What is the state of your favorite Major League Baseball franchise? How hot, or not, is it? How can you even go about putting a number on such a thing?
The sentiment a fan of any team has from year to year will be heavily influenced by not just the results of the most recently completed season, but also how that season fits into the context of the past several years. Emotion-fueled attitudes don't change overnight.
If you root for a team that has been going well, then a down season might not turn you sour on it right away. You might grow a little concerned about things falling apart, but for now, the longer track record of success gives you hope the bad season was just a blip. This is probably an apt description of Cardinals fans right now, whose reliably solid team sunk to last place in 2023.
On the other end of the scale, if your team has gone a number of years without sniffing .500, one season in the 81-to-85-win range isn't going to eliminate skepticism. This is where Marlins fans are now.
But if that 80-something-win season of improvement is followed by a true breakout, all of a sudden things seem merry and bright. This is where Orioles fans are after their team ended an epic string of losing in 2022 by sneaking over .500, then followed that up with triple-digit wins in 2023.
This is the dynamic we seek to capture for every team today, by assigning each franchise a temperature, measured in Fahrenheit degrees, which takes a literal view of the concepts of the hotness or coldness of a franchise. Is your team close to boiling over? Is it suspended in a deep freeze? Or is it stuck somewhere in the comfortable, but unexciting, middle?
We've ranked all 30 MLB teams by this new number -- which we're calling franchise temperature -- as we head into 2024.
(What is franchise temperature? Click here for our methodology.)
1. Houston Astros (195.6°)
2023 change: -5.4° (90 wins, lost in ALCS)
10-year change: +153.8° since 2014
Franchise peak: 201.0° in 2022 (won second World Series in six years)
Franchise nadir: 31.5° in 1978 (17 years, no postseason berths yet)
The Astros' fortunes have turned around remarkably over the past 10 seasons, and had the Astros returned to the World Series, they might have become the first franchise to reach the boiling point since the 2012 Yankees. Alas, their 90-win American League West title and ALCS loss to Texas wasn't enough to offset the year-to-year cooling built into the system. Still, Houston remains in striking distance of boiling if the Astros can return to their pennant-winning ways in 2024.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (169.8°)
2023 change: -6.1° (100 wins, zero in the playoffs)
10-year change: +92.4° since 2014
Franchise peak: 222.5° in 1966 (momentum started in Brooklyn topped out with third pennant in four seasons)
Franchise nadir: 21.6° in 1938 ("Dem Bums" finished sixth or worst for 10th time in 14 seasons)
Given the state of the Dodgers' current offseason, their decade-plus streak of high-level winning and spate of disappointing postseasons, it'll be really interesting to see where their temperature climbs in the years to come. But they have to come through in October if they are going to reach the level of the Koufax/Drysdale teams from the 1960s. Had they capitalized on 100-plus win seasons in each of the past three campaigns, they might be there already.
3. New York Yankees (145.5°)
2023 change: -9.2° (82 wins, no postseason)
10-year change: -50.8° since 2014
Franchise peak: 399.6° in 1962 (the last of the Mantle-era champs)
Franchise nadir: 27.2° in 1918 (no Ruth, no pennants for Highlanders/Yankees yet)
No franchise is likely to achieve the kind of dynasty the Yankees sustained across five decades. The game has changed in so many ways it's almost unfair to compare current teams to the Ruth-DiMaggio-Mantle behemoths. More relevant to the mood of current Yankees fans is that 10-year dip, which reflects the onset of too many mediocre campaigns and the ongoing pennant drought. The Yankees still have that epic winning season streak going, but their current temperature is the lowest it's been since 1997.
4. Atlanta Braves (132.7°)
2023 change: -1.3° (100-win season, one playoff win)
10-year change: +39.1° since 2014
Franchise peak: 174.0° in 1999 (third pennant in five years for Smoltz, Glavine, Maddux & Co.)
Franchise nadir: 13.2° in 1945 (last of an 11-season run in National League's second division)
The Braves have lost a smidgen of heat since their 2021 World Series title despite back-to-back 100-win seasons entirely because those epic regular seasons were both punctuated with one-win postseason efforts. But a 100-win campaign in 2024 that translates into another title would put Atlanta at the apex of a franchise that has meandered from Boston to Milwaukee but has seen its most sustained success during its nearly six-decade run in Atlanta. Alex Anthopoulos has been hard at work this winter to make that happen.
5. Boston Red Sox (128.9°)
2023 change: -13.0° (second straight last place, 78-win season)
10-year change: -34.6° since 2014
Franchise peak: 216.7° in 1918 (last of four World Series wins in seven years)
Franchise nadir: 25.6° in 1966 (why the 1967 "Impossible Dream" team was so special)
Boston has been over 100 degrees every season since snapping the franchise's title drought in 2004. The 2018 title put the Red Sox at 185.5, within striking distance of the Speaker-Ruth dynasty of the 1910s. Three last-place finishes in the seasons since then have cooled things off considerably. It's nothing another title couldn't solve. Also, incidentally, note that the Red Sox's peak and the Yankees' nadir both register as 1918. Guess which team Ruth was with at that point?
6. St. Louis Cardinals (114.9°)
2023 change: -11.6° (first last-place finish in 33 years)
10-year change: -66.3° since 2014
Franchise peak: 235.8° in 1946 (fruits of baseball's first farm system at their ripest)
Franchise nadir: 18.2° in 1920 (believe it or not, the St. Louis Browns -- 17.5° -- were even colder)
The Cardinals' temperature has declined each season since their 2013 pennant, which put them at 187.3 degrees. Last season was the first collapse season, but between that and the pennant was a lot of second-tier success, a run marked by a number of win totals in the 80s and low 90s. Those solid, unspectacular seasons were followed by little postseason success. So while their fans can look at 2023 as a fluke, St. Louis has been not been truly elite for a while now.
7. Texas Rangers (99.6°)
2023 change: +56.0° (jumped from 68 to 90 wins, won World Series)
10-year change: +27.7° since 2014
Franchise peak: 99.6° in 2023 (if Chris Young and Bruce Bochy have their way, it's only going to get better)
Franchise nadir: 20.0° in 1988 (second straight sixth-place finish and still eight years away from first postseason appearance)
Each season in this system, there is one team -- and one team only -- that tacks on at least 50 degrees to its season-starting temperature: the team that wins the World Series. There have been 119 World Series champs and of those, just 18 have ended that title season with a temperature under 100 degrees. The list of those teams (think the 1914 Miracle Braves and the 1969 Amazing Mets) is a who's who of baseball's greatest Cinderella clubs. The Rangers don't quite feel like a Cinderella team, but they are the 18th team on that aforementioned list. In winning the franchise's first Fall Classic, the system recognizes what Rangers fans have been feeling all winter -- that this is as good as it's ever gotten for this franchise. The Rangers are one of two teams whose 2023 campaign puts them at their franchise apex.
8. San Francisco Giants (99.5°)
2023 change: -10.0° (no playoffs for sixth time in seven years)
10-year change: -85.9° since 2014
Franchise peak: 219.5° in 1924 (last of four straight pennant winners for Little Napoleon)
Franchise nadir: 32.0° in 1985 (franchise's only 100-loss season)
The state of the Giants has degraded steadily since Bochy led the club to the third of three titles in five years in 2014. The years since then have seen just four playoff wins and only one season of 95 wins or more, the 107-win campaign of 2021. Bochy's third title put Frisco at 185.4 degrees, within range of John McGraw's franchise peak. Alas, last season's tepid 79-win season dropped the Giants below 100 degrees for the first time since 2008.
9. Philadelphia Phillies (94.0°)
2023 change: +7.0° (third straight winning season, 19 playoff wins over last two years)
10-year change: -4.5° since 2014
Franchise peak: 125.8° in 2011 (franchise record 102 wins, but went down in NLDS)
Franchise nadir: 4.2° in 1948 (a bad team but with Robin Roberts, Curt Simmons, Del Ennis and Richie Ashburn, things were about to turn)
The Phillies were once one of the least successful franchises in American sports, a reality reflected in this system. Not only do the Phils own the lowest temperature in the history of the metric, they were remarkably frigid during almost the entirety of the first half of the 20th century and beyond. Despite a spasm of success here and there, the Phillies were at freezing or below in every season from 1924 to 1966 and didn't creep above room temperature until they won their first title in 1980. Since then, it's been up and down, but, either way, it's been a long time since we've thought of the Phillies as perennial losers. A rapid decline followed the last of the outstanding clubs from the 2000s, peaking in 2011, but two straight postseason runs have warmed things up considerably. That climate figures to hover over Citizens Bank Park for years to come.
10. Tampa Bay Rays (91.2°)
2023 change: +1.8° (fifth straight postseason appearance, though last three netted just one win in total)
10-year change: +27.6° since 2014
Franchise peak: 91.2° in 2023 (99 wins, franchise record run total, bupkis in the playoffs)
Franchise nadir: 30.4° in 2007 (team's first 10 years yielded high-water mark of 70 wins)
Over the last six years, the Dodgers, Astros and the Braves are the only teams to surpass the Rays' total of 511 wins. Given the Rays' economic handicap (and to the extent they are internally or externally induced), it's a remarkable thing. But their stuff hasn't translated that well in October since Tampa Bay's 2020 pennant and, over the last two years, has resulted in two runs scored over four playoff games. For now, this marks the Rays as a second-tier franchise, albeit one that is ostensibly at its apex right now.
11. Washington Nationals (74.6°)
2023 change: -7.5° (a few more wins but .500 is still a ways off)
10-year change: +36.4° since 2014
Franchise peak: 109.5° in 2019 (first ever title for the Expos/Nats franchise)
Franchise nadir: 17.1° in 2011 (sixth straight losing season)
Since the system awards room temperature for a franchise's first season, and doesn't make distinctions in the scale of losing -- you either have a winning season, or you don't -- it's forgiving to expansion teams during the early parts of their existence. That's intentional, as we are trying to avoid over-penalizing teams for not existing. It's also why the nadir for the Expos/Nationals doesn't fall until 2011 and the wretched early Mets teams from the 1960s don't show up as rock bottom for that franchise. So for the Nationals, it's been a rollercoaster, hitting rock bottom in the year before Bryce Harper arrived and reaching their zenith in the year after he left. After a four-season fall-off from the 2019 title, it's time to start climbing that mountain once again.
12. Chicago Cubs (72.5°)
2023 change: -1.8° (back on the right side of .500)
10-year change: +47.2° since 2014
Franchise peak: 180.6° in 1910 (fourth 100-win season in five years for Tinker to Evers to Chance clubs)
Franchise nadir: 14.4° in 1983 (fifth straight finish in fifth place or worse, but prelude to resurgence)
The Cubs' breakout during the middle of the last decade topped out at 96.9 degrees after the 2017 season, which added onto the 2016 drought-breaking World Series title to position the franchise for a long-overdue return to elite status. But a string of mediocre seasons since then has cooled Wrigley Field down to room temperature. That makes the Cubs the current "meh" franchise of the majors, a label they aren't going to shake if their inactive offseason to date doesn't pick up soon.
13. Arizona Diamondbacks (70.1°)
2023 change: +28.2° (squeaked into the playoffs and then got hot)
10-year change: +5.8° since 2014
Franchise peak: 125.6° in 2001 (Big Unit, Schilling and an unexpected early title)
Franchise nadir: 42.0° in 2022 (things never froze over in the Sonora)
The quick success of the early Diamondbacks teams kept things tepid in Phoenix for quite awhile. Alas, a lack of consistent regular-season success or any postseason runs gradually cooled things down. That is, until last October, when a young 84-78 team of Snakes made it all the way to the franchise's second ever World Series and first since its fourth year of existence. Now things get really interesting, because if Arizona can take that last step in 2024, it will put the franchise very near its long-gone apex.
14. Cleveland Guardians (69.3°)
2023 change: -7.0° (team's worst record in 11 years)
10-year change: +19.7° since 2014
Franchise peak: 101.9° in 1954 (a team so good it made the Yankees a 103-win also-ran)
Franchise nadir: 10.7° in 1993 (22nd losing record during the 25-year history of the four-division era)
The 1954 pennant winner, which won 111 games, has stood as the standard in Cleveland for a very long time. In fact, those post-war Cleveland teams were a kind of pre-playoff expansion dynasty, a franchise that would have boiled over had the Stengel-era Yankees not retained a near-annual hammerlock on the AL pennant, the only playoff slot then available. Only twice since has Cleveland subsequently neared the summit of those great Feller-Lemon-Doby teams. The first group was the mashing Jim Thome-Manny Ramirez teams of the 1990s, which topped out at 89.8 degrees. Then the 2016 team, which came so close to snapping what is now the longest active title drought in the sport, hit 82.4 degrees. Since then, it's been lukewarm in Cleveland, a trend that shows little sign of abating.
15. Oakland Athletics (56.5°)
2023 change: -5.7° (112 losses were franchise's most in 107 years)
10-year change: -13.7° since 2014
Franchise peak: 207.1° in 1914 (last of the great $100,000 infield teams, dropped to 109 losses one year later after a complete teardown)
Franchise nadir: 9.8° in 1967 (the last of the Kansas City teams left town at the lowest of points)
There are a lot of unique things about the history of the Philadelphia/Kansas City/Oakland/Las Vegas Athletics, not the least of which is the franchise's propensity for so often occupying the polar ends of the competitive spectrum. Ever since Connie Mack founded the franchise so long ago, the A's have usually been very good or very bad, but seldom in between. Obviously the last two years -- 214 losses -- have landed on the very bad side of the scale. The question: Will the eventual shift to Vegas heat things up before temperatures drop to Kansas City-era levels?
16. Milwaukee Brewers (54.6°)
2023 change: +2.2° (division title but nothing doing in playoffs)
10-year change: +19.1° since 2014
Franchise peak: 70.4° in 1982 (led by Young, Molitor to franchise's only pennant)
Franchise nadir: 15.4° in 2004 (Brewers' 12th straight losing season)
Since we're not allowing the inaugural season gift of 72 degrees to stand as a franchise peak, the title-less Brewers still have never reached room temperature in more than a half century of existence. There have been some good teams over the years, but the Brewers have never enjoyed the kind of breakout season, ending with a World Series win, that their predecessors in Milwaukee (the Aaron-era Braves) enjoyed. They've seemed on the cusp of having that season at times in recent years, but now that the game's best manager has skipped town, we'll have to see where things go from here.
17. Toronto Blue Jays (54.2°)
2023 change: +2.3° (third straight season in 89-to-92-win range)
10-year change: +7.4° since 2014
Franchise peak: 162.2° in 1993 (second straight World Series win)
Franchise nadir: 44.6° in 1982 (expansion club putting finishing touches on quick contender)
Over the last 26 years, the Blue Jays have won between 80 and 93 games 18 times. That's a pretty solid record of stability, but Toronto has been able to parlay that consistency into just 10 playoff wins during that time, with zero pennants or titles. Thus the trendline has been more or less flat ever since things cooled down from Toronto's back-to-back titles in the early 1990s. The clock is ticking on the current edition of the Blue Jays to see whether they can finally move up from the high end of the mediocre zone on the competitive spectrum. By the way, the Blue Jays' record low (44.6°) is the highest of any franchise.
18. Kansas City Royals (51.9°)
2023 change: -5.2° (seventh straight losing season, with 106 losses the most so far)
10-year change: +1.9° since 2014
Franchise peak: 121.6° in 1985 (franchise's first title)
Franchise nadir: 15.1° in 2012 (negative run differential for 18th consecutive season)
How do you superheat a franchise that is frozen solid? A pennant (2014) followed by a championship (2015) will do just that. Those winning Royals teams went from 18.7 degrees to 106.4 in just two seasons. Things can get chilly fairly quick as well, and if Kansas City doesn't show signs of life soon, it'll be back down to freezing at some point in the next five years. Imagine the plight of the 10-year-old Royals fan from 1985, who only knew good teams and got to go to a championship parade. That fan then watched their team degrade steadily for the next 27 years. So if you're a fan of franchise like Toronto or Milwaukee -- franchises that aren't bad, but seem stuck in the middle -- just know it could be worse.
19. Minnesota Twins (48.6°)
2023 change: +6.1° (division title and broke 18-game playoff losing streak)
10-year change: +5.8° since 2014
Franchise peak: 115.6° in 1991 (85-win champ in 1987 fell to last place in three years, then won another title)
Franchise nadir: 11.3° in 1961 (Senators moved to Minneapolis just in time for the low point, but things were about to get much better)
Minnesotans are comfortable with temperatures in the 40s and 50s, but that doesn't mean they don't appreciate the occasional warm up. The Twins went 18 seasons between playoff wins, a stretch during which they won five division titles. That's hard to do. Last season marked real progress, but can that build into some real momentum now that they are (once again) in payroll reduction mode? Incidentally, the high point of the Senators era was 97.7 degrees in 1925, Washington's second straight pennant winner. Walter Johnson & Co. remained the kings of the franchise hill all the way until 1991, when the Kirby Puckett-led champs knocked them off.
20. New York Mets (47.4°)
2023 change: -4.8° (fell under .500 despite coming off 101 wins and owning MLB's highest payroll)
10-year change: +8.2° since 2014
Franchise peak: 104.3° in 1973 (only 82 wins but "Ya Gotta Believe" Mets ended up in second Fall Classic in five years)
Franchise nadir: 39.2° in 2014 (sixth straight season between 70 and 79 wins)
Yes, those first Mets teams are fondly remembered as some of the most gloriously horrible clubs in baseball history. But since we granted them the standard 72-degree starting point, they only cooled to 40.5 before erupting for the 1969 World Series crown. A second pennant in 1973 put the Mets at a zenith that not even the Gooden-Strawberry champs of the 1980s could quite reach. Those teams would have established a new standard with another pennant but, alas, 1986 turned out to be it in that regard. The post-title Mets have since been mired in the tepid waters of mediocrity far too often.
21. Chicago White Sox (41.0°)
2023 change: -4.1° (once-promising rebuild devolved into 101-loss debacle)
10-year change: -15.5° since 2014
Franchise peak: 122.0° in 1919 (the team that will live in infamy)
Franchise nadir: 16.6° in 1950 (after the Black Sox scandal broke in 1920, the ChiSox didn't finish above third place again until 1957)
The White Sox have been stuck in the 30s and 40s ever since cooling down from their 2005 World Series championship. Things warmed up during the very brief resurgence of 2020 and 2021, but that netted just two playoff wins. And now, once again, the temperature is dropping. Chicago and its new baseball honcho, Chris Getz, have three years to avoid falling below freezing for the first time this century.
22. Detroit Tigers (39.1°)
2023 change: -3.9° (ninth straight season without a playoff appearance)
10-year change: -47.5° since 2014
Franchise peak: 125.1° in 1945 (even the Yankees couldn't win the pennant every year and, for a decade, when they didn't, it was the Tigers who filled the void)
Franchise nadir: 21.7° in 2005 (franchise worst five-year stretch features 502 losses)
The Tigers are trying, but they've been in cooling mode for a full decade at this point, putting them at their lowest point since 2005. In 2006, Detroit broke out with 95 wins and a pennant, kicking off a mostly successful decade-long run. Things have been icy since then, and after yet another losing campaign in 2023, Tigers fans will now celebrate the 40th anniversary of their 1984 champs while wondering when, or if, their team will ever win another World Series. This is a franchise that really could use a leap forward kind of season but, at least, the current team does look promising.
23. Baltimore Orioles (38.2°)
2023 change: +7.2° (team went from 52 to 83 to 101 wins over a three-year span)
10-year change: -3.9° since 2014
Franchise peak: 165.0° in 1983 (franchise's third title comes near end of streak of 24 winning seasons in 26 years)
Franchise nadir: 5.0° in 1959 (only the St. Louis Browns' wartime 1944 pennant kept the franchise from spending more than half a century below freezing)
The Orioles were over 100 degrees in every season of the 1970s and 1980s. The franchise had never reached that level of consistent success before then, nor have they subsequently gotten back there. Obviously, despite a marked uptick over the past two years, Baltimore remains a long way from 100 degrees. Getting there is simple: Win 95 or more games and parlay that into a championship. Simple, right? Well, it's not, of course, but given the trajectory of the Orioles right now, it's also not impossible.
24. San Diego Padres (37.5°)
2023 change: +1.7° (second straight winning season but no playoffs)
10-year change: +9.7° since 2014
Franchise peak: 65.4° in 1970 (a bad team still riding the benefit of the doubt the system gives expansion teams)
Franchise nadir: 17.2° in 2019 (ninth straight losing season during stretch of one playoff win over a 21-year period)
The Padres are a sneakily futile franchise. You don't think about it because they've had legends on their rosters, from Ozzie Smith to Dave Winfield to Tony Gwynn to a number of their current stars. But San Diego has never really strung together consistent success, which is why the Padres have never climbed even to room temperature. They have finished under .500 in 36 of their 55 seasons, own just two pennants and have never won the World Series. When that first championship comes, it will put the franchise at a level it's never before approached.
25. Miami Marlins (35.3°)
2023 change: +4.2° (second winning season and playoff appearance in four years)
10-year change: -15.8° since 2014
Franchise peak: 118.2° in 2003 (second title in seven years sandwiched around five losing seasons)
Franchise nadir: 31.1° in 2022 (fourth season in five years of 93 or more losses)
Talk about a low bar: Last season's 84-win campaign and wild-card appearance made this the fourth most successful season (according to this system) in the Marlins' 31-year history. Despite two recent winning seasons, Miami is working on a 13-year streak with a negative run differential, so the Marlins have not arrived yet. After a head-scratching shakeup in the front office, the 2024 season is pivotal. The Marlins have to prove that, as a franchise, they aren't going to descend back into the abyss in which they have almost always dwelled.
26. Seattle Mariners (35.1°)
2023 change: +2.0° (third straight winning season but no playoffs)
10-year change: +6.3° since 2014
Franchise peak: 65.4° in 1978 (second year of existence, so not a real peak)
Franchise nadir: 20.7° in 1990 (14th straight losing season before franchise finally put a winning ballclub on the field in 1991)
The Mariners' history is a bit enigmatic. Like the Padres, they've never gotten to room temperature. For Seattle, it's a matter of never having won a pennant, much less a title. And of course there have been long gaps between playoff appearances, with none from 1977 to 1994, or 2002 to 2021. There has only been one season at the 95-win or better level, but that was a doozy -- the 116-win team of 2001. Unfortunately, that epic season didn't end with a pennant, so this very much remains a franchise still trying to climb to its peak.
27. Los Angeles Angels (34.0°)
2023 change: -3.4° (14th straight season without a playoff win)
10-year change: -41.1° since 2014
Franchise peak: 92.4° in 2009 (97 wins marked sixth playoff appearance and 90-win season in eight years, beginning with 2002 title)
Franchise nadir: 22.6° in 1977 (second to last non-playoff season for franchise, which took 18 years to finally get there)
We've written some variation of this so many times by now that you almost don't register it consciously anymore, but it's still one of the more mind-numbing facts in baseball history: Mike Trout has never played on a team that won a playoff game. This offseason certainly doesn't feel like one that's brought him closer to rendering that declaration obsolete. If Trout sticks with the Angels for the duration, he might end up as a Hall of Famer on a franchise that managed to hit its nadir with him aboard.
28. Cincinnati Reds (31.9°)
2023 change: +2.3° (third winning season in four years but just missed the playoffs)
10-year change: -9.6° since 2014
Franchise peak: 187.5° in 1976 (102 wins, second straight title, the apex of the Big Red Machine)
Franchise nadir: 19.8° in 1917 (fourth place but turnaround already in motion, with title coming just two years later)
There may never be another Reds team that reaches the heights of the Bench-Rose-Morgan behemoths, but at least it's a high standard for every edition of Cincinnati team that comes down the pike. And the current one is really promising. It would be very surprising if the 2024 Reds don't push the franchise above freezing. From there, it really gets fun.
29. Colorado Rockies (25.2°)
2023 change: -2.5° (franchise record 103 losses, fifth straight losing season)
10-year change: -12.0° since 2014
Franchise peak: 67.4° in 1995 (winning record and first ever playoff appearance)
Franchise nadir: 25.2° in 2023 (fall from 2018 playoff club has been steep)
OK, the real peak for the Rockies -- and, we promise, no mountain-related puns are in the offing -- was 2007, when Colorado won its lone pennant. Alas, that breakout didn't offset all the poor seasons that led up to it. The Rockies haven't often strung together success. There has been only one stretch of three or more .500 seasons (1995 to 1997). There has never been a title or even a first-place finish. During the 17 seasons seasons since the pennant, the Rox have won just three playoff games. And so the team known for the altitude in which it plays has never been lower. Right now, there doesn't seem to be a floor for how low things might get.
30. Pittsburgh Pirates (18.7°)
2023 change: -1.9° (14-win jump but fifth straight losing season)
10-year change: -7.4° since 2014
Franchise peak: 135.4° in 1979 (one of decade's best teams caps 1970s with World Series win)
Franchise nadir: 12.1° in 2012 (record 20th straight losing season)
The Pirates fell two games short of the World Series in 1990, then came within a game of the Fall Classic in 1991 and 1992. That's eight playoff wins in three years and, at the time, it was a massive disappointment in the Steel City, a feeling intensified when Barry Bonds subsequently bolted for the Giants in free agency. As bad as they felt then, how would they have felt had they known this future: In the 31 seasons since Bonds left, Pittsburgh has won three playoff games. And it seems to be getting ever colder at one of baseball's prettiest ballparks.
Methodology: What is franchise temperature, anyway?
Our franchise temperature metric is inspired by the concept developed by Bill James, which measures how hot (or not) a team or hitter is at any point during a season. The franchise temperature approach uses a similar method to consider teams through the lens of season over season success, or lack thereof.
To get there:
1. The starting point for each franchise is 72 degrees Fahrenheit, or room temperature, for its inaugural season, which cannot be anointed as either the franchise's peak or nadir in this system. From there, each season's beginning temperature is 90.85% of the previous season's total. That enigmatic-looking standard was calibrated so that the overall average team temperature since 1901 falls at exactly 72 degrees.
2. Starting with that season-beginning total, teams warm up with degrees based on what they accomplish during the season. Non-playoff teams with losing records earn nothing -- they are in cooling mode. More successful teams earn five degrees for posting a winning season, but also get a three-degree bonus if they hit 95 wins per 162 games. (Ninety-five wins is the level at which more than half of teams historically have finished in first place -- 55% to be precise.) Teams earn two bonus degrees for a postseason berth, plus one degree for each postseason win. The largest bonuses are 15 degrees for a pennant, and 25 degrees for a championship.
3. The different weights given to these bonuses were calibrated so that high-level recent success can heat up a franchise pretty quickly. But no matter how hot you are, you can dip down to chilly temperatures fairly quickly if you don't avoid a string of losing seasons. Sustained consistency -- whether it's in the form of winning or losing -- is a major factor in this metric. But even more important is getting into the postseason and doing something once you get there.
4. The all-time high franchise temperature is a scalding 399.6 degrees, set by the 1962 Yankees, who boiled over thanks to a 40-year spree during which the Bombers won 25 pennants and 20 World Series. On the flip side, the all-time low temperature is an arctic 4.2 degrees, set by the 1948 Phillies, who over a 16-year span finished in the second division of the NL in every campaign, lost 100 or more games six times and finished seventh or eighth (out of eight) 14 times. Both of those extreme clubs illustrate how quickly things can change. Four years after their apex, the Yankees tumbled into last place in the AL. Two years after their nadir, the Phillies won the NL pennant.
5. The distribution of this metric from team to team is set up to be wide, so that teams can approach both boiling and freezing points -- 212 degrees and 32 degrees -- respectively. But rest assured: In the aggregate, dating to 1901, the average is room temperature, a nice, pleasant 72 degrees.