states.
50 FV tier
1. J.J. Wetherholt (21.8), 2B, West Virginia
2. Travis Bazzana (21.9), 2B, Oregon State
3. Nick Kurtz (21.1), 1B, Wake Forest
4. Chase Burns (21.4), RHP, Wake Forest
Wetherholt will miss this weekend's series against Charlotte due to a hamstring injury, but early indications are that it isn't serious. He's the favorite to go No. 1 overall right now -- but not by a ton and there's some expectation that the Guardians will price-shop the pick at least as much as recent teams.
(Price-shopping a pick means that if it isn't clear who the best player is, Cleveland would take the prospect with the cheapest signing bonus ask or who is the best value among the players they deem to be in the top tier rather than just selecting the player who grades out slightly better and then paying whatever his asking price is. A classic example is the 2021 draft, when the consensus top two talents -- Marcelo Mayer and Jordan Lawlar -- went fourth and sixth overall, with both getting more bonus money than the first overall pick -- Henry Davis -- received from the Pirates.)
Wetherholt and Bazzana are similar talents. Wetherholt is an above-average runner with an easily plus hit tool and roughly 20 homer upside -- he probably isn't a major league shortstop defensively but should fit fine at second or third base. Bazzana, also a left-handed hitter, is a plus runner who is probably a second baseman, but may be a center fielder. He's also a standout, cerebral hitter, with a tick less raw power than Wetherholt, but possibly a bit better at tapping into it in games right now. Clearly, these two are hard to completely separate right now, so maybe the spring will help differentiate them more.
Kurtz -- another late bloomer who wasn't a big prospect in high school -- has gone bananas at Wake Forest: .345/.496/.704 with 112 walks, 89 strikeouts, and 40 homers in 537 plate appearances. Some scouts think he could be a 70-grade hitter and power hitter, which is something like .280 and 35 homers in the majors -- basically what the 5-WAR peak of Anthony Rizzo looked like. Given the position, there's little margin for error, but Kurtz has done nothing but hit in college.
Burns was the famous one in high school from this group, getting low seven-figure draft bonus interest and showing upper-90s velocity regularly, but the combination of his asking price and reliever risk pushed him to attend Tennessee. He was better than expected as a freshman in Knoxville, striking out 103 while walking just 25, but then converted to a swing relief role and started only eight games as a sophomore. He was still good in that role, but it made those relief questions harder to ignore. Burns transferred to Wake Forest to join its famous pitching development machine and may have turned the corner now, with buzz all fall and preseason that his stuff is as good as ever and his command may be sharp enough to stamp him as a starter. Last week, he worked at 95-100 mph with bat-missing shape and a 70-grade slider while walking only one over six innings in his Wake Forest debut. If Burns keeps this up, I think we're looking at a trajectory of it becoming a national story every time he pitches -- like Paul Skenes, Jack Leiter and Casey Mize in recent years.
45+ FV tier
5. Jac Caglianone (21.4), 1B/LHP, Florida
6. Seaver King (21.0), CF, Wake Forest
7. Charlie Condon (21.1), 1B, Georgia
Caglianone is the tools unicorn of this class, a video game create-a-player run amok. He has shown triple-digit velocity from the left side on the mound along with a plus slider and traits to start, and top-of-the-scale 80-grade raw power from the left side at the plate that shows up in games. He even has enough variety to play the outfield, if needed. His scheduled season pitching debut was rained out last weekend, but he could answer a big question this season by proving that he has the command and consistency to turn a lineup over. At the plate, he'll become a lock to go in the top five if he can cut his chase rate from among the worst in the class to around average -- even ignoring his ability on the mound.
King transferred to Wake Forest from Division 2 Wingate, so he's a very late bloomer relative to his peers who has emerged as an electric plus runner who can really hit and fits somewhere up the middle defensively. The two biggest variables for the industry going into the spring are dialing in what his power upside really is and figuring out what his most likely defensive home will be as a professional, but many saw enough from last summer alone to stamp him as a top-10 pick. Condon is a little easier to peg than King and Caglianone: Condon has 30-homer upside and is a first baseman or maybe corner outfielder, but will go in the top 10 if he keeps hitting.
45 FV tier
8. Vance Honeycutt (21.1), CF, North Carolina
9. Braden Montgomery (21.2), RF, Texas A&M
10. Mike Sirota (21.0), SS, Northeastern
11. Malcolm Moore (20.9), C, Stanford
12. Jonathan Santucci (21.5), LHP, Duke
13. Tommy White (21.4), 3B, LSU
14. Konnor Griffin (18.2), CF/RHP, Jackson Prep HS (MS), LSU commit
15. Brody Brecht (21.8), RHP, Iowa
16. Cam Caminiti (17.9), LHP, Saguaro HS (AZ), LSU commit
17. Bryce Rainer (19.0), SS, Harvard Westlake HS (CA), Texas commit
18. Kaelen Culpepper (21.5), SS, Kansas State
19. Trey Yesavage (20.9), RHP, East Carolina
20. Slade Caldwell (18.1), CF, Valley View HS (AR), Ole Miss commit
21. Drew Beam (21.4), RHP, Tennessee
22. Caleb Lomavita (21.6), C, Cal
23. Cameron Smith (21.4), 3B, Florida State
24. Carter Johnson (18.4), SS, Oxford HS (AL), Alabama commit
25. Dakota Jordan (21.1), CF, Mississippi State
26. Josh Hartle (21.3), LHP, Wake Forest
27. Anthony Silva (21), SS, TCU
28. P.J. Morlando (19.0), RF, Summerville HS (SC), South Carolina commit
29. Carson Benge (21.5), RF/RHP, Oklahoma State
30. Hagen Smith (20.9), LHP, Arkansas
31. Rodney Green (21.2), CF, Cal
32. Ethan Anderson (20.8), C, Virginia
33. Griff O'Ferrall (21.4), SS, Virginia
In a class with no prep players in the top 13 prospects on this list, this tier shows that there is solid top-end depth to the college crop and also features some breakout candidates who could rise within the prep group.
Honeycutt has shown top-10-pick kind of tools since showing up in Chapel Hill, so dialing in his offensive approach and staying healthy this spring would lead to rising stock. Montgomery has pitched in college, but is a hitter-only pro prospect for me. He also profiles as a potential riser if he can dial in his offensive approach, especially while now playing in the SEC after transferring from Stanford. Culpepper had a strong first week and has been steadily moving up since he appeared on the national stage last summer.
Slots 22 through 33 are flush with various kinds of college position players. The in-game power of Smith, Jordan, and Green are the flashiest and likely most valuable tools -- if their hitting ability holds up all spring, they will move up.
Santucci was the biggest arrow-up college pitcher of the opening weekend, delivering on preseason buzz and bouncing back from a fractured elbow. He has above-average stuff and starter traits, so posting each week will ensure that he lands in the top half of the first round. Yesavage was also strong last weekend and could be creeping up to join Santucci in the top 15-20 picks.
Brecht is in the conversation for the best raw stuff in the history of college baseball and has elite athleticism as a 6-foot-4 former Big 10 wide receiver, but his walk rates are just too high right now. His positive traits are so elite that he won't fall out of the top 20-25 picks regardless of that walk rate, but he'll easily go in the top 10 if he shows some progress with control.
Griffin is a toolsy standout who has been well-known for years with legit 30-30 upside, but I'm still skeptical of his in-game hit ability so I'm a bit on the low side here. I think the draft day decision for teams will be if they want to bet on his Jo Adell-like upside at the plate -- though Griffin may also be a first-day-pick caliber pitching prospect and some scouts think he's a good defensive shortstop while some think he should move to center field.
The buzz is growing for Rainer, who also is a top few rounds prospect on the mound but doesn't seem that interested in pursuing pitching in pro ball. He might be a shortstop and has shown massive raw power early this spring. Caldwell is a favorite to become my draft day pick to click as he has clear similarities to previous picks: Tyler Black, Kevin McGonigle and Drew Gilbert. Johnson draws some Gunnar Henderson comps as a possible shortstop from an Alabama high school with a great swing and power potential from the left side.
Caminiti is young for the class (reclassified in June) and is a legit pro prospect as an outfielder who is also in the mid-90s with above-average traits across the board as a pitcher. He'll be easy to see early in the season as half of baseball is in his backyard for the Cactus League. If you evaluate Griffin as a hitter-only, the next prep pitchers aren't until 37 and 41 on this list, so there aren't a ton of first-round types out there for clubs with a taste for the risk and upside of a high school pitcher.
40+ FV tier
34. Thatcher Hurd (21.6), RHP, LSU
35. Jacob Cozart (21.4), C, North Carolina State
36. Luke Holman (21.5), RHP, LSU
37. Ryan Sloan (18.4), RHP, York Community HS (IL), Wake Forest commit
38. Ben Hess (21.8), RHP, Alabama
39. Billy Amick (21.7), 3B, Tennessee
40. Kevin Bazzell (21.2), 3B, Texas Tech
41. Joey Oakie (18.1), RHP, Ankeny Centennial HS (IA), Iowa commit
42. Gage Jump (21.2), LHP, LSU
43. William Schmidt (18.8), RHP, Catholic HS (LA), LSU commit
Hurd didn't have a great season debut while Holman and Hess were excellent in their first appearances. Cozart is underrated defensively but will need to hit to break into the top 30 picks in a deep class of college catchers. Sloan and Oakie are strong projection bets in the upper Midwest while Schmidt has bananas easily plus to plus-plus now stuff. Jump is a common pick-to-click for later in the season as he gets stretched out in longer stints. Amick and Bazzell are grouped together by many scouts as college third basemen with power.
40 FV tier
44. Carson DeMartini (21.4), 3B, Virginia Tech
45. Cole Mathis (21.0), 1B, College of Charleston
46. Jared Thomas (21.0), CF, Texas
47. Walker Janek (21.8), C, Sam Houston State
48. Levi Sterling (17.8), RHP, Notre Dame HS (CA), Texas commit
49. Noah Franco (18.0), RF/LHP, IMG Academy HS (FL), TCU commit
50. Owen Hall (18.6), RHP, Edmond North HS (OK), Vanderbilt commit
I'd bet on at least one of the college position players here taking a jump forward. Sterling is a smooth projection bet with some present stuff while Hall was up to 96 mph in his season debut and some are picking his stuff to spike this spring. Franco has long been an elite prospect in this class, more as a hitter for me but he shows enough on the mound that things could still break that way.
Others of note
(grouped by player demographic)
Colby Shelton (21.6), 3B, Florida
James Tibbs III (21.7), RF, Florida State
Kyle DeBarge (21.0), SS, Louisiana
Cole Messina (21.1), C, South Carolina
Connor Foley (21.0), RHP, Indiana
Matt Ager (21.0), RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Ryan Forcucci (21.6), RHP, UC San Diego
Michael Massey (21.2), RHP, Wake Forest
Wyatt Sanford (18.6), SS, Independence HS (TX), Texas A&M commit
Caleb Bonemer (18.8), SS, Okemos HS (MI), Virginia commit
Cade Arrambide (18.8), C, Tomball HS (TX), LSU commit
Kale Fountain (18.9), 3B, Norris HS (NE), LSU commit
Braylon Payne (18.1), CF, Elkins HS (TX), Houston commit
Boston Bateman (18.8), LHP, Camarillo HS (CA), LSU commit
Duncan Marsten (19.0), RHP, Harvard Westlake HS (CA), Wake Forest commit
Tegan Kuhns (19.2), RHP, Gettysburg Area HS (PA), Tennessee commit
Braylon Doughty (18.7), RHP, Chaparral HS (CA), Oklahoma State commit
Ethan Schiefelbein (18.2), LHP, Corona HS (CA), UCLA commit
Cole Gibler (18.7), LHP, Blue Springs HS (MO), Arkansas commit
Dylan Jordan (18.7), RHP, Viera HS (FL), Florida State commit
William Kirk (18.8), LHP, Ramsey HS (NJ), Virginia commit
David Shields (17.8), LHP, Mt. Lebanon HS (PA), Miami commit
Josh Whritenour (18.6), RHP, A3 Academy HS (FL), Florida commit
Initially, I had over fifty names in this final section, but decided to settle at 23 to keep it indicative of players that were in the conversation for the top 50, rather than just including anyone I think could improve their stock by the time my next list comes out.
Some high school players to monitor in this area: the SoCal prep pitchers (I'd expect one to emerge from that group), Sanford (the actual 51st prospect) and Payne feel likely to move up as Texas prep position players. And the guy I like a bit more than the industry is Jordan, who has an Aaron Nola/Brady Singer type starter kid in terms of physicality, arm slot and approach.