The deal: Braves acquire LHP Chris Sale from Red Sox for IF Vaughn Grissom, cash.
The Atlanta Braves had been mostly an under-the-radar player this offseason since their 104-win season ended with a second straight NLDS exit in October. But Atlanta made some major noise Saturday, acquiring seven-time All-Star stater Chris Sale in a deal with the Boston Red Sox that adds to one of baseball's most formidable rotations.
Boston, meanwhile, landed some needed infield help a day after signing veteran starting pitcher Lucas Giolito to a two-year contract. Sale waived his no-trade clause to consummate the deal that ends an injury-filled seven-year stay in Boston.
Let's grade the trade:
Braves: Atlanta GM Alex Anthopoulos is doing what it takes to get the playoff roster he wants. Atlanta's offseason really comes down to that. That being the case, it'll be around 10 months until we know how the plan has worked. For now, on paper, it's looking awfully good.
While the Dodgers have been busy remaking their roster with star-studded free agency splurges that total well over a billion dollars in future payroll, Anthopoulos has been targeting marginal additions by using some of the more frenzied and aggressive trade strategies we've seen from an exec in some time.
Now, when we describe an addition as "marginal" that can be read as derogatory but it really shouldn't be. In baseball, when the difference between clubs on similar competitive tiers is small, you never know when a marginal upgrade can be a tipping point move. When you make a lot of marginal upgrades, as the Braves have over the past two months, the difference is huge.
No move that Anthopoulos has made so far this hot stove season has more marginal upside than this one. The Braves, who entered the day second only to the Super Dodgers according to ESPN BET futures, are getting very close to having a perfect playoff roster -- on paper (and before baseball happens).
Here's why we can think of this trade as a marginal move for the Braves: Marco Gonzales. Allow us to explain.
Atlanta entered the offseason with the makings of a playoff rotation already in house. That group was led by the fine veteran trio of Spencer Strider, Max Fried and Charlie Morton. The depth of the group was bolstered by a mix of young pitchers who are either on the rise or have enjoyed enough recent success to qualify as bounce-back candidates. Among the pitchers that fit these broad descriptions are Bryce Elder, Dylan Dodd, AJ Smith-Shawver and, when he's fully rehabbed from Tommy John surgery, Ian Anderson. There are also prospects who might help next season as well, such as Darius Vines and 2023 first-round pick Hurston Waldrep.
Anthopoulos made his one free agent splash by adding even more rotation depth, signing Reynaldo Lopez (who can also relieve), and has additionally lengthened the depth chart with veteran Triple-A depth in Taylor Widener and Zach Logue. It was a mix that screamed for one more dependable veteran starter to raise the floor and stabilize the innings outlook.
When Anthopoulos swung a deal with fellow trade addict Jerry DiPoto for LF Jarred Kelenic, he also took on lefty Gonzales, along with 1B Evan White. Gonzales seemed like the right guy to fill that end-of-the-rotation veteran role, especially if the surgery he underwent in August addressed the injury that might have accounted for his performance drop-off. Now we know that Anthopoulos had larger aspirations than acquiring an injury-bounce-back candidate.
Gonzales was flipped to the Pirates, though the Braves are still on the hook for more than $9 million of his 2024 salary. Sure, the Red Sox are picking up a sizable chunk of Sale's pact, but when you tack the residual from Gonzales, this is very much a salary slot worthy of a bedrock starting pitcher. At his best, Sale has been that and a whole lot more -- but it's been a while since he has pitched at that level.
Since the beginning of the 2021 season, Sale has posted a 3.93 ERA over 151 innings; Gonzales is at 4.21 over 376⅓. They are very different pitchers and the per-inning gap widens when you factor in playing venues, but, still, you can see how we're talking about a marginal upgrade here, especially given the difference in volume.
That is, unless you think about it through the prism of Sale as a member of the October rotation next to Strider, Fried and Morton. And if you think of him as the flexible fireballer who closed out the Red Sox's 2018 championship by mowing down the Dodgers' trio of Justin Turner, Kike Hernandez and Manny Machado. That's the guy, or at least some close approximation of him, whom Anthopoulos is acquiring -- the guy who can be a difference maker amid the razor-thin margins of playoff baseball.
This kind of maneuvering has been the consistent theme of the Braves' winter. Target what you want and don't worry about the money or the talent it takes to get that player. Getting Kelenic meant taking on the money for White and Gonzalez. Both were flipped in subsequent trades.
Among other moves, Atlanta dealt five useful players for a lefty reliever in Aaron Bummer. They took on dead money by trading for and waiving Matt Carpenter, just to add a hard-throwing reliever in Ray Kerr to bolster the bullpen depth. The Braves' winter has been stuffed with moves like this, all aimed at upgrading the roster beneath the Braves' layer of top-line talent, which is among the best in the majors.
The Braves are an organization that is very much swimming in gravy, with riches in revenue and talent alike. Anthopoulos has leveraged all of that into moving around money and players as if roster building was a game of Tetris, which it kind of is. We can really only judge this dizzying spree by what the final product looks like and we're not there yet. And we may not be there until October. Right now though, it's looking very promising.
In dealing the sweet-swinging Grissom, 23, in this trade, Atlanta comes out under water in any pragmatic valuation of the deal. For one thing, he's good and, for another, he has less than a year of MLB service time on his tab. Sale, on the other hand, has a pricey club option for 2025, one that could be converted into a guarantee if he has a big enough 2024 season that he ends up in the top 10 of Cy Young balloting, according to Cot's Contracts. Alas, the Braves' may need to limit his innings -- and potential awards candidacy -- in order to make sure he's at his best in October, so 2024 is almost certainly a walk year for him.
The trade does open up a hole on the Atlanta depth chart, as Grissom -- an infielder with the flexibility to play in the outfield when needed -- seemed like the righty complement the Braves' outfield rotation needed. Now it still needs that player, especially as a righty companion for the lefty-vulnerable Kelenic.
Atlanta's winter is still not quite done, and if the offseason to date is any indication, it'll be fascinating to see how Anthopoulos goes about putting the finishing touches on this potential masterpiece.
Braves grade: A-
Red Sox: This deal was too good for Boston to pass up, if only because of Grissom's tantalizing combination of youth, defensively flexibility and low service-time count. In the near term, he figures to slot into the starting second base gig for Boston, next to shortstop Trevor Story.
Grissom is a strong candidate to hit .300 with Fenway as his home park, given his track record to date, while providing a threat on the bases. His contact and line-drive ability fits the M.O. of what the Boston offense has done best in recent seasons. It should be a lot of fun to see some kind of lineup configuration featuring Grissom, Masataka Yoshida and Jarren Duran setting the table for Rafael Devers, Tristan Casas and Story.
Longer term, Grissom fits into a deep middle infield group with Story (who can opt out after 2025) and a number of prospects, especially Marcelo Mayer and Nick Yorke. Then you have Casas and Devers on the corners, and Bobby Dalbec also still around. It's shaping up as a strong group, especially because Grissom won't have to play much shortstop, if any, and he has struggled with the glove at that position.
Alas, the short-term rotation depth chart suddenly looks very different, with newbie Lucas Giolito and 2023 standout Brayan Bello leading the unit. Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock all move up a notch in the pecking order with Sale's departure. While there are depth options (Kutter Crawford, etc.) on hand, Boston likely needs to add someone else, whether it's via another trade or a free agent splurge.
Still, this is a nice bit of juggling on the part of new Red Sox honcho Craig Breslow, one that potentially fills an everyday lineup hole at second base for a few years. Whether the loss of Sale will sting in 2024 depends on how he pitches -- and how Breslow maneuvers from here.