Last fall's World Series featured two teams, the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks, whose presence in the Fall Classic served as the ideal outcome of what were already breakout seasons. For the Rangers, the new champs, it was a breakthrough for the ages.
Not every unexpected contender is going to win a title -- or even make the World Series -- so what exactly is a breakout team? We throw the term around a lot in sports, but we don't spend nearly as much time thinking about what it means. Here's a loose definition:
A breakout team is a team coming off a losing season that beats its established level of play by at least 10 games and winds up with a winning record.
Last season, there were six, including our aforementioned World Series opponents. Joining the Rangers and Diamondbacks were the Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds and Miami Marlins.
Breakout teams are fun, and last season featured a lot of them. There were just two in 2022. The six breakout teams marked the most in a season during the period covered by today's study, which goes back to 2007.
So can we really predict which teams will break out in 2024? Well, we're giving it a go. We identified traits most associated with MLB teams who have made similar jumps (those include prospect rankings, projections, roster age, organizational record, previous leap, luck and free agent spending) and combined them into a single number we'll call The Breakout Index (BRK). In our formula, 100 is average, 110 is a standard deviation above, and anything beyond that is, well, a very strong indicator.
This initial iteration of the model produced about a 35% success rate in identifying past breakout teams. Four of the six breakout clubs from 2023 were correctly flagged by the system. To be eligible this year, a team had to finish under .500 in 2023. If the "under .500" rule was ignored, the Cubs would have emerged as the No. 1 breakout candidate based on their overall traits. Alas, the Cubs won 83 games last season.
Here are the five teams the formula sees as the most likely to have breakout seasons in 2024.
1. Boston Red Sox (BRK: 106.5)
Breakout trait: Organizational record
Boston has had a combined record over .500 from all of its minor league teams in each of the three seasons since the 2020 pandemic season. Our system weighs these seasons in reverse order to reflect how prospects progress toward the majors. The Red Sox dovetail perfectly with a three-year winning percentage progression of .588, .529 and .502. The success of the Boston farm system is also reflected by consensus prospect rankings.
Recent breakout comp: 2019 Minnesota Twins. The Twins had the third-highest weighted organizational record heading into the 2019 season, behind only the Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers. Minnesota then went out and won 101 games, up from 78 the season before.
2. New York Mets (BRK: 106.3)
Breakout trait: Projections
The Mets' roster looks very different than it did a year ago at this time, but even so, forecasts generally have the Mets in the over-.500 range, which would move them toward breakout territory after they sunk to 75 wins in 2023. The Mets also underperformed their run differential by nearly five wins, another trait that suggests positive regression. Basically, even with expectations for the Mets considerably more measured than they were a year ago, there is still a "it can't be that bad again" dynamic in play.
Recent breakout comp: 2014 San Francisco Giants. After a string of winning seasons and two titles in three years, the 2013 Giants sunk to 76 wins. The consensus over/unders had San Francisco at 86 wins entering the following season. That anticipated bounce-back came to fruition with 88 wins and another championship.
3. Pittsburgh Pirates (BRK: 104.9)
Breakout trait: Youth
The Pirates also have good scores in my composite prospect ranking and organizational record categories. All of that is underscored by what, as of now, projects to be the third-youngest roster in the majors. Being young in and of itself doesn't portend a breakout (see: Oakland Athletics), but when it's combined with the other organizational measures, it's at the very least a reason for fans to dream.
Recent breakout comp: 2008 Tampa Bay Rays. A more recent example of a team scoring high in the team age component of Breakout Index and ending up in the playoffs is the 2022 Cleveland Guardians. But why not dream big? The 2008 Rays, under manager Joe Maddon, had the second-youngest team age in the majors. But they leaped from 66 wins to 97 and won the franchise's first American League pennant. So it can happen.
4. Washington Nationals (BRK: 102.9)
Breakout trait: Last-year leap
The early over/unders actually see a step back for the Nationals, but their Breakout Index is bolstered by solid prospect ratings, a young roster and the fact that they got better last year. Washington went from 55 wins in 2022 to 71 in 2023. Breakout Index likes that gain, and as a component in the Nationals' overall dossier, it colors Washington as a breakout candidate.
Recent breakout comp: 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks. You don't have to go back very far to see the club the Nationals would like to emulate. The 2022 D-backs won 74 games, up from 52 in 2021. Arizona tacked on 10 wins in 2023, just good enough to get into the playoffs, and then the Snakes slithered all the way to the World Series.
5. St. Louis Cardinals (BRK: 102.7)
Breakout trait: Free agent spending
The factor driving the Cardinals' score is really the projections category. The markets and forecasting systems alike just don't think St. Louis' 2023 debacle reflects the actual quality of the organization. The free agent component isn't a common driver of breakout success, but that doesn't mean it doesn't happen. The Cardinals haven't spent like the Dodgers or Giants or even the cross-state Kansas City Royals, but they are one of seven teams with a free agent spending score of 100 or better. If nothing else, this reflects that the Cardinals' brass thinks this team can win now.
Recent breakout comp: 2019 Washington Nationals. The Nats' 2018 season wasn't a '23 St. Louis-level catastrophe. But Washington did tumble to 82 wins after winning 97 the season before. (Which, strictly speaking, means they didn't rate as a breakout team in this system.) The 2018 team also had the ninth-highest team age, so it wasn't a young group. Nevertheless, the Nats went big in free agency, adding Patrick Corbin and Brian Dozier, among others. The end result: the first championship in franchise history.